Angela Monaghan 

UK house price growth moves off five-year low – as it happened

Annual house price growth ticked up to 1.9% in November, after hitting a five year low of 1.6% in October, says Nationwide
  
  

UK house prices grew by 1.9% in the year to November, moving off a five-year low of 1.6% in October according to Nationwide
UK house prices grew by 1.9% in the year to November, moving off a five-year low of 1.6% in October according to Nationwide Photograph: Bloomberg/Bloomberg via Getty Images

Time for a quick recap

UK house prices rose by 1.9% in the year to November, up from a five-year low of 1.6% in October according to Nationwide. On a monthly basis, prices were up 0.3%, but the lender said Brexit uncertainty has left the property market “relatively subdued”

In the US, the Department of Justice has filed criminal charges against Mike Lynch over the $11bn (£8.6bn) sale of the British software company Autonomy to Hewlett-Packard seven years ago.

Investors in Europe have been in a fairly gloomy mood, with the major indices down. The FTSE 100 has seen the worst of it, and is currently down 0.7% or 47 points at 6,993. All eyes will be on Presidents Trump and Xi who are both attending the G20 leaders summit in Argentina.

Eurozone inflation fell to 2% in November, from 2.2% in October, as the pace of energy and food price rises slowed. Meanwhile the unemployment rate in the region was unchanged in October at 8.1%.

There was bad news for Italy, after a revision of GDP figures showed the economy shrank in the third quarter by 0.1%. It was the first contraction since the second quarter of 2014.

And there was another major data breach, after Marriott hotels revealed information for 500 million guests might have been accessed.

That’s all for today, do join us again on Monday.

Marriott reveals major data breach

Marriott has revealed that the data of 500 million guests might have been exposed in a data breach.

The hotels group said reservations at its Starwood properties, which include the Park Lane Sheraton Grand, Westbury Mayfair and Le Méridien Piccadilly, had been affected.

The database in question held information including passport numbers, dates of births, names, addresses and phone numbers for 327 million guests. Payment card numbers and expiration dates were also stored for some. For the remaining guests affected, Marriott said “the information was limited to name and sometimes other data such as mailing address, email address, or other information”.

Adam French, consumer rights expert at Which?, said:

This data breach is on a colossal scale and it will be of great concern to Marriott customers. It is vital that Marriott provides clear information on what has happened and helps anyone who has been negatively impacted.

Anyone worried they could be affected should consider changing their online passwords, monitor bank and other online accounts as well as their credit report to guard against potential identity fraud. Also, be wary of emails regarding the breach, as scammers may try and take advantage of it.

US futures are down with a little over an hour until the opening bell on Wall Street:

  • Dow Jones: -0.5% or -131 points
  • S&P 500: -0.5% or -12.5 points
  • Nasdaq: -0.5% or -31 points

Jack Allen, senior European economist at Capital Economics, says the contraction in the Italy’s economy in the third quarter is worrying:

The second estimate of Italy’s GDP in Q3 showed that the economy performed even worse than previously thought. And while we know that temporary disruption in the car industry weighed on the economy in the third quarter, more recently the underlying pace of growth seems to have slowed.

The Q3 GDP data, which were revised down to show a 0.1% quarterly contraction, paint a worrying picture of Italy’s economy.

The economy seems to be losing momentum, and that is before higher government bond yields have really started feeding through to the private sector.

Our current forecast is that Italy’s economy will grow by about 1% in 2019, but the latest data suggest that even this meagre growth is probably too much to hope for.

UK house builders are among the biggest fallers on the FTSE 100, despite a small (0.3%) monthly increase in house prices in November.

Taylor Wimpey, Barratt, Berkeley and Persimmon are all in the bottom 10:

Former Nissan boss Ghosn detained for another 10 days

Carlos Ghosn, the sacked former chairman of Nissan, has been detained without charge for an additional 10 days at a Tokyo detention centre.

It follows his shock arrest nearly two weeks ago at a Tokyo airport over allegations of financial misconduct.

Italy's economy shrank in Q3

Over in Italy, figures show the economy shrank by 0.1% in the third quarter, revised down from a first estimate of zero growth.

Josie Dent, economist at the Centre for Economics and Business Research, says the European Central Bank will be in no rush to raise interest rates after today’s data:

While today’s eurozone data show that unemployment is low and inflation moved towards the target, other economic indicators highlight the many risks that the eurozone economy currently faces.

Factors including the Italian budget and rising levels of global protectionism mean that a rate rise from the ECB will not be on the table for some time yet.

Sticking with the eurozone, unemployment was 8.1% in October, unchanged from September.

There were 13.2m people out of work in the currency bloc last month, an increase of 12,000 compared with a month earlier.

The lowest jobless rate was in Germany, at 3.3%, while Greece still has the highest rate of unemployment, at 18.9%, followed by 14.8% in Spain.

Eurozone inflation falls to 2% in November

The annual rate of eurozone inflation fell to 2% in November, from 2.2% in October, according to the “flash” estimate from statistics office Eurostat.

It was bang in line with economists’ expectations, as energy and food prices rose at a slower pace this month than in October.

November has been the worst month for oil since the financial crisis, Garry White from Charles Stanley points out:

Brent crude is currently down 0.4% at $59.25 a barrel:

UK housing market 'stuck in low gear'

Britain’s housing market will remain subdued in the coming months according to the forecasting group the EY Item Club, as Brexit woes and squeezed incomes deter people from making major spending decisions.

Weakness in London - where buyers are finding themselves priced out of the market after years of steep rises - is dragging the national picture down, Item says. It expects UK house prices to rise by 2% this year and in 2019.

Howard Archer, chief economic advisor to Item, says:

We suspect that the housing market will remain stuck in low gear over the coming months.

The fundamentals for house buyers are likely to remain challenging. Consumers have faced an extended serious squeeze on purchasing power, which is only gradually easing. Additionally, housing market activity remains hampered by relatively fragile consumer confidence and a limited willingness to engage in major transactions.

Caution over making major purchases may well be magnified by current heightened uncertainties over Brexit. House buyers may also be concerned about further interest rate hikes over the coming months – even if they are likely to be gradual and limited.

All eyes on Trump and Xi at G20 meeting

Investors are closely watching events at the G20 meeting in Argentina, and particularly any developments in the US-China trade saga.

Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets, says the tensions between the world’s two largest economies are weighing on sentiment like a “dark cloud”.

He adds:

President Trump has already said he is close to a deal on trade with China, he’s just not sure that he wants to do it, which raised some optimism that some form of fudged compromise might come out of the weekend meeting between President’s Trump and Xi.

The Chinese foreign ministry has said this morning it hopes that the US can show sincerity and meet China halfway in talks. We shall see, but as the song says it takes two to tango, and it’s not immediately clear that the US wants to.

With expectations low, a positive outcome would be a pledge to delay the January increase in tariffs with a view to further discussions, a pledge to retain the current status quo, if you like. Further escalations would be unwelcome given the slowdowns we are already seeing in most global benchmark economic indicators.

FTSE leads European indices lower

European indices are red across the board this morning, as trade tensions between the US and China persist.

The FTSE is leading the falls, down 0.6% or 41 points. Weak manufacturing figures from China - which showed activity stalled in November - are also weighing on investor minds.

The scores so far:

  • FTSE 100: -0.6% at 6,998
  • Germany’s DAX: -0.5% at 11,241
  • France’s CAC: -0.4% at 4,985
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB: -0.2% at 19,121
  • Spain’s IBEX: -0.4% at 9,066
  • Europe’s STOXX 600: -0.4% at 357

Jeremy Leaf, a north London estate agent and a former residential chairman of the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors, says the Nationwide house price figures were better than expected given the backdrop.

They come on the back of encouraging mortgage approval and transaction figures yesterday which show, once again, that realistic buyers and sellers are taking advantage of very low mortgage rates and shrugging off Brexit concerns.

Looking forward, we don’t expect any major changes in the period leading up to Christmas unless our departure from the EU is finalised more clearly one way or the other but there is no doubt we are finding there is considerable pent-up demand awaiting more settled times.

Former Autonomy boss charged with fraud in US

Mike Lynch, the former chief executive and founder of Autonomy, has been charged with fraud in the US.

The charge relates to the $11bn sale of the firm to computer giant Hewlett-Packard in 2011, a deal which handed Lynch $815m. It is alleged that between 2009 and 2011, Lynch and other executives artificially inflated Autonomy’s revenues.

The charges include 14 counts of conspiracy and fraud and carry a maximum penalty of 20 years in prison.

The case was filed by the US Department of Justice in federal court in San Francisco on Thursday following a six-year investigation.

Stephen Chamberlain, a former Autonomy finance executive, has also been charged and Sushovan Hussain, the company’s former chief financial officer, was convicted on similar charges earlier this year and is seeking to overturn the ruling.

Lawyers for Lynch called the developments a “travesty of justice” according to a report by the FT and said the software entrepreneur would “vigorously defend the charges against him”.

Updated

Economists at Pantheon Macroeconomics believe the pick-up in UK house price growth won’t last long.

Samuel Tombs, the firm’s chief UK economist, says growth is likely to slow, even if a Brexit deal is struck:

Year-over-year growth in Nationwide’s measure of house prices stepped up from October’s five-and-a-half year low in November, but a further slowdown over the coming months looks likely.

The upside to prices in the event of a no-deal Brexit being averted is modest, given that the [Bank of England’s] Monetary Policy Committee likely would pick up the pace of interest rate increase next year.

High loan-to-income ratios mean house prices are extremely sensitive to the MPC’s next steps. So even in the event of a Brexit deal, we expect growth in the official measure of house prices to slow next year, to about 2% from 3.3% in 2018.

UK house price growth picks up from five-year low

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.

After hitting a five-year low of 1.6% in October, UK house price growth picked up to 1.9% in November according to Nationwide.

The average price of a UK home is now £214,044, after edging up 0.3% over the past month.

But Nationwide’s chief economist, Robert Gardner, says an uncertain economic backdrop is likely to weigh on demand in the coming months.

Looking forward, much will depend on how broader economic conditions evolve. In the near term, the squeeze on household budgets and the uncertain economic outlook is likely to continue to dampen demand, even though borrowing costs remain low and the unemployment rate is near 40-year lows.

If the uncertainty lifts in the months ahead and employment continues to rise, there is scope for activity to pick-up through next year. The squeeze on household incomes is already moderating and policymakers have signalled that, if the economy performs as they expect, interest rates are only expected to rise at a modest pace and to a limited extent in the years ahead.

Also coming up today:

  • Investors will be keeping a close eye on the G20 meeting of world leaders in Argentina, with a particular focus on any developments between the US and China
  • At 10am UK time, the “flash” estimate for eurozone inflation in November will be published , alongside unemployment data for the single currency bloc
 

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