Figures published on Monday showed the economy was going backwards in November while the politicians were out canvassing for votes. Activity in the last full month before the general election fell by 0.3% and the annual growth rate slipped to a seven-and-a-half-year low of 0.6%. Manufacturing reported a hefty fall in output and the service sector contracted, too.

Those are the facts that will be mulled over by the nine members of the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee when they meet to set interest rates on 30 January. It is perhaps unsurprising, then, that the City thinks the prospects of a cut in borrowing costs have gone up. A week ago the financial markets put the chances of a rate cut at 5%. Now it is 50%.

In the past, the MPC would have been expected to take measures to stimulate the economy with data as weak as that published by the Office for National Statistics. Even so, action at Mark Carney’s final meeting is by no means a done deal, and there is a reason for that.

November was a strange month, wedged between the ditched deadline for the UK to leave the EU and the general election. There was evidence – from a big fall in imports – of firms running down their inventories and waiting to see what polling day would bring. The distribution arm of services was affected by the timing of Black Friday, which depressed retail sales in November but will boost them in December.

While poor, some analysts pointed out that the figures were not as bad as they looked. Moreover, the anecdotal evidence from business surveys suggests that activity has picked up since the election. So the seven MPC members who voted for no change at the last meeting may want a bit more evidence that the economy’s weakness is permanent before taking the plunge.