Newsflash: Takeda has confirmed that it has approached Shire with a takeover bid -- but its advances was rejected.

In a statement to the City, the Japanese pharma firm says it suggested buying Shire for £46.50 per share -- £17.75 in cash (US dollars) and £28.75 of new Takeda shares.

However, Shire’s board rejected the proposal.

However, this story isn’t over! Takeda says that discussions between the two sides are ‘ongoing’, suggesting another offer could come before next Wednesday’s deadline.

Takeda insists that it will “remain disciplined” over any formal offer -- a nod to Shire shareholders not to expect the moon on a stick.

As previously stated, Takeda intends to maintain its well-established dividend policy and investment grade credit rating.

Takeda also argues that merger with Irish-headquartered Shire would make sense:

Building on Takeda’s existing momentum, the acquisition of Shire would accelerate its transformation and result in a global, value-based, R&D-driven biopharmaceutical leader headquartered in Japan, with a balanced geographic footprint, a robust, modality-diverse pipeline and enhanced financial strength.

Russia has launched an attempt to win compensation over America’s new tariffs on steel and aluminium.

Moscow has filed an official complaint to the World Trade Organisation, arguing that the 25% tariff on steel, and 10% on aluminium, are ‘safeguard measures’ - ie, designed to protect the US economy, not for national security.

That’s an important distinction - as major exporters can ask for compensation under WTO rules if they are penalised by such safeguards.

As Russia puts it:

Although the United States presented the measures at issue as being adopted to address the threat that imports of steel and aluminium pose to the US national security, they are in essence safeguard measures, and the Agreement on Safeguards and Article XIX of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade 1994 (GATT 1994) are applicable to them.

The United States did not provide notification under paragraph 1(c) of Article 12 of the Agreement on Safeguards on taking a decision to apply the safeguard measures to the WTO Committee on Safeguards.

The Russian Federation is a WTO Member that has a substantial interest as exporter of the products subject to the safeguard measures. Therefore, the Russian Federation requests consultations with the United States under paragraph 3 of Article 12 of the Agreement on Safeguards and paragraph 2 of Article XIX of the GATT 1994.

So, Russia now joins China, India and the EU in opposing these tariffs:

Lisa Hooker, consumer markets leader at PwC, says the 1.2% fall in retail sales last month is disappointing - but there are some reasons for optimism:

“With snow and rain right through March including in the critical run up to Easter, it’s no surprise that shoppers avoided the high street. So, while online retailers benefited to some extent, last month’s retail sales were particularly disappointing.

“Footfall was significantly impacted by the weather, and the first of retailers’ spring/summer fashion and home product ranges would have been of little consolation to shoppers looking to stay warm.

“But, it’s not all doom and gloom. This week, we’ve already seen evidence of wages growing in real terms as inflation has eased. Moreover, our most recent survey* shows that consumer sentiment is recovering and is higher than it was both in December and this time last year. This is particularly true of younger people, with more under 45s saying they think they’ll be better off next year.

Keith Richardson, managing director retail sector at Lloyds Bank Commercial Banking, also blames the icy blast of grim weather for keeping shoppers off the streets.

“While Mother’s Day and an early Easter provided some respite for retailers in March, the impact of two Beasts from the East was brutal.

“The high street felt the worst of the chill as shoppers simply stayed at home to avoid the snow. But it wasn’t just the weather to blame.

“Fashion clearly suffered as nobody wants to buy spring clothing during a blizzard, even from the comfort of their sofa.

Economist Rupert Seggins says the retail sector will have a slight negative impact on growth in the last quarter:

Economics journalist Dharshini David says the weak spending figures might deter the Bank of England from raising interest rates next month:

Newsflash: UK retail sales suffered an unexpectedly sharp fall last month, as the Beast from the East hit the sector.

Sales volumes fell by 1.2% on March, much worse than the 0.5% which economists had expected.

The Office for National Statistics blames bad weather for the decline - backing up what Debenhams reported this morning.

The figures also show that Britain has suffered its weakest quarter for retail sales in a year, with volumes down 0.5% in January-March.

The ONS says:

• In the three months to March 2018 (Quarter 1), the quantity bought in retail sales fell by 0.5% when compared with Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2017, with declines in all sectors except for department stores and non-store retailing.
• The month-on-month growth rate fell by 1.2% due to a large fall of 7.4% from petrol sales; a likely consequence of adverse weather conditions, which impacted travel.
• Department stores were the only sector to show positive growth in March at 0.8%, with feedback from retailers suggesting that online offers for Mothering Sunday and Easter boosted internet sales more than usual during the adverse weather.
• The quantity bought in supermarket stores declined in March, while specialist food stores saw strong growth; possibly due to the easier access to these stores during snow.

Reaction to follow...

Over in the City, shares in Debenhams have slumped by 10% to its lowest level since the 2008 financial crisis.

Traders are unimpressed by its latest financial results, showing an 85% slump in pre-tax profits and a warning that full-year earnings will be lower than many brokers expected.

The company also blamed the ‘Beast from the East’ for hitting sales in March, saying it had to close almost 100 stores as icy, snowy weather gripped the UK. That followed on from a disappointing Christmas, which had already prompted a profits warning in January.

Debs says it is accelerating its “Debenhams Redesigned” strategy - an attempt to boost digital sales, cut costs, and lure more customers through the doors by billing shopping as a “fun leisure activity”.

But...finance director Matt Smith isn’t hanging around to see the results - he’s moving to Selfridges.

The rubber price has, umm, bounced by 5% today, after China announced temporary anti-dumping measures on imports.

The measures will affect halogenated butyl rubber imported from the United States, European Union and Singapore, Reuters reports

Oil isn’t the only commodity to rally today.

Nickel has surged by 9% this morning, hitting its highest level since December 2014.

That follows reports that Russian mining firm Norilsk Nickel could be caught up in US sanctions against Moscow.

That could have serious consequences for manufacturers, as nickel is a key component in rechargeable batteries used in mobile phones and electric cars, for example.

Earlier this month the US imposed sanctions on aluminium-producer United Co. Rusal. That has caused drama in the commodities markets, with aluminium up another 5% today.

Bloomberg explains:

Consumers, manufacturers and traders are scrambling to secure supply cut off by Rusal, the largest aluminum producer outside China. Aluminum reached a six-year high and nickel jumped the most intraday since 2009. Alumina, a raw material needed to make aluminum, notched a fresh record.

“It really is unprecedented in terms of the turmoil it’s unleashed,” Robin Bhar, a metals analyst at Societe Generale SA, said by phone from London. “It’s amazing to watch.”

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.

The oil price is on a tear this morning, hitting its highest levels since late 2014 as stockpiles fall and worries about geopolitical tensions in the Middle East weigh on the markets.

Brent crude has crashed over the $74 per barrel mark this morning, following data yesterday showing a surprise drop in US oil inventories.

US crude (West Texas Intermediate) is also rising, hitting a three-year high of $68.95.

Last week’s US-UK-French military strikes in Syria have also pushed oil prices higher, amid worries that supplies from the region could be disrupted.

In addition, a Reuters report that Saudi Arabia is pushing for higher prices -- perhaps even $100 per barrel -- has caught traders attention. It may show that the Opec cartel will push on with its supply curbs, to keep prices buoyant.

Jasper Lawler of London Capital Group says:

Traders are starting to get excited that the oil market is finally rebalancing with the global supply glut evaporating.

Whilst it may be premature for the OPEC led group implementing supply cuts to cheer, the numbers are certainly pointing to a potential end in sight.

Also coming up today...

We get a new healthcheck on Britain’s retail sector, with sales figures for March released this morning. Economists predict that they fell by 0.5% month-on-month, as grim weather kept shoppers away from the high streets.

Michael Hewson of CMC Markets says:

Today’s retail sales numbers for March could shatter the perception of consumers feeling a little better about their spending habits.

So far this year consumers have been in a fairly cautious mood with retail sales in January and February rising 0.1% and 0.8% respectively. This morning’s March numbers could reverse all or most of these gains with expectations of a decline of 0.5%.

High street chain Debenhams, broadcaster Sky and pest control firm Rentokil are also reporting to the City.

The news from Debenhams isn’t great - pre-tax profits slumped by almost 85% in the last six months:

Sky has reported a 5% rise in like-for-like revenues, and are speaking to the press now....

The agenda:

• 9.30am BST: UK retail sales figures
  
• 1.30pm BST: US weekly jobless figures