Graeme Wearden 

US economy smashes forecasts with 266,000 new jobs in November – business live

America’s non-farm payroll has surged by the most in 10 months, in a boost for the economy....and Donald Trump
  
  

Warner Brothers Cartoon characters ringing the closing bell on Wall Street last night.
Warner Brothers Cartoon characters ringing the closing bell on Wall Street last night. Photograph: Bryan R Smith/AFP via Getty Images

Finally, the UK’s FTSE 100 has rompped higher by the close of trading.

The blue-chip index has closed 101 points higher tonight at 7,239, a gain of almost 1.5%.

The stronger-than-expected US jobs report has calmed nerves after a volatile week. It has also been cheered in the White House:

Although the big picture is that America has been creating jobs at a steady rate for almost a decade now:

On that note....have a lovely weekend, and we’ll be back on Monday. GW

Today’s strong US jobs report bodes well for growth, and stock prices, in 2020.

So argues Hugh Grieves, Fund Manager at Premier Miton Investors:

“Headline payrolls blew away expectations, rising by 266,000 and far exceeding the 180,000 increase expected. Even when adjusting for the positive impact of the end of the General Motors strike, this is a very strong figure indicating that the US job market, and wider economy, is in good health. The unemployment rate fell 3.5%, the lowest level since December 1969.

The healthy labour market validates Chairman’s Powell’s view (shared by us) that the US economy is in decent shape and that interest rates can stay on hold for now, following the three “insurance cuts” earlier in the year. For President Trump, the strength of the US economy removes pressure on him to cut a quick trade deal with China so we may see more aggressive tweets from him in the near future.

All in all, although one positive data point is not a trend, this is a very good number and supportive of a positive view of US equities out into 2020.”

In other news... China isn’t the only country facing higher pork prices because of its swine fever crisis.

Over in Germany, there’s a ‘schnitzel alert’ as the cost of sausages and bacon across Europe rockets.

Here’s our US business editor Dominic Rushe on today’s jobs report:

The US added 266,000 new jobs in November boosted by the return to work of striking auto workers.

Economists had expected job growth to 187,000 in November, up from 128,000 in October and boosted by the return to work of 48,000 GM workers following a 40-day strike.

Manufacturing employment rose by 54,000 in November, following a decline of 43,000 in the prior month. Healthcare added 45,000 jobs.

The impressive headline growth rate was compounded by upward revisions for earlier months. The labor department revised October’s jobs growth to 156,000, up from 128,000 originally and September’s was revised up to 193,000 from 180,000.

Wall Street has opened higher, as traders hail today’s strong jobs report.

The Dow Jones industrial average is up 232 points, or 0.8%, at27,910.

Neil Wilson of Markets.com says:

Forget Star Wars, this year’s Christmas blockbuster is today’s nonfarm payrolls report. A blowout jobs number sent equities higher along with the US dollar and Treasury yields as it shows the US economy is doing better than many corners of the market feared.

But does that mean America’s central bank might raise interest rates, reversing its three cuts since the summer?

Wilson thinks not....

Should we worry about the Fed pivoting again? I don’t think so and the market clearly thinks the same.

The Fed can stand this sort of hot reading for a while yet – jobs growth is averaging only 180k this year vs 223k last year.

Mike Bell, global market strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, says today’s non-farm payroll suggests that America’s jobs market is robust.

It is shrugging off the trade war, a slowing global economy and a worldwide cooling in factory growth, he says:

“When corporate profits come under pressure, as they have this year, companies often respond by cutting jobs. So the critical question for investors in recent months has been whether the labour market would hold up.

“Today’s very strong job gains, even when adjusted for the return of striking GM workers, are a sign that the labour market remains remarkably robust despite the headwinds from the ongoing manufacturing slowdown and trade related uncertainty.

“Healthy employment growth has been the key pillar supporting equity markets even as the economy has slowed and today’s numbers show that pillar shows no signs of crumbling under the weight of political and profit pressures.”

Ben Casselman of the New York Times has posted a very decent thread of charts, which explain today’s US jobs report:

It’s a tale of two jobs reports!

Canada’s economy has suffered a drop in employment last month, with its non-farm payroll dropping by 71,000.

November’s strong jobs report suggests that America’s economy is taking the trade war with Chine in its stride.

Of course, you could speculate as to whether job creation and wage growth would be even stronger without the burden of tariffs on Chinese goods....

....and it’s likely that businesses would benefit from a ceasefire.

Richard Flynn, UK Managing Director at Charles Schwab, says:

“Today’s numbers have surpassed expectations, showing the highest reading since August, as seasonal hiring picked up and 45,000 GM workers returned to work, following the longest auto industry strike in 50 years. The upbeat data reinforces the strength of both the labour market and consumer confidence, despite slowing global growth and continued trade uncertainty.

“However, without a comprehensive trade deal with China that covers the major structural issues surrounding intellectual property, theft, technology transfers and supply chains, it is difficult to envisage a long-term resurgence in consumer and business confidence. While U.S. stocks have surged in hopes of a near-term ‘phase one’ trade deal by year end, major issues remain unresolved, and there is concern that investor sentiment is getting frothy.”

Almost every sector of the US economy has created jobs in the last year - as you’d hope.

The only real laggard? Retail, where the rise in e-commerce has forced shops on main street and at malls to close.

US Jobs report: snap reaction

As suspected, the end of the General Motors strike did boost job creation last month:

But the average number of jobs created over the last quarter is the best since January -- a sign that the labor market is strengthening.

Here’s more snap reaction:

Updated

Bloomberg’s Matthew Boesler has spotted that wage growth for some US workers has hit the highest level since the financial crisis.

Stocks are rallying on the back of this strong US jobs report.

In London the FTSE 100 is up 78 points, or 1.1%, to 7215. All the European markets are higher too.

Wall Street is set to open higher too, as worries about a US slowdown are eased.

November’s non-farm payroll is the strongest for 10 months. Good news for US workers, and particularly good news for Donald Trump.

Expect a tweet from @realdonaldtrump soon.....

In another boost, October’s non-farm payroll has been revised higher (as predicted). It shows that 156,000 new jobs were created, up from 128,000 originally.

September’s NFP has also been revised up, to 193,000 from 180,000.

Average hourly earnings across the US economy rose by 3.1% annually in November, today’s report shows. During the month, wages rose by 0.2%.

UK JOBS REPORT SMASHES FORECASTS

Newsflash: America’s economy created a LOT more jobs than expected in November.

The non-farm payroll expanded by 266,000 last month, smashing forecasts of 186,000 new jobs -- and defying the doomsters who thought it might be weak.

This has pulled the jobless rate down to 3.5%, from 3.6% last month.

More to follow!

Economists will also be looking for some earnings growth in today’s Non-Farm Payroll.

Last month’s report showed 3.0% wage growth, with the jobless rate sticking at just 3.6%.

The US president has just tweeted.....about the stock market rally of 2019.

Coming up... UK non-farm payroll

It’s nearly time for the final big economic news of the week, the US non-farm payroll for November.

Economists had predicted that it would show around 186,000 new jobs were created in America last month. That would be an improvement on October’s 128,000 (which will probably be revised today.

But there’s chatter that the NFP could miss expectations, after the ADP survey of private sector job creation hit its second-lowest level on Wednesday (at just 67,000).

The picture is complicated by the strike at General Motors, which ended last month.

https://twitter.com/MWellerFX/status/1202663686449577986

If you’re just tuning in, here’s Associated Press’s take on this morning’s weak German factory data:

October factory production dropped in Germany over the previous month in another sign the economy, Europe’s largest, is struggling.

The Federal Statistical Office reported Friday that industrial production fell 1.7% in October over September when adjusted for price, seasonal and calendar factors. It was down 5.3% over October 2018.

The agency reported Thursday that industrial orders in October were down 0.4%, suggesting an upturn in production is not likely in the immediate future.

Germany just narrowly avoided entering a recession in the third quarter and ING economist Carsten Brzeski says the data indicate the German economy is continuing to flirt with stagnation and contraction in the final quarter.

“Trade conflicts, global uncertainty, and disruption in the automotive industry have put the entire German industry in a headlock, from which it is hard to escape.

Sébastien Desreumaux, CEO of Eddie Stobart, says the firm can now crack on with shifting goods around the UK in the big Christmas rush:

“The Proposed Transaction provides Eddie Stobart with the opportunity to move forward and look to deliver sustainable growth and profitability from a stable footing.

Our main priority and focus is now continuing to deliver the high levels of services expected by our customers as we move into the busy Christmas period.”

Eddie Stobart saved from collapse

Breaking: Transport firm Eddie Stobart is being rescued from the brink of collapse.

Shareholders have just voted to approve a bailout from a private equity firm, which should prevent the firm - whose lorries are a popular sight on the UK roads - falling into administration.

My colleague Jasper Jolly explains:

Douglas Bay Capital (DBay), backed by the famous trucker’s son William Stobart, will take control of Eddie Stobart’s assets in a £75m bailout that should prevent the company going bankrupt before Christmas.

The deal represents a victory for William Stobart over his former brother-in-law, Andrew Tinkler, who had mounted a rival £80m bid to take over the firm with the backing of unnamed investors. The childhood friends have previously taken turns to run the company at various points in its recent history.

Tinkler was present at a short shareholder meeting on Friday morning in London. He spoke briefly against the DBay bid, although sources in the public company’s meeting – from which journalists were barred – said his tone was calm.

The vote offers a short-term reprieve for Eddie Stobart’s 6,500 workers, who had faced the prospect of the company falling into administration shortly before Christmas, and only months shy of the company’s 50th anniversary.

Sporting debuts are tricky things, but Amazon appears to have scored with its move into football.

The company is reporting a surge in sign-ups for Prime this week, from fans keen to watch streamed Premier League games (including a pulsating Merseyside derby and a rather entertaining clash between Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur).

But is this good news for fans? They already have to pay for Sky or BT Sport to get live Premiership action. More fragmentation means more subscriptions.

Here’s our news story on the Halifax house price index:

European stock markets are rallying thanks to China’s decision to waive some tariffs on US farm goods.

The main indices are all higher, lifting the EU-wide Stoxx 600 index by 0.4% back towards the four-year highs seen in late November.

China waives some tariffs in 'goodwill gesture'

After a turbulent week, there are signs that relations between the US and China are improving.

Overnight, China has decided to waive the tariffs on some imports of soybeans and pork from America.

Beijing’s finance minister said the waiver would be applied to applications from individual companies. It will allow them to avoid China’s 30% tariff on US soybeans and pork, imposed in retaliation to US tariffs.

One source told Reuters that the move shows that China is committed to reaching a trade deal with the US.

They said:

“The goal (of this move) is to expand purchases and reassure the United States.....

“It should be interpreted as a positive signal. Despite the many political difficulties the two sides face, economic and trade cooperation and moves to stop the escalation of the trade war are in the interest of both parties.”

China has offered similar waivers in the past, though it’s not been clear how many were granted or how long they lasted for.

The pork waivers could be particularly popular, given the swine fever epidemic that has ravaged China’s agricultural industry, driving prices sharply higher.

Here’s the latest house price data from Halifax, showing property prices rising at their fastest rate since the spring.

Economist Rupert Seggins points out that Halifax’s data shows a higher rise in house prices than other indices.

Housebuilder Berkeley Group has warned that political uncertainty is hurting the sector, after posting a sharp drop in profits.

It told shareholders this morning:

We remain alert to market risks with a General Election next week and the delay to the UK’s proposed exit from the European Union prolonging the uncertain operating environment of the last three years.

This is damaging to our economy and London where fewer developers are prepared or able to accept the high operational risk of bringing forward new homes, with supply falling as a consequence.

Berkeley reported a 31% drop in profits in the last six months, with revenues down 43%.

House prices jump: What the experts say

Here’s some snap reaction to the surprise rise in UK house prices last month:

Mark Harris, chief executive of mortgage broker SPF Private Clients:

‘It might be a little surprising to see the biggest monthly rise in house prices since February but the end of year can see a spike in sales as people aim to be in their new home for Christmas.

Jonathan Hopper, managing director of Garrington Property Finders:

With average wages rising at more than twice the rate of consumer inflation, homes are becoming steadily more affordable in many parts of the country.

“Mortgages remain cheap and the relative lack of competition among buyers, even for good homes, is enticing more strategic buyers to pounce.

“For now, the election has brought forward the traditional December slowdown, adding to the build-up of delayed demand.

Lucy Pendleton of estate agents James Pendleton:

“Contributing to the pick up in the annual pace of growth is the London market, which has started to bubble away again.

“In the capital, a big jump in the number of sales going to best-and-final offers is going hand in hand with increasing footfall through front doors as buyers’ appetites return.

UK house prices jump

Just in: UK house prices jumped 1% in November, the fastest monthly rise in seven months.

That’s according to mortgage lender Halifax, and suggests that the clouds of political uncertainty may be lifting a little.

On an annual basis, prices were 2.1% higher than a year ago, Halifax reports.

Russell Galley, managing director at Halifax, explains that low interest rates - and a shortage of properties - are keeping prices up.

“Average house prices rebounded somewhat in November, with annual growth of 2.1% being driven by the biggest monthly rise since February, following two months of modest falls.

Prices are now up by £3,904 since the start of the year. While a degree of uncertainty remains evident, it’s also clear that buyers and sellers are responding to factors such as improved mortgage affordability and the limited supply of available properties.

It is these issues which we believe will continue to underpin the resilience evident in the market for most of 2019. Over the medium term we expect the emerging trend of modest gains to continue into next year.”

German recession fears after 'disastrous' factory data

The slump in German factory output in October is so bad that it could drag the wider economy back towards recession.

Oliver Rakau of Oxford Economics says the plunge in production is “disastrous”, and could mean that the economy shrinks in the final quarter of this year.

Germany only just dodged a recession, with modest growth in Q3, but Q4 is not starting well. Earlier this week, factories reported a drop in orders, which could signal further weakness in the months ahead.

Here’s Carsten Brzeski, chief economist at ING Germany, on the factory slump:

Today’s data suggests that the German economy is continuing to flirt with stagnation and contraction in the final quarter of the year.

Capacity utilisation has dropped to its lowest level since early 2013. At the same time, the well-known supply-side constraints have also started to ease but not with the same magnitude as capacity utilisation. The lack of skilled employees and too little equipment as limiting factors have dropped to their 2017-levels, suggesting that the current slump in manufacturing is still a combination of supply-side and demand-side factors.

Looking ahead, both soft and hard indicators bode ill for industrial activity in the months ahead. Production expectations show very tentative signs of stabilisation at low levels but order books are still shrinking and inventories remain high. Trade conflicts, global uncertainty and disruption in the automotive industry have put the entire German industry in a headlock, from which it is hard to escape.

Updated

Analysts: Biggest fall in German industrial production in a decade

On an annual basis, Germany just suffered its worst drop in factory output since the financial crisis!

Introduction: German industrial output falls sharply

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.

2019 is turning into a year to forget for Germany. Factory output has slumped again as problems at home and abroad batter Europe’s largest economy.

Industrial output fell by 1.7% month-on-month in October, new figures show. That’s much worse than expected, showing that the recession across German factories hasn’t eased up.

On an annual basis, output was 5.3% lower than in October 2018, as trade tensions and problems in Germany’s car industry have hurt activity.

The decline was driven by a 4.4% month-on-month slide in production of capital goods -- the pricy heavy-duty machinery and equipment that has been the bedrock of Germany’s economy.

Germany’s problems are part of a wider picture -- manufacturing data has been weak around the globe this year as the world economy has slowed. But it has certainly suffered more than most.

Germany’s economy ministry fears that it could take several months for the situation to stabilise. It says:

“The economic weakness in industry remains.

However, the latest developments in new orders and business expectations indicate that a stabilising trend could emerge in the coming months.”

Reaction to follow....

Also coming up today

Investors will scrutinise the latest US jobs report for signs that America’s labour market is slowing.

Over in Vienna, Opec are trying to hammer out a 500,000 barrels/day cut to oil production levels. There’s clearly a disagreement over how to implement the deal -- ministers talked late into the night, when they were due at a gala dinner to celebrate the success of the alliance #awkward .

European stock markets are expected to open higher, shaking off the jitters that sparked a selloff earlier this week. Traders are still hoping for progress in the US-China trade talks, before the 15 December deadline when Washington could impose new tariffs.

And the future of UK trucking business Eddie Stobart will be decided today, as shareholders vote on a rescue plan.

My colleague Jasper Jolly explains:

The vote will pit William Stobart, the third son of the company’s founder, against his childhood friend and former brother-in-law, Andrew Tinkler.

If their competing bids fall through, the company could collapse under the weight of a huge debt pile months before its 50th birthday.

The agenda

  • 1.30pm GMT: US non-farm payroll for November. Expected to show 183,000 new jobs created, up from 128,000
 

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