Nationwide house prices figures are also out today.

They showed that house prices ended 2019 1.4% higher than at the start of the year at an average of £215,282 in December.

It’s the first time the rate of growth has been above 1% for 12 months. Property values edged up by 0.1% month on month.

Robert Gardner, Nationwide’s chief economist, said:

Indicators of UK economic activity were fairly volatile for much of 2019 but the underlying pace of growth appeared to slow through the year as a result of weaker global growth and an intensification of Brexit uncertainty.”

Scotland was the strongest performer, with prices up by 2.8% in the fourth quarter of 2019, compared with a year earlier. It was the first time since 2008 that Scotland ended the year as the top performer, Nationwide said.

For those of you following the Carlos Ghosn saga, my colleague Rob Davies has the latest:

A Turkish private jet company has claimed it was duped into hiring the aircraft used to help the fugitive automotive boss Carlos Ghosn make a daring escape from Japan.

MNG Jet said it leased two private jets it believed were for two separate clients, one flying from Dubai to Osaka in Japan and then on to Istanbul, and another flying from Istanbul to Beirut.

The company said it had since discovered the planes were not leased for the named passengers but were instrumental in Ghosn’s escape to Lebanon from Japan, where the former Nissan chairman was facing trial over allegations of financial misconduct. He has consistently denied the charges.

You can read more here:

It is still unclear how the general election and the upcoming 31 January Brexit date will end up affecting consumer behaviour across the UK.

Howard Archer, chief economic advisor to the EY ITEM Club has weighed in following the consumer credit data release:

There had been signs in the latter months of the year that consumers had become more concerned by the combination of a struggling domestic economy as well as heightened domestic political and Brexit uncertainties.

Up until then, consumers had seemingly been prepared to brush off Brexit and other uncertainties and keep spending at a reasonable pace – helped by improved purchasing power and recent record high employment.

He adds:

The fundamentals for consumers may well have peaked around mid-2019, although they are likely to remain relatively decent.

The latest Bank of England’s credit condition survey indicated that lenders reduced the amount of unsecured credit available to consumers in the third quarter of 2019 for an 11^th successive quarter. It was expected to decline further in the fourth quarter.

Additionally, lenders were reported to have further tightened their lending standards for granting unsecured consumer loan applications in the third quarter of 2019. This was a 12^th successive quarter of tightening standards.

A further and even more significant tightening of lending standards was anticipated over the fourth quarter of 2019.

My colleague Richard Partington reminds us that despite today’s Brent crude spike, the price of oil remains below a peak of about $75 a barrel recorded in April last year.

Several major nations have become less dependent on Middle Eastern oil in recent years, including the US, which has ramped up domestic shale production.

You can read his full story here:

The Financial Conduct Authority’s new affordability rules may provide some explanation of net repayment of credit cards in November.

Credit card companies have been chasing customers who are deemed to be in persistent debt and who have made a habit of making minimum payments. They are being told to raise their payments or risk having their credit card suspended.

This may have spurred more customers to increase their payments.

Some customers are also being offering ways of repaying their debts more quickly, say by transferring a credit card balance to a personal loan with lower interest to be paid over three to four years. Those transfers may also be part of the story.

The FCA’s regulations are targeted at customers in persistent debt for at least 36 months, who end up paying more in interest fees and charges than the original amount they borrowed. Most have made a long-term habit of only making minimum payments each month, masking underlying financial troubles.

We wrote more about the affordability rules over Christmas. Take a look:

This handy bar chart illustrates consumer credit flows across the UK since 2013 –focused specifically on credit card data.

It should give you a sense of how rare it actually is to see the kind of net repayment of credit cards that was logged in November.

Rising tensions between the US and Iran could end up pushing UK inflation above the 2% target – though it would require a sustained uptick in crude prices over the coming months.

That’s the view of Professor Costas Milas from the the University of Liverpool’s who has written in this morning. He said:

The Bank of England’s latest Inflation Report forecasts CPI inflation to drop from 1.65% in 2020 Q1 to 1.16% in 2020 Q2, and UK GDP growth to pick up from a very weak annual growth of 0.66% in 2020 Q1 to 1.30% in 2020 Q2.

These forecasts are based on the assumption that Brent oil prices will stay at $59 per barrel throughout 2020. Oil prices are currently trading at the much higher value of $69.

Rising tensions between the US and Iran have the potential of triggering a further hike in oil prices which will push inflation above the 2% and derail the already anaemic economic performance.

This chart from the Bank of England’s latest statistical release shows the steady decline in consumer credit growth since 2017.

Simon French, chief economist at Panmure Gordon, suggests the slowdown in unsecured consumer lending (read: credit cards, student loans and personal loans) is “nothing overly concerning.”

Max Jones, a relationship director in Lloyds Bank’s infrastructure and construction team, says the construction PMI data caps a difficult year for the sector.

The industry will hope that 2020 brings more clarity which will help boost confidence. Whether this happens or not is still to be seen, but either way the onus will continue to be on firms to invest. Those doing so now are more likely to reap the rewards further down the line when the sector returns to growth.

A renewed commitment to major infrastructure projects, where a noticeable drop off in new work has been reported, would go a long way to offering longer-term stability to order books.

On the commercial side, investment levels should naturally increase if the economy is buoyed by the political certainty, even if further clarity is needed in regards to Brexit.

The rising share price of oil majors has kept the FTSE 100 from falling further into the red on the back of the US air strike.

London’s blue chip index is currently down just shy of 0.5%.

Connor Campbell, a financial analyst at SpreadEx, explains:

Though Suleimani may be unknown by many in the West, some political analysts have likened him to a US vice president in terms of profile, while he has previously been described as the ‘single most powerful operative in the Middle East’.

Important to bear in mind when considering the kind of response that could be expected from Iran (a nation, remember, that has major ties to Russia and China).

The markets were quick to react, with the DAX and CAC losing 0.9% and 0.6% respectively (not quite all of yesterday’s gains, but still a decent chunk).

The Dow Jones, meanwhile, is set to drop 0.9% when the bell rings on Wall Street, though that figure could very easily change dependent on what happens between now and then.

In contrast to its US and Eurozone peers, the FTSE was only down 0.4%. That’s because Brent Crude rose 3.3% after the drone strike, lifting BP and Shell up around 1.3-1.4% in the process.

Oil stocks are some of the biggest gainers on the London stock exchange, following the spike in crude prices.

• BP is up 1.4%
• Royal Dutch Shell is up 1.2%
• Tullow Oil is up 5.9%
• Premier Oil is up 4.4%

Traders are flocking to safe haven assets, including bonds and gold.

Spot gold prices are nearing four month highs, up 0.9% at $1,543.

US Treasury yields, which move inversely to the price, hit their lowest level in three weeks.

Meanwhile, the price UK gilts and German bunds have also jumped.

There is an interesting comment in this FT piece (£) written by the head of the FastFT blog Adam Samson, suggesting traders will be holding emergency meetings to assess the investment risks arising from fresh political tensions.

The article quotes Olivier Jakob, managing director of oil consultants Petromatrix, saying:

The killing of Soleimani calls for a serious increase of the geopolitical risk premium.

This was supposed to be a holiday week for many traders. Many will be cutting the holidays short and call-in for an emergency risk meeting.

European stock markets have opened lower as expected, reversing yesterday’s gains.

• FTSE 100: down -0.5%
• German DAX: down -0.9%
• French CAC 40: down -0.6%
• FTSE MIB: down -0.5%
• Spain’s IBEX: down -0.8%

France’s embassy in Iran has advised all of its citizens to stay away from any public gatherings in Iran, according to Reuters.

But warnings are extending beyond Iran, with the US embassy in Baghdad urging citizens to leave Iraq immediately, AFP reports: