The Bank of England governor, Mark Carney, has challenged the dollar’s position as the world’s reserve currency, arguing that it could be replaced by a global digital alternative to end a savings glut that resulted in 10 years of low inflation and ultra-low interest rates.
Likening the move to the end of sterling’s command of international money markets 100 years ago, Carney said the dollar had reached a level of dominance that meant it was a barrier to a sustainable recovery.
He said a new digital currency backed by a large group of nations would unlock dollar funds that governments currently hoard as an insurance policy in uncertain times.
Governments stockpile dollars to insure against swings in the US economy, which in recent times have intensified, leading to a significant rise in the cost of borrowing.
A digital currency “could dampen the domineering influence of the US dollar on global trade”, Carney said in a speech at the gathering of central bankers from around the world in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. “If the share of trade invoiced in [a digital currency] were to rise, shocks in the US would have less potent spillovers through exchange rates, and trade would become less synchronised across countries.
“The dollar’s influence on global financial conditions could similarly decline if a financial architecture developed around the new [digital currency] and it displaced the dollar’s dominance in credit markets. By reducing the influence of the US on the global financial cycle, this would help reduce the volatility of capital flows to emerging market economies.”
The Chinese currency, the renminbi, has been cited as an alternative to the dollar along with proposed digital currencies such as Facebook’s Libra. Carney said neither was in a position to take over from the dollar, but new technologies could allow for a global digital currency to challenge the US currency.
Digital currencies have attracted the attention of central banks in the past year as the prospect of mobile business and consumer transactions has become more popular.
Earlier this year the Bank of England welcomed Facebook’s Libra initiative, which was seen as a challenge to Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Bank officials said the initiative, which was backed by several banks, could be a useful addition to trading goods and services.
A succession of central banks have criticised Libra, however, saying it lacks the rules and regulations to be a reliable currency. The European commission opened an anti-trust investigation into Libra earlier this week, saying it feared the private digital currency could could unfairly disadvantage rivals and be open to abuse.
In what appeared to be a warmer response to Libra, Carney said: “Retail transactions are taking place increasingly online rather than on the high street, and through electronic payments over cash.
“The most high-profile of these has been Libra, a new payments infrastructure based on an international stablecoin fully backed by reserve assets in a basket of currencies including the US dollar, the euro and sterling. It could be exchanged between users on messaging platforms and with participating retailers.
“There are a host of fundamental issues that Libra must address, ranging from privacy to operational resilience. In addition, depending on its design, it could have substantial implications for both monetary and financial stability.”
Carney said the UK economy was suffering from several years of under-investment, mostly in response to the uncertainty surrounding Brexit. A further deterioration in GDP growth could force the Bank’s monetary policy committee to cut interest rates, he said. Carney would be minded to cut in the event of a downturn brought on by a no-deal departure from the EU.
