Last week came the news that 1m jobs had been created since September 2013, and while it is an achievement that has seen the government crow loudly, a look at the data suggests that population growth and part-time work has been the main driver. It indicates that the achievement is rather less boast-worthy than the government would suggest.
Back at the end of 2012, Tony Abbott pledged to create 1m jobs in five years and 2m in 10 years. Last month marked more than 1 million more people employed since the 2013 election in September that year – meaning the government have beaten it by five months. This was a bit of a surprise, not because this is a stunning achievement, but because even a year ago it looked unlikely.
In May last year, the government was 16,000 jobs down on what they needed to be on track for 1m jobs in five years, and an annual employment growth rate of 1.8% was needed – but the 2017-18 budget was only forecasting growth of 1.5%.
The past year has seen such strong employment growth that the target was reached with time to spare:
But how significant is the achievement and how has it been achieved?
Back when Tony Abbott made the pledge in late 2012, I wrote that “while a million jobs sounds wonderful in a sound-bite kind of way, the reality is that achieving a million jobs over the next five years is easier than it was in 2001-2006, let alone in the mid-1980s. Clearly, Australia’s population continues to grow and thus a million new jobs ain’t what it used to be.”
And this has very much turned out to be the case.
One million jobs in five years is not an unprecedented number. It had happened in the late 1980s and during the mining boom from 2006 to 2011:
Of course the target is a tad easier now than then.
In early 1988 when 1m jobs in five years was first achieved, we had a population above 15 years of age of around 12.7 million. At the end of 2005 when it was next achieved, the population was up to 16.3 million. Now it is around 20 million.
It’s why the better measure of looking at employment has always been the employment to population ratio – as that takes into account population growth – whether it be natural or migration.
And here things are rather unimpressive.
In September 2013, 61.1% of the adult population was employed, now it is 62%. That 0.9% point increase is welcomed but hardly stunning – and certainly not over a five year period.
Consider that when 1m jobs were created from December 2000 to December 2005, the employment to population ratio rose from 59.1% to 62.1%.
Even more damming is that since September 2013 the percentage of adults employed full-time has actually fallen. At the time of the 2013 election, 43% of adults worked full-time, now it is just 42.4%.
That is a fairly clear representation of how uninspiring is the 1m jobs boast. Part-time employment makes up 31% of all employed, but it accounted for 47% of the 1m jobs created.
Even more divergent is the growth of full-time work for men – 43% of all employed are full-time men, but they accounted for just 25% of the 1m jobs:
This over-representation of part-time work among the employment growth has also led to a rather small growth in the average number of hours worked per capita since September 2013.
Back in September 2013 adults worked an average of 86.1 hours a month (this includes all adults, even those not in the labour market), now it is up to 86.7 hours – the highest level for five years, but still a rather weak level of growth given the overall increase in employment:
The big story however of the 1m jobs is not so much population or even part-time work, but female workers.
The growth of women in the labour force has been rather stunning. In September 2013, the participation rate of women was 58.6%; now it is 60.7%. By contrast the participation rate of men has fallen from 71.2% to 70.8%. And yet more than half of the increase in women’s participation has occurred just in the past 12 months:
Had the surge in women entering the workforce not occurred, the 1m jobs pledge would still be waiting to be achieved and would be unlikely to come true.
It took 41 months to get half way to the 1m total, and just 15 months to get the rest of the way – and 55% of the employment created in the past 15 months has been for female workers.
And as I have noted previously, the NDIS and other health care and social assistance work has been the main driver of that surge.
Once again showing that, despite the Liberal party’s protestation of the contrary, yes, governments can create jobs.
There has also been a strong growth in employment of people over 65 – up 33% since September 2013. Such workers also accounted for an oversized share of the 1m jobs – around 13%, despite accounting for just over 4% of the total workforce:
The addition of 1m jobs in under five years is something that the government will boast about, but it is pretty clear the large part of the increase is due to population increase and also a major increase in government funding for the NDIS which has created a surge in work in the healthcare sector.
The small increase in the percentage of the population employed compared to previous periods where 1m jobs had been created in five years demonstrates the mark was hardly shooting for the stars.
• Greg Jericho is a Guardian Australia columnist