Graeme Wearden 

UK factories hit by falling orders; Jamie Oliver restaurant crisis – as it happened

Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news, as UK factory orders slow and Jamie Oliver’s restaurant chain slides into administration
  
  

A worker inspecting the head of a drilling machine on the production line at a factory in Derbyshire.
A worker inspecting the head of a drilling machine on the production line at a factory in Derbyshire. Photograph: Patrick Bolger/Bloomberg

Finally, stock markets are holding onto their earlier gains - on hopes that the US-China trade war might cool.

In New York the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 168 points, or 0.65%, at 25,848, while the Nasdaq has gained more than 1.12%.

European stocks closer higher, with Germany’s DAX up 0.85% and the French CAC gaining 0.5%. The FTSE 100 had a more muted day, dogged by Brexit uncertainty it ended just 18 points higher at 7328.

Goodnight. GW

In Scunthorpe, British Steel workers face another night of worry as the company’s future hangs in the balance.

One told us:

“I’m worried sick and absolutely petrified. I’ve got three kids at home. We don’t know anything, we only know what we’re finding out off the news.”

My colleague Sarah Butler has written about what went wrong at Jamie Oliver’s restaurant business. Here’s a flavour:

The more mass market Jamie’s Italian was founded by Oliver and his Italian mentor, chef Gennaro Contaldo, in Oxford in 2008. The concept was an instant hit, with diners queueing around the block, and the group went on to open dozens around the country.

However, appetite for the chain waned as it faced rising competition from numerous Italian-inspired rivals such as Pizza Express, Strada and, more recently, Franco Manca.

The market has become crowded after private equity investors piled money into casual dining chains, as consumers switch spending to experiences like meals out and holidays instead of buying clothes and homewares.

But that growth has waned since 2016, as consumers have become nervous amid the uncertainty of Brexit, while the rise of delivery services such as Deliveroo and JustEat have encouraged the Netflix generation to stay at home on the sofa with a takeaway.

More here:

Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn is calling for the nationalisation of British Steel, if that’s what it takes to save the company and its workforce.

He says:

“The collapse of British Steel would have a devastating impact on thousands of jobs in Scunthorpe, and could have major knock on effects on wider supply chains.

Once again, our communities are being betrayed by a Tory government whose free market obsession is threatening Britain’s vital manufacturing base – just as they were under Margaret Thatcher..

“Britain’s proud steel industry has a major role to play in ushering in a Green Industrial Revolution, securing British manufacturing for a sustainable, green future. It needs support, not a death warrant.

“If an agreement cannot be struck with British Steel, the government must act to take a public stake in the company to secure the long term future of the steelworks and protect peoples’ livelihoods and communities.”

Summary

A quick recap

More than 1,000 jobs are being lost at Jamie Oliver’s restaurant chain, after it fell into administration today.

British Steel workers also face an uncertain future, as the government comes under pressure to provide £30m of fresh emergency assistance. Without it, the steel producer could fall into administration.

Orders at UK factories have fallen this month, as Brexit uncertainty continues to weigh on manufacturing.

The OECD has cut its forecast for global growth this year, and urged the US and China to end their trade war.

Stock markets have risen after America relaxed its new clampdown on China’s Huawei.

Administrators close 22 Jamie Oliver restaurants

Breaking: KPMG have just announced that 22 of Jamie Oliver’s restaurants are to close, following the company’s collapse into administration a few hours ago.

This means that more than 1,000 jobs will be lost, with just three outlets staying open.

Chart of the Day, to put the crisis at British Steel into context:

Tesla shares are under renewed pressure today, after an analyst group warned that problems in China could undermine its financial situation

Morgan Stanley has cut its worst-case forecast on Tesla stock from $97 to just $10, citing concerns about the company’s debt load and geopolitical exposure.

They singled out concerns around Chinese demand for Tesla products, saying:

“Our revised bear case assumes Tesla misses our current Chinese volume forecast by roughly half to account for the highly volatile trade situation in the region, particularly around areas of technology, which we believe run a high and increasing risk of government/regulatory attention.

This new ‘bear case’ has worried investors; Tesla shares have dropped by 2.5%, or $5, to just over $200 today.

Wall Street rises

The New York stock markets has opened higher, on relief that America has temporarily relaxed its ban on Huawei.

Traders are reassured that Washington has given Huawei a 90-day window to keep doing business with American firms. That cuts the risk of serious disruption, and could also provide time for a warming in US-China relations.

The Dow Jones industrial average has gained 136 points, or 0.5%, to 25,816. The broader S&P 500 index is also up 0.5%, while the technology-focused Nasdaq has gained 0.8%.

There’s a glimmer of good news for British Steel workers -- they will get paid this week.

British Steel has just confirmed that pay packets will be processed as normal, even though negotiations with the government over an emergency rescue deal are continuing.

A spokesperson says:

“We are aware of speculation that the May salaries may not be paid. For the avoidance of doubt, we can confirm that funding is in place and British Steel employees will be paid their salaries in full.

The government has told MPs it will leave “no stone unturned” as it tries to help the company, but there’s no certainty that a deal will be reached.

There was rather more drama at BP’s AGM today, up in Aberdeen, where climate emergency protesters urged the oil giant to clean up its act.

Several dozen people gathered outside the meeting, holding placards reading “BP climate criminals” and “climate emergency.”

Two women protesters got inside the meeting, but were removed by security staff after shouting “this is a crime scene” during the event.

There’s nothing like vigorous shareholder scrutiny.... and today’s annual general meeting of Metro Bank shareholders has been nothing like vigorous shareholder scrutiny.

Not a single investor asked a sharp question, or even a blunt one, at the AGM in London.

That’s astonishing, given Metro Bank’s share price has hit a record low and the company was forced to raise £350m to patch up its balance sheet after a major accounting blunder.

Shareholders could also have inquired whether Metro Bank should really have paid £21m to InterArch, the architecture firm owned by its chairman’s wife....

Rebecca Long Bailey MP, Labour’s Shadow Business Secretary, has called on the government to do more to help Britain’s high street firms, as the administrators arrive at Jamie Oliver’s restaurant chain.

“This is devastating news for workers and their families who must now be offered robust support to help them through this challenging time.

“Today’s announcement is sad. Competition on the high street should never be underestimated but it is also clear that the crisis our high streets and town centres are facing cannot have helped matters.

“Labour’s five Point Plan for the high street, such as reforming the business rates system, an empty shops register, and free buses for under 25s, will rejuvenate the high street and ensure that they remain at the heart of our communities.”

Simon Mydlowski, partner at law firm Gordons, fears that food and drink suppliers will suffer losses from this administration (they’ll join a queue of other creditors):

“A number of suppliers will have been caught unawares here, perhaps showing a little too much trust in the Jamie Oliver name, but this is not the first big restaurant chain to have suffered and it won’t be the last.

Faced with higher rent, rising food prices and increased competition, restaurants need a point of difference - it’s no coincidence that smaller brands with the freedom and flexibility to keep things fresh are currently the ones performing well.”

Observer restaurant critic Jay Raynor agrees, alas:

What now for Jamie’s Italian?

Turon Miah, senior associate at City law firm Gowling WLG, suggests that parts of the business could be spun off, or the whole enterprise could be rescued as a going concern:

“It has been almost 15 months since Jamie’s Italian chain entered into a Landlord CVA to cut down on property costs.

The CVA will have been part of a wider restructuring of the business. In spite of those steps it now appears that the business strategy has not succeeded and Administrators will be appointed. It is too early to tell whether a buyer will be found for the business as a whole or whether there will need to be a piecemeal sale of its assets.

This is the latest in a long line of high street restaurants, who in spite of having a strong brand, have not been able to maintain footfall and keep up with changing consumer dining trends. Creditors and suppliers should be considering their next steps carefully and should seek specialist insolvency advice”.

Updated

How Jamie's food empire turned sour

Jamie Oliver’s restaurant business has been struggling for a couple of years, so today’s slide into administration isn’t totally unexpected.

But it’s obviously a blow to the man himself, and hugely worrying for staff across the country.

Back in 2017, the firm closed six outlets, citing uncertain business conditions and higher ingredient costs (the weaker pound drove up import costs).

But the situation worsened... by the summer of 2018, Oliver received the shock news that his Italian business had run out of cash. He was forced to put more than £12m of his own money into the operation to keep it afloat.

The TV chef’s usual good spirits vanished, as he later fumed:

That is just not normal, in any business. You have quarterly meetings. You do board meetings. People supposed to manage that stuff should manage that stuff.

The food business is notoriously unstable -- more than 750 closed in the last 12 months.

And not everyone’s prepared to pay £9 for an octopus stew starter, or £16.50 for truffle ravioli (although a two-course set menu for £11.95 shouldn’t be sniffed at).

Oliver himself has previously blamed a “perfect storm” of problems - including rising rents, business rates, food costs and minimum wage levels, at a time when high streets are struggling.

Jamie Oliver has confirmed that his restaurant chain is heading into administration, saying:

“I am deeply saddened by this outcome and would like to thank all of the staff and our suppliers who have put their hearts and souls into this business for over a decade.

“I appreciate how difficult this is for everyone affected.

“I would also like to thank all the customers who have enjoyed and supported us over the last decade, it’s been a real pleasure serving you.

“We launched Jamie’s Italian in 2008 with the intention of positively disrupting mid-market dining in the UK high street, with great value and much higher quality ingredients, best in class animal welfare standards and an amazing team who shared my passion for great food and service. And we did exactly that.”

Jamie Oliver's restaurant empire calls in administrators

Newsflash: Celebrity chef Jamie Oliver’s restaurant empire is calling in the administrators.

My colleague Sarah Butler has the details:

The company, which includes 23 Jamie’s Italian outlets, plus the Fifteen and Barbecoa restaurants, is understood to be appointing KPMG as administrator.

The group had been seeking buyers in recent months after Oliver decided to sell up amid heavy competition in the casual dining market that has already seen chains such as Carluccio’s, Byron Burger and Gourmet Burger Kitchen close outlets.

Tom Crotty, group director of UK chemicals giant INEOS, says the ongoing Brexit crisis is hurting British industry:

“Manufacturers are being forced into putting huge amounts of money and resources into contingency planning that could have been spent on creating jobs or making investments in new technology. This relentless Brexit uncertainty must be lifted as a matter of urgency.

“As long as the deadlock continues, the sector is being held back from solving long-term challenges such as raising productivity and addressing skills shortages.”

UK order books shrink, but Brexit stockpiling continues

Newsflash: UK factories have suffered a slump in orders, as Brexit uncertainty and trade conflicts hurt the sector.

The CBI’s latest healthcheck on British manufacturing, just released, shows that order books deteriorated in May. The number of companies reporting that orders had fallen, rather than risen, hit the highest level in two and a half years.

Export orders also declined - with the weakest reading in almost three years.

Firm also reported that their stocks of finished goods are at a decade-high. That follows months of Brexit stockpiling due to fears of a no-deal crisis.

Here’s the key findings from the report:

  • 23% of manufacturers reported total order books to be above normal, and 32% said they were below normal, giving a rounded balance of -10% (from -5% in April). This was the lowest balance since October 2016, but still broadly in line with the long-run average (-13%)
  • 13% of firms said their export order books were above normal, and 30% said they were below normal, giving a rounded balance of -16% (from -5% in April) – broadly in line with the long-run average of -17% but the lowest balance since July 2016
  • 36% of businesses said the volume of output over the past three months was up, and 23% said it was down, giving a rounded balance of +14%. This rate of growth was broadly steady on April (+11%) and quicker than the long-run average (+4%)
  • Manufacturers expect output to be broadly flat in the coming quarter, with 27% predicting growth, and 24% a decline, giving a balance of +3%
  • Expectations for growth in average selling prices for the coming three months (-1%) were at their lowest balance since March 2016
  • 35% of firms said their present stocks of finished goods were more than adequate, whilst 9% said they were less than adequate, giving a balance of 25% – the highest balance since March 2009 and noticeably above the long-run average (+13%).

The OECD is very clear that the US-China trade war is thoroughly bad news for global growth, as these tweets show:

The OECD has also produced this charts, showing how the ongoing trade war has already hurt the world economy.

Laurence Boone, OECD Chief Economist, explains:

Trade tensions have disrupted growth. With uncertainty high and confidence low, investment has suffered, and the manufacturing sector has taken a hit.

The OECD’s chief economist, Laurence Boone, fears that trade tensions are destabilising the “fragile global economy”.

Speaking in Paris, she says:

“Growth is stabilising but the economy is weak and there are very serious risks on the horizon. Governments need to work harder together to ensure a return to stronger and more sustainable growth,”

OECD: US-China trade dispute is top threat to growth

Newsflash: The OECD has urged the US and China to end their trade war, before more damage is done to the global economy.

The Paris-based thinktank has just released its latest economic outlook, and warned that the trade dispute between Beijing and Washington is the principle threat to growth.

The OECD has now cut its estimate for global growth in 2019 to 3.2%, from 3.3%, and warned:

Global growth slowed sharply in late 2018 and is now stabilising at a moderate level. Escalating trade conflicts and dangerous financial vulnerabilities threaten a new weakening of activity by undermining investment and confidence worldwide.

The global economy is expected to achieve moderate but fragile growth over the coming two years. Vulnerabilities stem from trade tensions, high policy uncertainty, risks in financial markets and a slowdown in China, all of which could further curb strong and sustainable medium-term growth worldwide.

It fears that an intensification of the dispute between Washington and Beijing would likely knock as much as 0.7% off the level of global GDP by 2021-22.

The OECD has cut its growth forecasts for many advanced and emerging economies this morning, including Australia, Canada, Japan, Argentina and Brazil.

But it has raised its forecasts for the UK (to 1.2% growth this year, up from an unduly gloomy 0.8% before).

Pound hit by Brexit worries

The pound is suffering another bout of Brexit Blues this morning.

Sterling has fallen to a four-month low against the dollar this morning, dropping below $1.27 for the first time since mid-January.

It’s also down against the euro, for the 12th day in a row!

The slide comes as cabinet ministers prepare to discuss Theresa May’s final push to get her Withdrawal Agreement through parliament early next month.

This appears doomed to failure, with the Leader of the House of Commons Andrea Leadsom warning she won’t support any plan that includes a customs union.

If (or perhaps when) May’s deal is rejected again, she will be under immense pressure to step aside. With Brexiteers such as Boris Johnson and Dominic Raab among the favourites to replace the PM, fears of a hard Brexit are risin,.

Hamish Muress, currency analyst at OFX, says sterling is under pressure on two fronts:

The pound has recently found itself stuck between a rock and a hard place, suffering from the renewed uncertainty of Brexit, while investors flood to the relatively safer US dollar amidst the ongoing trade war.

“Looking forward, headwinds look stronger than tailwinds for the pound, particularly with another Brexit vote not set to take place for a few weeks yet. But perhaps the only real hope would come from Donald Trump pressing the pause button with regards to the trade war.”

Back in the UK, the future of British Steel has been plunged into fresh uncertainty.

Unless the government steps in with £30m of new funding, parts of the company could slump into administration - putting thousands of jobs at risk.

My colleague Julia Kollewe explains:

The UK’s second-largest steel producer is preparing to call in administrators on Wednesday unless the government steps in with a loan on Tuesday.

British Steel, which is owned by private equity group Greybull Capital, has been scrambling to secure a £75m rescue package to stave off insolvency. Greybull and the company’s lenders have agreed to inject £30m into the company.

British Steel is asking the British government for a £30m loan rather than the £75m originally requested.

As well as the trade war, China is also facing a nasty outbreak of African swine fever.

ASF is sweeping across the country, meaning millions of animals have either died of the disease or been culled in an attempt to stop its spread.

This is hitting supplies in the world’s biggest pork market -- and British meat processor Cranswick is benefitting.

Cranswick has told shareholders that exports to the the Far East have jumped by 16%, and prices are strengthening too. Good news for overseas pork producers, but a blow to Chinese consumers.

Cranswick says:

ASF has now spread to every province in China and throughout Southeast Asia, disrupting the local pork industry.

It is estimated that between 10 and 35 per cent of the Chinese herd has been lost, resulting in a potential pork supply shortfall of 16 million tonnes per year, with export prices strengthening considerably in the second half of the year as a direct result.

Investors should brace for more turbulence as the US-China trade spat rumbles on, warns Neil Wilson of Markets.com:

After blacklisting Huawei, the White House has issued three-month reprieve to allow US companies continue to do business with the group. It’s all rather like the way Trump slaps on tariffs but delays the execution to allow room for negotiation.

Whether it’s Huawei or tariffs, I would see all of this in the broader context of giant tug-of-war between the two superpowers being played out in front our eyes. As such, the more this goes on the lower the chance of a meaningful resolution to any of it. Trade disputes ad infinitum, ad nauseum.

Huawei’s founder has also hit out at America, saying it “underestimates our strength”.

Ren Zhengfei claimed that his firm’s strong lead in next-generation mobile technology means it can’t be easily caught - even if it’s restricted from buying US chips.

Zhengfei said:

“Huawei’s 5G will absolutely not be affected. In terms of 5G technologies, others won’t be able to catch up with Huawei in two or three years.

Europe’s chipmakers are leading the rally this morning, as trade war fears ease (a little).

The technology sector is outperforming the rest of the sector, up 0.75%, after semiconductor-makers suffered their worst day of 2019 on Monday.

European stock markets are open, and posting some gains after yesterday’s selloff.

In London the FTSE 100 is up 31 points, or over 0.4%, clawing back Monday’s losses.

Germany’s DAX has gained 0.5% -- some relief after the 1.5% lost yesterday.

Alex Kuptsikevich, the FxPro financial analyst, warns traders to remain cautious - Beijing could easily retaliate at any time.

Up to now, the Chinese side is limited to harsh rhetoric.

Nevertheless, the last turn of the trade wars provoked a market reaction in the form of key indices decline, which increased the demand for US government bonds and defensive yen and franc.

China's stocks rally

Traders in China have hailed Washington’s decision to allow US companies to keep doing business with Huawei for the next three months.

The Shanghai composite index has gained more than 1%, and there are gains in South Korea (+0.5%) and Australia (+0.4%) too.

David Madden of CMC Markets says:

Chinese stocks traded higher overnight as trade tensions cooled a little after the US commerce department granted Huawei a 90 day licence to assist existing customers, and this gave markets some much needed breathing space.

US relaxes Huawei restrictions as China threatens to hit back

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.

Tensions between the US and China remains the top issue worrying investors, as fears growth that the trade war will morph into a tech war too.

Overnight, the US has rowed back some of the sanctions imposed on Huawei last week, having possibly realised that the restrictions may have gone too far.

The Chinese telecoms giant has now been given 90 days to purchase American-made goods in order to maintain existing networks and provide software updates to existing Huawei handsets.

Commerce secretary Wilbur Ross said this new licence will allow US companies to keep doing business with Huawei for the next three months:

“The temporary general licence grants operators time to make other arrangements and the [commerce] department space to determine the appropriate long term measures for Americans and foreign telecommunications providers that currently rely on Huawei equipment for critical services.”

That reverses (if only temporarily) the blacklisting of Huawei announced just last week, which prevented it buying equipment from American firms, or selling its services in the US.

The move is bringing some calm to the markets, which were rattled yesterday after Google dramatically suspended support for Huawei.

The move should help third-parties who rely on Huawei’s equipment as they scramble to find alternative suppliers. Otherwise, some smaller telcos could suffer network outages

It may also deter Beijing from hitting back at US companies.

Yesterday, China’s ambassador to the European Union condemned America’s “wrong behaviour”, and vowed to respond.

Zhang Ming called Donald Trump’s moves “politically motivated” and an “abuse of export-control measures, telling Bloomberg:

“Chinese companies’ legitimate rights and interests are being undermined, so the Chinese government will not sit idly by.”

Anxiety over the Huawei crisis hit technology stocks yesterday, sending America’s Nasdaq index sliding by almost 1.5%.

But shares have jumped in China overnight, and we’re expecting a positive open in Europe too:

Also coming up today

Europe’s top economic thinktank, the OECD, will issues its latest economic outlook this morning. Trade tensions are likely to feature highly.

Plus, we get a new healthcheck on Britain’s factories.

The agenda

  • 10am GMT: OECD publishes new economic outlook
  • 11am GMT: CBI’s latest monthly industrial trends survey

Updated

 

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