Graeme Wearden 

Pound volatile as no-deal Brexit risks rise – as it happened

Sterling is under pressure after Theresa May announces she’ll resign in June, paving the way for a Brexiteer successor
  
  

The City of London
The City of London Photograph: Amer Ghazzal/REX/Shutterstock

Time to wrap up, with the City heading home for the weekend.

It’s still all go in Westminster, though - our Politics Liveblog has the latest:

Goodnight! GW

Grim news from the high street -- Philip Green is planning deeper job cuts than first thought as he tries to rescue his Arcadia empire.

My colleagues Zoe Wood and Sarah Butler have the story:

The number of stores set to close as part of Philip Green’s rescue plan for his Arcadia retail empire will be substantially higher than the 23 previously thought, with the Evans and Miss Selfridge store chains set to bear the brunt.

The number of closures will be at least double the number set out in the rescue documents, resulting in several hundred more job losses, in addition to the 520 announced on Thursday.

The fresh blow to the high street coming from Arcadia came as MP Frank Field, chairman of the work and pensions select committee, wrote to Green to ask him to personally fill a huge gap, of up to £750m, in the Arcadia pension fund.

Here’s the full story:

In choppy trading, the pound has now popped back over $1.27 against the US dollar.

It’s also staging a late fightback against the euro - now around €1.133.

That means sterling is clawing itself away from this lunchtime’s four-month lows.

But it’s still sharply lower than a couple of weeks ago, due to anxiety over the possibility of a no-deal Brexit

The team at Royal Bank of Canada explain why:

With Theresa May’s announcement that she will step down as prime minister on June 7th, the competition to succeed her will now begin in earnest even if the Tory party leadership contest won’t officially begin until after that date.

With May’s departure looking inevitable for some time now, markets’ focus had already switched to her successor and his/her likely Brexit strategy.

The initial take has been that May’s departure would make a no-deal Brexit more likely, especially as it looks very likely that she will be replaced by a candidate promising a harder form of Brexit, including the hardest form of Brexit of all, a no-deal one.

At the moment, the focus is firmly on Boris Johnson who is the clear front-runner to succeed May.

The week is over, at least in the City of London.

Britain’s blue-chip FTSE 100 index has ended the day 46 points higher, or up 0.65%. That’s around half of yesterday’s sell offs (triggered by trade war worries), leaving the Footsie at 7,277 points.

Business leaders have a clear message for Theresa’s May’s successor - end the Brexit deadlock and avoid a messy no-deal crisis.

In a blow to efforts to tackle the climate emergency, the number of flights in UK airspace is hitting a record high today:

The pound could fall to its lowest levels in over 30 years if a no-deal Brexit looks likely:

Donald Trump’s suggestion that Huawei could be part of a US-China trade deal is pushing shares higher, says Ken Odeluga of City Index.

He writes:

  • Trump’s hint that banned Huawei might be a topic incorporated into a subsequent U.S.-China trade deal was cue for another flood of bargain stock picking in European techs – slanted towards semiconductors and hardware
  • However China-dependent mining stocks and shares in the broad industrials sphere, like aerospace groups, outperformed, taking each of their STOXX sub-sector indices up 1%

Wall Street has opened higher, as traders look to end the week on a positive note.

The Dow Jones industrial average has risen by 130 points or 0.5% to 25,621 points.

The pound’s weakness is pushing Britain’s FSE 100 share index higher (as a weaker currency pushes up the value of overseas earnings).

The Footsie is now up 67 points, or 0.93%, at 7298.

Reuters has the details of Boris Johnson’s comments on Brexit (made at a conference in Interlaken):

Britain should be prepared to walk out of the European Union without a deal if it is to negotiate a suitable exit agreement, British lawmaker and prime minister hopeful Boris Johnson said on Friday.

“We will leave the EU on October 31, deal or no deal,” Johnson told an economic conference in Switzerland.

“The way to get a good deal is to prepare for a no deal,” said Johnson, a prominent leader of the Brexit campaign and former foreign minister who has said he wants to replace Prime Minister Theresa May as leader of the ruling Conservative Party.

Boris fears send pound below €1.13

Ouch! The pound just hit a new four-month low against the euro, dropping below €1.13 for the first time since 21 January.

Traders appear to be reacting to newsflashes from Boris Johnson.

The former foreign secretary has apparently said Britain will leave the EU in October, with or without a deal (when the current extension expires).

Updated

The pound’s early rally is fading.... it’s now slightly down against the euro at €1.1308, having already fallen for 14 days in a row.

This comes as the chances of Boris Johnson becoming prime minister rises

Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management, says the next PM might soon be on the campaign trail.

We now see a rising chance that the UK will be compelled to ask the EU for a further delay to Brexit, the third time the deadline has been pushed back.

This would, in turn, raise the probability of a snap general election or second Brexit referendum.”

Charles Hepworth, investment director at asset manager GAM, also predicts that the pound will struggle this summer, as the battle for the keys to Downing Street rages.

“As Theresa May’s immovable Brexit plan finally collides with the unstoppable force of Parliament and its voting arithmetic, her resilience has finally waned. Her resignation in two weeks’ time means that she will have held office for just a few days longer than Gordon Brown and her failure to deliver on the Conservative party’s Brexit promise means that we must now face the likelihood of a hard Brexiteer successor as PM – with odds on Boris Johnson as the most likely candidate.

“The Pound Sterling has already discounted this to some degree, falling to levels seen in the immediate aftermath of the referendum in 2016 - and the decline is almost entirely due to the lingering effects of economic slowdown and the increased likelihood of a no-deal Brexit. However, the outcome has not been entirely accounted for, as whoever wins the Tory leadership race will still have to force their Brexit vision through an unwilling parliament and so the obscurity around Brexit continues.

“These obstacles mean that Sterling is likely to come under further pressure and the UK economy can be expected to slow as the political landscape remains impossible to predict.”

The US stock market is still expected to open a little higher...

Guy Foster of wealth managers Brewin Dolphin, suspects Britain will soon turn to a general election to (possibly) break the Brexit deadlock.

He warns that hoping May’s resignation ends the impasse would “raise optimism to an art form”.....

While Theresa May’s departure means we are heading in a new direction, that direction is not necessarily forward. Eventually a new leader may be able to galvanise support around a specific path, but it is difficult to anticipate that at this stage.

In the meantime, however, no matter your view of the efficacy of government, it is reasonable to be concerned that our lack of effective government may eventually have economic consequences.”

Here’s the other key points:

  • The PM’s departure marks the end of the beginning of the UK’s political dysfunction
  • Without a workable majority or coalition the government can’t function, meaning an election at last seems to be inevitable
  • But a general election is unlikely to yield a government with either a majority, or even a strong sense of party unity
  • Political risks continue to weigh on the pound and could eventually dent the robust economy
  • House price weakness in London is beginning to ripple out to other parts of the country
  • Global stocks continue to protect investors against the impact of our domestic challenges

A renewed Brexit crisis could grip the economy this coming autumn, fears Helen Dickinson OBE, chief executive of the British Retail Consortium.

She fears it could mess up retailers’ planning for Christmas - with warehouses already groaning under the weight of stock-piling.

“There are only five months before Britain crashes out of the EU without a deal, causing prices to rise and reducing the availability of many goods on the shelves.

A no deal Brexit in October would present the worst of all worlds for our high streets and those who shop there. Retailers will be preparing for Christmas, stretching already limited warehousing capacity, and the UK will be importing the majority of its fresh food from the EU, magnifying the impact of border delays.

Uncertainty is no friend of the markets, or businesses. But investors and bosses now face two months of confusion as the battle to succeed Theresa May plays out.

A new prime minister will probably be in place by the end of July, so firms may hold off big decisions until the Conservative Party members have made their choice.

Jake Robbins, fund manager at Premier Asset Management, fears that UK economic growth will stumble -- especially as the US-China trade war rages.

“The hope of a compromise and a Brexit deal that kept the UK close to the EU, even with perhaps a custom union to minimise trade disruption, seems to have now dissipated with the departure of Theresa May. With Parliament apparently against leaving without a deal, but incapable of agreeing on anything else, then the UK seems to be doomed to remain in limbo for some time to come.

“The biggest problem for the UK is the uncertainty and the effect that this has on business confidence and investment decisions. Whilst GDP growth has held up fairly well since the referendum, and even accelerated so far this year, the real impact will be felt now that a hard Brexit seems far more likely under a new PM.

“Whilst the pound may look cheap by historic standards, the uncertainty around the terms of trade with the EU and, almost as importantly, the cold trade war that appears to be developing between the US and China, makes the UK’s position look fairly fragile. Who really fancies entering trade negotiations with either the US or China under the current circumstances?

Despite bouncing back over $1.27, the pound is still close to its lowest level this year.

As this chart shows, it has shed nearly five cents since early May, as the Brexit crisis roared back into the headlines this month.

Chris Towner, Director at financial risk advisor JCRA, says uncertainty over Theresa May’s future caused the damage:

“Over the last few weeks Sterling has dropped as speculation has intensified that Theresa May needed to resign in order to clear the way for a new leader. This yet again increases the uncertainty. The chances of further delay to Brexit have now increased but so too have the chances of a hard Brexit.

“Although widely expected as she approached the podium, Sterling still managed to trade frenetically for a short period of time, before dropping back to a more settled level. Sterling is acting like a rabbit caught in the headlights. Unable to jump up or down.

The US stock market is expected to follow Europe’s lead - it’s called up 0.6% in pre-market trading (having shed 1.1% yesterday).

Moody's: No-deal Brexit risks have risen

Sarah Carlson, Moody’s Senior Vice President, has warned that no-deal Brexit risks are rising.

She says:

“Prime Minister May’s announcement today that she will resign on 7 June further amplifies the uncertainty around Brexit; the uncertainty around Brexit is clearly credit negative, weighing on investment and hiring decisions and ultimately growth.

The Prime Minister’s resignation also increases the risk of a no-deal Brexit that, as we have said before, would have significant negative effects on both the UK sovereign and a range of other issuers.”

That last line basically means Moody’s would probably slash the UK’s credit rating if it crashes out of the EU without a deal, closely followed by the banks.

Theresa May’s resignation hasn’t dented today’s stock market rally.

The FTSE 100 index is ending a volatile week on the front foot, now up 50 points at 7280 (but still 70-points down on the week).

Every sector is higher, as investors grip tightly onto hopes that the US and China could carve up a trade deal following Donald Trump’s comments overnight.

The pound’s muted reaction to Theresa May’s resignation highlights that her successor will face much the same problems as she did.

David Owen, chief European economist at investment bank Jefferies, says the make-up of the next cabinet will be crucial.

“So much will depend on not just who becomes the next Leader of the Tory Party and Prime Minister, but the team that is appointed. A senior team comprising One Nation Tories would be very different to that comprising Ultras.

As things stand, a further extension of Article 50 will be necessary. If this does end up in another vote, this will take at least 22 weeks to organise, which takes us likely beyond 31 October. Constitutionally, it will now be easier for any government intent on a No Deal Brexit to push this through – but the Parliamentary arithmetic has not and will not change.”

Dean Popplewell of trading firm OANDA says the political drama will keep the pound volatile in the next few months:

Sterling’s record losing streak combined with the growing risks that Brexit will see a hard exit, is making fund managers abandon long-term ‘bullish’ bets. Just a few months ago, the base case was that Brexit would be delivered by PM May and that it would be a soft exit.

However, if we do see Boris Johnson, the current oddsmaker favorite, become Theresa May’s successor, we could see the ‘hardest’ Brexit occur. The pound (£1.2645), which is currently atop of its four-month lows, could see further pressure to target the psychological £1.2000 level and eventually the 2016 lows. A no-deal Brexit and a general election risks are likely to keep the pound under pressure.

But a weaker than expected showing for the Brexit party in the EU elections could potentially provide some relief for sterling, particularly if the Liberal Democrats perform strongly. A new Tory leader that is less of a Brexiteer than the likes of Boris Johnson could also see a modest bounce in the pair.

Updated

Larry for leader?

Pound briefly bounces as Theresa May announces resignation plan

Prime minister Theresa May has announced that she will step down as leader of the Conservative and Unionist Party on 7th June.

That will trigger a leadership battle, with Brexiteers such as Boris Johnson and Dominic Raab seen as the early favourites. May will continue as prime minister until the process is concluded.

Speaking outside 10 Downing Street, May said she deeply regrets not getting her Brexit deal through parliament, despite trying three times.

May also flagged up that her successor will need to compromise to resolve the Brexit deadlock.

She revealed that Kindertransport hero Sir Nicholas Winton, who rescued hundreds of children from Czechoslovakia before world war two, once told her to “never forget that compromise is not a dirty word. Life depends on compromise”

This news has pushed sterling back over $1.27 briefly, but the pound almost immediately fell back. Investors are pondering what happens now, and whether Britain is heading towards a no-deal Brexit.

Ruth Gregory of Capital Economics isn’t too impressed by today’s UK retail sales figures:

April’s retail sales figures were better than most had feared, but nonetheless suggest that GDP growth will be weaker in Q2 than in Q1. Flat retail sales were better than it sounds following the surge in high-street spending over the previous three months and was rather higher than the consensus forecast for a fall of 0.3%. What’s more, sales growth was revised up in January and March.

Admittedly, sales volumes might have been weaker had retailers not discounted over the Easter period. Indeed, the Office for National Statistics attributed some of the chunky 2.3% monthly rise in clothing sales to this factor as well as the unusually warm weather. Retail inflation dipped from 0.7% to 0.2%, its lowest since late-2016. Meanwhile, spending off the high street may also have been fairly soft. Indeed, car registrations have continued to plunge in April, while the Bank of England’s Agents reported a slight deterioration in the turnover of consumer services firms.

Lee McDarby, Corporate IP managing director at moneycorp, says today’s retail sales figures show that British consumers are defying Brexit uncertainty. Retailers, though, are finding life tough.

The surprisingly upbeat retail sales figures are down to sustained online spending, perhaps boosted by falling unemployment.

A close look at the detail shows high street chains and department store sales are struggling, reflecting the store closure and job loss headlines we’ve seen recently.”

On an annual basis, UK shoppers bought 5.2% more stuff in April than in April 2018.

That suggests consumers haven’t been spooked by the Brexit crisis, and have continued to spend.

That may reflect the pick-up in wage growth earlier this year.

UK retail sales supported by clothes sales

Just in: UK retail sales were flat in April, compared to March.

The Office for National Statistics reports that consumers bought more clothing, fuel, and online shopping items last month -- but this was offset by falls in all other main sectors.

That’s down from 1.2% growth in March, but a little better than City economists expected.

Over the last three months, retail sales volumes are up by 1.8% year-on-year -- partly driven by people buying summer clothes on the internet (remember, it was unusually hot in February).

The ONS says:

Online retailers selling clothing items were the driver to this growth, with the warm weather helping to boost sales.

Updated

China’s Commerce Ministry has issued a gloomy assessment of its economy.

It warns that the domestic economy still faces “downward pressures”, and that the trade environment is growing “more uncertain and challenging”.

Shipping group Maersk warns China-US tariffs could hurt growth

The world’s largest container shipping line has warned that the trade war is hurting economic activity.

AP Moller-Maersk told shareholders that global container trade growth slowed in the last quarter, to 1.7%, down from 3.6% in 2018.

It fears that growth in 2019 will be between 1% and 3%, with the tariffs imposed by the US and China weakening demand.

It told investors:

Aside from the cyclical slowing of the global economy, the main risks to global container demand relate to the US-China trade negotiations.

The recent escalation of the trade-war induced by an increase in tariff rates and threats of implementing additional tariffs could take global container trade growth to the lower end of the 1-3% interval.

Other risk to the outlook relates to the effectiveness of fiscal and monetary stimuli in major economies, such as the US and China. Emerging economies are particularly vulnerable via their financial leverage to fluctuations in the US dollar and to the economic development in the US. Finally, the outcome of the Brexit negotiations poses a risk to UK and European container trade.

Every cloud has a silver lining and all that...

Boing! European stock markets have made a spritely start to trading, after some whopping losses yesterday.

The FTSE 100 has gained 40 points (having lost 103 on Thursday) or 0.56%.

The French CAC and the German DAX are both up around 0.6%.

Connor Campbell of SpreadEx says Donald Trump’s comments on Huawei are helping push shares higher.

While labelling Huawei as ‘something that is very dangerous’, the President nevertheless went on to state that it is possible the tech company would ‘be included in some kind of trade deal’.

That confusing statement potentially pushes open, however slightly, a door that was about to slam shut, and makes June’s G20 summit in Osaka even more interesting.

Trump’s suggestion that Huawei could be part of a trade deal has brought some calm to the markets.

China’s CSI 300 index has inched higher today, closing 0.3% higher at 3,593 points. That’s rather better than Thursday’s 1.8% tumble.

Japan’s market was calm too, with the Nikkei dipping by just 0.16%.

South Korea’s KOSPI, though, fell by 0.75% amid worries that its technology sector will suffer from the trade war.

China’s government has had enough of American politicians bad-mouthing Huawei.

Foreign ministry spokesman Lu Kang has just told reporters in Beijing that certain US politicians are making all kinds of rumours, but not providing evidence.

He’s responding to US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, who claimed on Thursday that Huawei’s CEO had lied about his company’s ties to the Beijing government.

Introduction: Trump on 'very dangerous' Huawei

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.

The trade war between the US and China continues to weigh heavily on investors minds, after a week of market turbulence. Shares fell heavily in Asia, Europe and the US yesterday, as investors fretted that a deal will not be reached soon.

But overnight, Donald Trump has floated the prospect that Huawei - the embattled mobile tech firm - could be part of a trade deal, despite all America’s concerns that the company is a security risk.

Speaking to reporters, Trump declared:

“Huawei is something that is very dangerous.

“You look at what they’ve done from a security standpoint, a military standpoint. Very dangerous.”

But despite these concerns, the dealmaker-in-chief then suggested that Huawei could be a pawn in a wider trade deal between Washington and Beijing to end the dispute.

“It’s possible that Huawei even would be included in some kind of trade deal.

If we made a deal, I can imagine Huawei being included in some form of, some part of a trade deal.”

That might reassure officials in China, or it might simply confuse them. How could America cut a deal with Huawei when it’s just blacklisted it from accessing US technology, a severe blow to its business?

The clue is that America’s economy is also suffering from the trade war. Trump announced $16bn of extra funding for US agriculture last night, to cushion the impact of tariffs on their sales to China. Upsetting farmers is rarely a good idea, especially with an election coming up....

Also coming up today

The last act of Theresa May’s troubled premiership will play out today. The PM is expected to announce she’s standing down next month, after losing the support of many colleagues.

Brexit fears has pushed the pound down to four-month lows week, but sterling is actually flat this morning at €1.132 against the euro, and up a bit against the dollar at $1.268. City traders have worked out it will take more than a change of leader to end the crisis.

The pound could be moved by today’s economic data - both the Office for National Statistics and the CBI are releasing retail sales figures this morning (for different months, just to add to the fun).

Otherwise it’s quiet in the City, with engineering firm Bodycote and parenting chain Mothercare reporting results.

The agenda

  • 9.30am BST: ONS retail sales for April
  • 11am BST: CBI ‘distributive trades’ report for May
 

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