Graeme Wearden 

Eurozone strengthens as growth picks up and unemployment hits 10-year low – as it happened

Rolling coverage of new growth figures from across Europe, and other events in the financial markets
  
  

Paris city at sunsetEiffel Tower in Paris seen from a skyscraper at sunset.
The Eiffel Tower in Paris seen from a skyscraper at sunset. Photograph: Bee-Teerapol/Getty Images

European stocks boosted by GDP surprise

And finally... European stock markets ended the day in the green, thanks to better-than-expected growth figures.

Spain’s IBEX gained 0.5%, after its growth race accelerated to 0.7% - quite pacy by European standards.

The Italian FTSE MIB finished 0.4% higher, as Milan traders welcomed the end of its latest recession (while noting that growth has been weak for quite a long time).

Fiona Cincotta of City Index says:

Whilst this is clearly a well needed win for the Italian coalition government, the long-term picture is still shaky at best; Italy remains the sick dog of the eurozone. Investors were willing to look beyond this today.

The FTSE MIB jumped higher following the release. The Italian index is leading the charge in Europe up over 0.4%.

Spain, was a standout winner, economic growth in the region grew an impressive 0.7% quarter on quarter, in line with its post eurozone crisis average rate.

And on that note, goodnight!

Back on Wall Street, Alphabet investors have singed fingers after watching the stock plunge over 8%.

More than $70bn has been wiped off its value, in the biggest one-day drop since 2012.

Summary

Time for a quick recap

Europe’s economy may be turning a corner, following a blizzard of economic data today.

Growth in the eurozone jumped to +0.4% in the first quarter of this year, stronger than the meagre 0.2% recorded in Q4 2018.

Among other highlights:

Economists say the data suggests the eurozone will avoid being pulled into a downturn.

In another boost, unemployment across Europe fell to its lowest level since at least 2000 - with eurozone unemployment at a 10 year low.

Conditions in the New World, though, are more worrying. We’ve learned that

This has left US and European stock markets rather mixed -- not helped by a slide in Alphabet shares.

In other corporate news, General Electric has cheered Wall Street with results which could have been worse....

CNN explains:

General Electric has fallen so hard that Wall Street is relieved its industrial businesses only burned $1.2 billion of cash during the first quarter.

Shares of GE(GE) climbed 7% in premarket trading on Tuesday after the company reported profit and revenue that exceeded forecasts. Wall Street is betting the company’s recovery remains intact.

GE’s struggles continue to be driven by its slumping power division. Profit tumbled 71% in that unit as orders nosedived.

Yet GE is standing by its 2019 guidance for industrial free cash flow to range between negative $2 billion and zero.

Ouch! Shares in Alphabet have taken a mighty tumble at the start of trading in New York.

Google’s parent company has dropped by 8%, it’s worst stumble since 2012, after it reported a 30% drop in net income last night.

Investors are also concerned that revenue growth slowed to 16.7%, suggesting Alphabet is facing tough competition in the advertising space.

Meanwhile in America, house price growth has hit its lowest rate in around seven years - perhaps a sign that recent interest rate hikes have cooled the market.

Canada’s February contraction confirms that the country’s growth outlook is bleak, says Simon Harvey, FX market analyst at Monex Europe.

He points out that Canada’s mining sector is struggling:

“The sixth consecutive decline in the natural resources sector evidences that the spill over effects from the rout in Q4 2018 are yet to fade.

Mining output declined by 4.4% in February while oil & gas extraction fell 0.6%, but February may show the end of the decline as investment is expected to increase amid firming commodity prices.

Newsflash: Mexico’s economy has also suffered a contraction.

Mexican GDP fell by 0.2% in the last quarter, dashing hopes of a 0.3% expansion and putting it half-way towards a recession. More details here.

Updated

Newsflash: Canada’s economy has weakened, bucking the stronger data out of Europe today.

Canadian GDP fell by 0.1% in February, new figures show, following a 0.3% expanse in January. The goods-producing sector and the services sector both contracted, Statistics Canada says, with mining also weakening.

Analysts had expected GDP to be flat month-on-month in February, so this suggests the economy is struggling more than expected.

Updated

McDonald's new burgers bring home the bacon

Over in America, fast food chain McDonalds has beaten Wall Street sales forecasts, as recent menu changes prove a winner with customers.

Global like-for-like sales jumped by 5.4% in the last quarter, beating estimates of 3.4% growth. They jumped 4.5% in the US, again stronger than expected.

McDonald’s new strategy of slapping bacon rashers in its burger range can take some credit, as Marketwatch explains:

The company attributed the U.S. same-store sales beat to its promotions, which included a Bacon Event, Donut Sticks, and the 2-for-$5 Mix-and-Match promo.

Ana Andrade, research analyst at The Economist Intelligence Unit, reckons the eurozone economy still needs support - so don’t expect the European Central Bank to raise interest rates anytime soon!

She writes:

At the ECB’s last meeting Mario Draghi showed that the bank’s toolkit could be adjusted to tackle a potential severe economic downturn. The ECB signalled it was ready to go “low for longer” or even further cut rates if the euro zone headed into a recession. If the flash estimate for Q1 is confirmed at 0.4% there should be no need for this.

Nevertheless, we continue to expect TLTROs [new cheap loans to banks] in very favourable terms and no hike this year as inflationary pressures remain low.

Updated

PwC have helpfully drawn up this chart, showing how Spain has posted a strong recovery since the debt crisis, but Greece has really struggled:

Here’s Barret Kupelian, senior economist at PwC, on today’s growth data:

The national breakdown of the data showed the Italian economy grew in the first quarter of this year putting an end to its 6th recession in the 21st century. For France, even though output expanded by a respectable 0.3% on a quarter-on-quarter basis it was less strong than expected. However, we expect the recent tax cuts announced by the French authorities to sustain demand in the short-term, assuming households continue to spend rather than save.

Finally, Spain continued to defy expectations growing at a rate of 0.7% quarter-on-quarter in line with its post Eurozone crisis average rate. The figure below shows that Spain’s GDP in level terms is now around 16% higher compared to the low it struck during the Eurozone crisis. This is the second best performance when compared to other peripheral economies, with sunny Cyprus managing to outperform others growing its economy by about 18%.

Does today’s data herald the beginning of a synchronised upswing in Eurozone GDP growth? It is probably too soon to tell with one quarter’s worth of data but Eurozone policymakers will be watching whether the momentum continues in the next few quarters.

Nancy Curtin, CIO at Close Brothers Asset Management, strikes a cautious note -- Europe’s economy is improving, but it’s hardly booming.

“Eurozone GDP figures may have provided a positive surprise for investors, but its economy is far from out of the woods. In reality, growth is still pretty anaemic, and the Eurozone’s export-led economy remains vulnerable to any global slowdown. But things are looking up; Chinese stimulus should turn into a tail wind for the region, supporting positive trends in wage growth and employment.

Should economic growth run out of steam once more, rather than picking up speed, a fiscal intervention or further monetary policy changes may be deemed necessary.“

Italian GDP: What the experts say

Pictet’s Nadia Gharbi points out that 2018 was a year to forget for Italy - at least 2019 has started better.

Nicola Nobile of Oxford Economics makes an important point too; Italy has lagged sharply behind other Eurozone countries for some time.

Italy’s farms, factories and service sector companies all made a positive contribution to growth in the last quarter, Istat says.

Net exports also boosted growth, which is an encouraging signal.

However, company inventories dragged back domestic growth (implying that firms ran down their stockpiles of goods).

Updated

Italy escapes recession, but growth still weak

In another boost to the eurozone, Italy has returned to growth after its third recession in a decades.

Italian GDP expanded by 0.2% in the first three months of this year, Istat reports.

That follows a 0.1% contraction in both the third and fourth quarters of 2018.

This pick-up in growth will cheer spirits in Rome, where the anti-establishment government has been struggling to deliver tax and spending changes following its dispute with Brussels over this year’s budget.

But the long-term picture for Italy still isn’t great -- the economy is only 0.1% larger than a year ago, meaning it still looks like the sickest member of the EU.

Newsflash: Italy has escaped recession! More to follow....

Europe’s economy has been through some tough times recently, thanks to Brexit, the US-China trade war, political clashes between Italy and Brussels, and a downturn in Germany’s factory sector (particularly auto markets).

But today’s data suggests the eurozone will avoid being dragged into recession, as some feared.

Dan O’Brien, chief economist at the Institute of International and European Affairs, reckons the region is emerging from a soft patch.

Germany’s growth report won’t be issued for a couple of weeks. But today’s date implies that Europe’s largest economy has posted solid growth in the last quarter - perhaps 0.4%, or even faster?

The euro has risen to its highest level in nearly a week, on the back of today’s jobs and growth figures.

The single currency has gained a third of a cent to $1.122, as investors conclude that the eurozone is stronger than thought.

Updated

Unemployment across the wider European Union has fallen to 6.4% -- the lowest since Eurostat started keeping data in January 2000.

The statistics body says that almost one and a half million people stopped being unemployed in the last year:

Eurostat estimates that 15.907 million men and women in the EU28, of whom 12.630 million in the euro area, were unemployed in March 2019. Compared with February 2019, the number of persons unemployed decreased by 172 000 in the EU28 and by 174 000 in the euro area.

Compared with March 2018, unemployment fell by 1.430 million in the EU28 and by 1.172 million in the euro area.

Eurozone unemployment hits 10-year low

In another boost, unemployment across the eurozone has hit its lowest level in over a decade.

The eurozone jobless rate fell to 7.7% in March, Eurostat reports. That’s down from 7.8% in February, and the lowest recorded since the financial crisis in September 2008.

It’s still rather higher than in the UK (3.9%) or the US (3.8%), but much better than the double-digit jobless rates recorded during the euro debt crisis.

Theres are, as ever, sharp differences across Euope.

The lowest unemployment rates in March 2019 were recorded in Czechia (1.9%), Germany (3.2%) and the Netherlands (3.3%). The highest unemployment rates were observed in Greece (18.5% in January 2019), Spain (14.0%) and Italy (10.2%).

Eurozone GDP: Snap reaction

Financial experts are welcoming the pick-up in eurozone growth in the last quarter.

Fred Dukrozet of Swiss private bank Pictet points out that the current recovery has now lasted six years:

The Wall Street Journal’s Paul Hannon points out, though, that growth was still stronger in 2017.

European policymakers will like the look of this chart - showing how growth is rising again after some tough quarters.

On an annual basis, the eurozone grew by 1.2% in the last year while the EU grew by 1.5%.

The wider European Union also accelerated in the last quarter.

The EU grew by 0.5% in January-March, new figures from Eurostat show, up from 0.3% in the fourth quarter of 2018.

Eurozone growth rate jumps to 0.4%

Boom! The eurozone grew by 0.4% in the first quarter of 2019.

That’s stronger than expected, and twice as fast as the 0.2% growth recorded in the final three months of 2018.

More to follow....

Updated

European stock markets are bobbing rather aimlessly today, despite the pick-up in growth in Spain.

The French, German and UK markets are all slightly in the red, as the slowdown in China’s factory growth overnight dampens the mood. Last night’s underwhelming results from Alphabet is also weighing on shares.

Taiwan's growth hits three-year low

Looking beyond the eurozone to Asia, we have disappointing growth figures from Taiwan.

Taiwan’s economy grew at annual rate of 1.72% in the last quarter, the slowest reading since the second quarter of 2016. Taiwan’s electronics sector has been hit by America’s trade war with neighbouring China, and the weakness in global trade.

The FT has more details.

We don’t get any German growth data today, unfortunately. Instead, Europe’s largest economy has just posted a big fall in unemployment.

The number of people out of work in Germany shrank by 12,000 this month to 2.22 million, the Federal Statistics Body reports. That’s much better than the 5,000 reduction expected by economists.

The jobless rate held steady at 4.9%, the lowest since reunification in 1989.

Germany’s economy has weakened in recent months - with no growth in the second half of 2018, and a painful contraction in its factory sector. Fortunately, this doesn’t seem to be triggering a rise in joblessness.

Austria’s growth rate has dipped, to 0.3% in January-March from 0.4% in October-December 2018.

Although household spending and business investment rose, trade growth weakened -- a problem also suffered by France of course.

Inga Fechner of ING explains:

While household and public consumption expenditure held up nicely, each rising by 0.4% quarter-on-quarter, exports and imports lost momentum. The cooling world economy and especially the cooling of the European industrial economy has started to leave its mark on Austria.

Although imports rose moderately (+0.4%) in line with investment demand, exports expanded to the same extent, resulting in hardly any contribution to GDP growth in the first quarter.

Updated

Bloomberg is also cheered by the jump in Spain’s growth rate, calling it an encouraging sign for European growth.

Spain’s economy unexpectedly picked up pace, adding to signs that a slowdown in the euro area may be on the verge of turning.

Spain has consistently outgrown the 19-country region since the start of 2018 and expanded 0.7 percent in the first quarter. A gradual fall in unemployment and higher wages have given a sustained boost to consumer spending, a motor of the Spanish economy, offsetting weaker export demand.

More here: Spanish Economic Growth Exceeds Estimates at Start of 2019

Getting back to the growth figures...and this chart shows how Spain’s economy has now been steadily growing since 2014:

UK hotel chain Whitbread is also under pressure this morning, after warning the Brexit uncertainty is hurting its Premier Inn business.

Alison Brittain, Whitbread’s CEO, warned that there are ongoing signs of market weakness across both business and leisure, especially in the UK regions.

That suggests both consumers and companies have been cutting back on travel, while they watched the political crisis in Westminster unfold.

She told shareholders:

In the fourth quarter, we saw a decline in business and leisure confidence, leading to weaker domestic hotel demand. This weakness has increased into March and April particularly in the regional business market, coinciding with an acute period of political and economic uncertainty in the UK. At this stage in the new financial year it is too early to know how business confidence and its impact on the market will evolve.

Statutory profits at the group, which sold its Costa Coffee business to Coca-Cola for £3.9bn in January, shrank by 40% in the last year. Shares have dropped by 2.6% in early trading.

In the City, shares of mining companies have fallen after China’s factory growth unexpectedly stalled last month (see 7.34am).

Coal and iron ore giant Glencore are the biggest faller, down 3%, with BHP Group and Rio Tinto both shedding 1.5%.

But that’s balanced out by Standard Chartered; up 4% after announcing a $1bn share buyback earlier today.

The pick-up in Spain’s growth rate is a positive signal for Europe’s economy, say financial analysts.

Here’s Simon Harvey of Monex Europe:

This is from currency analyst Marc-André Fongern:

And here’s Michael Brown of Caxton.

Spain beats forecasts with 0.7% gowth

Newsflash: Spain’s economy has accelerated in the last quarter, growing more than twice as fast as France.

Spanish GDP expanded by 0.7% in the first three months of this year, its National Statistics Office reports, beating forecasts.

That’s up from 0.6% in October-December, showing that Spain’s economy gained some momentum in recent weeks.

On an annual basis, Spain’s economy has grown by 2.4% compared with Q1 2018 - again, a solid result.

Reaction to follow

Updated

Mnuchin: Hope to make trade war progress

Given today’s data, French and Chinese manufacturers will both be hoping for a trade war breakthrough soon.

US officials have landed in Beijing today for fresh talks to end the dispute that has led to tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars of exports.

Speaking to reporters at his hotel, US treasury secretary Steven Mnuchin said he hopes to make progress:

“We’re looking forward to productive discussions over the next few days.”

China's factory growth disappoints

Overnight, some disappointing Chinese manufacturing data has undermined hopes that the global economy was picking up.

China’s factories barely grew at all in April, according to the country’s National Bureau of Statistics. It’s official manufacturing PMI, which tracks activity, shrank to 50.1 in April from 50.5 in March. That level indicates stagnation - implying that the trade war with America is still biting.

Those trade disputes are surely also a factor behind the erosion of French export growth last quarter.

Updated

Although any growth is welcome, a 0.3% quarterly growth rate is rather mediocre.

And as Philippe Waechter, chief economist at Ostrum Asset Management points out, French GDP has now been subdued for over a year.

Updated

Some snap reaction:

This chart illustrates how the halt in French export growth dragged its economy back in the last quarter (the green bar).

The red bar is also significant - that’s companies swelling their inventories.

More encouragingly, French household spending grew by 0.4% in the last quarter (having flatlined in October-December). That suggests that consumer confidence might be picking up.

French businesses also kept investing in new equipment and facilities -- this ‘gross fixed capital formation’ rose by 0.3% (down slightly on the previous quarter).

This means that domestic demand made a positive boost to France’s economy.

Net trade decline hurts France

Digging into France’s GDP report a little, it’s clear that the slowdown in global trade has hurt companies.

Export growth almost ground to a halt in the first three months of 2019, rising by just 0.1% (from 2.2% growth in Q4 2018). Imports also slowed, to 0.9% from 1.2% in Q4 2018.

The drop in exports means that net trade wiped 0.3% off France’s growth rate.

Companies also expanded their inventories -- suggesting that they have been stockpiling goods rather than selling them on the markets. This inventory building added 0.3 percentage points to France’s growth rate -- implying that total growth would have been flat otherwise.

France grew by 0.3% in the last quarter

Newsflash: France has got GDP Day up and running by reporting another quarter of growth.

The French economy expanded by 0.3% in January-March this year, new figures from stats body INSEE show.

That matches its growth rate in the last quarter of 2018, and suggests that the Gilets Jaunes protests that gripped Paris recently have not stalled the economy.

More to follow....

Updated

Introduction: It's eurozone GDP Day

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.

Today we learn whether Europe’s economy is still stuck in a rut, when new GDP figures from across the single currency region are released.

Economists predict that eurozone growth rose to 0.3% in the first quarter of 2019, from 0.2% in October-December. That would be a marginal improvement, but still rather weak.

On a country level, Italy may claw its way out of recession.

New eurozone unemployment figures will also let us see companies are still creating jobs, despite the slowdown.

In a bumper day for data, we should also get growth figures from Mexico and Canada.

On the corporate front, Santander, Lufthansa and Airbus are reporting results this morning, along with BP and Whitbread in the UK, (plus GM, Apple and McDonalds later today).

. Plus, the tech sector could be subdued after Alphabet reported disappointing results.

The markets are expected to be quiet, after another record high on Wall Street last night, but some surprise GDP data today could change that!

The agenda

  • 6.30am BST: French GDP for Q1 2019
  • 8am BST: Spanish GDP for Q1 2019
  • 8.55am BST: German unemployment figures for April
  • 10am BST: Eurozone GDP for Q1 2019
  • 11am BST: Italian GDP for Q1 2019
  • 1.30pm BST: Canadian GDP for February
  • 2pm BST: Mexican GDP for Q1 2019

Updated

 

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