Gwyn Topham Transport correspondent 

HS2: how far has work got, and why might it be scrapped?

Billions of pounds have been spent and preparatory work done but no tracks laid
  
  

old oak common
Train depots and industrial estates have been razed to build another HS2 station at Old Oak Common. Photograph: Graeme Robertson/The Guardian

Why is Britain building HS2?

With booming numbers of passengers on the railways from the late 1990s, the industry and Whitehall looked for ways to increase capacity. A brand new high-speed line running north-south was seen as the most efficient way to deliver more intercity services, with least disruption, and free up more space for commuter trains. The HS2 project’s backers say it will cut congestion and journey times, and bring huge numbers of jobs and investment around the country.

When did the project start?

Officially launched by Labour in 2009, it was reviewed and tweaked by the coalition government and green-lighted in 2012 as a Y-shaped network linking the capital with Birmingham, Manchester and Leeds. Overwhelming cross-party support in parliament for phase one of the project, building the high-speed line from London to Birmingham, led to the bill receiving royal assent in 2017.

What is the budget?

Initially, it was set at £32.7bn for the entire network, including the second phase to Manchester and Leeds. But a year later, in 2013, the government admitted that it would cost almost £50bn, including new trains, revised up to £55.7bn in 2015 to account for inflation. That figure remains the official budget, although critics have suggested that it could double, while leaks from ongoing budget reviews at HS2 Ltd have pointed at a £70-80bn figure.

(January 1, 2009) 

High Speed Two Ltd is set up by the Labour government to examine possibilities for increasing high-speed rail capacity in the UK.

(March 1, 2010) 

The project is split into two phases - London to Birmingham forms phase one, with phase two extending the route to Manchester and Leeds.

(January 10, 2012) 

The transport secretary, Conservative Justine Greening, announces the decision to build HS2.

(April 1, 2012) 

A judicial review is called into the HS2 decision.

(March 15, 2013) 

Lord Justice Ouseley upholds one of the 10 grounds for complaint about HS2 in the judicial review – the claim that the government had acted unfairly and unlawfully when consulting on compensation for homeowners affected by the route.

(November 3, 2013) 

The Conservative prime minister, David Cameron, describes the project as "absolutely vital" as MPs approve funding. The high-speed rail (London-West Midlands) bill is formally introduced in parliament.

(June 1, 2015) 

After freedom of information requests, a 2012 Department for Transport viability report into HS2 is released, revealing the department considered it unaffordable.

(December 21, 2018) 

Allan Cook replaces Sir Terry Morgan as chair of HS2, after the latter fails to deliver the opening of the Crossrail project in London on schedule.

(March 1, 2019) 

A report from the New Economics Foundation suggests HS2 will deliver the most benefit to London, and exacerbate regional inequality.

(August 21, 2019) 

A fresh government review begins into HS2 into whether the scheme should be approved, amended or scrapped entirely.

(September 3, 2019) 

The Conservative transport secretary, Grant Shapps, announces that full HS2 services between London and Birmingham will be delayed by up to five years to 2031, and that the final completion of the northern section of the high-speed rail network would likely be delayed by seven years until 2040. He also confirmed the budget had escalated from the official £56bn at 2015 prices to up to £88bn at today’s prices.

(February 11, 2020) 

After a period of review, prime minister Boris Johnson announces that HS2 will go ahead, alongside a package of measures aimed at improving bus and cycling links outside of London.

How far has work got?

Much of the work done so far has been on paper: detailed engineering designs of the length of the route, years of public consultation, and legislation. Buying land along the route, either for direct demolition or to relieve blighted homeowners, has accounted for a large total of the £7.4bn invested to date.

In terms of physical activity, so-called preparatory works have started, although no track or tunnel has yet been built. At the southern end, HS2 has demolished housing estates, parks and office blocks around Euston, and started moving tens of thousands of skeletons out of the way. Train depots and industrial estates have been razed to build another HS2 station at Old Oak Common, while brownfield sites in Birmingham have been levelled for the Curzon Street station and approach. According to HS2, work has taken place at 250 sites, including archaeological digs and tree planting as well as construction.

Why are people so opposed?

While the majority of homes and businesses earmarked for demolition were near Euston, and have already been vacated, constituencies along the route will be bisected and fear disruption during construction as well as the eventual train noise. Swathes of ancient woodland will be threatened, despite mitigation and tree planting. Although originally seen as a greener alternative to domestic flights, its environmental credentials have been battered, and now the Green party – along with Ukip and the Brexit party – want it scrapped.

The enormous price tag has been criticised from the start, with many querying whether the money could be better spent elsewhere – even within rail – while high salaries, the scandal of unauthorised redundancy payments, and claims by whistleblowers of mismanagement have all fuelled suspicions that the budget would spiral further.

hs2 graphic

Could it be scrapped now?

Yes – and particularly, the second phase in the north, where legislation has yet to pass. It would also be easier to scrap before notice to proceed on major civil engineering contracts, first announced in 2017 but whose final sign-off has been delayed due to budget wrangles.

But the relative cost and benefits of scrapping or even curbing the scheme will pose tough questions for the review. Building only the first phase from London to Birmingham could be the easiest option now, but it is also the worst option in terms of value for money. Investment is needed in the north, and northern city leaders have been the most vocal supporters of HS2, a scheme which transport planners also see as underpinning Northern Powerhouse Rail plans. Existing links between Birmingham and Leeds via the East Midlands are also particularly poor.

 

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