Graeme Wearden 

FTSE 100 hits six-month high; UK wage growth highest since EU vote – as it happened

Britain’s jobless rate has come in at just 3.9%, lowest in over four decades, as wage growth keeps rising faster than inflation
  
  

A a Job Centre in London, Britain.
A a Job Centre in London, Britain. Photograph: Andy Rain/EPA

Finally, Britain’s stock market has ended the day at a new six-month closing high.

A risk-on mood in the markets, plus a weaker pound, helped the FTSE 100 end the day 33 points higher, at 7,469.

Other European markets also reached their highest levels since last October.

David Madden of CMC Markets says:

Fresh six month highs were achieved on the FTSE 100, DAX and CAC 40 today as the bullish sentiment continues. The fact that Brexit has been delayed, and the European Central Bank are willing to launch another round of targeted lending later this year has helped investor appetite. US-China trade talks have been moving in the right direction recently, and that has been a factor too.

That may be all for today.....

Our economics editor Larry Elliott isn’t too impressed with today’s record levels of employment.

He argues that it shows UK firms are too reluctant to invest, and would rather hire more staff (often on inadequate wages):

For decades, the critique has remained the same: a big productivity gap with rival countries is the result of low pay, inadequate training, clapped out machinery and an endemic short-termism. High levels of employment are the flipside of that.

Nomura: UK jobs market coming off the boil

Nomura’s chief economist, George Buckley, has spotted signs that Britain’s labour market is cooling.

Having analysed today’s unemployment report, he warns:

  • Most measures of pay fell in absolute terms between January and February. Our favoured measure of pay – that of private sector regular pay excluding bonuses – declined by 0.2% m-o-m
  • The chart below shows a swathe representing the range of 3, 4, 5 and 6m average annualised rates of private sector regular pay. The range is currently from around 2% to 3%, compared to between 4.5-5% just four months ago
  • One school of thought is that Brexit could be negative for pay. After all, if there are risks to corporate profitability from weaker economic activity and (sterling-induced) rising input costs – the latter of which have grown at an average annual rate of some 9% since 2017 – firms are likely to try to reduce costs elsewhere to maintain margins.

Chinese telecoms manufacturer Huawei has hit back, hard, at claims it is a security risk and should be blacklisted by Western governments.

My colleague Rupert Neate, who is attending a conference in Shenzhen, has the story:

John Suffolk, Huawei’s chief security officer and the UK government’s former chief IT adviser, said US politicians had not produced any evidence to back up claims that Huawei’s forthcoming 5G mobile technology could be hacked by Chinese spies to eavesdrop on sensitive phone calls – or even kill targets by crashing driverless cars.

Suffolk, who was one of the highest paid British civil servants before he left for Huawei in 2011, said America’s allegations were motivated by politics and “certainly not security” concerns.

[America] can’t keep saying [Huawei] has got some dodgy technology. [Edward] Snowden revealed all kind of things going on with American technology,” he said. “No one has revealed anything that we do [is bad].

“They [the US] are belittling national security – national security is important and they shouldn’t belittle it. They should face up to the reality that technology is complicated and should work together to solve the problems that we can.”

Wall Street has opened higher, with the Dow gaining 58 points to 26,448.

The tech-focused Nasdaq has gained 0.5%, suggesting investors are upbeat today.

Larry Fink, the head of asset management giant BlackRock, has predicted that markets could be poised to “melt-up”. Why? Because investors have large cash holdings, and may fear they’re missing out on a rally.

Fink told CNBC:

Despite where the markets are in equities, we have not seen money being put to work.

We have record amounts of money in cash.”

It’s true that most indices are up over 10% this year, so investors on the sidelines may be anxious....

Full story: Pay growth picks up

Here’s my colleague Richard Partington on today’s employment report:

Pay growth in Britain has risen at the fastest rate in more than a decade, as companies keep hiring despite growing fears over Brexit.

Average weekly earnings, including bonuses, rose by 3.5% on the year in the three months to February, according to the Office for National Statistics, matching the rate recorded in January and the joint highest level since mid-2008.

Basic pay increased by 3.4% on the year, down from an upwardly revised 3.5% in the three months to January.

Companies hired an additional 179,000 workers, most of them women, maintaining the UK’s record level of employment at 32.7 million. Unemployment remained at the lowest level since the mid-1970s, at 3.9%.

Britain’s jobs market has been unexpectedly resilient to the political turmoil over Brexit, despite warnings that crashing out of the EU without a deal would trigger job losses across Britain and an immediate recession.

More here...

Just in: America’s factory sector stalled in March.

US manufacturing output was unchanged last month, new figures from the Federal Reserve show, a little weaker than the 0.1% rise expected.

Industrial output (a wider measure that also includes energy production) fell by 0.1%, rather than rising 0.2% as expected.

Car assembly rates dropped too, from 11.31 million per year to 10.85m.

It looks like a sign that America’s economy has slowed, perhaps hit by weaker growth overseas (although economists are hoping that activity will pick up later this year).

Boom! Britain’s stock market has hit a six-month high.

The blue-chip index of leading shares has gained 44 points, or 0.6%, to 7481, its highest level since last October.

The rally comes as the pound suddenly stumbles, as my colleague Jess Elgot reports that Brexit talks between the government and the Labour party have stalled.

This has knocked sterling down by 0.4 of a cent, to $1.3056.

That’s good for firms with large overseas earnings. So ad giant WPP (+2.1%) and insurance group Prudential (+2.3%) are among the risers, with financial firms and industrial groups among the gainers.

The chancellor tweets...

Older workers are playing a key role in keeping Britain’s employment rate at a record high.

More than 70% of the 457,000 jobs created in the last year were filled by people aged 50 and over, today’s labour market report shows.

Gerwyn Davies, senior labour market analyst for the HR group CIPD, says firms are casting their net wider to find staff, given the tight labour markets.

Changing demographics is undoubtedly a factor, but another possibility is that employers are being forced to widen their recruitment channels and make work more accessible in response to the tightening labour market.

Some of these groups are also more likely to have received more help and support from policymakers, through interventions such as more generous childcare support, as well as National Living Wage increases.

Back to the unemployment report... and Mike Amesbury MP, Labour’s Shadow Employment Minister has pointed out that Britain’s labour market isn’t working for everyone:

“Behind today’s headline figures, average wages are still less than they were ten years ago and in-work poverty is rising faster than employment.

Many people are trapped in low paid, insecure work and 70% of children in poverty now live in working families.

Labour will introduce a Real Living Wage of at least £10 an hour, ban zero-hours contracts and invest in skills and training to build an economy that works for everyone.”

In other news, the German business climate has weakened again... but conditions might look brighter soon.

That’s according to the monthly survey from Munich-based research group ZEW, which tracks sentiment among investors and analysts.

ZEW’s current conditions index has fallen to just 5.5 points, down from 11.1 in March, in the seventh monthly fall in a row. That’s understandable, as the German economy hasn’t posted any growth since last summer.

But its forward-looking economic sentiment index has picked up, to 3.1 points from -3.6 a month ago. ZEW says that the Brexit postponement helped to raise spirits.

The number of vacancies at UK firms remains close to a record high, with 852,000 positions currently unfilled.

That should help push wages higher, as workers are in demand.

Federation of Small Businesses (FSB) national chairman Mike Cherry says this shortfall is a “headache” for company owners. He blames Brexit, which has deterred EU nationals from seeking work in the UK.

“One in five small UK employers rely on staff from the EU.

The sharp drop in European arrivals is a real concern for many smaller firms, particularly those in sectors such as construction, care and engineering where the contribution of EU team members is so vital. One in three small firms now say lack of access to the right personnel is a major barrier to growth.

Here’s the BBC’s Dharshini David on the jobs report:

Pay growth returns to pre-referendum levels

Take-home pay is now growing at the fastest rate since the EU referendum of 2016, points out the Resolution Foundation.

That’s thanks to the jump in real wage growth to 1.5% per year, and means households are shaking off the slump in sterling after the Brexit vote (which drove up inflation, taking a big bite out of real income).

Stephen Clarke, their senior economic analyst, explains:

“Real wage growth has finally returned to pre-referendum levels, though the post-referendum pay slump has left us £12 a week poorer.

This mini pay recovery is encouraging, but it is likely to be tested in the coming months as inflation is expected to start rising again.

Brexit uncertainty has not caused businesses to put hiring plans on hold – quite the opposite. But it has caused firms to put investment on hold, which may in turn affect productivity and the strength of pay growth in the longer term.”

Updated

Simon Harvey, analyst at Monex Europe, has spotted that UK pay growth slowed in February alone.

Real basic pay (earnings excluding bonuses, adjusted for inflation) only rose by 1.3% in February, down from 1.9% in January.

This monthly pay repost can be volatile (which is why the ONS prefer the three-month reading of 1.5%), but it may show that bosses were reluctant to agree pay rises as a no-deal Brexit loomed.

TUC: Wage growth not enough

There’s a real clash between today’s rosy-looking jobs report, and the reality of rising income inequality, persistent childhood poverty and heavy demand for food banks by hungry, struggling families.

TUC General Secretary Frances O’Grady believes the problem is that UK wages are simply too low. The average employee is still taking home less each week than before the financial crisis (once you adjust for inflation).

O’Grady says the 1.5% rise in real earnings in the last 12 months isn’t enough:

“This modest pay growth is doing little for workers still feeling the effects of the longest pay squeeze for 200 years.

“And with over half of those in poverty living in working households, we need a more ambitious plan to support jobs and wages. This means action from government to raise the minimum wage to £10 as quickly as possible and giving unions the freedom to enter every workplace to negotiate fair pay rises.“

Tej Parikh, senior economist at the Institute of Directors, reckons Brexit uncertainty may be helping job creation.

The theory is that firms are unwilling to spend heavily on expensive new equipment to boost productivity, so they’ve been hiring new staff instead.

Parikh explains:

“The elongated period of uncertainty has kept businesses in a hiring cycle. Many firms have lacked the confidence to put funding toward training, technology, and new machinery, which has in turn meant firms need to hire more workers to lift output.

Without a pick-up in investment, low productivity will also keep wages from growing further, particularly when considering the higher regulatory costs businesses are facing this tax year.

That implies that job creation could stall if Brexit is finalised, or that productivity will remain weak if the crisis rumbles ever onwards.

And here’s Theresa May’s chief of staff on the unemployment report:

Government hails employment statistics

Minister of State for Employment Alok Sharma has welcomed today’s jobs report, and urged fellow MPs to fix the Brexit crisis before the economy turns sour.

Sharma says:

“The UK jobs market continues to go from strength to strength, proving the underlying resilience of the British economy.

“But we must not take this for granted. We need to work urgently to get behind a Brexit deal that protects this jobs record and gives employers the certainty to continue to invest in their workforce and boost wages.

“With more people in work than ever before, it is welcome news that wages are continuing to rise at their fastest rate in a decade.

“And by increasing the living wage and personal tax allowance for 2019, this Government is putting more money in people’s pocket, benefiting millions of families across the country.”

UK unemployment; What the experts say

Economist Rupert Seggins argues that UK wage growth should be even stronger, given the labour market is apparently so tight.

Pawel Adrjan of jobs site Indeed.com says the labour market has shrugged off Brexit worries.

The number of people classed as economic inactive in the UK has hit its lowest level on record, at 20.7% (down from 21.2% a year ago).

That means more people are either working or looking for work.

The long-term picture is that fewer women have been classed as economically inactive over recent decades, narrowing the gap with men.

Over the last five years, the number of women looking after the family or home has dropped by 271,000 while the number taking early retirement is down 242,000).

Wage growth continues

Total pay in the UK has kept rising at its fastest rate in a decade (at least until you account for inflation).

Pay including bonuses rose by 3.5% per year in the last quarter, the same as a month ago. That’s the biggest jump since the financial crisis in 2008.

Basic pay rose by 3.4% per year, dipping from 3.5% (last month’s figures have been revised up a little)

But if you adjust for inflation, then real pay is only rising by just over 1.5% per year - the fastest since summer 2016.

In another healthy sign, Britain’s employment rate has hit a new joint record high, at 76.1%.

That’s up from 75.4% a year ago, and hasn’t been higher since current records began in 1971.

The employment rate for men is 80.5%, the highest since February 1991.

For women, the employment rate has risen to 71.8%, a joint-record high.

UK jobless rate remains at 44-year low

Newsflash: Britain’s jobless rate has stuck at its lowest level since 1975, when Denis Healey, Jim Callaghan, Roy Jenkins, Barbara Castle and Tony Benn were sat around Harold Wilson’s cabinet table.

Just 3.9% of UK adults were classed as unemployed in the three months to February, new figures from the Office for National Statistics show.

That matches last month’s figures, making it the joint lowest since 1975, and indicating that Britain’s Brexit deadlock hasn’t caused job losses.

More to follow....

Newsflash: Sterling implied volatility (a measure of whether investors are betting on the pound surging or slumping) has hit its lowest level in 16 months.

That shows the City isn’t expecting fresh Brexit drama soon, now that Article 50 has been extended until October.

JD hits record high

Boom! JD Sports has shrugged off the challenges in the retail sector by posting its best ever profit, sending shares to a record high.

Revenues jumped by 39% in the 12 months to 4th February, with solid growth in the UK, and at JD’s European division. This sent pre-tax profits up 15% to £339m, as consumers continued to snap up its leisurewear and sneakers from brands such as Adidas, Nike and Calvin Klein.

The company’s also hoping to make a splash in the US, having recently bought the Finish Line business.

Shares in JD have hit a record high in early trading, up 3% to 553p.

That values the company at over £5.3bn, or more than several big names FTSE 100 companies including Marks & Spencer (£4.5bn), holiday chain TUI (£4.7bn) or Sainsbury (£5.16bn).

Not to mention rival Sports Direct, worth just £1.6bn after complaints about workplace conditions, and a failed attempt to take over Debenhams.

JD is currently a member of the FTSE 250 index of medium-sized firms, but looks well placed for promotion at the next reshuffle...

Shares in Galliford Try plunged by more than a fifth when markets opened this morning after the housbuilder and construction firm spooked investors with a profit warning.

The company said it would shrink its construction business and warned full year profits would be £30m-£40m lower than City analysts were expecting, party because of cost overruns on some projects, including the troubled Queensferry Crossing in Scotland.

Galliford Try had already increased its provision on the Aberdeen by-pass project, after it was left to pick up the pieces when Carillion - its former partner on the project - collapsed.

After initially falling more than 20%, shares are now down 18% at 596p, making it the biggest faller on the FTSE 250.

Lufthansa shares rocked by profits warning

Ouch! Shares in German airline Lufthansa are sliding, after it posted a shock loss for the last quarter.

Germany’s biggest airline made an adjusted loss of €336m in January-March, down from a profit of £52m a year ago. It blamed rising fuel costs and downward pressure on fares, which has sent a shiver through the travel sector.

Lufthansa shares have slumped 5% at the open in Frankfurt. In London, easyJet have lost 1.4%.

Falling fares is excellent news for passengers, especially those who’ve put off booking holidays because of Brexit. But it also suggests an overcapacity problem in the airline industry, which has already seen several airlines collapse in recent months.

Updated

If the City predictions are correct, the UK’s jobless rate will remain at its lowest level since Harold Wilson was prime minister in 1975.

Updated

Introduction: UK jobs report and German ZEW survey

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.

A flurry of fresh economic data from the UK, Germany and the US will give us a fresh insight into the health of the global economy today.

In the UK, the big event will be the unemployment report for the three months to February. It’s likely to show the jobless rate has stuck at its lowest level in over 40 years at just 3.9%, in the face of relentless Brexit drama.

Wage growth (excluding bonuses) is also expected to hold steady at 3.4%, meaning earnings would be outpacing inflation.

Marc Ostwald of ADM Investor Service predicts that UK firms also kept hiring workers, though at a slower rate than last year.

For all the chatter about weak and/or cautious UK business investment, restrained by a lack of clarity on Brexit outcomes, the UK labour has proved impressively resilient, and today’s report is not expected to alter that perception.

Employment is seen posting a solid 171K gain, slower than the prior 222K but nevertheless strong, and Average Weekly Earnings are forecast to hold around their post GFC cyclical highs at 3.5% y/y headline and 3.4% ex-Bonus, while Vacancies seem likely to remain very robust, having posted a new all-time / cyclical high of 870K in January.

A particularly strong jobs report could pile pressure on the Bank of England to consider raising interest rates, while a weak report may create concerns that the economy is faltering.

The latest survey of German economic sentiment, from the ZEW Institute, could also move the markets. Economists predicts that investors and analysts will be gloomier about the current economic situation, but more optimistic about future prospects.

A new healthcheck on the US manufacturing sector is expected to show a small pick-up in industrial production last month, up 0.2% despite the US-China trade war.

On the City front, security firm (and takeover target) G4S is reporting results, along with fashion chain JD Sports, retailer Card Factory, recruitment firm Hays and construction firm Galliford Try.

The agenda

  • 9.30am BST: UK unemployment and earnings report
  • 10am BST: ZEW index of German investor confidence
  • 2.15pm BST: US manufacturing report

Updated

 

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