Closing summary
Time for our closing summary.
- On Wall Street, the Dow Jones dipped at the open as shares in Boeing fell more than 2%. The Dow fell 14 points to 28,221.75. The S&P 500 edged up 4 points, or 0.12%, to 3,195.40 while the Nasdaq gained 15 points, or 0.17%, to 8,829.47.
- The UK’s FTSE 100 is down 14 points, or 0.19% at 7,505.15 as the ‘Boris bounce’ fizzled out. Housebuilders and banks are among the biggest fallers, along with Unilever, which warned of weaker-than-expected sales growth today. European stock markets are also mostly trading lower.
- The pound has tumbled 1.3% to $1.3160 – back towards levels seen before Thursday’s general election. The government is preparing to pass legislation that could cause a cliff-edge Brexit at the end of next year.
- Britain’s factories suffered their worst slump in activity since the financial crisis a decade ago.
- The latest UK labour market data are a bit of a mixed bag: unemployment is down and employment is up, but wage growth has slowed and job vacancies have fallen.
Good-bye – we’ll be back tomorrow.
An independent report has slammed the “poor culture” at Persimmon, one of the UK’s biggest housebuilders, which has come under heavy criticism for its shoddy workmanship and paying a £75m bonus to its former chief executive last year. In particular, the report highlighted the firm’s failure to install properly cavity barriers at its timber-framed houses, a key fire safety measure.
The review, led by Stephanie Barwise QC of law firm Atkin Chambers, called on the company to reconsider its purpose and ambition, and to fundamentally change its culture. Persimmon commissioned the review in April and took other steps to rebuild its tarnished reputation. Its last annual profit topped £1bn, the biggest ever made by a UK housebuilder, and a big chunk of it was related to the taxpayer-funded help-to-buy scheme.
The report said Persimmon’s issue with “missing or improperly fitted cavity barriers is a systemic nationwide problem, which is a manifestation of poor culture coupled with the lack of a group build process”.
The barriers are designed to stop fire spreading. Persimmon said it had checked 16,000 homes and fixed the majority of those affected, and is inspecting more than 500 homes a week. Two-fifths of the houses it builds every year are timber frame.
Persimmon said it was taking the issue very seriously and had taken “extensive action,” after discovering failings at various stages in the installation of cavity barriers at some properties. There has been inadequate supervision by the company and the approved building control inspector, NHBC, it said. Persimmon appointed fire engineering firm Arup in November to assess any further steps it should take.
Over here, the FTSE 100 is trading some 16 points lower at 7,502.51, a 0.22% fall. Germany’s Dax has lost 0.57% and France’s CAC is down 0.25% while Italy’s FTSE MiB has bucked the negative trend with a 0.7% rise.
The opening bell has rung on Wall Street. Stocks are largely flat, as expected, staying close to yesterday’s record closing levels.
- Dow Jones down 8.39 points, or 0.03%, at 28,227.50
- S&P 500 up 3.65 points, or 0.1%, at 3,195.1
- Nasdaq up 15.49 points, or 0.18%, at 8,827.72
The pound is still trading down 1.4% against the dollar, at $1.3147 – signalling that the ‘Boris Bounce’ is over. Investors are back to worrying that Britain will fail to agree a new trade deal with the EU by the end of next year.
Looking ahead to the Wall Street open, stocks are expected to open close to yesterday’s record closing levels. Boeing, however, is set for its worst open since August after the US aircraft maker decided to halt production of its grounded 737 Max plane.
Back to the US, which has released more data, this time on industrial production. Output from manufacturers, miners and utilities rose 1.1% in November, which was better than expected, and a strong bounceback from October’s decline of 0.9%.
Manufacturing alone also posted 1.1% growth, following a 0.7% drop in October.
Updated
Sadly, another UK retailer has gone into administration, just a week before Christmas. The online and pop-up bookseller The Book People appointed administrators at PricewaterhouseCoopers, putting almost 400 jobs at risk.
At least, there will be no immediate job losses, according to the administrators, who also promised that Christmas orders already placed by customers will be fulfilled. PwC are now looking for a buyer of the business.
My colleague Sarah Butler writes:
The business makes 70% of its sales online, delivered from its warehouse in Bangor, Wales, and is thought to have suffered from heavy competition from Amazon. It also sells direct to schools and businesses, with pop-up shops in workplaces.
It recently launched the Big Book Boost programme, which aimed to donate more than a million books to schools by 2022.
Toby Underwood, joint administrator and a partner at PwC, said The Book People would continue to trade and no immediate redundancies were envisaged as a rapid sale of the business was explored.
Updated
He also said that the US needed to reduce its trade gap with Europe to get its global trade deficit down, and that it must find ways to sell more goods to the EU.
The US trade representative, Robert Lighthizer, has given an interview to Fox Business Network. He said that a trade between the US and the UK is a priority for Washington and negotiations will be launched soon.
For sure, the UK is a priority. As soon as they get their objectives agreed to, we’ll start talking.
The US housing market is benefiting from low mortgage rates, and is propping up the wider economy. Construction of single-family houses – the largest share of the housing market – rose 2.4% to 938,000 units, the highest level since January. The number of multi-family homes started jumped 4.9% to 427,000.
US building permits at 12 1/2 year high
US housing starts rose more than expected last month, and permits for future home construction jumped to a 12 1/2 year high, according to data just released by the US Commerce Department.
The figures painted a rosy picture of the American housing market. The number of houses started rose 3.2% to 1.365m last month, with single-family construction reaching a 10-month high. Building permits increased 1.4% to 1.482m in November, the highest level since May 2007.
Here is more reaction to the poor factory numbers from the CBI. Howard Archer, chief economic adviser to the EY Item Club forecasting group, says:
There is little in the December industrial trends survey to inspire hopes that the new year will bring better times for the UK manufacturing sector after what looks to have been a very difficult fourth quarter.
However, the hope for manufacturers is that reduced uncertainties following the decisive General Election result and the UK now leaving the EU with Boris Johnson’s deal on 31 January will encourage businesses to invest more and lift consumer willingness to buy big-ticket items.
However, significant Brexit uncertainties remain which, along with a challenging global environment may limit the upside for investment in 2020. Consumers may also face less favourable fundamentals due to a softer labour market and reduced earnings growth.
Summary
Time for a quick recap.
The pound has suffered a sharp tumble as the government prepares to pass legislation that could cause a “cliff-edge” Brexit at the end of next year. Sterling has slumped by nearly 1.5 cents today to below $1.32, back towards levels seen before Thursday’s general election.
The Boris Bounce in the stock market has also fizzled out. Share in banks and housebuilders are among the big fallers today, with Lloyds down 5%.
Britain’s factories have suffered their worst slump in activity since the financial crisis a decade ago. Orders also took a worrying tumble, suggesting manufacturing’s recession isn’t over.
The latest UK labour market statistics are a mixed bag. Unemployment is down (good) and employment is up (also good), but wage growth has slowed (bad) and vacancies are down too (worrying).
CBI: We'll help get a good trade
The CBI’s director general, Carolyn Fairbairn, has issued a statement pledging to help Boris Johnson secure a new trade deal with the EU by the end of next year.
She says:
“Business has had enough of uncertainty and shares the Prime Minister’s ambition for a fast EU trade deal. With only a year to go, we are committed to working with the Government to secure an ambitious deal that supports all sectors of the economy. Every step in the negotiations will have an impact on jobs, firms and communities.
“Speed and ambition can go hand in hand if the right approach is taken. There’s no time to lose, with a top priority being to build a best-in-class trade architecture, with business round the table, enabling EU trade talks to begin early in the new year. Firms stand ready to bring the evidence needed from factories and boardrooms across the UK to enable a good trade deal to be agreed as quickly as possible.”
In the past, the CBI - which opposed Brexit in 2016 - has sounded more critical about the issue. Last month, MPs attacked it for not applying for funds to help businesses with their no-deal preparations.
The CBI also resisted commenting on whether it thinks achieving a trade deal by December 2020 is achievable. Former Trade secretary Liam Fox has said today that it’s possible....
Updated
Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at Forex.com, says he pound was hit by a double whammy of bad news this morning.
First and foremost, it was reports that the UK government will block the EU transition extension beyond 2020, raising concerns that this could potentially result in a hard Brexit. Then, the latest wages data came in below expectations while unemployment claims grew more than anticipated.
As a result, the GBP/USD further extended its post-election losses to hit a low so far of 1.3156. But at the time of writing, the cable was coming off its worst levels as the buyers attempted to defend a key short-term support level around 1.3180.
And here’s the result:
Here’s our news story on today’s UK jobs report:
Today’s dire UK factory data haven’t helped the pound - it’s still wallowing around $1.32, down a cent this morning.
Deutsche Bank has warned its clients that the pound is likely to weaken in 2020, as renewed Brexit uncertainty threaten to drag the economy into a recession.
UK manufacturers are crying out for some economic certainty, says Anna Leach, the CBI’s deputy chief economist.
Here’s her take on this morning’s worrying factory data:
“With manufacturers reporting that output is declining at a pace not seen since the financial crisis, alongside another month of softer order books, it is crucially important to rebuild business confidence in this sector.
“After three years of gridlock, the Prime Minister now has a clear mandate to govern. Businesses across the UK will want him to break the cycle of uncertainty. Firms will be looking for reassurance of the new Government’s commitment to getting the UK economy fighting fit as it prepares to exit the EU.”
The slump in UK factory output this autumn is due to Brexit worries, and weakness in the global economy, says Tom Crotty of chemicals giant INEO.
“These disappointing figures are reflective of the widespread weakness in the global manufacturing sector and the impact of continued Brexit uncertainty in the run-up to the General Election.
“Following the General Election, manufacturers will be eager to see the Prime Minister break the cycle of Brexit uncertainty as a priority. There is also a fresh opportunity for the sector to work with the government to solve long-term challenges such as raising productivity, addressing skills shortages, improving sustainability and tackling climate change.”
Updated
UK factories suffer worst quarter since 2009
NEWSFLASH: Britain’s factory sector has suffered its worth quarter since the financial crisis, as Brexit uncertainty hurts the sector.
The CBI has reported that output volumes fell in the three months to December, at the fastest pace since the financial crisis, with output expanding in only six out of 17 sub-sectors.
The headline fall in output was primarily driven by the motor vehicles sub-sector -- probably because several carmakers held shutdowns in November in case Britain had crashed out of the EU at the end of October.
Factory bosses also reported that order books were weaker than normal, a worrying sign for prospects in 2020.
The CBI says:
Manufacturing activity worsened in December, finishing off what has been a generally difficult year for the sector following the stockpiling boost in Q1 2019. Output volumes in the three months to December fell at their quickest rate since the financial crisis. Export order books worsened noticeably, while total order books remained similarly weak to November, and both remain considerably weaker than their respective long-run averages.
Meanwhile, stocks of finished goods rose further above “adequate” levels. Looking ahead, manufacturers expect output to fall at a slower pace.
UK businesses need to pay attention to Boris Johnson’s Brexit strategy, and keep preparing for a no-deal crisis at the end of next year.
So says Paul Hardy, Brexit director at global law firm DLA Piper:
“Cementing the end of the transition in legislation is a game-changer. It shows this is not a negotiating tactic.
Businesses must now expect a limited trade deal in goods with the EU on 1 January 2021, but not in services; or the possibility of no deal at all. They should keep their no-deal Brexit planning warm: it may well come in useful in a year.”
Shares in UK-focused companies are sliding further into the red, wiping out some of the gains recorded on Friday.
Banks are in the front-line, on fears that a new cliff-edge Brexit crisis will weaken the economy in 2020. That’s driven Royal Bank of Scotland down by 4% -- a blow to the government, which still owns a majority stake.
Property companies, which are also vulnerable to economic worries, are also among the top fallers on the FTSE 100 this morning. British Land, which owns Meadowhall shopping centre in Sheffield and built the Cheesegrater in London, is down 3.5%.
Sterling’s slump today is a timely reminder that Brexit is far from over, despite Boris Johnson’s election claims that he would get it “done” and move onto other issues.
Dean Turner, economist at UBS Wealth Management, has warned that sterling will remain highly volatile over the next few months, with a crucial deadline falling in the summer.
“The pound’s latest slide is symptomatic of the fact that Brexit is a way off being “done”, and will remain important for sterling over the coming months.
“Despite the Prime Minister’s new-found majority spurring a relief rally, gains were always likely to be capped as investors turned their attention to phase two of the talks. The deadline for extending the UK’s transition period beyond the end of next year comes on 1 July. The risk of the UK reverting to trading with the EU on WTO terms could still drive larger GBP moves, particularly given the latest noises coming out of Downing Street.
“We expect a trading range between 1.30 and 1.40 until June.”
Pound weak as Gove defends Brexit plan
Back in the markets, sterling is still being pummelled by Brexit fears.
The pound is still down more than 1% against the dollar, below $1.32, as investor worry that Britain will fail to agree a new trade deal with the EU by the end of next year.
The recent ‘Boris Bounce’ is well and truly over, as the government hardens its commitment to ending the withdrawal period at the end of December. Remember, the pound hit $1.35 as the election results rolled in during the early hours of Friday morning.
Michael Gove, who has been closely involved with no-deal Brexit planning, has defended the plan to make it illegal to request an extension to EU alignment beyond 2020.
He told BBC Breakfast that the government is fully committed to delivering Brexit on time.
We are going to leave the European Union on 31 January because of the withdrawal agreement. And then the political declaration, which goes alongside the withdrawal agreement, commits both sides to making sure that the follow-up conversations are concluded by the end of 2020.”
And he denied that the December 2020 deadline could slip:
“No. We are going to make sure we get this deal done in time.”
There’s a real gender split in today’s unemployment report.
The number of employed men jumped by 54,000 on the quarter to 17.31m, while the number of employed women fell by 30,000 to 15.49m. That reverses a recent trend, which has seen more women entering the labour market (partly due to pension changes).
If you include bonuses, UK pay growth also took a hit last month.
Total pay only rise by 3.2% per year in the August-October period, down from 3.7% a month ago, today’s labour market report shows.
That’s partly because some workers received bigger bonuses in October 2018 than this year.
UK wage growth weakens, but jobless rate still very low
Newsflash: Britain’s unemployment rate has stuck at its lowest level in 45 years, but wage growth has slowed.
The jobless rate was 3.8% in the three months to October, the Office for National Statistics says, matching last month’s reading.
The ONS explains:
For August to October 2019, an estimated 1.28 million people were unemployed. This is 93,000 fewer than a year earlier and 673,000 fewer than five years earlier.
But average earnings only rose by 3.5% per annum during the quarter, down from 3.6% a month ago. That means real wage growth (accounting for inflation) have dropped -- a blow to families in the run-up to Christmas.
The ONS also reports that the employment rate has hit a new all-time high, at 76.2%, up from 75.8% a year ago.
Updated
Kit Juckes, foreign exchange analyst at Société Générale, says Johnson’s tough line on the post-Brexit trade talks has caught the markets by surprise.
The news that UK PM Johnson plans to rule out (legally) any extension to the transition period after the UK leaves the EU has given sterling a kicking this morning.
Those who thought that a big majority would free the PM to take a patient approach to negotiate the best possible deal, have been caught by surprise. And that’s most UK economists and strategists. Ho hum.
Britain’s FTSE 250 index of medium-sized listed companies is also suffering a bout of Brexit blues.
The FTSE 250, seen as a barometer of the UK economy,has shed 1.25% or 272 points to 21582.
Financial stocks such as Virgin Money (-4%) are among the fallers, along with housebuilder Crest Nicholson (-5%).
Michael Hewson of CMC Markets says:
In essence all of the big gainers of the past few days are giving back some of their gains as the reality check of the possibility of a no deal Brexit, while still over a year away, has tempered some of the enthusiasm from last Thursday’s election result.
The FTSE 100, though, is flat this morning as multinational companies are getting a boost from the weak pound (it makes their overseas earnings more valuable).
Some City investors had thought that Boris Johnson would ‘pivot’ to the centre ground now he has a solid majority in parliament.
The plan for a new cliff-edge Brexit deadline in a year’s time has dashed those hopes.
Neil Wilson of Markets.com writes:
Sterling tripped over its heels as Boris Johnson is looking to legislate for Britain to leave the EU fully in Dec 2020 with or without a trade deal. That means no possible way to extend the transition period. I must confess to believing he wouldn’t need to be so drastic, that a large majority offered the flexibility yet strength a government craves in deal making.
This sets up another cliff-edge and could create yet more months of uncertainty for investors just when we thought all was squared away.
Faisal Islam of the BBC says there’s a growing chance that Britain will be trading on WTO terms with the EU in just over year:
Boeing suppliers hit by 737 Max suspension
Brexit isn’t the only thing hurting the stock market today.
Boeing’s decision overnight to suspend production of its troubled 737 MAX jet is a blow to hundreds of suppliers.
UK engineering firm Senior, which makes various parts for Boeing including airframes, has fallen by 8% this morning. That make it the worst-performing of the biggest 350 companies in London.
Industrial group Melrose, which also counts Boeing as a major customer, are down 1%. French aircraft parts maker Safran has shed 3%.
Airlines are also under pressure, on fears that they’ll face longer delays before the 737 Max enters service. International Airlines Group, which owns British Airways, has lost 2.3%.
Analyst: Johnson's Brexit threat has scrooged the pound
The pound is also suffering further losses against the euro, now down over one eurocent at €1.183 as traders anticipate a cliff-edge Brexit crisis next year.
That’s a hefty fall, which sends sterling back towards last week’s levels before the election result.
The realities of a majority Boris Johnson government have begun to dawn on the pound, says Connor Campbell of SpreadEx.
The newly minted Prime Minister and his team are working on amending the withdrawal agreement to make sure that the so-called transition period must end on December 31st 2020, seeking to ‘legally prohibit government agreeing to any extension’.
With the threat of a no-deal Brexit re-emerging the other side of the election sterling’s extremely festive December was, if not cut short, then certainly a bit scrooged following these reports.
The selloff is gathering pace! Sterling is now down more than a cent against the US dollar at $1.322.
Boris Johnson’s plan to outlaw extending the Brexit withdrawal period beyond December 2020 risks a new no-deal split with the EU, warns Bloomberg.
They point out that previous trade deals have taken rather longer than 11 months.
The U.K. prime minister wants to deliver his election promise to ratify a new free-trade agreement with the bloc before the bridging period maintaining the status quo runs out on Dec. 31, 2020.
EU leaders have warned it’s highly unlikely that negotiators will be able to complete the kind of deal Johnson wants, which he’s modeled on Canada’s agreement with the EU, in the 11 months between Brexit day Jan. 31 and the December deadline. The EU-Canada deal took seven years to finalize.
UK company shares fall as markets face Brexit reality
Shares in some UK-focused companies are sliding in early trading, as Brexit fears make an unwelcome reappearance on trading floors.
Housebuilders are among the top fallers, with Barratt Development losing 3.4% and Taylor Wimpey down 2%.
Banks are also under pressure, with Lloyds down 4% and Royal Bank of Scotland dropping by 3%.
Traders are getting a dose of Brexit reality, says Kyle Rodda of IG, recognising that the trade deal negotiations between London and Brussels will be tough next year.
There was a small hiccup this morning in the markets, that might be described as a bit of a reality check.
Stocks and futures markets had their wings clipped by news that UK PM Boris Johnson is planning to pass legislation that would legally block the Brexit transition period from extending beyond December 2020.
The pound has now lost much of its post-election surge, having briefly spiked over $1.35 in the early hours of Friday morning.
Introduction: Markets fear cliff-edge in December 2020
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.
After two days of strong gains, the City is subdued this morning as investors ponder how the next phase of Brexit will play out.
The pound is coming under pressure, dropping by over half a cent against the US dollar back to $1.326. It’s also sliding back against the euro to below €1.19, just a couple of days after hitting three-year highs.
Relief that Britain should exit in an orderly manner from the EU in a month’s time has been replaced by a new fear -- a rock-hard Brexit from December 2020 when the transition period ends.
Overnight, it’s emerged that the government plans to tie its own hands with an amendment ruling out extending that transition beyond the end of 2020. Minister insist that they will have agreed the future relationship with Europe by then; many experts are less confident, suggesting it could take years.
Boris Johnson’s cunning plan is to force the EU to offer a good deal, but it’s likely to create a lot more uncertainty next year -- which is bad for sterling.
Elsa Lignos of Royal Bank of Canada explains:
The British pound [GBP] took a hit in Asia and is under pressure again in early London trading on news that the govt plans to create a Dec 2020 cliff-edge.
he plan, first reported by ITV overnight is that the Withdrawal Agreement Bill “will legally prohibit the government agreeing to any extension” according to a senior government official. The idea is that it will force the EU to offer a better deal with the prospect of WTO-exit looking at the end of next year. In practice it would erode all the positives of a large Tory majority and bring us back to previous position of GBP uncertainty rising rather than falling next year. If passed, it would mean further GBP downside.
Shares are also expected to dip this morning in London, following a two-day ‘Boris Bounce’ .
Global factors also pushed shares up around the globe, boosting the FTSE 100 index by over £40bn on Monday, as my colleague Larry Elliott explains:
The stock market has been boosted by a combination of factors – the prospect of an end to Brexit uncertainty, the removal of the threat of re-nationalisation following Labour’s defeat, and hopes that the interim trade deal between the US and China signals a rolling back of protectionism.
London’s strong performance was part of a global trend that saw all three of Wall Street’s major share price indices lifted to record highs amid optimism of stronger, faster growth. Chinese share prices hit a six-week high and oil prices also rallied.
Also coming up today
The latest UK unemployment report is expected to show that wage growth in Britain has slowed. Average earnings, excluding bonuses, are expected to have risen by just 3.4% in the last quarter, down from 3.6%.
So with the jobless rate tipped to rise to 3.9% from 3.8%, we may see signs that the labour market has cooled.
The agenda
- 9.30am GMT: UK unemployment report. Jobless rate expected to rise to 3.9% from 3.8%
- 11am GMT: CBI’s survey of UK industrial trends. Orders index expected to rise to -25, from -26
Updated