That’s a wrap. hustings has now finished.

Robert Peston concluded the event by asking people in the room to put their hands up if they were Labour supporters and then put their hands up if they actually voted Labour in the last election. Several hands went down.

They were then asked if they would vote Labour in the next election following tonight’s hustings and most of the hands shot back up.

It was clear from the cheers and applause in the audience following each of Lisa Nandy’s answers that she was the most popular candidate in the room.

She has also received a lot of praise on Twitter.

A member of the audience has asked whether the candidates would consider themselves to be Zionists.

“I believe in the state of Israel so therefore I am a Zionist,” Emily Thornberry says.

Keir Starmer says he believes in a two-state solution and says he supports and sympathises with zionists but wouldn’t describe himself as one.

Lisa Nandy says: “I believe Jewish people have a right to national self-determination. That makes me a Zionist.”

She says she “hates the way the word has been weaponised” and goes on to say she also believes in a two-state solution.

Rebecca Long-Bailey is last to answer. “I also agree with a secure Israel and I also agree with a two-state solution.”

She says she guesses it does make her a Zionist because she believes Israel should have self-determination.

The candidates are talking about how they will stand up to Boris Johnson.

Emily Thornberry says: “The idea that the Tory party is the party of the working man is nonsense”.

She says she is the one who can stand up to Boris Johnson’s “tosh” because of all her experience at the despatch box.

“That’s why I have out myself forward for what is frankly the worst job in the world which is the Labour party leader in opposition,” she says to laughs.

The candidates have been asked about how to deal with the rise of populism.

Lisa Nandy says the questioning of the Panorama whistleblowers was a typical populist tactic and there is populism at “every level of the Labour Party”.

“This is not something that infects the right alone. This is something that infects the left as well,” she says.

Rebecca Long-Bailey says Labour should apologise for how it reacted to the BBC’s Panorama documentary about bullying and antisemitism.

Asked whether Luciana Berger would be welcomed back into the Labour party, she says what happened to Berger was “absolutely shocking”.

“We need to recognise that and start to build bridges and rebuild trust,” she says.

Pressed as to whether Berger would be welcomed back, Nandy says she would.

On the “culture of bullying”, Emily Thornberry says there needs to be a “root and branch” change at Labour headquarters.

Lisa Nandy says she considered her position in the Labour party over antisemitism.

She says you can stay in the cabinet and try privately to change things but if nothing changes still, you have to make a stand.

Nandy, who seems to have the support of most in the room and has received several loud applauses, talks about being accused of disloyalty for speaking out about antisemitism.

She says: “What is more disloyal than not standing up for our Labour values?”

I’m now watching the Jewish Labour Movement hustings.

The candidates in the Labour leadership race are now answering questions from ITV’s Robert Peston.

To recap, the ministers who lost their seats around the cabinet table today include:

• Sajid Javid resigned as chancellor.
• Julian Smith was sacked as Northern Ireland secretary.
• Andrea Leadsom was sacked as business secretary.
• Theresa Villiers lost her job as environment secretary.
• Geoffrey Cox was sacked as attorney general.
• Esther McVey lost her job as a housing minister attending cabinet.

Here’s a a visual representation of who’s up and who’s down:

A few more positions have been filled. Zac Goldsmith will stay on as a minister for the environment and international development, but he will also be minister for the Foreign Office as well.

Nigel Adams has also become a joint minister for the Foreign Office and international development, while Liz Sugg will continue in her role as a joint parliamentary under secretary at international development while also taking up the same position in the Foreign Office.

Kit Malthouse will stay as a Home Office minister, and Conor Burns will remain an international trade minister.

Angela Rayner, the shadow education secretary, has responded to analysis by the Sutton Trusts which has found that 62% of the new cabinet attended independent schools.

She said:

“It is now clear that Boris Johnson is running a government of the few, by the few, for the few.

It’s no surprise that the Tories have failed to honour their pledge to rethink the tax loopholes that benefit private schools, and Johnson instead plans yet another giveaway for the super-rich instead.

The next Labour government will invest in all schools, and provide a free healthy meal for all primary school pupils by ending the VAT tax break for private schools.”

Here’s a breakdown of who makes up the cabinet.

The Sutton Trust has analysed the education background of Boris Johnson’s new cabinet.

It has found that 62% attended independent schools, a very small decrease from Johnson’s previous cabinet (64%) while 31% of the new cabinet went through a “pipeline” from fee-paying schools to Oxbridge.

There has been a very slight increase in the proportion educated at comprehensives, from 27% in 2019, to 31% today.

This proportion of alumni of independent schools is more than twice that of Theresa May’s 2016 cabinet (30%), slightly more than Cameron’s 2015 cabinet (50%) and the same as the 2010 coalition cabinet (62%).

Sir Peter Lampl, the founder and chairman of the Sutton Trust, said:

December’s election led to a seismic shift in the political landscape. The falling of the red wall means Conservative MPs now represent a much more diverse range of constituencies than before, with constituents from many different socio-economic backgrounds.

“Yet in terms of educational background, the make-up of Johnson’s cabinet is still over 60% from independent schools. Today’s findings underline how unevenly spread the opportunities are to enter the elites and this is something Boris Johnson must address.”

Housing may have had 10 ministers in 10 years but higher education is doing even worse: Chris Skidmore’s sacking means the sector will have had eight universities ministers in the six years since David Willetts left in 2014.

Four of those appointments are two of the same people – Jo Johnson was replaced by Sam Gyimah in January 2018, with Skidmore replacing Gyimah that November. But Johnson was back as minister in July 2019 before resigning in September, to be replaced by Skidmore.

For those keeping score, the sequence is: Willetts, Greg Clarke, Johnson, Gyimah, Skidmore, Johnson, Skidmore, and … a person not yet known.

The last woman in the role was Margaret Hodge in 2003, and David Lammy was the last non-Oxbridge-educated holder in 2010 (although he did go to Soas and Harvard).

James Brokenshire will return to government as a minister of state in the Home Office.

Jeremy Quin has been made a minister of state in the Ministry of Defence, and Helen Whately has been made minister of state in the Department of Health and Social Care.

Chloe Smith is promoted to minister of state in the Cabinet Office, and Robin Walker has been made a minister of state in the Northern Ireland office.

The Liberal Democrats have described Suella Braverman as “unfit to serve as attorney general”, after Johnson appointed her to the post.

Pointing to Braverman’s past comments about the role of the courts and human rights, Daisy Cooper, the justice spokesperson for the Lib Dems described her appointment as “the latest shocking step in Boris Johnson and Dominic Cummings’ assault on the rule of law”.

Braverman recently argued that “the concept of ‘fundamental’ human rights has been stretched beyond recognition” and that “the explosion of judicial review and judicial activism has led to a censoriousness and litigiousness in our society”.

Cooper said: “Liberal Democrats will not allow this dangerous, authoritarian Conservative government to undermine the rule of law and erode individual rights and freedoms.”

Suella Braverman, who was appointed attorney general earlier in the day, has released a statement about her new role.

She said:

“I am honoured to be appointed as attorney general for England and Wales and look forward to working with the many excellent government lawyers and officials.

“I want to thank my predecessor Geoffrey Cox QC MP for leaving me with such a strong record to build upon.

“One of my first priorities is to continue the government’s work in rebuilding confidence in our justice system, particularly with victims.”

Ten in ten years: that’s the churn rate for housing ministers after Boris Johnson fired Esther McVey on Thursday.

Starting with Grant Shapps in 2010, ministers to have solemnly promised to tackle the housing crisis before being promoted or sacked have included Mark Prisk, Kris Hopkins, Brandon Lewis, Gavin Barwell, Alok Sharma, Dominc Raab and Kit Malthouse.

McVey lasted little more than six months. It wasn’t much better under Labour, with Tony Blair and Gordon Brown appointing eight ministers in the noughties. And yet the state of housing in Britain is acknowledged across the political spectrum as one of the biggest social and economic challenges facing the country.

“A revolving door of housing ministers have not taken the time to get to grips with the long-term problems fuelling the housing emergency,” said Polly Neate, the chief executive of the housing charity Shelter, which reckons it takes any minister months to even start to grasp the lattice of issues behind the crisis.

How the planning system interacts with land values is dizzyingly complicated, rising homelessness and rough sleeping is politically explosive, and attempts to reform renting or home ownership quickly run into powerful vested interests.

Successive governments have also missed house building targets. Theresa May’s government pledged to built 300,000 new homes a year by the mid-2020s, but the public accounts committee warned last summer that this was likely to be missed. On average, only 177,000 homes have been built annually in England in the period 2005-06 to 2017-18.

“The ministerial merry-go-round isn’t the root cause of the Tories’ failure on housing, but it certainly doesn’t help,” said John Healey, the shadow housing secretary.

Mark Spencer remains chief whip.

And we’ve just published a comment piece from Polly Toynbee on the reshuffle in which her take on Boris Johnson’s job offer is, word for word, the same as Sajid Javid’s. (See 5.11pm.) It’s not often she and Javid agree, but she starts her column saying:

No self-respecting chancellor would accept such terms: that was Sajid Javid’s reason for resigning. So in Rishi Sunak we have an alarmingly obedient new chancellor ready to take the job on any terms. His advisers will be fused with those of No 10, his power base diminished, and his office under the control of Dominic Cummings, intimidator-in-chief. Sunak will struggle to shake off shadow chancellor John McDonnell’s charge that he is nothing but “a stooge”.

Here is another extract.

The message of this reshuffle is a nasty and dangerous one: absolute power resides in just one place, No 10. The Treasury, which strove to protect the nation’s finances against the worst damages of Brexit, is a diminished force – for now. Attempts to thwart Johnson’s reckless plans – whether branded super-bridges or Brexit vanity projects – will be overridden. If Whitehall joked that Javid was “chino” – chancellor in name only – his successor can expect even less respect.

And here is the full article.

Sajid Javid has spoken to the BBC. He said he could not accept the conditions attached to the offer for him to stay in post.

But he said Rishi Sunak had his full support.

I’ll post the full quotes in a moment.

Andrew Murrison, who has been a joint Foreign Office/Department for International Development minister, has announced that he is leaving the government. His tweet suggests he has been sacked, although he does not say so explicitly.

And Simon Hart remains as Welsh secretary.

Alister Jack is staying as Scottish secretary.

Here is Tom Kibasi’s take on the reshuffle for the Guardian.

And here is an extract.

The reality, however, is that [Rishi] Sunak is now merely [Dominic] Cummings’ deputy. With the most powerful economic policymaker now an unelected adviser, this could be the turning point for both economic strategy and for the long-fabled power of the Treasury. Unlike many in the Tory party, Cummings has no fetish for eliminating the deficit. He is not bound by the ideological straitjacket of Treasury thinking. And he cannot be criticised for lacking vision.

The government now talks of nationalisation, significant increases in public investment in research and development and infrastructure, and the introduction of wealth taxes. Margaret Thatcher famously described Tony Blair as her greatest legacy. If this new “national conservative” agenda succeeds, perhaps in time John McDonnell will say the same of Cummings.

Grant Shapps is staying as transport secretary, No 10 has announced.

In the House of Commons, the government whip Stuart Andrew is winding up the general debate taking place before the half-term adjournment. As the Press Association’s Richard Wheeler reports, he used a prop to make a reshuffle joke.

Here are two snippets about the new environment secretary, George Eustice.

The answer is almost certainly yes. Eustice was a Ukip candidate in the 1999 European elections.

These are from the journalist Ian Birrell, who has a profoundly disabled daughter.

The Labour MP Yvette Cooper has paid this tribute to Sajid Javid.

Robert Jenrick is staying as housing secretary.

Sky’s Ed Conway and Prospect’s Tom Clark have both posted very good Twitter threads about Sajid Javid’s resignation.

Conway’s starts here.

And here is one of his conclusions.

Clark’s start here.

And here is one of his conclusions.

This is from Nick Macpherson, a former head of the Treasury.

Gavin Williamson is staying as education secretary.

Suella Braverman may have been auditioning for her new role as attorney general when she asked this question at PMQs last week.

The terrorist incident last week reminds us that the rule of law remains a fundamental foundation of our democratic constitution, but the explosion of judicial review and judicial activism has led to a censoriousness and litigiousness in our society and has distorted questions that ought to remain exclusively political. How will my right honourable friend ensure that parliament remains the sovereign and legitimate source of law as we take back control?

The Daily Mail’s John Stevens has been looking at some past tweets from Anne-Marie Trevelyan, the new international development secretary.

David Gauke, the former justice secretary and former Treasury minister, told Radio 5 live’s Emma Barnett that he thought Rishi Sunak would turn out to have more authority as chancellor than some people are predicting. Gauke explained:

Having lost one chancellor, to lose another chancellor would be incredibly difficult, so Rishi Sunak is actually in quite a strong position now, and although there will be a lot of talk about him being Boris Johnson’s placeman, if he wants to assert himself you could argue that he is pretty well unsackable.

If I was Rishi I would be pretty determined to show that I was not a stooge, and demonstrate some independence pretty early on especially in his budget. Partly just for the credibility and economic policy for this country, in terms of the international markets, a chancellor who is seen as a stooge will face real difficulties.

You go back to the history of Margaret Thatcher after Nigel Lawson resigned and John Major came in, John Major who at the time was seen as being a bit of a stooge, but was in a much more powerful position because Margaret Thatcher realised she couldn’t afford to lose a second chancellor of the exchequer.

In a snap take on the reshuffle for the Financial Times (paywall), Robert Shrimsley says the loss of Sajid Javid will be damaging for the government. Here’s an extract.

There was simply no need for Boris Johnson to lose his chancellor of the exchequer. The fact that he has done so shows that the prime minister intends to brook no dissent and that No 10 is determined to keep control of financial policy.

Sajid Javid quit rather than be told he had to sack his aides and submit to Dominic Cummings, Mr Johnson’s chief strategist, taking control of financial policy via a joint team of advisers. At that point most prime ministers would have concluded that this was not a big enough issue over which to lose an already compliant chancellor. Mr Johnson decided otherwise. It is an astonishing decision; a chaotic, unnecessary and damaging outcome for the government ...

No sensible premier loses his chancellor by accident and while a politically weak neighbour seems attractive to a prime minister, there will be a cost. Good government often depends on senior ministers – and the chancellor in particular – being able to fight bad ideas. Mr Johnson’s cabinet has just seen the price of defiance.

From the BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg

These are from the Independent’s Ben Chu.

Matt Hancock is staying as health secretary.

The New Statesman’s Stephen Bush has written a very interesting blogpost on the possible long-term consequences of Sajid Javid’s resignation. “It is, in terms of the governance of the United Kingdom, probably the most significant development since the creation of the devolved parliaments in 1999,” he says.

Do read the whole thing, but here’s an extract.

Rishi Sunak, Javid’s replacement, is reported to have accepted the merger of staff across numbers 10 and 11 Downing Street.

It’s an illustration of British politics’ “unipolar moment”: as I wrote last week, Boris Johnson is more powerful now than any British prime minister. He is using his position to concentrate power within Downing Street in a way we have not seen before ...

How will it work out? From a political perspective, the Conservatives will surely benefit from what will be an unprecedented degree of alignment and coherence between the head of government and the government’s finance chief. But from a policy perspective, the consequences are unknowable. This is a structure that, had it been in Tony Blair’s hands in 1997, might have seen the United Kingdom join the euro.

Sam McBride, the political editor of the News Letter in Belfast, has a good take on the achievements of Julian Smith as Northern Ireland secretary. He has posted a link to it here.

From the Independent’s Tom Peck

From the Spectator’s James Forsyth

From the Independent’s Ashley Cowburn

Matt Hancock worked for the Bank of England before he became an MP and, being unusually ambitious even by Westminster standards, he would have loved to have been appointed chancellor.

If you have got a spare half an hour and you’re interested in Rishi Sunak, this is well worth listening to – his recent interview with the BBC’s Nick Robinson for the Political Thinking podcast. Among other attributes, Sunak is an obsessive Star Wars fan, and he performed very well in Robinson’s Star Wars quiz.

From the Telegraph’s Gordon Rayner

Robert Buckland is staying as justice secretary, as we expected.

From the Times’ political editor, Francis Elliott

Downing Street has now started tweeting about the reshuffle, starting with confirmation that Dominic Raab, Michael Gove and Priti Patel are all staying in post.

It is not clear yet whether Gove will get any additional responsibilities as part of Cabinet Office portfolio.

Sajid Javid now joins the long list of people who have been let down by Boris Johnson. During the general election, in a Q&A after a speech to the CBI, Johnson committed to keeping Javid as his chancellor after the election. Javid was doing an excellent job, he said. No other cabinet minister received a job security guarantee of this kind during the campaign.

According to Sky News, Rishi Sunak, the chief secretary to the Treasury, is expected to be appointed chancellor.

And there will be a joint pool of advisers serving No 10 and No 11, Sky reports.

Sajid Javid, the chancellor, reportedly resigned because the PM insisted that he sack his advisers, and replace them with officials chosen by Number 10.

Such a move would amount to a repeat of what happened last year, when one of Javid’s advisers was sacked without his approval by Dominic Cummings, Boris Johnson’s chief adviser. Here is our story from the time.

From the BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg

From the Times’ Steven Swinford

From the journalist Michael Crick, commenting on the departure of Chris Skidmore (see 9.37am)

Here is Alok Sharma, the international development secretary, arriving at No 10 a few minutes ago. Government sources were briefing last night that he is getting a promotion.

From the BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg

Brandon Lewis is currently security minister. But Tory sources were hinting earlier this week that he would be penalised because of his decision, when he was Conservative chairman, to hold an investigation into Johnson’s comment about women in Islamic dress looking like “letterboxes” (an inquiry that saw him subsequently cleared of being Islamophobic). It has also been claimed that he fell out with Carrie Symonds, the PM’s partner, when he was chairman and she was head of the press office at CCHQ.

It is not unusual for prime minister’s to treat the Northern Ireland Office as a ministerial version of the doghouse - somewhere to send people deemed out of favour. But, for obvious reasons, treating the post in this manner infuriates politicians from all parties at Stormont.

Sky’s Tamara Cohen claims that Julian Smith was sacked partly for saying last year that a no-deal Brexit would be “very, very bad” for Northern Ireland.

In Northern Ireland at the time Smith’s comment was not seen as a gaffe, but as a statement of the obvious.

Michael Gove, the Cabinet Office minister, has just gone into No 10.

Here is Arlene Foster, the DUP leader, on the sacking of Julian Smith.

And here is an extract from an article by Gerry Moriary, the Irish Times’ northern editor, on Smith’s departure.

Not only was he viewed as pivotal in achieving the deal to restore the northern executive and assembly but he was seen as the first secretary of state in several years who adopted a proactive and muscular attitude in getting things done.

This included ensuring that the victims of historical institutional abuse would get the compensation that they had been left waiting for because of the previous political paralysis.

And here is the Telegraph’s Gordon Rayner on the reshuffle.

Here is the Sun’s Tom Newton Dunn on a theme of the reshuffle.

Newton Dunn has also been applying some textual analysis to the Geoffrey Cox resignation letter.

Priti Patel, the home secretary, has just gone into No 10. Dominic Raab, the foreign secretary, went in earlier.

Both are expected to keep their jobs, and so it is not entirely clear why they are being called in. Maybe No 10 has just choreographed the meetings to provide some footage for the broadcasters.

Here is Raab arriving at the Foreign Office earlier - without a tie.

He smartened up later for his visit to No 10.

Geoffrey Cox has posted his resignation letter on Twitter.

“Leaving the government at the PM’s request” is a polite way of confirming that he has been sacked.

As Gavin Freeguard points out at the Institute for Government’s reshuffle live blog (a bit like this, but with fewer jokes, and more graphs), Esther McVey’s sacking means that we will now be onto our 10th housing minister since 2010.

As the Institute for Government explained in a recent report, rapid ministerial turnover is a problem for British government. The average cabinet minster gets moved every two years, almost as often as the average football manager. Other countries leave ministers in post for longer, which increases the chances that they a) might actually learn something about the problems they are addressing and b) stay long enough to see through any changes.

Simon Coveney, Ireland’s foreign minister and deputy PM, has paid tribute to Julian Smith.

Attorney general’s questions has just started in the Commons. Michael Ellis, the solicitor general, is taking questions. There is no sign of Geoffrey Cox.

The Sun’s Tom Newton Dunn says Geoffrey Cox definitely was sacked as attorney general this morning.

Even without an attorney general, attorney general question’s can still go ahead. Michael Ellis, the solicitor general, may just take all the questions.

From the Telegraph’s Camilla Tominey

Here is the full statement that Colum Eastwood, the SDLP leader, has released about the sacking of Julian Smith. Eastwood said:

It defies belief that after the successful restoration of power sharing following a three-year collapse, Julian Smith’s reward is a cabinet office P45. It tells you all you need to know about Boris Johnson’s attitude to the north that he would sack the most successful secretary of state in a decade. He is at best indifferent.

I want to place on record my sincere thanks to Julian for the work he’s done over the last few months. His change in approach was central to breaking the logjam at Stormont. I found him to be a secretary of state genuinely committed to acting in the interests of devolution rather than imposing a cabinet agenda on this place. And I remain grateful for the work he undertook with me to secure additional resource for university expansion in Derry.

The next secretary of state must be committed to the substance of Julian Smith’s commitments to the north and should learn a lot from his style of engagement.

One staffer at the Northern Ireland Office in Belfast said colleagues had been crossing fingers - literally - for Smith to be kept on as secretary of state, saying he was the most engaged, competent boss they had had in a long time, I’m told.

It looks as though Boris Johnson may have finished the cabinet sackings phase of this reshuffle. If he is heading back to No 10 from his office in the Commons, that means he has finished the face-to-face meetings with ministers who are getting the chop.

As explained earlier (see 8.50am), the venue for the ‘good news’ job interviews is Downing Street.

And here are two alternative views on the Julian Smith sacking.

From Christopher Montgomery, a former DUP chief of staff

From the Spectator’s James Forsyth

From the BBC’s political editor Laura Kuenssberg

Here is some reaction to Julian Smith’s sacking from Northern Ireland politicians.

From Colum Eastwood MP, the SDLP leader

From Christopher Stalford, a DUP member of the Northern Ireland assembly

Here is some comment on Julian Smith’s sacking as Northern Ireland secretary from Ireland specialists.

From the BBC’s Jayne McCormack

From Sky’s David Blevins

From Sky’s Stephen Murphy

From OpenDemocracy’s Peter Geoghegan

And this is from Peter Foster, the Telegraph’s Europe editor. He posted it before Smith’s sacking was confirmed, but it still applies.

From my colleague Kate Proctor

Esther McVey, the housing minister, is going in to see the PM, the Sun’s Matt Dathan reports.

Geoffrey Cox has refused to comment on what happened when he met the PM, reports the Telegraph’s Camilla Tominey. That sounds like confirmation he has been sacked.

If Cox is sounding chipper, that may be because he is looking forward to resuming work as a QC. He was the best-paid MP in parliament before he entered government, because of all the legal work he managed to combine with his Commons duties, and although he enjoyed being a minister, it does not seem to have been a lifelong ambition. He was a backbencher for 13 years before Theresa May’s surprise decision to make him attorney general in 2018, partly because she needed a Brexiter in that role.

UPDATE: I’ve amended the post above because it said Cox was made attorney general after he made the speech introducing May at the Tory conference in 2018. But he had already been appointed at that point.

Geoffrey Cox seems to have just finished a meeting with the PM, the Times’ Steven Swinford reports. We assume Cox is no longer attorney general.

Theresa Villiers, the environment secretary, has just gone in to see the PM, Sky’s Joe Pike reports.

From the BBC’s Ross Hawkins

Yesterday, speaking at an Institute for Government event, Geoffrey Cox said he would like to stay as attorney general. But he adopted the tone of someone who was not assuming that he would remain in his job, and managed what might have been a valedictory swipe at Dominic Cummings, the PM’s chief adviser.

Cox may assume that Cummings has been briefing against him. A government source told the Daily Mail recently that Cox was “not a team player”. The source went on:

It’s all very well being able to recite Keats but the government needs to come together if we’re going to deliver on this election.

Cox is a serious lover of poetry, and can recite large chunks of verse from memory.

From the BBC’s Gareth Gordon

And this is from a bit earlier.

Andrea Leadsom, the business secretary, was not in a mood to talk when she arrived at the Commons, it seems.

From Sky’s Aubrey Allegretti

This is from the BBC’s Jayne McCormack, quoting the Ulster Unionist Northern Ireland assembly member Doug Beattie on Julian Smith. (See 8.35am.)

This chart, from the blogger Peter Donaghy, probably won’t be much consolation to Smith if he does get sacked.

Jacob Rees-Mogg, the leader of the Commons, has also been seen arriving at the Commons – but he has to be here anyway, because he has business questions.

It is unusual to hold a reshuffle on a Thursday, when the Commons starts sitting at 9.30am and government ministers are scheduled to take questions. That means this morning MPs are expecting to hear from culture ministers at 9.30am (although not the culture secretary, Nicky Morgan, who sits in the House of Lords, and is standing down at this reshuffle), the attorney general at 10.10am (Geoffrey Cox, as of now, although he is expected to be sacked) and Rees-Mogg at 10.30am, when he takes questions on the Commons business statement.

Andrea Leadsom, the business secretary, has arrived at the Commons, the Telegraph’s Camilla Tominey reports.

There is speculation that she will be replaced by the international development secretary Alok Sharma, who will definitely get a promotion, government sources were saying last night.

In the Times (paywall) this morning Francis Elliott and Steven Swinford have more on why Julian Smith may be sacked as Northern Ireland secretary. They report:

The Northern Ireland secretary Julian Smith was fighting for his future last night as he looked poised to be one of the biggest casualties of Boris Johnson’s cabinet reshuffle.

He had been considered safe after securing a power-sharing deal at Stormont. However, Mr Johnson was said to have felt “blindsided” by the deal, which includes an investigation into alleged crimes by British soldiers in the Troubles. “There is concern about the way he’s been operating,” a senior government source said.

The Times understands that the cabinet was fully briefed on the deal before it was agreed, including on aspects concerning historic investigations.

From the Sun’s Tom Newton Dunn

Good morning. I’m Andrew Sparrow, taking over from Matthew Weaver.

We were told that Boris Johnson was going to start the reshuffle at 8am, with cabinet sackings. Prime ministers often like to hold these meetings in their office in the House of Commons because it means ministers can come and go (as ex-ministers) without having to suffer the Downing Street “walk of shame”. The public cannot access the area of the Commons where cabinet ministers have their offices, and even lobby journalists based in the building are not meant to lurk in the corridor outside.

The promotions will come later, with ministers invited to meet Johnson in No 10.

Downing Street often announces appointments as they happen. But it does not announce sackings as they happen. We learn about those either when the ministers involved tell someone, or when the final cabinet list gets published at the end of the day.

And it looks as if Johnson is now in his Commons office. The Times’ sketchwriter Quentin Letts saw his convoy arrive at parliament a few minutes ago.

Meanwhile, Johnson is being urged to “fess up” over who paid for his £15,000 luxury Caribbean holiday after a scoop in the Daily Mail that a Tory donor denied funding the trip. Here’s PA Media’s follow-up:

Labour has warned the prime minister that he must announce who stumped up the money for the getaway or else face a parliamentary investigation.

The PM and girlfriend Carrie Symonds accepted accommodation for a private holiday in St Vincent and the Grenadines as a post-election victory escape.

Johnson’s entry in the Commons’ register of members’ interests recorded that the trip was paid for by Carphone Warehouse co-founder David Ross.

But multi-millionaire businessman Ross told the Daily Mail he helped put the Conservative party leader in touch with companies providing accommodation, but denied fronting up the money or the villa.

Labour has called for the PM to provide answers over the trip or else face a parliamentary inquiry.

“Boris Johnson must come clean about who has paid for his luxury trip,” said Jon Trickett, the party’s shadow cabinet office minister.

In a declaration published on Wednesday, Johnson announced in the MPs’ register that he had accepted “accommodation for a private holiday for my partner and me, value 15,000”.

The private holiday lasted from 26 December to 5 January, according to the entry in the register, and names Mr Ross as the financial provider.

But Ross told the Mail the former London mayor had asked him for help finding accommodation on the island Mustique, where he and his girlfriend reportedly stayed, but that he had not provided the villa.

A spokesman for the Grimsby-born businessman, reportedly worth more than £650m, told the newspaper:

“Boris Johnson did not stay in David Ross’s house.

“Boris wanted some help to find somewhere in Mustique, David called the company who run all the villas and somebody had dropped out.

“So Boris got the use of a villa that was worth £15,000, but David Ross did not pay any monies whatsoever for this.”

The Guardian report is here:

Politico’s Jack Blanchard provides a handy a reshuffle timetable:

A succession of brutal ministerial sackings will begin in the PM’s parliamentary office at 8am as Johnson looks to clear out the “dead wood” (h/t a No. 10 official) and refresh his top team. Once the messy part is out of the way, Johnson will turn his attention to the jollier business of handing out jobs to his favourite MPs. Expect to see a succession of rising stars proceeding down Downing Street with beaming smiles from about 10am. The new cabinet should be in place soon after lunchtime, at which point Johnson will turn his attention to reshuffling the junior ranks. It’s going to be a hell of a day.

And an even more helpful summary of what he is expecting (note the use of the words ‘likely’, ‘probably’ and ‘in the balance’):

Nicky Morgan is definitely out at DCMS, with Oliver Dowden tipped to replace her.

Alok Sharma is definitely promoted from DfID, with Anne-Marie Trevelyan tipped to replace him.

Geoffrey Cox is almost definitely out as attorney general, with Lucy Frazer tipped to replace him.

Theresa Villiers is very likely out at DEFRA, with Steve Barclay, George Eustice and Mark Spencer among those tipped to replace her.

Andrea Leadsom is very likely out at BEIS, with Alok Sharma tipped to replace her.

Julian Smith is seemingly in the balance at the Northern Ireland Office following this morning’s reports in the Times.

Thérèse Coffey is also in the balance, but probably staying at DWP.

Ben Wallace is probably staying at the MoD, despite heavy briefing against him.

Jacob Rees-Mogg is probably staying as leader of the Commons, after going into hiding since November.

Mark Spencer is very likely staying as chief whip, though has been angling for the environment job of late.

Liz Truss is almost definitely staying in the Cabinet, although it’s unclear if she remains at DIT.

The high-profile Eurosceptic MP Steve Baker, who last year rejected a job on Johnson’s frontbench but has since signalled that he would like to be trade secretary, has posted a cryptic tweet featuring a video of a squirrel slipping on a greasy pole.

When Benjamin Disraeli became prime minister in 1868 he said: “I have climbed to the top of the greasy pole.”

The BBC’s Chris Mason reminds us of the diversity makeup of Johnson’s current cabinet compared with Theresa May’s last cabinet.

Welcome to a slightly earlier politics live blog to cover the buildup to the reshuffle.

Boris Johnson has shied away from a major overall of his top team and a rationalisation of Whitehall as championed by his key adviser Dominic Cummings.

Instead the reshuffle will be “promote a generation of talent” aimed at preparing the Tories for the future.

Those whose jobs are widely believed to be under threat include the business secretary, Andrea Leadsom, the environment secretary, Theresa Villiers, and the attorney general, Geoffrey Cox.

But Sajid Javid, who has clashed with Cummings, appears safe, with Rishi Sunak also left in place as chief secretary of the Treasury.

It is in the lower ranks of the government where the biggest changes are expected as the prime minister seeks to bring in more female MPs to ministerial roles. Johnson wants to give experience to a range of women who could be promoted to the cabinet in future reshuffles.

Female MPs in line for promotion include defence minister Anne-Marie Trevelyan, former Brexit minister Suella Braverman and Gillian Keegan.

Alok Sharma is expected to be promoted from his current cabinet post at international development, while the paymaster general Oliver Dowden – who attends cabinet – is also in line for a bigger job.

A No 10 source said:

The prime minister wants this reshuffle to set the foundations for government now and in the future. “He wants to promote a generation of talent that will be promoted further in the coming years.

“He will reward those MPs who have worked hard to deliver on this government’s priorities to level up the whole country and deliver the change people voted for last year.

Senior ministers including the chancellor, Sajid Javid, the home secretary, Priti Patel, and the foreign secretary, Dominic Raab, are expected to remain in place while Downing Street has confirmed that Grant Shapps will stay on as transport secretary.

The reshuffle is expect to begin at around 8am, by which time Andrew Sparrow will be here with all the details.