Graeme Wearden 

UK inflation at three-year low; Brexit worries weigh – as it happened

Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news
  
  

Rising chocolate prices pushed up food price inflation last month
Rising chocolate prices pushed up food price inflation last month Photograph: PR Image

Closing summary

The UK stock market has closed for the night, with the FTSE 100 up 15 points.

With the pound still suffering from Brexit angst, international companies led the risers. Pharmaceutical firm Hikma gained 4%, with global equipment rental firm Ashtead 3% higher.

But UK builders had a bad day, with Berkeley and Persimmon down 2% each.

From shipping to craning.... and the world’s biggest crane has been in action today, helping to construct the Hinkley Point C nuclear power station.

Big Carl, which stands 250 metres high, successfully moved a 170 tonne (!) piece of the Hinkley reactor’s “steel containment liner” at 4.30am this morning.

Here are some impressive photos, which have quite a sci-fi feel....

The Baltic Dry index is one of those esoteric financial benchmarks that may actually give a handy insight into the real economy.

It measures the cost of shipping goods around the world, and thus can gauge how much demand there is for supertankers and smaller ships.

So it’s worth noting that the Index has dropped close to a six-month low today, with weaker demand for a range of vessel sizes. It’s the 11th daily drop in a row.

Wall Street has opened cautiously, as traders await the historic vote on whether to impeach Donald Trump (liveblog here).

Shares are a little higher, with the Dow Jones industrial average gaining 39 points or 0.14% to 28,306 - back towards yesterday’s intraday high.

The tech-focused Nasdaq has hit a record high, up 17 points or 0.2% at 8,840.

A lot of people have been citing December 2020 as the big Brexit deadline. But actually, June could be the real cliff edge date.

That the last date for the UK to request an extension, EU insiders insist. The withdrawal agreement stipulates that the transition can be extended by “one or two years”, but that would probably involve the UK committing more money for the EU budget.

My colleague Jennifer Rankin reports that Brussels believes Johnson is serious about not seeking such an extension:

But.. this cliff-edge wouldn’t be as serious as crashing out of the EU without a withdrawal agreement:

Pound weakens as JP Morgan sees no-deal risks

Back in the markets, sterling is weakening further as traders keep fretting about Brexit.

The pound has lost more than half a cent against the US dollar today, to $1.3060 - or more than four cents below its post-election spike.

JP Morgan has warned there’s a 25% risk that the UK and EU fail to agree a trade deal by the end of 2020. This is “uncomfortably high”, it says.

But the bank also believes there’s a 50% chance that a deal is reached, and only a 20% possibility of the transition period being extended.

David Lidington, who was effectively deputy prime minister under Theresa May, has predicted that a ‘core’ trade deal will be agreed by the end of December 2020.

Speaking of the Bank of England... the central bank has outlined new climate emergency stress tests.

They will examine whether UK banks and insurance companies are prepared for the impact of climate change. It will consider a range of scenarios, including temperature rises of up to 4 degrees celsius (double the Paris climate agreement). More here:

Professor Costas Milas of Liverpool University argues that UK interest rates are likely to be cut next year - whether Brexit goes smoothly or not.

He writes:

Under the current interest rate of 0.75%, the Bank expects inflation to be 1.42% in late 2020. Under one interest rate cut, inflation will be 1.51% by the end of 2020. All this, based on the assumption that the sterling effective rate settles at the 79 level in 2020.

Notice that sterling went up to 82 in the aftermath of the election result. Assuming that Brexit-related negotiations run reasonably smoothly in 2020, sterling will rise further therefore pushing inflation further below the Bank’s forecast and the 2% target. In this case, the Bank will surely react by cutting the policy rate.

But what if the trade deal negotiations hit hurdles?

Even if Brexit negotiations involve a lot of ups and downs, the BoE will most likely be forced to cut the policy rate. In this case, uncertainty will spiral out of control. Indeed, we got a taste of this following Boris Johnson’s move to legislate against extending the end of 2020 deadline which is, of course, a huge gamble.

So whatever Brexit scenario one is willing to contemplate, an interest rate cut looks as the most likely outcome..

As a knowledgable and well-read lot, I’m sure you’ll have NO TROUBLE at all tackling our Christmas quiz.

It’s just been published, covering some of the biggest business news stories of the year:

Northerners hit most by inflation

Inflation is rising particularly briskly in the North of England, according to think tank NIESR.

NIESR (the National Institute of Economic and Social Research) has calculated that ‘underlying inflation’ rose by 1% across the UK (this measure excludes ‘extreme price movements’).

But while this underlying inflation rose by 1.5% in the North, it only picked up by 0.7% in the South East, and by 0.9% in Scotland. That’s based on 130,088 “locally collected” prices.

NIESR economist Janine Boshoff said:

“Headline CPI inflation remained unchanged at 1.5 per cent in the year to November 2019.

Our analysis of approximately 130,000 goods and services included in the basket, indicates that higher inflation related to food and non-alcoholic beverages and recreation and culture was offset by lower inflation in alcoholic beverages and tobacco, clothing and footwear, and restaurants and hotels.

Our measure of underlying inflation, which excludes extreme price movements, increased by 0.1 percentage point to 1.0 per cent in November. Underlying inflation increased in most regions of the UK

Chocolate, yoghurt and pasta become rather pricier

A quick dig into November’s inflation report shows that the price of some types of food have risen sharply.

Chocolate, for example, is 4.3% more expensive than a year ago.

Ice-creams and ‘edible ices’ cost a chunky 6.1% more (which is intriguing, as November isn’t really peak season).

Yoghurt is up 12.5%, margarine by 15.9%, while pasta and couscous is 17.7% more expensive than November 2018.

In the drinks section, cocoa and powdered chocolate was 7.7% more expensive than a year ago, while fruit and vegetable juices were 8.9% pricier.

Here’s a sector-by-sector breakdown of the November inflation report:

  • OVERALL CONSUMER PRICES: 1.5% over the last year
  • Food and non-alcoholic beverages: 2.1%
  • Alcoholic beverages and tobacco: 1.9%
  • Clothing and footwear: unchanged
  • Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels: 1.2%
  • Furniture, household equipment and maintenance: 1.2%
  • Health: 2.9%
  • Transport: 0.8%
  • Communication: 3.3%
  • Recreation and culture: 1.5%
  • Education: 2.7%
  • Restaurants and hotels: 2.4%
  • Miscellaneous goods and services: 1.9%

Updated

Experts: Weak inflation means no interest rate rises soon

Economists agree that Britain’s low inflation means there’s no chance that the Bank of England will raise interest rates soon.

The BoE sets rates tomorrow, at its last meeting of 2019, but Jing Teow, economist at PwC, doesn’t expect fireworks:

“The below-target level of inflation means that the Bank of England will be under little pressure to raise its policy rates soon.

However, a recovery next year that follows a further easing of political and economic uncertainties could spur further economic activity and spending, giving rise to inflationary pressures in the medium term. “

Yael Selfin, chief economist at KPMG UK, predicts that inflation will stay low next year - potentially allowing the BoE to cut borrowing costs.

Inflation is expected to remain well below the Bank of England’s target in 2020, thanks to price caps set on regulated utilities and a stronger pound, giving the Bank of England some room to act if the economy wobbles a little next year.

“The Bank may wish to secure a pre-emptive cut in rates, either in February or May, if recent economic weakness proves more persistent.

Chancellor Sajid Javid has welcomed today’s inflation figures, saying it will help families handle the cost of Christmas.

However, prices are still rising -- so households will suffer if their income hasn’t kept pace with inflation.

Wages are still rising faster than inflation in the UK, but the gap has narrowed.

Yesterday we learned that total pay growth (including bonuses) slowed to 3.2%, from 3.6%, with basic pay growth dipping from 3.6% to 3.5%.

Chocolate prices are a classic example of ‘shrinkflation’, especially at Christmas time.

Last week, ITV News showed how some favourite festive confectionary tins, such as Roses and Quality Street, have shrunk by 40% in the last decade. That has allowed them to keep the sticker price low - but obviously consumers are getting less for their money.

The Office for National Statistics tries to keep a close eye on this. Earlier this year, it reported that 206 products shrank in size in 2018, while 79 got bigger.

So if a chocolate tub gets significantly smaller, but its price doesn’t, that pushes inflation up.

UK house price growth weakest since 2012

UK house price growth has hit its lowest level in seven years, as prices continue to fall in London.

Across the country, the average house price increased by 0.7% in the 12 months to October to £233,000. That’s the lowest growth since September 2012.

Prices rose strongly in Yorkshire and the Humber (+3.2%) but fell in the capital (-1.6%) and the North East (-1%).

On a regional basis, English house prices lagged behind the rest of the UK.

  • England: +0.5% year-on-year
  • Scotland: 1.4%
  • Wales: 3.3%
  • Northern Ireland: 4.0%

ONS Head of Inflation Mike Hardie points out that concert tickets, and package holidays, also became pricier last month:

“The headline rate of inflation remained steady with prices rising across a variety of goods and services such as chocolate, concert tickets and package holidays, offset by falling hotel costs and cigarette prices rising substantially slower than this time last year.

UK inflation: chocolate prices are rising

Food prices rose in November, particularly for chocolate, according to today’s inflation report.

The Office for National Statistics explains:

Prices rose between October and November 2019 by more than between the same two months a year ago, especially for sugar, jam, syrups, chocolate and confectionery (which rose by 1.8% this year, compared with a rise of 0.1% last year).

Within this group, boxes and cartons of chocolates, and chocolate covered ice cream bars drove the upward movement.

Recreation and culture costs rose at a faster rate last month, but that was balanced by smaller rises in hotel bills and tobacco prices.

Women’s clothes price inflation also slower, the ONS says:

Prices rose between October and November 2019 but by less than a year ago, especially for women’s garments (which rose by 1.3% this year, compared with 2.1% last year). Within this group, the largest individual contributions came from women’s formal trousers and strappy tops.

Britain’s inflation rate remains at its lowest since November 2016, as this chart shows:

Updated

Just in: UK inflation stuck at a three-year low of 1.5% last month.

That’s a little higher than expected, but still comfortably below the Bank of England’s target of 2%.

More to follow....

Big news in the auto sector: Peugeot and Fiat Chrysler have agreed to merge, creating the world’s four-biggest carmaker.

My colleague Jasper Jolly has the details:

The two parent companies, PSA Group and Fiat Chrysler Automobiles, confirmed there will be no plant closures as part of €3.7bn in cost savings from the merger, a key concern for more than 1,000 workers at PSA’s Vauxhall factory in Ellesmere Port.

PSA’s boss Carlos Tavares, who previously oversaw PSA’s successful integration and turnaround of the Vauxhall and Opel brands, will stay on as the chief executive of the new group, which will have combined annual sales of about 8.7m vehicles.

German business confidence rises

Newsflash: German business confidence has risen, as Europe’s largest economy continues to swerve a recession.

The IFO think tank has reported that Germany’s business leaders are more confident about future prospects, and that current economic conditions have brightened a little this month.

IFO estimates that the German economy may grow by 0.2% in the current quarter, as firms enter 2020 with “more confidence’.

Here’s the details:

  • Business climate index: UP to 96.3 in December, from 95.1
  • Current conditions: UP to 98.8, from 98
  • Business expectations: UP to 93.8 from 92.3

Updated

The pound is bobbing nervously this morning, currently below $1.309 at its lowest level since election day.

Rupert Harrison of asset manager BlackRock says Boris Johnson needs to tread more carefully, and help lower economic uncertainty rather than dolloping more onto the markets.

Back in London, the UK-focused FTSE 250 index has dipped in early trading.

The mid-cap index has lost 54 points or 0.25% at 21,636. Consumer stocks and financials are among the fallers.

Experienced City watchers often say that profit warnings come in threes.

Luxury audio equipment and TVs firm Bang & Olufsen has gone one better (or worse) with its FOURTH profits warning of the year.

Shares in Bang & Olufsen have fallen by 20% this morning, after it warned that sales were “considerably lower than expected” last month.

It now expects revenue to be 18% lower than a year ago.

Demand for Bang & Olufsen’s expensive equipment has faded as consumer behaviour changes -- rather than investing in a top-end hi-fi, younger people are more likely to be consuming music through their phones or smart speakers.

The company has tried to move with the times with some new ranges, such as its Beosound 2 with Google Assistant (a snip at, er, £1,650). But profits and cash flow are both weakening.

It’s also the season for profit warnings.

UK recruiter Staffline has slashed its profit forecasts for the second time in three, after suffering a slump in demand from customers.

It told investors:

During November, customer demand was down approximately 16% from the prior year which the Board believes reflects high levels of consumer uncertainty across the UK.

Alarmingly, Staffline also says it overstated its profits by £4m last year, due to accounting errors. The firm’s share have slumped by a third this morning.

Bet365's Coates paid £276m last year

Breaking: Denise Coates, who runs gambling site Bet365, has secured another MASSIVE payday.

Coates, who was already the world’s highest-paid woman, was paid a staggering £276.6m in the last financial year, up from £220m a year ago.

She’s will also have received dividend payments of around £46m, taking her total earnings to a scarcely imaginable £322m.

She picked up the payout after growing Bet365’s turnover to over £3bn last year, from £2.85bn, with profits rising to £791m from £660m. More than £64bn of bets were placed by customers.

Last year’s pay packet would have formed a tower almost twice as high as the Shard skyscraper in London, if paid in crisp £50 notes.

My colleague Rob Davies explained last year how Coates had turned the Stock-based firm into a major player:

Bet365 is the personal fiefdom of the Coates family, a business dynasty worth £5.8bn, more than Sir Richard Branson’s empire. The story of how they built their empire from a Portakabin in Stoke-on-Trent is the stuff of industry legend.

Coates’s father, Peter, the 80-year-old son of a miner, became a successful local businessman and owned a string of betting shops. But it was Coates, an econometrics graduate who, at around the turn of the millennium, became aware of the jackpot opportunity that lay online.

She bought the Bet365.com domain name from eBay for $25,000 and borrowed against the bricks-and-mortar stores to develop sports-betting technology that left slow-moving rivals in the dust.

When the likes of Ladbrokes and William Hill were buying the systems they needed from third parties, Bet365 already had them and was deploying them at great speed.

Updated

Shares in UK-focused companies are coming under fresh pressure this morning.

Housebuilders such as Barratt (-2.7%), Persimmon (-1.8%) and Berkeley Group (-1.7%) are among the top fallers.

Ocado (-1.4%) and Next (-1%) are also dropping, on fears that Brexit fears will hurt consumer spending.

Brexit jitters have pushed the pound down to a two-week low against the euro.

Sterling dropped as low as €1.1737 this morning, just a few days after hitting a three-year high over €1.20

FxPro senior market analyst Alex Kuptsikevich blames Boris Johnson’s “hard line” on trade negotiations with the EU.

The markets may have run ahead of the train again, expecting the volatility of the pound to be over. In this case, there are more and more similarities with Trump, whose arrival marked the increased uncertainty for the markets, although it still contributed more to their growth than to their decline for stocks.

Today’s UK inflation data (9.30am) may show that households are benefitting from a cap on gas and electricity bills.

Elsa Lignos of Royal Bank of Canada explains:

CPI inflation dropped to 1.5% y/y last month from 1.7% y/y previously. Almost all of that fall in CPI inflation was attributable to a cap on domestic energy prices. The effect will continue to drag on inflation again this month.

Our economists expect November CPI inflation to drop to what would be a three-year low of 1.4% y/y.

Economist and trade expert Dr Rebecca Harding says Downing Street’s Brexit strategy appears to have been taken straight from the White House:

“How should we assess Prime Minister Johnson’s proposed hard deadline for a Brexit deal? This is entirely strategic and straight out of the Trump playbook.

Boris said he’d get Brexit done and he will live by that promise. In reality, what we’ll probably see is a small deal so everyone wins, leaving many doors open and allowing things that need a little bit longer to get done at a more leisurely pace. The politics are all for show.”

Introduction: Pound sags as new Brexit deadline spooks City

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.

‘Tiz the season for a festive hangover. But rather than a champagne-induced headache, City traders are feeling groggy about the prospect of a new Brexit deadline crisis next year.

The pound is languishing below its levels before last week’s election this morning, at just $1.311 against the US dollar, after Boris Jonson vowed to outlaw extending EU trade deal talks beyond December 2020.

Should a deal not be reached during 2020, Britain would then risk sliding into World Trade Organisation trading terms -- not a palatable prospect, when the WTO itself is in some turmoil.

UK investors are facing up to the likelihood of another year dominated by Brexit, says David Madden of CMC Markets.

The UK is set to leave the EU on 31 January, and then the transition period will kick in until the end of the year. It would appear that Mr Johnson doesn’t want the transition period to run on and on, so he intends to pass legislation that will prevent that possibility. Even if a no-deal Brexit does happen, it won’t take place for over a year, so equity traders are not overly worried.

On the other hand, the pound sold-off aggressively yesterday on the back of the no-deal fears. All of the gains the pound made against the US dollar and the euro since the exit poll on election night have been reversed .Keep in mind the pound was broadly pushing higher in the months ahead of the election.

Also coming up

November’s inflation figures, due this morning, are expected to show that prices are rising relatively slowly. The consumer prices index is expected to have risen by just 1.4% compared with a year ago, down from 1.5% in October.

That would leave CPI well below the official 2% target, helping households as they face Christmas bills. But with wage growth slowing in the last quarter (we learned yesterday), real earnings may be coming under pressure.

The agenda

  • 9am GMT: IFO survey of German business confidence: Expected to rise to 95.5, from 95
  • 9.30am GMT: UK inflation data for November. CPI expected to fall to 1.4% from 1.5%
 

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