That’s probably all for today (although I might pop back with the market close later...)

Reminder, here’s our news story on the jobs data:

Just in: U.S. factory orders rose by just 0.1% in January, another sign that America’s economy is slowing.

That matches December’s reading, and is lower than the 0.4% growth economists predicted.

Missed this earlier, in the unemployment frenzy, but pessimism about the eurozone economy has abated.

That’s according to the ZEW survey of economic confidence:

Ding ding! The US stock market has opened higher, taking its lead from Europe.

The Dow Jones industrial average has gained 127 points to 26,039 points.

Some traders are anticipating a dovish message from the US Federal Reserve, which begins a two-day meeting today.

Some

NIESR, the UK think tanks, reckons UK pay growth is stabilising at around 3.5% per year.

That equates to 1.5% once you’ve adjusted for inflation (assuming that the cost of living keeps rising at current rates).

Arno Hantzsche, senior economist at NIESR, says:

Prolonged Brexit uncertainty is contributing to a situation in which firms are refraining from investment while meeting additional demand for their goods and services by raising employment. At the same time, workers have become more wary about changing jobs.

As long as demand holds up, we expect this to translate into real wage growth of around 1.5 per cent in the first quarter of this year, stabilising after a robust pick-up in 2018. But lacklustre productivity growth means that wage growth is adding to inflationary pressure.”

Back in the markets, shares are continuing to rally.

Europe’s Stoxx 600 index had just hit its highest level since 28 September, up 0.8% today. It’s now gained 14% so far this year, as it bounced back from last autumn’s selloff.

Wall Street is expected to join the rally too, with the Dow being called 0.4% higher.

Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at Forex.com, says Brexit optimism and signs that central bankers are turning dovish are pushing money into equities.

In recent days, we have been talking up the prospects of stronger recovery in European stock markets, owing in part to the falling government bond yields as a result of major central banks like the European Central Bank turning dovish recently.

The German DAX index, for example, is looking a lot healthier now....

Other EU indices are also starting to look positive, even the UK’s FTSE 100, which has underperformed year-to-date because of Brexit. On that front, the latest news is that EU leaders are apparently planning on a contingent offer on Brexit extension in light of the Speaker of the House of Commons, John Bercow, yesterday blocking Prime Minister Theresa May’s plan to put her Brexit deal to another vote.

Professor Costas Miles of Liverpool University suspects that the UK labour market hasn’t, yet, caught up with the recent slowdown in growth.

Here’s his take on today’s unemployment data:

Today’s data suggests an unemployment rate of 4% for 2018Q4 which is fully in line with the Bank of England’s latest (in February) predictions. The 3.9% figure for December 2018 appears also in line with the Bank’s 3.9% forecast for 2019Q1. Therefore, today’s data is not really a surprise.

The obvious explanation is that the unemployment rate is a lagging economic indicator and will, sooner than later, catch up with the ongoing slowdown in GDP growth. All in all, I don’t really see any emerging pressure for interest rate rises. If anything, BoE policymakers should be satisfied that economic developments unfold in line with their predictions.

The chancellor tweets:

Sky News’s Ed Conway has spotted an interesting trend:

MP Steve Baker is now asking the OBR about the “striking increase” in pay among the UK’s top earners.

There are 31,000 people in the top 0.1% income bracket in Britain, accounting for 8% of all PAYE income tax and national insurance receipts in 2017-18.

Bean says that while the reason behind the rise in pay inequality is unclear, the trend is an international one, with top earners enjoying the strongest income growth.

Bean says it’s particularly the case in the US.

Back in parliament Sir Charlie Bean, a member of the budget responsibility committee at the OBR, is being grilled by the Treasury Committee’s Alison McGovern about a lack of focus on what’s happening to regional economies outside London.

Bean rejects the idea that the watchdog isn’t concerned about the regions but adds:

“We’re not asked to analyse polices that are trying to influence regional distribution.”

McGovern is not entirely satisfied with this answer - citing 10% unemployment in some UK communities.

This chart shows how UK wages have been growing faster than inflation for the last year, after a painful period of falling real pay.

Alastair Neame, senior economist at the CEBR think tank, explains:

The long running squeeze on available labour supply is placing upward pressure on wage growth.

Including bonuses, average weekly earnings for employees in Great Britain were estimated to have increased by 3.4%, before adjusting for inflation, and by 1.5%, after adjusting for inflation, compared with a year earlier.

Mike Jakeman, senior economist at PwC, suspects Brexit uncertainty may be helping workers -- as companies would rather hire staff than buy expensive new machinery.

It may seem difficult to balance positive jobs and wage data with the fact that business investment has been shrinking for several quarters. It may be that demand in the economy is close to capacity, which is generating demand for new workers, but firms are reticent about committing to major expansion plans until more is known about Brexit.

Vacancies in the UK are running at record levels, as firms struggle to find workers, today’s employment report shows.

That should help to push wages higher, as companies compete for labour.

Tej Parikh, senior economist at the Institute of Directors, warns that this may not continue...

“Businesses have been steadfast in bringing on board new staff and in creating vacancies, despite question marks over the future path of the economy. Meanwhile, as unemployment has fallen, competition for a shrinking pool of workers has pushed up salaries and buoyed households.

“But with uncertainty around Brexit reaching a crescendo, firms are becoming more and more cagey over their hiring decisions.

The ONS has admitted that something went wrong with today’s jobs report, which is why it was released several minutes early.

A spokesperson says:

“Due to a problem with the release process some data were released early. In accordance with standard release practices we therefore published all data immediately.”

The ONS has also found that the number of people who’ve dropped out of the labour market has hit a record low of 20.7%.

That’s due to a drop in student numbers, and the number of retired people.

Worrying, though, more people are suffering from short-term or long-term sickness, which takes them out of the jobs market.

The ONS says:

The categories that recorded decreases were students (58,000), people who were retired (50,000) and people who looked after family or home (26,000). The fall in the number of students was the largest since the three months to February 2012. The categories that increased were those of people on long-term sickness (23,000) and people who were temporarily sick (4,000).

Economist Rupert Seggins has tweeted the details:

Although average pay rose by 3.4% in the last year, earnings are STILL below their pre-crisis levels, once inflation is accounted for.

The number of people in work jumped by 473,00 over the last year, to 32.71 million.

Most of this was full-time jobs (up 424,000), plus 49,000 more part-time workers.

Intriguingly, younger Baby Boomers and older members of Generation X took most of these extra jobs.

The number of women classed as unemployed has hit its lowest in at least 48 years - and possibly longer.

The ONS says that for November 2018 to January 2019, the unemployment rate:

• for everyone was estimated at 3.9%; it has not been lower since November 1974 to January 1975
• for men was estimated at 4.0%; it has not been lower since April to June 1975
• for women was estimated at 3.8%, the lowest since comparable records began in 1971

Just in: The Treasury committee are calling for an investigation into whether regulators blundered over the collapse of London Capital & Finance.

LCF went under earlier this year, having taken around £236m from over 11,000 investors who were attracted by its promise of 8% returns on its mini-bonds/

Yesterday, the Serious Fraud Office arrested four people, following claims that LCF mis-sold its investments to customers, who are now unlikely to get their money back.

Despite all the Brexit anxiety, Britain’s stock market has hit a five-month high.

The FTSE 100 index has gained 35 points to 7334, extending its recent rally, to its highest level since early October.

Chilean copper market Antofagasta is leading the rally, up 3.6%, after reporting a higher-than-expected dividend payout (despite falling earnings).

Ocado is close behind, up 3.3% to a record high, after reporting revenue grew by 11.2% in the last quarter despite a major fire at its warehouse.

Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell, reckons investors see good value in UK shares:

“The FTSE 100 is currently doing a good job of confounding the Cassandras, naysayers and pessimists with a capital gain of nearly 8% in 2019 to date, despite the ongoing uncertainty over global tariff and trade policies, Brexit and gathering concerns over the globe’s economic growth prospects.

“The index’s advance may be the result of its valuation, since a forward price/earnings ratio of 12.5 times and a prospective dividend yield of 4.7% look attractive, both in absolute terms and also relative to the other geographic options available to equity investors. Such relatively lowly multiples could suggest that a lot of bad news is already in the price, especially after the second-half slump in the index last year. After a marked period of underperformance which stretches back to the summer 2016 referendum vote on EU membership, UK equities look unloved and may therefore be undervalued.

Ouch! Shares in Bonmarché have slumped by 31% at the start of trading after it warned losses will be larger than expected this year.

The Yorkshire-based clothing retailer has disappointed the City by revealing it now expects to lose up to £6m this financial year, up from 4% previously.

After disappointing trading in the run-up to Christmas, Bonmarché was forced to slash prices heavily to clear stock - a reminder of the difficult retail market.

Neil Wilson of Markets.com points out that such hefty price-cuts can backfire.

This rather reflects the problems brands face as the spiral of discounting starts to sap consumer confidence – shoppers now expect to see 40-50% off everything and are less satisfied with smaller discounts.

Worryingly, Bonmarché says trading has deteriorated in the last couple of weeks:

Trading since the beginning of March has been significantly weaker, reversing sales gains made in the previous months.

Jasper Lawler of London Capital Group predicts that today’s jobs report will be solid... but will probably also be overshadowed by Brexit drama:

Whilst the Brexit drama continues to play out UK investors will glance towards the UK jobs report. The British labour market is strong and this is expected to be reflected in the report. Unemployment is forecast to remain at a low level of 4%. Wages excluding bonuses are expected to hold firm at 3.4% for another month.

With inflation at 1.9% in January, this is strong real wage growth. This will be encouraging news for the Bank of England, who will be keeping a close eye on increasing inflationary pressures from wages, although their hands are still tied with Brexit. A strong reading could lift the pound back towards $1.33 should sentiment allow. Should the pound traders ignore a solid reading then we can assume the bias is against the pound and the trend will be pound negative.