“FTSE 100 and sterling plummet on Brexit vote” read one headline in the hours after the UK’s referendum result was confirmed. Then a few days later: “FTSE 100 defies Brexit turmoil and hits 10-month high”.
Confused? You might well be. In the wake of Brexit, readers – of the Guardian and other outlets – found themselves facing a barrage of often conflicting headlines when it came to the markets and economy.
The UK has no shortage of economic indicators, from official data to business surveys and polls of consumers. There are also volatile market indicators like the pound and the FTSE 100 share index. Day to day, journalists cover the indicators they deem to be most reliable and relevant. But this wealth of economic news doesn’t all tell the same story – especially in times like these – which means an effort by reporters to be thorough can leave readers overwhelmed.
As one friend said to me: “I just want to know what the hell is going on.”
The Guardian Brexit watch series, a monthly overview of key economic indicators, was born from these frustrations. We noticed that early attempts to pull out important trends and illustrate them with charts and simple explanations were getting strong traffic online and playing well on social media. Readers and colleagues seemed hungry for articles that helped them work out what to make of it all.
The series is a monthly snapshot of what we know so far on the pound, stock markets, inflation, economic growth, government finances, the jobs market, consumer spending and house prices. We have also given ourselves room to flag up interesting pieces of economic news that don’t fit into that monthly schedule – in November, that was soaring manufacturing costs as the weak pound raises import prices.
In addition, two former Bank of England policymakers, David Blanchflower and Andrew Sentance, give their – usually quite different – views on the data we report each month.
The series will continue as the Brexit process unfolds. We will next publish on 21 December – six months on from the Brexit vote.
The story so far has been one of the economy defying gloomy predictions of a post-referendum slump. But there are also signs that higher inflation is on the way. As negotiations over the UK’s future position in Europe kick off in earnest we expect more gyrations on financial markets. Businesses may well rein in their investment and hiring plans.
Then again, previous predictions on the post-referendum world have proved wrong so far. The Guardian Brexit watch series gives us a chance each month to take stock of where things stand and, we hope, gives readers the information to draw their own conclusions.
