Julia Kollewe 

Wall Street hits new record highs on trade deal hopes – as it happened

Pan-European share index hits four-year high; Goldman Sachs expects trade war drag on global economy to fade next year
  
  

An American flag flies with shipping containers stacked at the Port of Los Angeles, which is the nation’s busiest container port, on November 7, 2019 in San Pedro, California. Port officials said today October cargo volume was down 19% this year compared with October 2018 due to tariffs imposed in the US-China trade war.
An American flag flies with shipping containers stacked at the Port of Los Angeles, which is the nation’s busiest container port, on November 7, 2019 in San Pedro, California. Port officials said today October cargo volume was down 19% this year compared with October 2018 due to tariffs imposed in the US-China trade war. Photograph: Mario Tama/Getty Images

Closing summary

Over here, stock markets are also trading higher, although they are off their highs. Sentiment has been lifted by optimism that a US-China trade deal is still in the offing.

  • UK’s FTSE 100 index up 66 points at 7,374.21, a 0.92% gain
  • Germany’s Dax up 109 points at 13,316.66, up 0.83%
  • France’s CAC up 4.45 points at 5,934/24, up 0.08%
  • Italy’s FTSE MiB down 5.83 points at 23,459.03, down 0.01%

The pound is slightly lower against the dollar and the euro, at $1.2942 and €1.1677.

On Wall Street, the Dow Jones and Nasdaq opened at record highs – the Dow rose almost 44 points, or 0.16%, to 28,079.76 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq advanced 28.08 points, or 0.33%, to 8,578.02.

Thank you for all your great comments. Good-bye – we’ll be back tomorrow.

Updated

Wall Street hits new record highs

Ding Dong: The Dow Jones and Nasdaq have hit new record highs. The Dow opened almost 36 points, or 0.13% higher, at 28,072.10, while the Nasdaq advanced 27 points, or 0.32%, to 8,577.07.

The figures will help dispel any recession fears. The US housing market has perked up in recent months, after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates three times.

Fears that the US economy could slide into recession have receded in recent months as trade tensions with China have eased. There are hopes that a preliminary trade deal can be agreed soon between the world’s two biggest economies.

US housing permits hit 12-year high

The latest US housing data are out, and they are strong. Housebuilding rebounded in October and the number of permits for future home construction jumped 5% to 1.46m, the highest level since May 2007.

The number of homes on which construction started rose 3.8% to 1.31m last month, according to the US Commerce Department.

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Unions to fight Tata Steel's 3,000 job cuts

Indian-owned Tata Steel, the owner of the Port Talbot steelworks, plans to cut 3,000 jobs across Europe – but unions in Britain and the Netherlands have vowed to fight the plans.

Tata announced the cuts late last night as the steel industry struggles with weak demand and high costs. In June, competition authorities blocked a joint venture with Germany’s Thyssenkrupp.

Unions in Britain and the Netherlands said they had been given a jobs guarantee until 2021 following the collapse of that deal. Frits van Wieringen, President of Tata Steel’s European works council, said it would take time to work out detail, but warned of “a very serious confrontation in the Netherlands”.

There is no justification whatsoever to cut over 1,500 jobs here, and it will be impossible to find any kind of compromise over that.

Roy Rickhuss, general secretary of the British steelworkers union Community, said British workers would also be “robustly defending” the 2021 jobs agreement.

Rebecca Long Bailey, Labour’s shadow business secretary, also weighed in, saying:

This is terrible news for Tata Steel workers, made all the worse coming just before Christmas.

This Conservative government has failed to support our manufacturing industry and people are paying for that failure with their livelihoods. It speaks volumes that the business secretary Andrea Leadsom cancelled a meeting with the steel industry only last month. They just don’t care.

Labour will bring the real change our country needs through investment and confidence in our domestic industry.

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Corporate news round-up

Here is a quick round-up of today’s corporate news. An independent report by a law firm into TSB’s IT meltdown in 2018 has found the bank’s board lacked “common sense” and shifted customers to a new IT platform before it had been fully tested.

EasyJet has outlined its ambition to become the world’s first major airline to operate net-zero carbon flights across its entire network, announcing it would offset all emissions.

The UK government is set to wave through the £4bn takeover of the British defence company Cobham by Advent after the US private equity group made legally binding promises to address national security concerns.

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Here is some reaction to the CBI industrial trends survey, which showed some signs of improvement in manufacturers’ order books in recent weeks, as the risk of a no-deal Brexit faded. Howard Archer, chief economic adviser to the EY Item Club forecasting group, says:

The report does little to inspire confidence that better times lie just around the corner for manufacturing sector. The November CBI survey still largely indicates a manufacturing sector struggling in the face of soft domestic and foreign demand, and hampered by Brexit, domestic political and global economic uncertainties.

The survey indicates that the manufacturing sector could well be a drag on UK GDP in the fourth quarter ... This reinforces our suspicion that GDP growth is likely to be limited to just 0.2% quarter-on-quarter in the fourth quarter.

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Aston Martin is gearing up for the launch of its first-ever sports utility vehicle, the DBX, in Beijing tomorrow. It will be manufactured at the British luxury carmaker’s new factory in St Athan in Wales, where more than 300 people are working.

The carmaker said the car had met with a positive reception from customers so far, and it will start delivering it to clients from the second quarter of next year. The DBX costs £158,000, sitting between the Bentley Bentayga and Lamborghini Urus.

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Lloyd's of London launches #SpeakUp campaign

Lloyd’s of London, the world’s oldest and biggest insurance market, has launched a #SpeakUp campaign to encourage more people to speak up against unacceptable behaviour.

The organisation, which dates back to 1686, was forced to act after Bloomberg reported evidence from 18 women of widespread sexual harassment ranging from inappropriate remarks to physical assault.

Lloyd’s immediately responded by setting up a bullying and harassment helpline in April, and commissioned a survey to gauge the scale of the problems. That survey found nearly 500 people working in the insurance market had either suffered or observed sexual harassment in the past 12 months – findings that the Lloyd’s boss John Neal described as “truly terrible”.

The survey also found that 38% of respondents did not know who to raise concerns to in the Lloyd’s market and only 45% of people felt comfortable enough to raise a concern.

Seeking to address this, the new campaign aims to give clear guidance on what individuals should do if they see or experience unacceptable behaviour. Advertisements, banners and vinyl posters will feature prominently within the Lloyd’s building in London as part of the campaign, together with easily accessible guides and online information (Lloyds.com/speakup).

Neal said:

At Lloyd’s we expect all market participants to act with integrity, be respectful and always speak up. I hope this campaign encourages more people to do so. You will be heard, you will be supported, and we will act, because no matter what form it takes, harassment is never acceptable.

The ambition here is to make a positive difference in many people’s lives, by empowering individuals to act and intervene when they witness unacceptable behaviour. I think everyone has a role to play. Lloyd’s leadership is fully committed to transforming the culture at Lloyd’s with shared values that will shape the behaviours, choices and actions of everyone in the marketplace.

Lloyd’s has also banned daytime drinking at its in-house bar, One Under Lime. Around 45,000 people work in the market – thousands of brokers and underwriters who are employed by 100 insurers and 300 broking firms, as well as 1,000 staff directly employed by Lloyd’s.

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The latest fall in output volumes was mainly driven by motor vehicles and metal products, while mechanical engineering, plastic products and aerospace have fared better and made positive contributions to output. Looking ahead, firms overall anticipate production to be flat in the next three months.

The CBI said growth across the UK economy has been volatile this year as businesses were forced to shift activity in response to moving Brexit deadlines (the first deadline of 29 March was extended to 31 October, which in turn has been extended until 31 January).

We expect the economy to grow modestly in the event of a smooth transition to a new Brexit deal, with the longer-term economic impact dependent upon the details within the final deal.

The survey of 307 manufacturers also found that export orders continued to fall, with the monthly balance at -22%, an improvement from the -41% registered in October.

A gauge of factory output over the past three months was -9%, similar to October’s -10%.

Anna Leach, the CBI’s deputy chief economist, said:

While the thick fog of uncertainty from a No Deal Brexit has lifted somewhat, the manufacturing sector remains under pressure from weak global trade and a subdued domestic economy.

Order books remain below average, and output volumes continue to fall. When taking into account the deteriorating outlook for manufacturing globally, it’s clear that the outlook for the sector remains precarious.

The general election is an opportunity for all parties to explain how they will shore up our economy. Ratifying a Brexit deal and moving on to build a vibrant future relationship with our biggest trading partner, based on frictionless trade, will be vital – both for UK manufacturers, and business as a whole.

CBI: Pickup in factory orders but still weak

The CBI industrial trends survey is out. It suggests British manufacturers enjoyed a pick-up in orders in November, after hitting a nine-year low the month before, as the risk of a no-deal Brexit receded.

The survey showed 13% of manufacturers reported total order books to be above normal while 40% said they were below normal this month, resulting in a net balance of -26%, up from -37% in October. It remains below the long-run average of -13%.

Updated

Goldman Sachs: Trade war drag on global economy to fade in 2020

Goldman Sachs is predicting that the drag on the global economy from the trade war between the US and China – the world’s two biggest economies – will gradually fade next year.

Jan Hatzius and other economists at the US investment bank wrote in a note yesterday that the progress towards a partial trade deal and expectations of an extended truce should benefit the world economy – assuming there is no further escalation of tariffs. The US is due to impose more tariffs on Chinese goods on 15 December, if an agreement is not struck by then.

The 18-month trade war is currently shaving 0.5 percentage points from the growth rates in both the US and China, the Goldman Sachs economists estimate.

Traders are buying back into the market despite a lack of progress in the US-China trade talks – but people are clearly hoping for a deal sometime soon.

Comments from China’s central bank governor Yi Gang are also providing a fillip to stock markets. He has just promised to step up credit support to the economy and push real lending rates lower. This comes after the People’s Bank of China cut its short-term funding rate for the first time since 2015 yesterday to prop up the economy.

Still a bull market?

Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at online trading platform IG, has sent us his thoughts on the “bull market” and tonight’s TV clash.

European markets are rallying and US futures are already pointing to solid gains, as risk appetite comes storming back following a mixed session yesterday. It is almost as if this is still a bull market.

Disturbances in Hong Kong have failed to dent the bullish view, and with trade wars still mercifully quiet the indices appear to have taken the bit between their teeth – European indices are surging in impressive fashion, and even the FTSE 100 is powering higher.

Today sees the first clash on TV between Jeremy Corbyn and Boris Johnson, a discussion likely to generate more heat than light. Both leaders know their polling has picked up of late, and will want to continue that move, while the poor Lib Dems will have to wait for another way of boosting their flagging position. There is still plenty of time to go, but one imagines Conservative Central Office will be very pleased with the overall position so far.

The pound, meanwhile, is not doing very much after yesterday’s gains, boosted by the Conservative party’s lead in the polls. Against the dollar, sterling has slipped 0.02% to $1.2952 this morning. Tonight we will get the first TV debate between Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn (8pm GMT on ITV).

Updated

The rally on stock markets is gathering pace. The FTSE 100 in London is now 1.08% higher, at 7,386.73, a gain of almost 80 points.

The Dax in Frankfurt has gained 1.23% to 13,368.34. The CAC 40 in Paris is up 0.55% and the FTSE MiB in Milan is 0.78% ahead.

Pierre Veyret, technical analyst at trading platform ActivTrades has looked at the rally in European shares.

European markets are trading significantly higher, led by miners and the travel and leisure sector, despite a mixed trading session in Asia. Global sentiment remains bullish on stocks as investors look for further positive signs from the trade talks. Investors have already priced a trade deal in with many benchmarks around the world now hitting record prices and P/E ratio levels.

This could be a dangerous situation for bull traders if negotiations between Beijing and Washington slow down as many traders have already bought the rumour. Today, investors’ focus will be drawn to both US building permits data as well as the first televised leadership debate in the UK, prior to December’s general election.

Russ Mould, investment director at the UK stockbroker AJ Bell, says the move shows the aviation sector is under real pressure to address its environmental impact.

Regular fliers often fret about their carbon footprint so EasyJet’s move, at a significant but not unmanageable cost of £25m a year, could pay off. Well, at least if it is seen as a genuine strategy and not just window dressing.

The news comes hot on the heels of Wizz Air CEO Jozsef Varadi’s call for a ban on business class – the Hungarian-based outfit styles itself as Europe’s greenest airline.

Clearly the industry sees itself coming under more pressure in the future and is trying to get one step ahead as climate change becomes an increasingly important issue for politicians, regulators and the public.

EasyJet’s move is laudable, but there are some doubts over its £25m cost estimate.

Back to easyJet’s pledge to become “the world’s first major net zero carbon airline”.

Amazingly, it will only cost £25m to offset carbon emissions from the fuel used for all flights in the year to 30 September 2020. So why are not more airlines doing this?

EasyJet says in today’s results statement:

Carbon offsetting is an interim measure and we will continue the push to reinvent aviation for the long-term, including development of sustainable fuel and electric flying.

Pan-European share index highest since 2015

Global shares are pushing higher again as traders bet on a trade deal between the US and China. The clock is ticking, though – a preliminary deal needs to be agreed before 15 December, when Washington is due to impose a new round of tariffs on Chinese goods.

The MSCI world equity index, which tracks shares in 47 countries, edged up 0.1% to its highest level since January last year.

The broad Euro Stoxx 600 index advanced 0.4% to hit its highest level since July 2015. Germany’s Dax is now 0.59% ahead while the FTSE 100 index in London has advanced 0.71%. Wall Street futures are pointing to a higher open on the other side of the Atlantic, rising 0.2%.

EasyJet shares have also gained 4%, to £13.26, despite a 26% drop in pretax profits to £427m for the year to 30 September.

The budget airline carried record passenger numbers but blamed weaker confidence due to Brexit uncertainty for a 1.8% fall in revenue per seat.

EasyJet is relaunching its package holiday business to boost customer numbers following the collapse of its rival Thomas Cook. EasyJet Holidays will offer beach and city holidays through the airline’s network.

Chief executive Johan Lundgren said:

I am really thrilled that with the launch before Christmas of our brand new EasyJet Holidays business, we are bringing flexibility and excellent value to the holiday market. We believe there is a gap in the market for a modern, relevant and flexible business for today’s consumer.

The company also unveiled plans to become the “first major airline to operate net-zero carbon flights”.

Updated

Cobham shares rose more than 4% on the news, and are now trading 3.9% higher at 160.8p.

The FTSE 100 index has pushed almost 40 points higher to 7,346.31, a gain of 0.53%. European stock markets are also rising.

  • Germany’s Dax up 0.37% at 13,255.47
  • France’s CAC up 0.14% at 5,939.92
  • Italy’s FTSE MiB up 0.38% at 23,552.01

There is news on the planned £4bn takeover of the UK defence firm Cobham by the US private equity group Advent. The UK government now suggests that it is minded to allow the deal, after Advent made several legally binding undertakings such as placing a number of British executives on the defence company’s different boards.

Andrea Leadsom, the business minister, put the deal on hold in mid-September and ordered an investigation into whether the sale poses a national security threat. Cobham, based in Dorset, is a world leader producing systems for planes to refuel in mid-air.

Shareholders had approved the sale of Cobham, established 85 years ago by the aviation pioneer Sir Alan Cobham, against the wishes of the founding family, which owns 1.5% of the company.

Boston-based Advent has pledged to give prior notice to the Ministry of December if it plans to sell all or parts of Cobham, and to honour existing contracts with the government.

Leadsom said she would hold a consultation on the proposals until 17 December.

Updated

European stock markets are up –

  • UK’s FTSE 100 index up 19 points at 7,326.73, a 0.26% gain
  • Germany’s Dax up 0.3%
  • France’s CAC up 0.2%
  • Spain’s Ibex up 0.4%
  • Italy’s FTSE MiB up 0.2%

Introduction: Waiting game for trade deal continues

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.

The waiting game continues for the US-China trade deal. Chinese state media described the latest discussions, held by phone over the weekend, as “constructive,” but a report from CNBC suggested yesterday that the mood in Beijing was pessimistic. Doubts have crept in over whether a preliminary deal can be struck, and when.

Vishnu Varathan, head of economics and strategy at Mizuho Bank’ Asia Treasury Department in Singapore, told Reuters:

There are some lingering doubts over whether a phase one deal can be struck. The suspicion is that there’s a lot more wrinkles to iron out than initially thought.

In a positive sign, the Trump administration issued a new 90-day extension allowing US companies to continue to do business with China’s Huawei Technologies while US regulators work on rules on telecommunications firms that pose a risk to national security.

The trade war between the world’s two biggest economies has dragged on well for over a year. David Madden, market analyst at CMC Markets UK, says:

In the middle of next month, the Trump administration will introduce fresh tariffs on roughly $156bn worth of Chinese imports, unless something changes. Some traders are hoping phase one of the overall trade deal will be agreed upon by then so there will be no need to press ahead with new tariffs.

Mr Trump would like more concessions from China in relation to intellectual property rights, but for now he doesn’t want to reverse tariffs, but China are open to the idea of rolling back on the levies. The toing and froing of the trade spat will probably continue up until when the next round of US levies are set to kick in, and then we could see some constructive talks.

Asian stock markets are mixed – the Shanghai composite index gained 0.78%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 1.29% and the Australian market advanced 0.7%. Sentiment was lifted by hopes that Beijing will provide more stimulus after yesterday’s rate cut from the People’s Bank of China.

However, other markets are down – Japan’s Nikkei fell 0.53%, as exporters came under pressure from a firmer yen against the dollar, while the South Korean Kospi slipped 0.34%.

The pound has performed well as the Conservative Party is leading in the polls, and after Boris Johnson declared that all Tory candidates standing in next month’s election had promised to back the deal he brokered with the EU.

The pound is inching higher this morning, trading below $1.30 at $1.2959, following the prime minister’s speech at the CBI’s annual conference yesterday. He will square up to the Labour leader, Jeremy Corbyn, in the first televised election debate tonight at 8pm on ITV.

European stocks are expected to open slightly higher, close to the record highs struck recently.

Agenda

  • 11am GMT: CBI industrial trends (November)
  • Shadow chancellor John McDonnell speech on the economy in London
  • 1.30pm GMT: US Housing starts (October)

Updated

 

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