Last year, George Soros was putting the boot into Donald Trump.

This year, he’s offering him advice, saying:

Instead of waging a trade war with the entire world, US should focus on China.

Soros says it would be a mistake to let Chinese mobile operators ZTE and Huawei “off lightly” [referring to concerns that they could allow Beijing access to Western networks].

Soros says:

If they dominated the 5G market, they would represent an unacceptable security risk to the rest of the world

If Xi and Trump were no longer in power, it could create an opportunity for cooperations between the two cyber superpowers, Soros concludes.

George Soros, the billionaire investor/philantropist, is giving a speech in Davos, at a private dinner.

And he’s kicked off with by warning that machine-learning and artificial intelligence are posing an “unprecedented threat” to open societies.

Soros says these technologies are now in the hands to totalitarian leaders and oppressive regimes, singling our China’s president Xi.

Soros declares:

Xi Jinping wants a one-party state to rein supreme....

He is the most dangerous opponent to those who believe in open societies.

Soros is singling out China’s social credit system; saying it will use algorithms to see if an individual “poses a threat to the one-party state”

The IMF’s David Lipton now warns that America’s central bank might not be able to take extraordinary measures in the next crisis, because the political environment has changed so much since a decade ago.

People have been hurt in the last crisis, Lipton says, and they don’t appreciate that we came along and cleaned up afterwards.

He fears there will be public anger if the next downturn is worse than a “garden variety” recession, and the Federal Reserve may be unable or unwilling to underpin the global economy.

Ten years ago, the Fed offered huge quantities of dollars to fellow central banks around the world, big and small.

Would they be so generous again? Lipton isn’t sure, saying:

I wonder if they’ll be politically able, and comfortable, extending swap lines as widely as they did last time.

We should be aware that the politics may contribute to the limitation of responsiveness, Lipton says.

From a policy standpoint, we need to be more careful to have sustained growth, not make errors, not let squabbles lead to problems, and make sure the next recession is only a garden one.

The discussion turns to China, and Mark Carney singles out concerns about the shadow banking sector.

He flags up wealth management trusts, which have invested trillions of dollars into bonds and other assets.

Chinese authorities are well aware of this, says Carney, and have been taking measures and addressing it.

These are substantial proportions of GDP in terms of assets, that don’t have the rock-solid guarantee in terms of the liabilities, that do have exposure...and have some echoes to some of the structures that grew up in the UK and the United States prior to the financial crisis.

The question of what goes back on the bank balance sheet, where there are losses.

Last summer Beijing stepped up the regulation of these wealth management businesses, fearing that they could undermine financial stability.

Mark Carney weighs in with a timely warning about complacency -- warning his audience that financial stability

Memories are short in finance, financial lobbies are powerful and success is an orphan in financial stability.

The more successful you are, the more people forget, so complacency is an issue.

Carney insists that the system is a lot stronger than before the last financial crisis.But he also singles out two concerns:

1) The Too Big To Fail rules brought in after 2008 have not been tested at scale yet.

Carney cites new types of bonds that provide capital when a bank hits trouble - giving bondholders “skin in the game”, which are meant to keep people disciplined. (These CoCo bonds haven’t been tested in a banking crisis yet).

2) Carney also cites the operational risk from cybercrime. Again, much work has been done, but there’s still a risk.

At some point, some core service or institution might be down for a while. What is the system going to do about it?

The introduction of GDPR privacy regulations last year caused some pain for companies...but Microsoft’s chief is a big fan.

Speaking earlier today, Satya Nadella argued that US citizens deserved the same protection for data misuse as Europeans.

Nadella argued:

“My own point of view is that it’s a fantastic start in treating privacy as a human right.

I hope that in the United States we do something similar, and that the world converges on a common standard.”

Greta Thunberg, the 16-year old Swedish climate change activist, is bringing her school strike campaign to Davos.

Thunberg will join local school children for a walkout on Friday, to highlight the need to urgently rein in global emissions and stick to the Paris Agreement.

Riding down Davos’s funicular railway, she tells me

“We need to hold the older generations accountable for the mess they have created, and expect us to live with.

It is not fair that we have to pay for what they have caused.”

Thunberg’s solo protest outside Sweden’s parliament last summer began when she skipped school for three weeks, later cutting back to just every Friday.

The move is now gathering support, with students walking out in other countries, and plans for a UK version on February 15.

Thunberg said she would like more students to join her strike.

“That would have a huge impact, but I’m not going to force anyone to do this.”

She believes parents should be supportive if their children tell them they’re striking on Friday.

“Everyone keeps saying that the young people should be more active, and they’re so lazy, but once we do something we get criticised.”

She’s also spoken to some big Davos names at a private lunch:

David Solomon, chief executive of Goldman Sachs is in Davos and has been speaking to Bloomberg TV.

He economists at the US investment bank believe there is a 50% chance of a US recession in 2020:

I think the US economy is in good shape. There is a possibility that as we get to the end of 2020 we see a slowdown, but it’s just as possible that growth will continue.

When you think about recessions ... there’s nothing obvious that stands out as, ‘hey that’s a big problem’, right now. But we’re always looking out for imbalances and we’ll see how things progress.

AM

Mario Draghi is holding a press conference following the ECB’s latest policy decision.

He says the risks to eurozone growth are now to the downside, largely because of the rise in protectionist policies and financial market volatility.

AM

Philip Hammond has come out strongly against a second referendum.

Speaking at the CBI’s annual lunch in Davos the chancellor says it is important for trust in the political system for the 2016 vote to be respected.

Even from the narrowest interpretation of business interests it would be a Pyrrhic victory to meet the needs of the economy but by shattering the broad economic consensus behind our country’s political and economic system.

Switching briefly to Frankfurt, the European Central Bank has just published its latest policy decision and has left rates unchanged, as expected.

Policymakers on the governing council reiterated the message that a hike was unlikely unless until at least after the summer.

At today’s meeting the Governing Council of the European Central Bank decided that the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will remain unchanged at 0.00%, 0.25% and -0.40% respectively.

The Governing Council expects the key ECB interest rates to remain at their present levels at least through the summer of 2019, and in any case for as long as necessary to ensure the continued sustained convergence of inflation to levels that are below, but close to, 2% over the medium term.

Read the ECB’s statement in full here.

AM

Back at the Arctic Basecamp, Greta Thunberg, the 16-year old Swedish climate change activist, tells delegates she spent last night in a tent at minus 18 degrees celsius.

Greta explains that she couldn’t turn down the invitation to Davos - for one thing, it’s an adventure.

Most people came here in private jets, and stay in hotels, but I came on a 20-hour train journey and slept in a tent, she says.

But it’s also a valuable opportunity to push her campaign, which began when she went on strike from school because Sweden’s government wasn’t doing enough on climate change.

Her message for Davos leaders:

I want to tell them that if we do not care about the climate crisis then no other issue will matter in the future.

This is what shapes the future.

Q: What reforms are necessary?

Dutch PM Mark Rutte: Trump is an opportunity.. to make use of his criticism of multilateralism and reform areas that need it.

There is an east/west divide in the EU on the refugee crisis. This needs to be addressed.

And north and south divides too. The commission not acting on Italy and it’s budget plans has notified the northern countries that while we’re playing by the rules, others are not. If Italy is getting away with it, why should we get our own house in order, I’m asked. It is creating a divide and mistrust.

Coming up shortly is a panel on “the new impetus for Europe”.

Philip Hammond was showing on the list of speakers this morning, but has since vanished...

The panel includes:

• Cecilia Malmstrom, EU trade commissioner
• Ana Botin, chair of Santander
• Klaus Schwab, WEF founder and chair
• Leo Varadkar, Taoiseach of Ireland
• Mark Rutte, Prime Minister of the Netherlands
• Mateusz Morawiecki, Prime Minister of Poland

AM

Angel Gurria, head of the the Paris-based Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, says he is confident that by next year a way will have been found to ensure the world’s tech giants pay more tax.

Countries can no longer politically afford to have these huge companies making billions in profits and paying next to nothing in tax.

Speaking to the Guardian, Gurria said that finding a way to tax the digital economy was the final stage in the OECD’s programme for tackling evasion and avoidance. By 2020 there would be a “road map” and an implementation plan for countries to adopt.

Gurria said a world in which big multi-national tech companies paid only a tiny amount of tax was no longer feasible.

Countries need the money and it has become politically unacceptable following the financial crisis. Even the tech companies understand that the time has come when they have to be part of the solution because otherwise countries will have to slam their face on the table and take non-negotiated decisions.

The OECD secretary general said there were a number of possible ways forward but the eventual plan would mean that companies would “be caught no matter what”.

Companies, he said, were able to exploit a lack of rules to avoid paying tax. “Countries have made it legal for companies to do tax gymnastics. What they are doing would be illegal for individuals.

What we are aiming for is a system that ensures there is no further abuse of what is legal but perhaps not right.

Sticking with Brexit for a moment, Airbus boss Tom Enders has launched a stinging attack on the UK government’s handling of the process, declaring it a “disgrace”.

The European aerospace group is one of the biggest manufacturers in the UK, where it employs more than 14,000 people at 25 sites. A further 110,000 supply chain jobs depend on its operations. The wings for all Airbus’ commercial aircraft are currently made in Broughton in north Wales, where 6,000 people work.

In a video message published this morning, Enders says:

Please don’t listen to the Brexiteers’ madness which asserts that because have huge plants here we will not move and we will always be here. They are wrong.

Of course it’s not possible to pick up and move our large UK factories to other parts of the world immediately. However, aerospace is a long-term business and we could be forced to redirect future investments in the event of a no-deal Brexit and make no mistake, there are plenty of countries out there who would love to build the wings for Airbus aircraft.

Read our full story here:

The former UK prime minister Tony Blair is in Davos and says the only way to resolve the current Brexit impasse is to go back to the British people with a second referendum.

It’s obviously a complete mess. There’s gridlock in parliament, we’ve had 30 months of negotiation. It’s still not clear really what the future relationship between Britain and Europe would be under what’s been agreed so far, and I don’t think there’s a majority in parliament right now for any proposition.

I hope as people go through the different options they will finally realise there is only one way of resolving this and that’s to put it back to the people for a final decision.

AM

Away from Davos briefly to the markets, which are pretty subdued across Europe this morning.

Wall Street closed higher on Wednesday after some upbeat corporate results in the US, but traders on the other side of the Atlantic today are in cautious mood as they await the latest policy decision from the European Central Bank, due at lunch time.

The scores in Europe so far:

• FTSE 100: -0.3% at 6,821
• Germany’s DAX: -0.2% at 11,054
• France’s CAC: -0.1% at 4,834
• Italy’s FTSE MIB: +0.5% at 19,505
• Spain’s IBEX: +0.3% at 9,157
• Europe’s STOXX 600: -0.03% at 355

Jasper Lawler, head of research at London Capital Group, sums up the mood on global markets:

Upbeat quarterly results from big names on Wall Street saw all three major US indices close higher. However, gains were capped by continued concerns over slowing global growth and the still unresolved trade issues.

The mixed sentiment resulted in a subdued session in Asia. Europe is also pointing to a lacklustre start to trading as investors look ahead to the ECB rate announcement and a possible end to the US government shutdown.

AM

Matt Hancock says he couldn’t look his children in the eye unless he was doing all he could to act on mounting resistance to antibiotics.

Britian’s health secretary is speaking in Davos to launch a five year plan of action.

“The urgency is now,” he says.

The focus will be on three areas: prevention, innovation and collaboration.

Prevention: The aim is to reduce resistant infections by 10%, and to cut the use of antibiotics by 15% - taking them only when absolutely necessary.

Everyone can play a part by only using antibiotics when they are really needed.

AM

Bruno Le Maire, the French finance minister, broke the news in Davos...

AM

Up in the mountains around Davos, climate change scientists at the Arctic basecamp will today urge world leaders to do more to rein in carbon emissions.

They’re holding a session with musician and environmental campaigner Ellie Goulding, along with former executive secretary of the UNFCCC and Mission 2020 convenor Christiana Figueres, and 16-year old climate activist Greta Thunberg.

They say:

Despite significant progress in the low carbon economy, scientific evidence in 2018 showed that emissions are again rising, and the sustainable target is 1.5C, not 2C as previously thought.

Furthermore, disappointing outcomes from the COP24 in Katowice did not raise ambitions to a level that will save the planet.

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the third day of the World Economic Forum.

“Brexit is like Groundhog Day without the happy ending,” bemoaned one senior UK economist last night, as anxiety over Britain’s exit from the EU continue to rattle Davos.

Chancellor Philip Hammond is in town, and understood to be breakfasting with around 30 business leaders this morning. He’s then speaking at the CBI’s traditional lunch, where he can expect a rough ride from chief executives who are watching the clock tick down to 29 March with growing exasperation and alarm.

So what’s UK PLC’s message to Hammond? “Just sort it”, says one City figure, who fears a six month extension would just mean six months more uncertainty and deadlock.

It’s not all work, of course - top bankers such as UBS’s Axel Weber rubbed shoulders with trade secretary Liam Fox and former Brexit secretary David Davis at a whisky tasting last night, organised by Aberdeen Standard.

But as a bagpiper played a dirge outside, City figures said they’re no more reassured about Brexit than at the start of the week. They’re looking to Hammond to push back against cabinet ministers who lean towards a no-deal Brexit.

Hammond is also due to appear on a panel at WEF this morning, to discuss Europe. He’ll be accompanied by EC trade commissioner Cecilia Malmström, Santander chair Ana Botín, Leo Varadkar, the Taoiseach of Ireland, Dutch PM Mark Rutte, and Mateusz Morawiecki, the prime minister of Poland.

Health minister Matt Hancock is announcing a new programme to fight antimicrobial resistance.

Last night, he told me that the issue was crucial: “Antimicrobial resistance, if we don’t get ahead of it, will mean that antibiotics can’t work, and the consequences would be devastating for the world. If these antibiotics cease to work - as they’re starting to cease to work - we won’t be able to live modern life as we know it.”

Bank of England governor Mark Carney is also making an appearance, to discuss whether the global financial architecture needs to change.

Here’s what’s on the agenda

• 8.10am GMT / 9.10am Davos time: UK Health Secretary Matt Hancock launches a five-year plan to tackle the global threat of antimicrobial resistance
• 8.30am GMT / 9:30am Davos time: A session with Sir Martin Sorrell, Executive Chairman of S4 Capital plc
• 9.45am GMT / 10.45am Davos time: Panel session on “the new impetus for Europe”, with Philip Hammond, Cecilia Malmström, Ana Botín, Leo Varadkar, Mark Rutte, and Mateusz Morawiecki
• 10am GMT / 11am Davos Time: Panel on ‘shaping the future of finance’ with Mark Carney and Christine Lagarde
• 10.30am GMT / 11.30am Davos time: Special Address by António Guterres, Secretary-General of the United Nations
• Lunchtime: Hammond speaks at the CBI’s annual lunch
• 2.30pm GMT / 3.30pm Davos time: Creating a fair and balanced tax system, with OECD chief Angel Gurria and Irish finance minister Paschal Donohoe.
• Finally, tonight, billionaire George Soros will be holding a dinner, and holding forth on the state of the world.