Hundreds of thousands of investors locked in Woodford equity income fund could lose a third of their remaining investments by the time it is wound up, according to analysis commissioned by its administrators.

It would mean investors could collectively lose another £1bn, after administrators decided to fire fund manager Neil Woodford and close the fund, which was last valued at £3.1bn.

Calculations by the investment banking firm PJT Park Hill estimated that investors would lose nearly 33% of their remaining cash if the firm was wound up, and nearly 43% in a worst-case scenario.

The analysis, first reported by CityWire, was commissioned by the equity income fund’s administrator, Link Fund Solutions, and was published before the surprise closure last month.

Estimates by Woodford’s team in October claimed investors would lose only about 9% of their remaining investments, if the firm was allowed to continue repositioning the portfolio in preparation for a reopening of the fund in December.

However, that figure did not account for a wave of withdrawals by investors who were likely to flee the moment it the fund was reopened.

Having secured support from a number of financial advisers who were expected to keep their clients in the fund, Woodford expected he would be able to carry on, with investments worth about £750m.

More than 300,000 investors have been blocked from accessing their cash since June, when the fund was originally suspended. Woodford was forced to gate the fund after a string of bad investment bets that prompted a surge in redemptions that he could not fulfil.

The suspension was expected to last until December. Link’s decision to close the fund came as a shock to some investors.

The amount that can be returned will depend on how much fund manager BlackRock and PJT Park Hill, which have been appointed to wind up the fund, can raise from selling the remaining assets, minus the fees charged for their work. Those fees have not been disclosed.

A spokesperson for Link Fund Solutions said: “Every decision LFS has taken, at every point in this process, has been to ensure the best interests of investors are served equally.

“Following the suspension, insufficient progress on the repositioning of the fund meant there was not reasonable certainty when this repositioning would be fully achieved and LFS therefore concluded that it is in the best interests of all investors for the Fund to be wound up on the basis of an ‘orderly realisation’ of the fund’s assets.

“This involves the sale of the fund’s assets over a reasonable period of time – the aim is to avoid a fire sale, balancing the need to generate liquidity and the need to secure a reasonable value for the assets.”

PJT Park Hill and Woodford declined to comment.