Is Obama prepared to talk about inequality bluntly and directly?

Any mainstream American politician wishing to discuss the country’s widening wealth gap typically has to couch their language carefully to avoid being labelled a socialist. “Expanding middle-class opportunity” and similar euphemisms for social mobility are typically as far as Obama or his staff will go, rhetorically at least. But the tax proposal pre-released over the weekend has an overtly redistributive tone that suggests a stiffening of presidential resolve.

Ever since Democrats lost November’s midterm election, Obama seems less worried what his critics think and more determined to cement his political legacy. As the US’s richest 0.1% approach the same level of wealth as the bottom 90% put together – a gulf not seen since the 1930s – will its president finally declare war on plutocracy?

Will he come off the fence on police violence?

One of the biggest disappointments for Obama’s progressive supporters during an otherwise bold few months has been that America’s first black president has been surprisingly reticent to speak on the controversy over police killings of unarmed African American men (and children) in Ferguson, Ohio, Cleveland and New York. Perhaps scarred by the backlash that followed his emotional intervention after the death of Trayvon Martin, the former law professor in the Oval Office has been careful not to pre-empt official investigations or directly criticise the police.

But several months have passed since this spate of deaths with – as far as many campaigners are concerned, at least – little sign of justice for the victims. Does Obama finally give the speech on race that many who voted for him expected to have heard by now?

Does he downplay foreign policy?

Unlike many State of the Union speeches, there has been relatively little advance leaking of the White House message on foreign policy. Critics would suggest this could be because the message is not a terribly palatable one. The much-trumpeted withdrawal from Afghanistan looks more and more like a messy retreat; exiting Iraq proved only temporary. Obama does have a big message to convey to Congress, which is threatening to derail his nuclear talks with Iran by voting to authorise new economic sanctions, but he chose to air that subject during David Cameron’s visit last week and it is not exactly gripping material for a prime-time television audience.

On the other hand, Obama needs to demonstrate he is not turning his back on the world after his diplomatic blunders in responding poorly to terrorism in Paris. Does he dare leave out the rest of the world from his speech?

Will he give Hillary Clinton any tacit endorsement?

The forthcoming Democratic primary is looking less and less interesting the more that Republicans queue up to vie for their party’s 2016 nomination. Hillary Clinton has never looked more of a shoo-in, as talk of competition from Senator Elizabeth Warren succumbs to her continued denials and gaffe-prone Joe Biden looks less than serious, even as vice-president. The trouble for Clinton, however, is that an uncontested coronation will do little to fire up her base ahead of the real contest against whoever emerges from the Republican pack.

There is little love lost between the Obama White House and Hillary’s camp, but several key advisers, such as John Podesta, are already making the move across and it won’t help Obama’s legacy if Republicans win the next presidential election. Does he start to make more overt gestures of support ahead of Hillary’s anticipated declaration later this spring? Even a hint of praise for her time as secretary of state, for example, would go a long way to shoring up unity on the progressive wing of a Democratic party that is still uncomfortable about a processional primary.

Will he pull a rabbit out of the hat?

Even by the standards of modern political messaging machines, an unusually large portion of this year’s State of the Union seems to have been trailed in advance: from cyberterrorism and broadband, through to college tuition and tax reform. In a long speech, there is always plenty of room for surprises, though.

Going on the list of guests in the first lady’s box, it could be anything from a new mission to Mars or a major new initiative on gun violence and policing. More likely is that the president doubles down on his declared theme of economic mobility and outlines an even longer wishlist of policies he believes will help kickstart the American dream.

This still has the power to shock if he can describe how he can achieve meaningful change despite Republican intransigence – much as he managed in recent months with executive action on immigration reform, climate change and rapprochement with Cuba. Without such a magic wand, the speech may feel long on rhetoric and short on action.