And that’s a good moment to stop. Thanks for reading and commenting. GW

It’s always interesting to see which press conference clips the ECB choose to plug over twitter....

How longer might the eurozone experience record low interest rates, currently set at zero percent?

Lena Komileva of G+ Economics reckons they could last for at least another year, and possible rather longer.

She writes:

The ECB kept its forward guidance on interest rates and asset purchases, namely that interest rates are expected to remain at their “present levels for an extended period of time, and well past the horizon of our net asset purchases” and that “we stand ready to increase our asset purchase programme in terms of size and/or duration”.

With no changes to the ECB’s policy sequencing (QE vs rates) under discussion, the guidance now means that rates will not be raised until after the end of asset purchases, which is likely to be late 2018 or early 2019 at the earliest.

European stock markets have ended the day higher.

The FTSE 100 gained 0.6%, or 42 points, at 7,398. Germany’s DAX gained 0.67%, while France’s CAC rose by 0.25%.

The euro is bobbing around the $1.20 mark too, up almost one euro cent today, following the news that the ECB has started discussing how to tackle its stimulus programme.

Joshua Mahony of IG says:

Draghi managed to keep the euro gains relatively contained today, with the talk of extremely accommodative policy dampening early gains for the single currency. With Draghi due to set out his stall for how the ECB will embark of its QE tapering in October, the big question is whether tapering will begin in 2017 or 2018.

Marilyn Watson, head of global fundamental fixed income strategy at BlackRock, predicts that the ECB will end its QE programme by next December.

Given the currency bloc’s improving fundamental backdrop and recent impressive data releases, particularly in Germany, not to mention the shortage of supply of bonds to buy, we believe that the ECB will fully taper its asset purchase programme by the end of 2018.

Adrian Hilton, head of global rates and currency at Columbia Threadneedle Investments, says Mario Draghi was more relaxed than some investors expected today:

At its present level, at least, he doesn’t seem to think the euro threatens the medium term inflation objective.”

“As it is, we think this leaves the ECB on track to taper its asset purchases from the start of next year, although we may have to wait until the October meeting – or maybe longer – to see the details. Were the euro to push on towards the 1.25 level versus the dollar, however, the bank may find itself trapped between a disinflationary exchange rate and a need to phase out its QE purchases before it runs out of bonds to buy.”

Mario Draghi’s comments about the euro are significant, says Ranko Berich, Head of Market Analysis at Monex Europe.

“Draghi acknowledged that the euro’s explosive strength this year is a source of uncertainty and worth monitoring.”

Meanwhile in Athens, French president Emmanuel Macron has begun talks with Greek prime minister Alexis Tsipras.

In his first hour of official contact with Greece’s head of state, the French leader praised Athens’ austerity reforms and repeated calls for the indebted country to finally be given debt relief.

Meanwhile, anti-austerity groups, including breakaway militants from Tsipras’ Syriza party, have announced they will defy a ban on demonstrations and take to the streets in protest against the mass sell-off of state assets around which much of the visit will focus.

The far leftists, many members of the Popular Unity party, have called the ban - part of draconian security measures in the capital - an insult against “the democratic freedoms of the Greek people and first of all the right of peaceful protest.”

“Popular Unity will not be disciplined by government and police arbitrariness ... Greece is not for sale. Workers are not, and will not, become slaves.”

The demonstration will take place around 6pm local time - ahead of Macron outlining his vision for Europe in a speech from the ancient Pnyx.

Neil Wilson of ETX Capital has helpfully fired over this neat list of the key points from the ECB’s press conference:

• ‘Bulk’ of QE decisions to be taken at October meeting
  
• EZ growth stable and broad based - GDP outlook revised up to 2.2% in 2017, best growth since 2007
  
• Medium-term inflation projections revised lower chiefly due to euro appreciation
  
• Measures of underlying inflation have ticked up but remain at very subdued levels
  
• Broad ‘dissatisfaction’ with inflation, but this is tempered by confidence that inflation will eventually converge with target
  
• Most members reiterated worries about exchange rate pressures first raised by some policymakers at the last meeting
  
• Appreciation of euro has ‘unquestionably’ led to tightening of financial conditions
  
• ECB monitoring euro exchange rate, but doesn’t seem overly concerned about overshoot at present. (Could change if EURUSD hits $1.25?)
  
• Interest rates will remain at present levels well past end of QE finishes; ECB still stands ready to increase the QE programme in terms of size and/or duration
  
• No discussions on scarcity of bonds (seems unlikely), Draghi says ECB has repeatedly shown it can cope with scarcity issue
  
• Draghi keen to stress that patience is needed, wont ‘experiment’ with interest rate forecasts
  
• Draghi reiterated need for structural reforms to be substantially stepped up
  
• ECB not resigned to permanently low inflation, expects convergence with target sooner or later
  
• EURUSD rises above 1.20 handle to retest August’s 2 ½ year highs
  

Wilson adds:

“Mission largely accomplished: Mario Draghi successfully guided the market to expect a tapering announcement in October without sounding hawkish.

And finally, a question from a journalist from German newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung.

Q: Do you have any information about the negative side effects of the quantitative easing programme that you can share with us?

“The negative side effects of the quantitative easing programme” repeats Draghi slowly, perhaps aghast at the very suggestion that his precious scheme might not be an unmitigated triumph.

We simply don’t see any side-effects, he insists, and any potential side-effects are vastly overwhelmed by the positive effects of the bond-buying scheme.

And that’s the end of the press conference.

Q: What decisions do you think will be taken about your QE stimulus scheme in October?

We discussed a set of different scenarios today, Draghi replies.

They centred on the different lengths and sizes that the bond-buying programme could run at, and the ‘trade offs’ between those two factors.

In other words, the ECB is starting to talk about how much money it might want to pump into the economy from January 2017, and for how much longer it might be needed.

Q: Your inflation forecasts only run up until 2019, but what do you think will happen in 2020?

I expect we will meet all our targets in 2020, smiles Draghi - without mentioning that his term will have expired by then.

Asked about Emmanuel Macron’s economic plans, Draghi says France’s labor market reforms should aim at the “elimination of dualism”.

That’s the issue where new hires have weaker labour rights than long-serving workers, so they are laid off when a recession hits.

Q: Why is monetary policy so loose, when the economy is on track to grow much faster than in recent years?

Mario Draghi points to the “big labour market slack” to justify today’s record low interest rates.

He adds that the ECB doesn’t have a “dual mandate” like the Federal Reserve, so it can’t consider issues like unemployment. It just has to focus on price stability.

Q: What does Mr Draghi think of Estonia’s plans to launch its own state-backed cryptocurrency?

No eurozone country can launch its own currency, Draghi insists.

Q: Should we just accept that eurozone inflation won’t get back to the ECB’s target?

Not at all, Draghi replies. We just need ‘confidence, patience and persistence’ while the recovery in the economy feeds through to prices.

Now a question about the future of the eurozone.

Q: What powers should any future eurozone finance ministry have?

Member states have realised how incomplete our monetary union is, and how it made the eurozone crisis worse than it would have been

We should welcome that they’ve started this ‘complex’ discussion, says Draghi. We’re ready to help, but we’re not part of it.

Q: Are you concerned that the euro is trading above the levels at which your forecasts were drawn up ($1.18)?

I don’t know how much it’s trading, Draghi replies, before peeking at a note from his communications director, Christine Graeff....

... I’m told its $1.20, well OK, but I don’t comment on exchange rate levels anyway.

A journalist tries to lure the ECB president into commenting about the euro’s strength, by asking ‘professor Draghi’ to comment on when a strong currency becomes a problem.

I don’t comment on the exchange rate, Draghi replies firmly. I left university a long time ago, longer than I care to remember.

Draghi now denies that the eurozone is in a period of high uncertainty while the ECB plots its next move.

We’re simply discussing what to do next year, when our present programme expires, he adds.

Q: Do you take national government issues into account when deciding how and when to taper QE?

We act according to our mandate, Mario Draghi replies.

Q: So the German elections aren’t a factor?

No.

The euro has soared over $1.20, gaining more than 1.2 cents to $1.2040.

Speaking of batting balls away....

The bulk of our decisions about our asset purchase programme will be taken in October, Draghi says, in response to another question about QE.

Q: So will we get a full roadmap in October, saying how you might reduce the pace of the programme. Have you a personal preference?

I don’t, smiles Draghi, batting this ball safely away.

Q: And have you discussed the issue of bond scarcity?

No, says Draghi, We’ve shown we can cope with this issue successfully.

Putting on his serious voice, Draghi declares that the implementation of structural reforms needs to be stepped up. That’s a nudge to Europe’s politicians to do their bit.

Draghi sound cautious on inflation, saying that ‘core inflation’ has yet to show a convincing pickup.

Headline inflation could turn negative towards the end of the year, he adds.

That could be a signal that the ECB is taking a dovish view, and will be reluctant to tighten monetary policy. But the euro is rising...to $1.1992 (up 0.7 of a cent today).

Boom! Draghi says that the ECB will decide on the “calibration” of its policy beyond 2017 later this year.

That confirms that the governing council hasn’t made a decision on how to taper its stimulus programme yet.

Despite the recovery, the eurozone still needs a “very substantial degree of monetary support”, Draghi continues.

Hello! Draghi says that ECB is watching the euro’s volatility carefully, as it is a source of uncertainty.

ECB president Mario Draghi begins his press conference by reading out today’s statement (details here).

He says that ECB’s outlook for the eurozone economy is “broadly unchanged”; a “broad-based” recovery is underway across all countries and sectors.

It’s Mario time....

Reuters correspondent Francesco Canepa reckons the strength of the euro deterred the ECB from tightening monetary policy today....

City traders will now be scrambling for a quick sandwich before the main event of the day, Mario Draghi’s press conference in 30 minutes

Although today’s statement was unchanged, Draghi could still surprise us when he’s asked about the ECB’s thinking around its stimulus programme.

Plus, we’ll get those new inflation and GDP forecasts.

Fred Ducrozet of Pictet bank suspects that Draghi will reveal that ECB staff are working on possible QE changes.

Kerim Derhalli, CEO and founder of investing app Invstr, says the ECB was right to leave interest rates on hold.

“The ECB is conscious of lagging inflation rates and will not want to see a further rise in the Euro for fear of stifling economic recovery, which is largely driven by Germany’s export performance”

Today’s statement from the European Central Bank may sound curiously familiar. But don’t worry, it’s not a case of deja vu.

The ECB has simply repeated July’s statement, while taking the time to tweak the date.

The ECB also says that it expects to leave its interest rate at their present levels “for an extended period of time, and well past the horizon of the net asset purchases”.

That’s not a change of policy, though.

European stock markets are still up, too:

With the ECB’s decision just moments away, the euro is up 0.5% against the US dollar at $1.1975.

Here’s a reminder of what the markets are looking for from the ECB today:

1) What’s the QE plan? Traders want to hear clues about how the ECB will handle its bond-buying programme beyond December. Currently it is buying €60bn of bonds per month; will we hear plans to taper it in January?

2) Will Draghi express any concern about the strong euro? Famously the exchange rate isn’t a formal target, but that might not prevent the ECB president pointing out that a higher exchange rate can push down inflation.

3) What are the new staff forecasts? ECB economists have been beavering away for weeks, drawing up new growth and inflation projections. They should influence (but not dictate) how the ECB plots its actions over the next few months.

4) Will it change its QE parameters? Put simply, the ECB is running out of bonds to buy, having energetically stimulating the eurozone economy since early 2015. A rule change could give it more leeway to buy debt from certain countries.

Tensions is mounting....

Emmanuel Macron has touched down in Athens to begin his visit to the Greek capital...

Higher still and higher goes the euro....

That means there’s further to fall if the ECB fails to make any new decisions on its stimulus programme today.

Here’s a chart showing the eurozone’s economic recovery:

Matt Simpson, senior market analyst at Faraday Research, warns that the euro could tumble if Mario Draghi is more cautious than expected today.

He writes:

We don’t expect Mario to come out swinging today, but it may only require a tweak of CPI projections, casual reference of a high Euro or hint that QE normalisation talks are underway which could whip markets into a frenzy.

If ECB were to downgrade economic projections, it would be in line with Draghi’s doubt that Europe’s reflationary run remains self-sustainable. Markets would likely take this as strong clue that QE normalisation is pushed well back into 2018 and Euro could find itself under remarkable pressure.”

The euro is continuing to rise against the US dollar, as traders wonder whether the ECB will take a decision on tapering its stimulus programme today.

Surprise! British house prices rose by a positively perky 1.1% in August, according to the Halifax’s monthly survey.

That’s the highest reading in eight months.

However, prices are still only 0.1% higher over the last quarter as a whole, following a decline in June.

The annual rate (a better measure) came at +2.6%, compared to 2.1% a month ago. It touched 10% back in 2016, before tailing off recently.

Newsflash from Sweden: The Riksbank has left interest rates unchanged at their current record low of -0.5%.

European stock markets have opened a little higher, with the FTSE 100 gaining 11 points or 0.15%.

The euro is creeping higher in early trading, up 0.2% to $1.1935, as traders await news from the ECB.

This table from ING shows how the euro could react to today’s decisions.