The latest release of the consumer price index figures yesterday by the Bureau of Statistics revealed that inflation growth remains well below the Reserve Bank’s target range and that the next move in interest rates will more likely be a cut than a raise. But whether this rate will come sooner or later depends on how much the bank wishes to spur economic activity, and for the past two years it has been content not to do so more than it already is.

In November last year, the Reserve Bank changed its forecast for inflation for the year ending 2018 from 1.75% to 2%. It shouldn’t have. The latest CPI figures released yesterday show inflation in 2018 grew by 1.8% – well below their expectations, a long way from the 2.25% growth rate it predicts by the end of this year, and once again below the RBA’s inflation 2% to 3% target range.

Actually, if we are honest, that target range is one of the biggest canards of Australian economics and finance. Publicly the bank will state that it does keep to the target, but the recent run of low inflation growth attests that it really is not a target range, but a ceiling.

The latest CPI figures released yesterday show that both CPI and the RBA’s underlying inflation gauge of the “trimmed mean” grew by just 1.8%, and it marked three years of core inflation growing less than the lower bound of the RBA’s target range:

In that time, the bank has cut the cash rate twice – both times in 2016; since then nothing. There is no way the bank would have similarly done nothing had the situation been reversed and we had had three years of inflation growing above 3%.

In the December quarter, inflation rose by 0.5%, but underlying inflation rose just 0.4%:

There is no sign of inflation growth anywhere. And as a result there is absolutely no chance of any interest rate rises, and the market is now pricing in the chance of a rate cut by the end of the year as a better than 50% proposition. But the likelihood of a rate cut next week remain low – unless the bank actually wants to get serious about its 2% to 3% target range.

The figures also show that for most people prices are growing by even less than the overall rate.

Once again let me make the public service announcement that if you really want to not feel the effects of inflation, stop smoking. The increases in excises continually make tobacco prices one of the leading drivers of inflation.

Here a little statistic to make you gasp (well, more than you already are if you smoke) – since 1980 the average price of all things excluding alcohol and tobacco has risen 295%, alcohol has risen 396% in that time, while the price of tobacco has gone up 4,194%:

The price of all items excluding alcohol and tobacco rose just 1.4% in 2018 (alcohol itself rose only 1.8%, so the big reason for the difference is the 15% increase in tobacco:

Unfortunately while giving up smoking might help lower the increase in your cost of living, the same cannot be said of other less addictive, but rather necessary items.

In the past year, petrol, medical and hospital services, pre-school, primary and secondary education, insurance, gas, electricity, and urban transport fares all rose faster on average across the nation than did the overall CPI – that accounts for on average 15.4% of household weekly expenditure:

The good news is that rents, food and non-alcoholic beverages, clothing and footwear and childcare all rose by less – and that accounts for around 27.4% of the average household’s spending each week.

So your own personal inflation growth does vary depending on what you spend things on, and also of course where you live.

One of the noticeable things about travelling over the holidays was the different petrol prices as I drove from Canberra to Adelaide. It will surprise no one living in the nation’s capital that our fuel prices are not only higher than elsewhere but went up in the past quarter, while elsewhere (except Hobart) they fell:

The same is true for overall inflation. By capital cities it varies from Darwin’s 1.2% growth to Hobart’s 3%:

Similarly, while Sydney, Melbourne and Adelaide are seeing a slowing of inflation growth, Perth, Hobart and Canberra are seeing an increase.

Housing costs are also quite varied across capital cities. Canberra had the highest increase of rates and charges, and electricity over the past year, while Perth remains subject to a slowdown after the mining boom end with the lowest growth of rents and prices of new homes for owner occupiers:

All in all inflation is a pesky economic beast. The average measure is so average that it represents reality for no one, and yet individualising figures would be so varied as to be meaningless for giving an indicator of what is happening. Generally we prefer lower rather than higher inflation growth, and yet the current level of growth signals that the economy lacks much in the way of vigour.

Yes, these latest figures mean wages in 2018 most likely grew faster than inflation, but only because the lack of demand in the economy is forcing down the growth of prices to levels even lower than the historically low wages growth.

The figures are neither good or bad, but they demonstrate that inflation growth remains lower not only than what the RBA generally wants, but lower than it predicted. Whether this means it will act next week remains to be seen.

• Greg Jericho is a Guardian Australia columnist