German inflation has picked up, but remains low in historical terms.

Consumer prices rose by 1.2% year-on-year this month, on a harmonised basis, new figures show. That’s up from 0.9% in October.

On a non-harmonised basis, inflation was even lower:

UK bank TSB has just announced which 82 branches will close, as part of a cost-cutting plan.

They’re located across the country, with two branches going in Edinburgh, two in Birmingham, and a dozen in London - plus other towns and cities.

Here’s the list.

Despite its recent recovery, the pound is still around 10% below its value in June 2016, before the EU referendum.

Ian Strafford-Taylor, CEO of international money specialist, Equals, says this has a significant impact at the foreign exchange desk:

“Despite the TV debates and mud slinging between parties, the pound is actually in a much stronger position against the euro than it was at the start of the year – currently 7% higher with a rate of 1.174. It’s not quite at the height of the one-year peak we saw in May this year (1.175) but it’s not far off and is standing at a six-month high.”

“A lot can happen in the two weeks we still have until the election so we shouldn’t expect to see the pound stay at these rates. The build-up to past elections have seen the pound go on a rollercoaster journey and a new Prime Minister typically brings about a significant change in the strength of the pound, so we should brace ourselves for more turbulence.”

“As it stands, the pound is still 10% lower against the euro since the day of the Brexit referendum in June 2016. This means Brits heading to Eurozone countries will now get €127 less for every £1,000 exchanged than they would have just over three years ago.

With December looming, many investors big and small will be wondering where to put their money in 2020.

A lot depends on the general election, of course. But Dean Turner, Economist at UBS Global Wealth Management, reckons UK stocks might be underwhelming whatever happens on 12 December.

“Despite a relatively good year for equity returns in 2019, 2020 looks set to be a flat year for UK earnings.

“Investors who’ve pinned their hopes on the 12 December poll offering a clear direction of travel will likely be disappointed. In the event of a Conservative majority, Brexit may be ‘completed’, however gains will be capped as the next phase of negotiations ensues. Should the election result in a hung parliament, we expect a further extension to Article 50.”

City economists have been busy digesting YouGov’s poll, which predicts a 68-seat majority for Boris Johnson.

Adam Cole of Royal Bank of Canada reports the chances of a Conservative majority government have now hit 70% on Betfair - its joint-highest level of the campaign.

The probability of a Conservative government of any kind is also close to the high (78%), while the probability of a Labour majority remains negligible (3%), he adds.

But, Cole also recommends caution - it would be a mistake to over-interpret YouGov’s findings.

On YouGov’s model, the predicted Conservative majority disappears if the Conservative lead over Labour falls to around 7% points from the 11% they have in their results (similar to other polls). This is very similar to the threshold on a simple uniform national swing.

So, with Labour’s vote share trending higher, a hung parliament is still a possibility.

For that reason, the pound may be under pressure before election day.....

Cole explains:

For the markets’ confidence in the election outcome to be maintained, the red dotted line in the second chart needs to start diverging from the path it followed in 2017. Otherwise, GBP’s latest gains look fragile.

Here’s our news story on the pick-up in UK house prices:

Speaking of the election.... analysts at the Institute of Fiscal Studies have just warned that neither the Conservatives or Labour have a ‘credible plan’ for the public finances.

My colleague Julia Kollewe explains:

Paul Johnson, the director of the respected thinktank, noted that the Conservatives’ election manifesto in 2017 pledged more austerity and spending cuts, but in reality public service spending has gone up, and is due to be around £27bn higher next year than implied by the manifesto. In fact, he said, it is closer to the 2017 Labour pledge than the Tories’ own manifesto.

This time, the Conservatives are not promising any more spending cuts but are not predicting any spending increases beyond those set out in September either. Their plans would leave public service spending excluding health still 14% lower in 2023-24 than it was in 2010-11. “No more austerity perhaps, but an awful lot of it baked in,” Johnson said.

The Conservatives have pencilled in few tax changes beyond a small cut in national insurance contributions.

“If you think things are pretty much OK as they are, then you will like the Conservatives proposals for tax and spend. If you want big increases in taxation and spending then Labour and the Liberal Democrats have plenty to offer,” Johnson said.

Howard Archer of EY Item Club predicts that house prices will keep rising by around 1% in the near term.

There are factors pushing prices up, he points out. Consumers have more purchasing power, thanks to wage growth, and interest rates are near record lows. There’s also a shortage of houses on the market, thanks to Britain’s failure to build enough new homes.

But, the labour market has recently faltered, Archer adds, with wage growth slowing and employment dropping by 58,000 in the last quarter.

Iain McKenzie, CEO, The Guild of Property Professionals, reckons the housing market will remain subdued until there’s more clarity on Brexit.

Once we know what to expect, the market can settle into a new normal and activity will start to improve as buyers and sellers get on with it.

At the moment there is a lack of stock coming onto the market as sellers hold back and remain on the side-lines. I think this will change once we put Brexit behind us, and we can move forward as a country. For now, the positives are that money continues to be cheap to borrow and property prices are more realistic.”

Moving forwards as a country could take some time, though. Even if Britain does leave the EU at the end of January, a new cliff-edge would loom in December 2020 to get a free trade deal agreed.

2019 has been an “annus horribilis”* for the housing market, says Guy Harrington, CEO of property lender Glenhawk, adding:

October’s marginally higher growth may reflect the market’s quietly increasing confidence that the general election result may not be the disaster it feared, but overall it’s a case of ‘bring on the new decade’.

Worryingly for UK vendors, with neither the Tory or Labour manifesto offering much cause for optimism, it may take more than a general election and Brexit resolution to rouse the market from its deep slumber.”

* -this Latin phrase was popularised in 1992 by the Queen, who might be tempted to use it again this year....

London’s housing market has been in a real rut since the Brexit vote, with price falling for months.

But is the worst over? Patrick Alvarado, director of central London estate agent Nicolas Van Patrick, reports the market is now “picking up”.

Alvarado says:

Over the past three months, we have sold most of our properties, many of which had been sitting on our books for more than a year, so there is reason to be quietly optimistic.

Agents tend to be bellwethers for future movements in the market and there is no doubt that we are seeing more buyers get on with it and step into the market, which bodes well for the future.’

Despite this month’s rise in prices, UK house price inflation is still sharply lower than before the EU referendum.

Back in 2016, house prices were rising at around 5% per year, not the sub-1% growth seen in 2019.

Basic pay growth hit 4% this year, meaning the price/earnings ratio has dipped. But it’s still sharply over its long-term average (making it much harder for young adults to get onto the housing ladder, compared with earlier generations)