Britain is on course to sacrifice as much as £130bn in lost GDP growth over the next 15 years if the Brexit deal goes ahead, according to government figures.

Estimates published by the government last year show an agreement similar to Boris Johnson’s settlement, which envisions striking a limited free trade deal with the EU, would strip 6.7% from the UK’s expected path of GDP growth between now and 2034.

The 6.7% of GDP cost of Johnson also adds up to making people on average £2,250 a year poorer by 2034.

MPs previously rejected Theresa May’s withdrawal agreement and political declaration, which the same analysis found would knock about 2.1% off the UK’s total national income over 15 years, compared with remaining in the EU.

The estimates were made by the Department for Exiting the European Union in November last year when it examined the potential impact of various proposals on the growth of GDP, which is currently about £2.1tn.

DExEU found leaving the EU without a deal would be the most expensive option and cost the UK 9.3% in lost income over the period to 2034. Modifications to May’s deal that imposed higher tariffs on goods would leave the UK 3.9% of GDP worse off.

The deal forged in Brussels on Thursday most closely resembles moving towards a free trade deal with the EU, which the DExEU analysis found would cost 6.7% of GDP.

Johnson has hinted he expects to press Brussels for a “Canada-minus” trade deal, which would be more limited in scope than Canada’s agreement with the EU. This would dent tax receipts and restrict the government’s ability to increase investment without a further rise in borrowing, according to the review.

However, a trade deal would follow a two-year transition period, allowing businesses to prepare the new trading regime, including tariffs and agreements on regulations.