Investors are bracing for more choppy trading on financial markets in the final run-up to the EU referendum after Brexit jitters knocked the pound to a seven-week low, dented share prices and fuelled demand for safer assets such as bonds and gold.
With opinion polls tight and less than two weeks to go before the vote, sterling came under pressure and it was down more than 1% against the US dollar at one point on Friday. In late afternoon trading the pound was worth $1.43.
“The opinion polls are as close as they’ve been for the entire campaign. And while the phone polls still show a lead for remain, with the online polls much closer and significant doubts about the reliability of all polls whatever the methodology, financial markets remain very jittery about the possibility of a ‘leave’ win,” said economists at Daiwa Capital Markets in London in a note to clients.
For stock markets, worries about the 23 June referendum compounded fears of a global economic slowdown, falling oil prices and next week’s Federal Reserve meeting on US interest rates. The FTSE 100 index of blue-chip stocks suffered its biggest one-day drop since mid-February and closed down 1.9% at 6,115.8.
It was a similar picture around the world. As investors reacted to the cocktail of concerns by dumping stocks for bonds, Wall Street was down markedly at the time of the London close. In Germany the Dax stock index dropped 2.5% on the day and France’s Cac 40 fell 2.2%.
In a sign of investors’ nervousness, gold prices climbed to a a three-week high. The precious metal has long been seen as a safe investment in uncertain times and in the last week gold has climbed 2% to $1,269.8 an ounce.
Economists at the consultancy Capital Economics said the gold price appeared to be tracking the odds of Brexit. Other commodities were also being influenced by the approaching poll.
“A UK vote to leave the EU ... would presumably have a negative impact on global business and investor confidence and hence undermine the prices of industrial commodities. On the other hand, it should boost demand for safe havens, including gold whose price could easily jump to $1,400 per ounce in the event of a Brexit vote,” they wrote in a research note.
Amid rising risk aversion, government bonds were in high demand. Bond yields, which move inversely to bond prices, set new record lows around the world. On many government bonds the yields are now in negative territory, which means investors are technically paying for the privilege of lending to a government.
In Germany, yields on the 10-year “Bunds” dropped to a new record low on Friday of 0.022% and there was speculation they could hit zero and maybe even dip into the red.
“Negative rates are increasingly becoming the benchmark against which investors judge prospective returns, hence the lack of hysteria in the last couple of weeks as 10-year German bund yields have fallen to within a whisker of zero percent,” said Chris Iggo, head of fixed income at AXA Investment Managers.
Yields on Bunds and other government bonds have been falling on the back of Brexit worries but also on expectations that the US Federal Reserve will delay an anticipated increase in interest rates. The central bank meets next week having hinted at a June rate rise and then more recently suggested there was too much uncertainty to act this month. That followed news of a sharp slowdown in US job creation in May.
James Knightly, economist at ING Bank, said: “The Fed will probably want to see at least two decent jobs figures before pulling the trigger on higher rates. This means we continue to favour the September ... meeting for the next rate rise.”
Yields on UK government bonds, known as gilts, also hit all-time lows on Friday, albeit in thin volumes as traders hung back from taking any big bets ahead of the tight referendum. The 10-year gilt yield dropped to 1.213% at one point, the lowest on record.