Mark Rutte, the Dutch prime minister, has told Sky News that he thinks the chances of the UK and the EU agreeing a trade deal in 2020 are just 50/50. In a short interview in Davos, when asked if he was confident about there being a deal this year, he replied:

50/50. Because a year is not very long, and if the UK is really not willing to ask for an extension, then we run a risk that we might get to a cliff edge again.

By “cliff edge”, he means what would effectively be a no-deal Brexit at the end of 2020 (although a 2020 no deal would be different from a 2019 no deal, because the withdrawal agreement would be passed, which means the rights of EU nationals would be guaranteed, and the arrangement for Northern Ireland to remain effectively in the single market would be in place).

This is from Sky’s economics editor, Ed Conway.

Boris Johnson insists he is almost certain to get a trade deal, but the EU is more open about the risk of what it calls a “cliff edge” at the end of this year. It has recently published a whole series of briefing slides about the forthcoming trade talks, and this is from one set of slides (pdf) covering trade.

Shortly after the granting of royal assent to the Brexit bill was announced, the SNP leader at Westminster, Ian Blackford, used a point of order to say that the country was now facing a “constitutional crisis”. He told MPs:

Something quite momentous has taken place with this royal assent. This is absolutely unprecedented and I say to the house that this is a constitutional crisis.

We are faced with a situation which is completely unprecedented, when the government in Edinburgh, in Belfast and in Cardiff has not given consent to this act of parliament. And this completely contravenes the devolution settlement that made it clear that the consent of the devolved administrations had to be given in bills of parliament to become acts of parliament that involve the devolved administrations.

I full respect that those that voted for the Conservative party in England have got what they wanted. But the fact remains that the people of Scotland were told in 2014 that, if we stayed in the UK, our rights as EU citizens would be respected. And moreover we were told that we were to lead the United Kingdom, that this was a family of nations, our rights would be respected. And we find today that our parliament has been ignored, our government has been ignored, and against the express wishes of the people of Scotland that voted in the referendum, and reaffirmed the right of the people of Scotland to determine their own destiny, that that has been ignored.

Blackford was referring to the fact that, under the so-called Sewel convention, the UK government is not supposed to legislate on matters covered by the devolved administrations without the devolved legislatures granting legislative consent. The EU (Withdrawal Agreement) Act does contain provisions affecting devolved matters. Yet the Scottish parliament, the Welsh assembly and the Northern Ireland assembly have all recently voted to refuse it legislative consent.

In the article 50 case the supreme court ruled that the Sewel convention was a political convention, and not one that could be enforced by law. The wording includes an opt-out - it says Westminster will “not normally legislate with regard to devolved matters without the consent” of the devolved legislatures - and there is precedent for Westminster passing legislation after one of the devolved administrations refused consent. The votes in Edinburgh, Belfast and Cardiff cannot stop Brexit.

But there is no precedent for a major piece of legislation being passed after all three devolved legislatures refused to grant it legislative consent.

Blackford’s reference to a “constitutional crisis” may sound a touch hyperbolic. If there is a crisis, most MPs in London this afternoon don’t seem to have noticed. But a crisis does not always have to be immediate, and Blackford is right to say that Brexit has unleashed forces that could have a profound impact on the union.

John Bercow, the former Commons Speaker, has issued a fresh statement in response to the report that Lord Lisvane, the former clerk of the Commons, has submitted a formal complaint about him alleging bullying. (See 9.39am.)

In it he categorically denies ever bullying anyone. He says:

I have seen in the media that Lord Lisvane is formally complaining that I bullied staff. For the record, I categorically deny that I have ever bullied anyone, anywhere at any time.

According to the Press Association, in the statement Bercow says Lisvane had “ample opportunity” to raise concerns about Bercow’s conduct with him and that Lisvane had “a duty of care to all House staff”.

Therefore, he had not merely a right but a responsibility to act if he thought that he witnessed misconduct.

The simple fact is that he did not at any time do so. Even though he frequently disagreed with me on a wide range of issues, he did not once complain to me and neither did any other official on his behalf.

In the statement Bercow argues that he is entitled to a peerage, because it is conventional for retiring Speakers to go to the Lords, and he criticises No 10 for not giving him one. He says:

[Since retiring it has] become increasingly obvious that the government has no intention of honouring the centuries-old convention that a departing speaker is promptly elevated to the House of Lords. Indeed, it has been suggested to me that the government actively seeks to block any other attempt to nominate me for membership of the upper House.

The Brexit bill has received royal assent. It is now an act of parliament, the EU (Withdrawal Agreement) Act.

Jacob Rees-Mogg, the leader of the Commons (and arch-Brexiter), announced it on Twitter.

Sajid Javid, the chancellor, is speaking at a CBI lunch in Davos. He has just sought to reassure business that the UK won’t abandon all EU regulations after Brexit, saying:

We won’t diverge just for the sake of it.

There is full coverage of the speech on my colleague Graeme Wearden’s Davos live blog.

In the Commons Matt Hancock, the health secretary, is making a statement about the coronavirus outbreak.

He says there have been 571 cases, and 17 reported fatalities.

Most cases of this new virus have been non-fatal, he says. But some cases have been fatal.

There are no cases of this new infection in the UK so far, he says.

He says the government is closely monitoring the situation.

Since yesterday health officials have been monitoring people on flights from Wuhan. And people on flights from China are receiving information about this, he says.

He says the chief medical officer has changed the risk level to the UK from very low to low.

But the UK is prepared to deal with any outbreak, he says.

He says travel advice has been updated, and the government is now advising against all but essential travel to Wuhan.

In her Sky News interview this morning Andrea Leadsom, the business secretary, hinted that the government is minded to allow the Chinese firm Huawei to play a role in constructing the UK’s 5G network. The US government has been strongly urging London not to use Huawei, claiming that it poses a security risk and threatening to limit intelligence cooperation if Huawei does get the go-ahead.

Leadsom said the government would take a decision on this soon. But, as Reuters reports, she highlighted difficulties with not using Huawei. She said:

There are other providers but they are limited. Ideally there would be more providers of infrastructure similar to the work that Huawei does but the UK is looking very carefully at this issue and we will be making a final decision soon.

It is an ongoing process and there are all sorts of factors to take into consideration, like the availability of other providers, like the work that Huawei has already done in the United Kingdom, so these discussions are ongoing.

But she also said she shared concerns about protecting national security.

Sajid Javid, the chancellor, has launched a hunt for someone to replace longstanding Office for Budget Responsibility chairman Robert Chote when his term at the fiscal watchdog comes to an end in October. As PA Media reports, Chote has headed up the independent economic forecaster since it was launched in 2010, having served the maximum two five-year terms. The chancellor said Chote had led the OBR with “intelligence, independence and integrity”.

In a statement Javid said:

Finding the right candidate to lead the OBR and build on the significant progress of the last 10 years is vital for maintaining the credibility of the UK’s fiscal framework and our status as a world leader in fiscal transparency.

I look forward to working with Robert Chote to deliver my budget on March 11 before he finishes his second term as chair.

The Treasury said the recruitment process would look at the “broadest possible pool of applicants” and is open to applications until 20 February.

Here is the full reply from Liz Truss, the international trade secretary, when she was asked in the Commons a few minutes ago by the Labour MP Jonathan Reynolds if the government would back down in the face of American pressure over its plans for a digital services tax. (See 9.55am.) She told him:

Let me be absolutely clear. UK tax policy is a matter for the UK chancellor. It’s not a matter for the US, it’s not a matter for the EU, it’s not a matter for anybody else, and we will make the decisions that are right for Britain, whether it is on our regulatory standards, whether it’s on our tax policy, or whether it is on anything else.

Andrea Leadsom, the business secretary, was giving interviews this morning to promote the announcement that the government is ensuring that parents who suffer the loss of a child under the age of 18 will be entitled to two weeks of statutory paid leave from work. Our story on the announcement is here.

According to the Times (paywall), Lord Lisvane, the former clerk of the Commons, has submitted a complaint to the parliamentary commissioner standards about alleged bullying by John Bercow when he was Speaker. Other officials have complained about Bercow’s treatment of staff in the past, but Lisvane is the most senior official to have submitted a formal complaint, the paper says.

In a statement to the Times Bercow, who has repeatedly denied claims that he bullied officials, said:

During the five years that we worked together, Lord Lisvane had ample opportunity to raise any accusations of bullying with me. At no stage did he do so, even though he became clerk of the House - the most senior official. The timing of this intervention is curious.

The last sentence is a reference to reports that Bercow is being nominated for a peerage. It is normal for a former Speaker to be offered a peerage, but there have been reports that Bercow’s nomination for one comes from Jeremy Corbyn, in the dissolution honours list, because Boris Johnson is reluctant to make the nomination himself.

In an interview on Sky News this morning the business secretary Andrea Leadsom, who had an acrimonious relationship with Bercow herself when she was leader of the Commons (she says he once called her a “stupid woman” in the chamber), suggested that a bullying complaint could stop Bercow getting a peerage. She said:

In the event that there are genuine, upheld complaints about any persons that should have an impact on whether they are found suitable for the House of Lords.

Yesterday the government’s EU (withdrawal agreement) bill, the legislation that will take the UK out of the EU next week, cleared parliament. This was a foregone conclusion ever since Boris Johnson won the general election with a near-landslide majority and, in a curious paradox, the Brexit deal that paralysed parliament for more than two years, and brought down a PM, barely made the news as it finally got over its last parliamentary hurdle. In response, Johnson put out this statement:

Parliament has passed the withdrawal agreement bill, meaning we will leave the EU on 31 January and move forwards as one United Kingdom.

At times it felt like we would never cross the Brexit finish line, but we’ve done it.

Now we can put the rancour and division of the past three years behind us and focus on delivering a bright, exciting future – with better hospitals and schools, safer streets and opportunity spread to every corner of our country.

But ‘crossing the finishing line’ may be a tad optimistic, given that the government still has not resolved what its final trade relationship with the EU will look like, and last night a senior EU official used a speech in London to make this very point. Stefaan De Rynck, the senior adviser to Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, said what came next would be “more complicated” and that a “dose of realism” was needed. As Jack Blanchard reports in his London Playbook briefing for Politico Europe, De Rynck said:

There should be no misunderstanding of the fact that the next phase will be more complicated to negotiate than the withdrawal agreement.

The construction of the text for the withdrawal agreement wasn’t always easy — but compared to the construction of the text for the future relationship agreement, we are talking about two different kinds of exercises. The limitation of time must lead to some dose of realism on what can be achieved.

I will be filing more on De Rynck’s speech shortly.

We will hear more on Brexit in the Commons later, because Liz Truss and Jacob Rees-Mogg are both taking questions. Otherwise it looks like a quiet day.

Here is the agenda for the day.

9.30am: Liz Truss, the international trade secretary, takes questions in the Commons.

After 10.30am: Jacob Rees-Mogg, the leader of the Commons, takes questions in the Commons on next week’s business.

Lunchtime: Boris Johnson meets Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe’s husband, Richard Ratcliffe, in Downing Street.

As usual, I will be covering breaking political news as it happens, as well as bringing you the best reaction, comment and analysis from the web. I plan to post a summary when I wrap up.

You can read all the latest Guardian politics articles here. Here is the Politico Europe roundup of this morning’s political news. And here is the PoliticsHome list of today’s top 10 must-reads.

If you want to follow me or contact me on Twitter, I’m on @AndrewSparrow.

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