Martin Farrer 

RBA interest rate decision: Reserve Bank cuts rate to record low of 0.75% – as it happened

RBA reduces cash rate costs by another 0.25% despite rising house prices. This blog is now closed
  
  

The Reserve Bank of Australia board has cut the cash rate to 0.75%
The Reserve Bank of Australia board has cut the cash rate to 0.75%. Photograph: RBA

Summary

Thanks for joining us, we are going to leave our live coverage here. Just to recap the main points:

  • The Reserve Bank has made its third reduction in the cash rate in five months. It takes the benchmark borrowing rate in Australia to yet another record low of 0.75%.
  • Governor Philip Lowe said the economy was at a turning point but the prospect of slower jobs growth and low inflation convinced him of the need to act;
  • The Aussie dollar dipped 0.4% to US67.22c;
  • Some economists were predicting further rate cuts this year;
  • Comparison website Mozo said it will put more pressure on the big banks to pass on the cut to mortgage holders;
  • Labor’s Jim Chalmers has criticised the Coalition’s economic management, as did the Greens
  • The government has tried to put a positive spin on the rate cut with Josh Frydenberg saying that the RBA has pointed to “a gentle turning point in the domestic economy” and also urged the banks to pass on the rate cut
  • There has been radio silence from the big four banks. Usually by about this time of the day after a rate cut, one of the big players would have broken ranks to announce their new rates. The banks are under enormous political pressure to pass on the full 25 basis points, but analysts have predicted Westpac, NAB and Australia’s biggest bank, the Commonwealth, will keep some of it for themselves.
  • The cut comes despite a 0.9% jump in house prices in September
  • The share market has enjoyed its best day in nearly a month with the S&P/ASX200 index up 54.5 points, or 0.81%, to 6,742.8 points

Updated

Share market closes higher, Aussie dollar sinks

A quick update on the Australian share market and the dollar via our friends at Australian Associated Press:

The Australian share market has enjoyed its best day in nearly a month following the Reserve Bank’s decision to cut the cash rate for a third time this year.

The S&P/ASX200 index on Tuesday finished up 54.5 points, or 0.81 per cent, to 6,742.8 points, while the broader All Ordinaries rose 52.4 points, or 0.77 per cent, to 6,853 points

CMC Markets chief market strategist Michael McCarthy said that Tuesday’s session had a lacklustre start but then buyers moved off the sidelines once the RBA cut rates mid-afternoon, sending the ASX up 50 points.

“A very strong performance, largely built around that rate cut,” he said.

Volumes were 10 per cent above average and the market finished at its highs of the day, indicating there could be more gains to come on Wednesday, Mr McCarthy said.

The ASX200 is only 2% off the record all-time highs it set in late July.

The Aussie dollar meanwhile dipped to a four-week low against its US counterpart, and was close to a 10-and-a-half year low.

It was buying 67.02 US cents, from 67.54 US cents on Monday.

Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry chief executive, James Pearson, has urged lenders to pass on the rate cut to “ensure the greatest benefit is gained” by households.

He said:

“Although we are still to see the full impact of the earlier reductions in the cash rate and personal tax cuts, we believe the timing is right to boost parts of the economy that continue to struggle.

“With slowing economic growth and lower consumer confidence, small businesses have been doing it tough over the past year. This has particularly affected discretionary spending in small retail businesses, including cafes and restaurants.”

“Weakness in the housing sector has also been a significant drag on the economy over the past year, which has flowed through to consumer confidence and household spending.”

“However, there are signs the housing sector has turned the corner recently, with a modest improvement in Sydney and Melbourne house prices. The lower interest rates will help the housing sector to rebuild momentum.”

Treasurer Josh Frydenberg has responded to the rate cut by accentuating the positive - that the RBA has pointed to “a gentle turning point in the domestic economy”.

He said the RBA had noticed the “positive benefits that have been gained by the economy from the interest rate cuts, from the tax cuts, from extra spending on infrastructure from the stabilisation of the housing market and for the uptick in mining investment”.

Frydenberg flew right past all the RBA comments on low wages growth, suggesting that the “significant challenges” the economy faces are “internationally with the global trade tensions between China and the US but they are also domestically, particularly with the punishing impact of the drought and floods”.

And of course no rate cut announcement would be complete without putting the hard word on lenders to pass it on:

It is the government’s expectation that the banks will pass on this 25 basis point rate cut in full. What this means for an Australian family with a mortgage of $400,000 is $720 less a year in interest payments. That’s a significant benefit to an Australian family. It is completely reckless for the Labor Party to be talking down the Australian economy.”

Asked why the government isn’t spending more money to stimulate the economy and how many rate cuts it will take before it will get involved, Frydenberg continued to point to existing policies including the 10-year $100bn infrastructure package.

He even claimed that “the Labor Party opposed our tax cuts which are now delivering billions of dollars into the pockets of hard-working Australians” despite Labor voting for the tax cuts in the parliament.

Asked if the government is concerned the cuts will lead to house price rises, Frydenberg responded:

We have welcomed the stabilisation in the housing market and this is important because it plays into confidence for households and household consumption is around 60% of GDP. We also know that for most Australians owning their own home is not only their dream, it is their biggest asset. They want to see its value appreciate over time, which has been the history in our country. In terms of the clearance rates, they have gone up and in terms of prices they are now starting to go up. So the interest rate cuts have contributed to a stabilisation in the housing market which we welcome.”

Summary

Whoah. The Reserve Bank’s race to the bottom continued today with its third reduction in the cash rate in five months. It takes the benchmark borrowing rate in Australia to yet another record low of 0.75%. it’s more good news for borrowers and house prices. But bad news for savers and – if you think that the sight of a central bank slashing rates to a record low is something to worry about – it’s also bad news for the economy because it surely means the RBA expects things to get worse..

Anyway, here are the main points:

  • The RBA has cut the cash rate by 0.25% to a record low of 0.75%. It’s the third cut this year ;
  • Governor Philip Lowe said the economy was at a turning point but the prospect of slower jobs growth and low inflation convinced him of the need to act;
  • The Aussie dollar dipped 0.4% to US67.22c;
  • Some economists were predicting further rate cuts this year;
  • Comparison website Mozo said it will put more pressure on the big banks to pass on the cut to mortgage holders;
  • Labor’s Jim Chalmers has criticised the Coalition’s economic management, as did the Greens
  • The cut comes despite a 0.9% jump in house prices in September

Labor attacks coalition record on economy

Labor’s shadow treasurer Jim Chalmers put the cut on the coalition government’s lack of action to stimulate the economy.

“If the Liberals were doing a good job managing the economy the RBA wouldn’t have needed to cut interest rates to another new record low today,” Chalmers tweeted.

BIS Oxford Economics are getting ahead of the curve, looking for the next big thing. They say we shouldn’t expect a rate RISE until 2021.

Chief economist Sarah Hunter says the board highlighted “downside risks to the global economic outlook, and the persistent headwinds facing the domestic economy”. It expected jobs growth to “slow significantly over the near term as the economy absorbs the residential construction downturn and sluggish retail environment”. The bank is also projecting inflation to remain around 2% through to 2021, “which suggests there will not be a rate rise until the end of 2021 at the earliest”.

Savers, read it and weep ...

Updated

More cuts to come, says Capital Economics

Capital Economics says the rate cut today was widely expected but says that the RBA’s prediction of a slowdown in jobs growth (the aforementioned construction slump is a key factor here) points to another cut “by the end of the year”.

The bank argued that forward-looking indicators of labour demand point to a slowdown in employment growth. Indeed, employment surveys suggest that jobs growth will slow from around 2.5% now to around 2.0% around the turn of the year. It’s possible that the recent surge in the participation rate fizzles out at the same time, but we consider it more likely that unemployment will climb a bit further. Our forecast is that the unemployment rate will reach a peak at 5.5% in the first half of that year. Meanwhile, we think that global growth won’t accelerate anytime soon. Business confidence will therefore remain muted and investment will probably keep falling. We reiterate our forecast that rates will fall to 0.5% before the end of the year.

Updated

The comparison site Mozo.com says the rate cut could start a mortgage rate war after the online lenders Athena and Homestar said they would pass on the 0.25% cut to their customers in full. Such a move would put pressure on the big four banks to cut rates and give some more relief to Australia’s debt burdened households.

Here’s Mozo director Kirsty Lamont:

Online lenders are reacting to today’s RBA cut with lightning speed. They’re turning the screws on the big banks knowing the banks are in an unwinnable position, with the unenviable choice of having to either pass through today’s cut in full to mortgage customers and take a hit to their net profit margins, or hold back part of the cut and risk losing even more borrowers to their cheaper rivals.

The Greens say that the RBA has been railroaded into cutting rates because the government has refused to do its bit for the economy by increasing spending. This lack of so-called fiscal stimulus – as opposed to monetary stimulus from the RBA – has irritated senator Peter Whish-Wilson:

Without government borrowing to fund an increase in infrastructure spending, record low interest rates are re-inflating the housing market and going towards other unproductive and speculative investments. This is diluting the effectiveness of monetary policy and is railroading the RBA towards QE. Instead of being concerned about this trend, the treasurer actually seems to be cheering it along. Just last week, Josh Frydenberg was spruiking the virtue of further increases in house prices, and encouraged banks to push the limits of responsible lending barely eight months since Commissioner Hayne handed down his report.”

Updated

Aussie dollar spikes – then dips back again

The dollar spiked to US67.57c on the news of the RBA cut but has fallen back again in the last few minutes to US67.29c as traders digest the statement from Philip Lowe.

In it he clearly lays out the prospect of more cuts – or even perhaps some less conventional policy such as money-printing or quantitative easing.

Here’s what the conclusion of the statement says (my emphasis in bold):

It is reasonable to expect that an extended period of low interest rates will be required in Australia to reach full employment and achieve the inflation target. The board will continue to monitor developments, including in the labour market, and is prepared to ease monetary policy further if needed to support sustainable growth in the economy, full employment and the achievement of the inflation target over time.

Updated

Here’s some reaction to the news:

Highlights of RBA statement

Philip Lowe says in his statement that:

  • the bank acted to boost jobs and incomes
  • lower rates overseas have played a factor and more monetary easing – ie more cuts – are still on the table
  • growth is weaker than expected but has reached a “gentle turning point”
  • household spending still weak and wage growth subdued
  • further signs of turnaround in housing market

Updated

This is governor Philip Lowe’s full statement after his board cut rates to yet another record low.

It’s the third cut this year and reflects the bank’s concern that growth is still too sluggish to reduce unemployment and boost inflation.

Updated

IT'S A CUT!!!!

The RBA has cut rates to 0.75%

Seconds to go ...

Low rates are bad news for banks, says UBS

Just a few minutes to go before we get the proverbial puff of white smoke from above Martin Place. But in the meantime some interesting commentary from the banking team at UBS.

They have taken a fairly bearish view of Australia’s big banks in the last couple of years and they are continuing their sceptical outlook. They say that although the housing credit downturn may be bottoming out, it’s still hard yards ahead for the banks because low interest rates = low profits.

The UBS team says that bank shares – the bedrock of all our super accounts – look too high:

While the pick-up in lending is positive, bank fundamentals are increasingly challenged with ultra-low interest rates... With ongoing revenue pressure, we expect further dividend cuts and banks to rebase target [return of equity] to more realistic levels for an ultra-low rate environment. Following the re-rating, banks look expensive on 15.6x and 1.7x book with a falling EPS profile over the medium term.

New Zealand dollar hits four-year low

Across the ditch, a plunge in business confidence is continuing to hurt the New Zealand dollar.

It has fallen below US62.49c, the lowest since September 2015. The RBNZ caught markets off guard in August when it cut rates by 0.5% to 1%.

There were also encouraging numbers today from the Australian Industry Group (AiGroup) manufacturing index, which rose from 53.1 points to 54.7 points in September.

However, another closely watched snapshot of the economy, the CBA/IHS Markit manufacturing purchasing managers’ index, fell from 50.9 points to 50.3 points. Any reading over 50 indicates expansion so the numbers tend to suggest the economy is travelling OK.

Not every Liberal in Canberra is hoping for a rate cut. My colleague Paul Karp has this:

Liberal MP Tim Wilson, the chair of the House of Representatives economics committee, has told Guardian Australia that he hopes the RBA leaves interest rates on hold to give savers a break.

My hope is that the RBA leaves interest rates alone. There’s not sufficient evidence that there’s pass through from the last two rate cuts to stimulate the economy but there is evidence it is fuelling house price rises and ultimately higher debt.


Wilson has challenged the RBA to justify the effectiveness of monetary policy prompting a lengthy response from the central bank arguing - yes - rate cuts still work.

The RBA said:

In aggregate, Australian households benefit from the effect of lower interest rates. While the income of households with deposits is lower than if rates had not been reduced, the household sector as a whole has around twice as much debt as deposits.

Housing approvals down again

The CoreLogic house price index was not the only piece of data released today.

On the other side of the ledger, the number of housing approvals fell again in August, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics this morning. Forecasters said the numbers showed that the construction downturn is not yet over.

Approvals were down 1.1% in August and private house approvals dropped by 2.4%. Approvals are now at their lowest level since January 2013 and 44% below their November 2017 peak. Approvals dipped in every state and territory, with ACT (27.7%), the Northern Territory (8.7%) and NSW (5.4%) the hardest hit, in trend terms.

Economists at JP Morgan said the figures would be a “meaningful drag” on economic growth going forward. The approvals are “terrible news for construction” and point to a cut by the RBA in half an hour ...

Updated

House prices up by 0.9% in September

So more on the mega data dump this morning.

The most eye-catching was the 0.9% rise in the average national house price for September, largely driven by a strong rebound in the Sydney and Melbourne markets. Values in the two biggest cities were up 1.7% over the month, according to the CoreLogic September home value index. Prices have been boosted by increased investor activity amid lower rates and an easing of lending requirements by the banks since the May election.

Australia’s two largest cities have recorded a rapid bounce-back in home values over the past two months, with Sydney up a cumulative 3.3% and Melbourne up 3.2% in August and September.

Brisbane and Canberra were the only other capital cities to record a rise in dwelling values over the month, rising 0.1% and 1.0% respectively. Values held in Adelaide but fell 0.4% in Hobart and continued their long run of losses in Perth (down 0.8%) and Darwin (down 0.2%). Combined regional dwelling prices increased by 0.1 per cent, compared to a 1.1 per cent rise for combined capital city prices.

The question will still be whether to take the plunge or not. You can read more on that here

The ASX200 has risen ahead of today’s rates decision. The benchmark index is up 17.30 points this lunchtime to 6,705.60, a rise of 0.26%.

The Aussie dollar is under more pressure though. It’s down 0.16% to US67.4c.

Good afternoon and welcome to the live blog on the Reserve Bank’s interest rate decision. The bank’s board members are tipped by a majority of economists to cut the cash rate by 25 basis points to 0.75% this afternoon.

The chief factors driving the move are continued sluggish economic growth and the need for the RBA to meet its inflation rate of between 2-3%.

Any cut will be welcomed in Canberra where Scott Morrison and Josh Frydenberg have gamed the economy by opting for tax cuts and budget surplus rather than the large increase in government spending that some say would be better for the country than another rate cut.

However, a rate cut may not be completely cut and dried, especially after the latest monthly house price figures from CoreLogic today showed their biggest rise for more than two years. The numbers suggest that the property downturn could be over and that further rate cuts – the cash rate is already at an all-time low – could inflate another housing bubble.

On the other side of the ledger, building approvals fell again in August, indicating that the construction downturn still has some way to run.

More on those figures later but on with the blog ...

 

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