Graeme Wearden and Dominic Rushe 

Wall Street suffers worst day since 1987 as recession fears grow – business live

Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news, as shares fall sharply again across the globe
  
  

A price screen display is seen above the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.
A price screen display is seen above the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. Photograph: Lucas Jackson/Reuters

Summary: market mayhem

We are wrapping up today’s business blog. What a day.

The business blog will be back tomorrow. In the meantime you can follow our live updates here:

Oz down under

Stock markets open in Australia shortly and it looks likely there will be another sell off after today’s rout in the US and Europe. Australia has avoided recession for three decades but Covid 19 could end that run.

You can follow the latest from Australia here:

Updated

McDonalds closes golden arches

It’s Big Mac to go for the foreseeable future. The burger chain has become the latest fast food merchant to announce it is closing all seating areas, effective at the close of business today.

Franchisees are “strongly encouraged to adopt similar operations procedures.”

Starbucks, Shake Shack and others have already announced they are moving to take out only until the situation is under control.

Peter Tuchman, Wall Street veteran - and the most famous face at the New York Stock Exchange - sums up how traders have felt today.

Boeing’s credit rating cut

More bad news for Boeing, its credit rating has been cut by S&P.

The company had been hit hard after the 737 Max tragedies exposed a “culture of concealment” at the company. Now the global collapse of the airline industry had dealt it another blow.

The aerospace giant, the US’s largest manufacturer, now has an S&P bond rating of BBB - one step above junk status. That comes after a 24% drop in its share price today.

Netflix and no chill

Just to show you the breadth of today’s Wall Street sell off, Netflix is down too.

The bureau of labor statistics, which compiles the US’s monthly jobs figures, will conduct its survey this week. The US is currently enjoying the longest streak in jobs growth in its history so the numbers, out April 3, will be very closely watched.

We are already seeing hiring freezes, especially in travel and leisure, but as the virus starts to hit the manufacturing supply chain, job growth will inevitably stall.

New York’s manufacturing index has already fallen sharply.

PriceWaterhouseCoopers is polling chief financial officers on Covid-19. The accountant put out the first of a bi-weekly series of polls today and it’s a bit mixed.

  • 54% see a potential for significant impact to their business operations, and it is “causing us great concern”
  • 80% see a potential for a global recession

PwC expect those numbers to shift a lot in the next few weeks as the picture is still so unclear.

Summary: Wall Street tumbles on another bad day

Time for a quick recap.

Wall Street has suffered its biggest drop since the coronavirus crisis began, as global markets suffered another day of very hefty losses.

Heavy selling sent the S%P 500 plunging by 12%, to its lowest level since December 2018, as investors lost faith that politicians and central bankers can prevent a deep recession.

The Dow Jones industrial average slumped by 13% (losing almost 3,000 points), in its second-worse points decline ever.

Asia-Pacific markets could pick up the selling baton, with Australia’s S&P ASX index being called down 4% in pre-market trading.

The selloff came as President Donald Trump conceded that America’s economy could be falling into recession, and suggested Covid-19 could not be under control until August.

It also followed another emergency interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve, which lowered borrowing costs to almost zero and teamed up with other central banks to create new swap lines to give easier access to dollars.

The slump means that the Dow has lost almost 30% of its value this year.

There were heavy losses in Europe too, where the FTSE 100 dropped 4% to an eight year low. The Footsie fell below 5,000 points at one stage, and has also lost some 30% of its value in 2020.

Investors were spooked by signs that Europe’s economy is going into recession, with Italy, Spain and France now on lockdown.

In the UK, prime minister Boris Johnson advised people to work from home where possible and to avoid pubs, clubs and theatres:

Johnson unveiled a series of hugely stringent new restrictions to slow what he said was the now-rapid spread of coronavirus in the UK, including a 14-day isolation for all households with symptoms, a warning against “non-essential” contact, and an end to all mass gatherings.

Airlines led the rout in London today, with several - including British Airways parent firm IAG and budget airline easyJet - announcing they were grounding their fleets and cancelling flights. Analysts fear many will have collapsed by May

Australia's market to slide again:

The AAP newswire also predicts that Australia’s market will slide by around 4% (although there’s still time for that to change:

Investors are bracing for another wild day on the share market after US equities tanked overnight following the worst loss in history for Australian stocks.

The SPI200 futures contract was down 209 points, or 4.14%, at 4839 points at 0700 AEDT on Tuesday, suggesting Australia’s volatile market will plunge at 1000 AEDT.

NAB’s morning call note says global markets were far from impressed with measures to counteract the economic impacts of the coronavirus on Monday - despite the Fed Reserve cutting interest rates by a full one per cent, and the return of quantitative easing.

Global markets plunged overnight with the Dow Jones down 10 per cent.

Australia’s benchmark S&P/ASX200 finished down 537.3 points, or 9.7%, at 5,002 on Monday, eclipsing an 8.3% drop back on October 10, 2008, during the height of the global financial crisis.

The dive put the index back to levels last seen in April 2016.

The ASX200 has lost 30.5% of its value in three and a half weeks of tumultuous trading since February 20.

The Aussie dollar was buying 61.24 US cents at 0700 AEDT on Tuesday, up from Monday’s 60.96 US cents, which was its lowest level against its US counterpart since 2003.

Wall Street’s Monday night rout will weigh on Asia-Pacific markets down when Tuesday’s trading session begins.

Australia’s ASX 200 index is expected to fall, having already tumbled almost 10% on Monday.

Kyle Rodda of IG writes:

ASX200 to open lower today:

Though it’s proven an unreliable indicator amidst all the market volatility, SPI Futures are suggesting the ASX200 ought to open 4.1 per cent lower this morning. The expected spill in the index comes after a day in which it registered the worst intraday performance in its history.

The ASX200 shed 9.7 per cent on Monday, with the big banks leading the losses. The financial sector sapped 174 points from the market, largely due to investors’ pricing-in the negative consequences of lower rates on bank profits.

The US Federal Reserve’s attempts to calm the markets hasn’t been an overwhelming sucesss.

Last night, the Fed surprised investors with a big emergency rate cut, and the promise to create another $700bn of asset purchases.

This attempt to prop up the markets has triggered fresh alarm on Wall Street. Investors are concerned that the Fed is itself panicking about the US economy (how bad are things really?), and anxious that monetary policy will not stave off a recession.

Washington Post columnist Brian Klaas points out that today’s crash was actually slightly worst than the original Black Monday in 2019:

Wall Street’s tumble came as European finance ministers pledged to do “whatever it takes” to stem the economic damage of coronavirus on European economies and ensure a rapid recovery.

After a conference call of around four and a half hours, the 27 ministers issued a statement promising “a strong determination to do whatever it takes” - probably a deliberate echo of the former European Central Bank chief Mario Draghi’s 2012 pledge to preserve the single currency, which proved a turning point in the eurozone crisis.

But the absence of a far-reaching EU-wide stimulus plan is likely to disappoint centrist, socialist and green politicians, who had called for such a sweeping response to boost the economy as the world faces a far-reaching slowdown.

Mário Centeno, president of the 19-country Eurozone, said ministers stood ready to take further action as the crisis evolved.

“We will to whatever it takes and more to restore confidence and support a rapid recovery.”

“Today we have put together a first set of national and European measures while setting a framework for further action to respond to a rapidly evolving crisis.”

Updated

Some instant reaction to today’s Wall Street tumble:

Wall Street’s late tumble came as Donald Trump gave a more serious assessment of the dangers of the coronavirus crisis.

As flagged earlier, the US president suggested it could take until July or August to get the outbreak under control.

CNBC has the details:

Asked when the U.S. might expect to turn a corner in its efforts to rein in the virus, Trump said that “If we do a really good job, we’ll not only hold the death down to a level that is much lower than the other way, had we not done a good job, but people are talking about July, August, something like that.”

Trump also spoke about the prospect of lockdowns in “certain areas” or “hot spots”, as the White House outlined its recommendations for Americans to avoid gatherings of 10 or more people, and to refrain from seating at bars, restaurants and food courts to stem the spread of the coronavirus.

I think the Dow is now at its lowest level since February 2017, shortly after Donald Trump became US president:

This is the second time in three trading sessions that the Dow has suffered its worst fall since 1987.

The index has now posted four serious plunges in March already, and has lost 20% of its value this month alone.

Wall Street's worst day since Black Monday in 1987

Newsflash! Wall Street has just suffered its worst day since 1987.

A late tumble in New York has seen the main indices plunge by 12%.

The S&P 500 index has shed 324 points, or 11.98%, to 2,386 points.

The Dow has tumbled by almost 3,000 points -- its biggest points fall ever - as it slumped by 13% to 20,186.

This, the latest in a series of stomach-churning falls, is Wall Street’s worst day in over 30 years, as fears of a global downturn have accelerated sharply in recent days.

Donald Trump’s warning that the US could fall into recession has helped to push stocks lower.

Trump: US may be falling into recession

Over in Washington, president Donald Tump has conceded that the US economy could fall into recession.

Trump is holding a media briefing at the White House now, with the US coronavirus task force.

Asked if the US economy is heading into recession, the president replied it “may be”, but that the important thing is to tackle the coronavirus. Once the virus “goes away”, the US will see a tremendous economic surge, he insisted.

But, Trump also suggested that the worst of the virus outbreak may be over by July or August, or possibly later.

US authorities are also tightening their guidelines, recommending avoiding social gatherings of more than 10 people over the next 15 days, to slow the virus’s spread.

These guidelines also recommend that places with evidence of “community spread” of the virus should close bars, restaurants, food courts, gyms and other places where people congregate -- which will have a very severe impact on companies in those areas.

Kristalina Georgieva, head of the IMF, has welcomed the G7 pledge:

Earlier today, Georgieva said the Fund “stands ready” to use its $1 trillion lending capacity to help countries that are struggling with the economic impact of the coronavirus.

Chris Giles of the Financial Times has put his finger on the problem with today’s G7 statement -- it’s a bit woolly (implying leaders haven’t achieved a major breakthrough).

It might be wrong to say that the Federal Reserve’s latest emergency measures have failed. It’s more that they can’t, alone, address the threat Covid-19 poses to global health and the global economy.

As Solita Marcelli of UBS Global Wealth Management puts it (via Reuters):

This is a different type of crisis. Lower rates will not create demand when people are home.

“But this doesn’t mean what the Fed has done is futile. Lower rates are a precondition to other policies.

So I think this has to be done, but it’s understandable the way the market is reacting.”

Goldman Sachs also dampened the mood on Wall Street today

They predicted the US economy would stagnate in January-March, and then shrink dramatically - by 5% - in April-June. Serious, worrying stuff. But they also predict the economy would bounce back later in the year - meaning annual growth of 0.4% (down from 1.2% before.

Marketwatch has more details:

The team said the prospect of a recovery and strong growth in the second half were dependent on whether social distancing and warmer weather reduces the number of virus cases, how quickly reduced infections will bring a return to normality and how effective fiscal and monetary policy turns out to be.

Goldman Sachs chief equity strategist David Kostin said, in a separate note, the S&P 500 could fall to as low as 2,000 points if the economic impact of the virus worsens but expected the index to reach 3,200 by the end of 2020.

The G7’s combined statement has not lifted the mood on Wall Street.

Instead, the main indices are still down almost 10% in late trading - on track for another day of huge losses.

  • Dow: down 9.6% or 2,226 points at 20,959
  • S&P 500: down 8.6% or 235 points at 2,475

Boeing is having a desperately bad day, down 20% right now, as many of its customers slash services and start mothballing jets.

House improvement group Home Depot are down 15%, with insurance group Travelers Companies losing 14%.

A review of UK company rules has opened the door for a raft of AGMs being delayed due to the coronavirus outbreak.

It’s an important step that could safeguard the health of hundreds of shareholders, including elderly investors, as the UK government said it would no longer support mass gatherings.

The business department has backed fresh guidance from the ICSA – known as the governance institute – which said this afternoon that companies have five options:

  • Hold the AGM as planned, with appropriate modifications.
  • Delay convening the AGM, if notice has not yet been issued.
  • Postpone the AGM, if permitted under the articles of association (Articles).
  • Adjourn the AGM
  • Conduct a hybrid AGM, if permitted under the articles

The guidance was provided with legal advice from law firm Slaughter and May, and has also been backed by other groups including accounting regulator the Financial Reporting Council, GC100, the Investment Association and the Quoted Companies Alliance.

But we’re expecting further updates tomorrow from the ICSA on this issue tomorrow, to reflect the government’s new guidance....

Updated

G7 leaders pledge to work together

The leaders of the world’s biggest economies have pledged to work more closely together to tackle the coronavirus crisis.

Following their conference call today, G7 leaders have agreed to marshal “the full power of our governments” address Covid-19, which they say is “a major risk” for the world economy.

But there doesn’t seem to be a major new commitment, with a price tag attached, that might reassure the market.

The leaders of the US, UK, Canada, Germany, France, Italy and Japan have all agreed a four-point plan:

  • Coordinate on necessary public health measures to protect people at risk from COVID-19;
  • Restore confidence, growth, and protect jobs;
  • Support global trade and investment;
  • Encourage science, research, and technology cooperation.

The G7 leaders say:

By acting together, we will work to resolve the health and economic risks caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and set the stage for a strong recovery of strong, sustainable economic growth and prosperity.

The statement also contains a clear pledge to support companies and workers across the G7:

We are mobilizing the full range of instruments, including monetary and fiscal measures, as well as targeted actions, to support immediately and as much as necessary the workers, companies, and sectors most affected. This is particularly important for small and medium businesses and working families.

We also ask our central banks to continue to coordinate to provide the necessary monetary measures in order to support economic and financial stability, and to promote recovery and growth.

Updated

Over in Westminster, British PM Boris Johnson has talked up the prospect of an economic bounce back, once the coronavirus outbreak has been curbed.

He told a press conference on Covid-19 that:

“This is unlike 2008, there isn’t a systemic problem within the economy.

If we can get the disease under control...then there is absolutely no reason why economies worldwide should not come roaring back.”

However, Johnson also warned people to avoid going out to places like pubs, clubs and theatres. If one member of a family shows symptoms of the coronavirus, they must all self-isolate for two weeks.

That will all have a severe impact on workers, and the wider economy.

Especially as chief medical officer Chris Whitty warns that tackling Covid-19 will take “quite a number of weeks”.

European stock markets also had another torrid day, falling to their lowest point since 2013.

The Stoxx 600 has dropped by 4.8% to close at 284 points. Banks, consumer cyclical firms, energy companies, and industrial groups led the slide.

The FTSE 100 has now lost roughly a third of its value in the last two months.

That’s an astonishing slump, as the coronavirus has moved from a local problem in Wuhan, to a blow to China’s manufacturing sector, to a massive shock to world demand and supply.

Updated

By my maths, almost £54bn was knocked off the FTSE 100 index today.

That’s merely a flesh wound, compared to some of the worse days in recent weeks. But it’s yet another blow to pension-savers, ISAs and other funds.

It takes the FTSE 100’s total losses over the coronavirus rout (which began just over three weeks ago) to around £565bn, I reckon.

Updated

FTSE 100 closes at eight-year low

Newsflash: Britain’s FTSE 100 index has closed at its lowest level in eight years, after another wild day of trading.

The Footsie has ended the day down 215 points, or 4%, at 5151 -- the weakest close since November 2011.

British Airways’ parent company, IAG, was the top faller (-27%), with easyJet (-19%) close behind.

Both easyJet and IAG warned this morning that they are grounding large swathes of their fleet for the next couple of months, which will have a serious impact on revenues.

Banks and financial stocks have also sunk - Barclays lost 13%, Prudential lost 12%, while asset manager M&G has shed 25% of its value.

Clearly the latest central bank interventions last night, led by the US Federal Reserve, has not provided much support.

However... the FTSE 100 was 8% lower earlier today when Wall Street opened with another almighty bump. So there was a small recovery by the close (but traders won’t be cheering...)

Vauxhall’s major UK manufacturing facilities are to close until March 27 as part of a Europe-wide shutdown by owner PSA Group due to coronavirus.

Carmakers including Fiat Chrysler, Peugeot, Volkswagen and its premium unit Audi are reducing production at their European plants as they grapple with the Coronavirus.

Like factories in the UK they do not have clarity on social-distancing rules in the workplace.

Audi said workers have downed tools over concerns about exposure to the virus while Fiat Chrysler said it was halting production for two weeks to help protect staff and adjust to decline in demand.

French carmaker PSA, which owns the Peugeot, Opel and Vauxhall brands, also said it was closing its European factories until March 27.

Ford said it was closing its plant in Valencia, Spain, for the rest of this week following a flurry of infections, and would reassess after talks with trade unions.

A spokeswoman said on Monday:

“We have had three positive cases of COVID-19 on the Valencia site in a 24-hour period, two of which involved more isolated workers who did not enter the assembly operations,”

Ford employees who had close contact with the affected workers are now in self-isolation. Ford adds:

“We will take all other appropriate steps to ensure that risk from this situation is minimised.”

Last week, some Spanish plants of the Renault-Nissan alliance and Volkswagen’s Spanish division Seat announced temporary stoppages that could last for days or weeks.

On Monday, Volkswagen’s Autoeuropa car assembly plant near Lisbon, Portugal, said it had reduced its daily output by 16% because of a shortage of workers after Portugal ordered all schools closed amid the coronavirus outbreak.

Volkswagen also said on Sunday it was preparing to suspend operations at its plant in Bratislava after Slovakia declared a state of emergency in response to the virus.

Another UK travel insurer has boarded itself up -- this time, the Post Office.

It’s one of the biggest suppliers of travel insurance policies in the UK. But, faced with the coronavirus crisis, and widespread flight cancellations, the Post Office has suspended its offerings - both online and in branches.

It says:

The Post Office has taken this difficult decision as it is unfair to sell travel insurance products to new customers who may not be able to claim due to the Covid-19 pandemic. Post Office Travel insurance products will therefore be unavailable to new customers for the foreseeable future.

The markets might calm down if they had more idea about how bad the Covid-19 epidemic is, argues Robin Brooks of finance industry body IIF.

Testing levels are varying between countries, with the US in particular lagging behind.

The smaller FTSE 250 index of UK-focused companies is also clawing its way back.

It’s still looking weak - down almost 7% today, as pub chains, bookies, food groups and travel operators are pummelled. But at least it’s better than the 12% slump we saw this morning.

In another example of how Covid-19 is shaking Europe, the EU is now proposing suspending all non-essential travel for 30 days.

Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the EU commission, tweeted the news.

Our main coronavirus liveblog has more details.

Just in: bookmaker William Hill has suspended its dividend payments to shareholders, following the mass cancellation of sporting events.

The conavirus crisis has ripped through the sporting world, stripping out most opportunities for punters to wager their money (and often lose it, in my personal experience),

With professional football in England on hold, along with leagues in Germany and France -- and even Euro 2020 under threat -- William Hill sees a major impact on its revenues and profits.

It says:

In light of the ongoing uncertainty created by COVID-19 and following recent developments to postpone or cancel sporting events and close US casinos, we anticipate a material impact to the Group’s revenue and earnings in 2020.

53% of our 2019 revenue was generated through our sports book business.

In a surprise development, a few shares are actually rising on the London exchange.

These plucky stocks include steel and mining group Evraz (+6%), supermarket chain Sainsbury (+2.7%), and software firm Sage Group (+2%).

They’re hugely outnumbered by the fallers, of course - with airlines IAG and easyJet still down at least 20%, and the housebuilders shedding around 15%.

But it’s helping to pull the FTSE 100 up from the abyss, to around 5,095 points -- which would still be an eight-year closing low.

EU finance ministers to discuss stimulus options

European finance ministers are facing calls to agree an EU-wide stimulus package to help European economies cope with the fallout of the coronavirus crisis, my colleague Jennifer Rankin reports from Brussels.

The EU’s 27 finance ministers are due to start talks via video link imminently, after the usual monthly eurozone meeting was expanded to include the eight EU non-euro countries. Face-to-face talks in Brussels were moved online, after increasing numbers of countries introduced policies to discourage travel.

Mário Centeno, the Portuguese minister chairing the meeting, said containing the virus was “bringing our economies to warlike times”.

In a video message ahead of the meeting, he promised the group would agree liquidity support to firms, especially small and medium-sized enterprises, as well as full flexibility on EU fiscal and state aid rules to allow governments to help ailing firms and out-of-work employees.

These measures were outlined by the European commission on Friday and are expected to be backed by ministers without any difficulty.

Centeno said:

Together we are giving a powerful response. But we know the virus hasn’t reached its peak. We must not kid ourselves, these are the first steps in a temporary, but long fight.

But the ministers are facing calls to go much further, such as developing an EU-wide stimulus package and making available an EU credit line to indebted countries.

In an open letter, Socialist and Democrat MEPs, the second-largest group in the European parliament, call for “a proper stimulus package agreed at the European level”, financed by the European Stability Mechanism, the eurozone bailout fund.

We call for a European-wide COVID-19 Economic Recovery Plan, with a consolidated and coherent strategy for the rapid mobilisation of the different available EU instruments to support people, SMEs and businesses.

This must include the European Central Bank, the European Investment Fund, the European Stability Mechanism and other banking union tools. The sooner this is done the better, so we can limit the socioeconomic impact of COVID-19.

Green MEPs have delivered a similar message, but put emphasis on accelerating the European Green Deal, a sweeping plan to transform Europe’s economy to drastically reduce emissions.

They write:

The economic challenge that represents the Coronavirus outbreak has also to be seen as an opportunity to undertake in the context of the EU Green deal an urgent reorientation of the EU economy as the current crisis reveals the fragility of a carbon-intensive system built on highly interconnected and specialised global supply chains.

Both groups want an EU-backed credit line for indebted countries, intended to prevent markets betting against countries such as Italy will be forced to borrow more to deal with the crisis.

But not everyone is convinced now is the time for a general stimulus package.

Clemens Fuest, president of the ifo institut and adviser to the German government, told the Observer that encouraging social consumption makes “no sense” when people are being discouraged from going to bars and restaurants.

He said eurozone ministers should issue “a general signal of solidarity” i.e a statement of support to indebted countries, rather than a precautionary credit line.

Dow now at its lowest since 2017

The Dow Jones industrial average has now slumped to its lowest since spring 2017.

Having almost hit 30,000 points in February, it has now shed roughly 30% of its value in the last month -- down to around 21,000.

This means that much of the gains racked up under Donald Trump (and boasted about by the president) have been wiped out by Covid-19:

The markets have completely lost faith in the idea that the global economy could bounce back from the shock of Covid-19.

Instead, they seem to be pricing in a slump - followed by stagnation. Or an L-shaped recovery, not a V-shaped one.

Neil Mackinnon, global macro strategist at VTB Capital, explains:

“From an economic perspective, COVID-19, which started out as a negative supply shock, is now turning into a severe demand shock.

These shocks are no longer one-quarter hits followed by a V-shaped economic recovery but now are transforming into an L-shaped recovery. GS, in its latest US economic forecast, has revised downward its US real GDP growth for this year to 0.4%, but this forecast is contingent on a 3-4% rebound in the third and fourth quarters of this year.

The likelihood of a second half rebound is demanding, and the risk is that growth stays flat or negative.

The coronavirus has now reached the Basel headquarters of the Bank of International Settlements:

Today’s Wall Street slump shows comprehensively that the US Federal Reserve has failed to calm the markets, with its surprise interest rate cut last night.

The Fed had hoped to tackle the tensions in the markets by cutting rates to near zero, pledging to buy $700bn of assets, and easing banks’s reserve requirements.

Teaming up with the central banks fo the UK, Japan, Switzerland, Canada and the eurozone to make dollars more cheaply available was also meant to ease liquidity in the markets.

But Wall Street, like other international markets, is unimpressed.

Neil Wilson of Markets.com explains:

The Federal Reserve has panicked.

It didn’t just fire its bazooka, it dropped an atom bomb of liquidity and monetary stimulus. The Fed slashed rates 100bps and announced $700 of QE. Jay Powell, the Fed chair, also slashed rates at the discount window emergency rate by 125bps and cut banks’ reserve requirements.

There was also a coordinated central bank action by the Fed along with its counterparts in the UK, Europe, Japan, Switzerland and Canada to ease the flow of dollar liquidity. This should help stem some of the moves in FX markets but I fear that there is still an almighty dollar squeeze. the RBNZ also cut rates by 75bps and the BoJ is stepping up ETF purchases.

Policymakers are really starting to panic - this ought to be good for markets but the uncertainty over the economy and the outbreak mean everyone is derisking, everyone is seeking shelter in cash. The collapse in gold prices in the last week in the face of this volatility has been likened to the biggest margin call in history.

Can world leaders stop the panic in the markets, and ward off a global downturn?

We’ll find out later today, after they hold an emergency call -- or video summit -- to discuss the crisis.

The recent share plunges shows that the markets are screaming out for joint action to prop up the economy. Such a plan would need to save once-healthy firms now facing a cash flow crisis and help people who are laid off as demand slumps.

It’s a broad-based rout on Wall Street today.

Every stock on the Dow is in the red.

Aircraft maker Boeing has slumped by a fifth - demand for its jets will be badly hit as airlines suspend flights and ground their jets.

Credit card operator American Express is off 16.5%, on the prospect of a slump in US consumer spending.

DOW PLUNGES 12%

Newsflash: Trading has resumed on Wall Street, and stocks are rocketing lower:

  • The Dow Jones has slumped by 2,798 points - or 12.07% - to 20,387.
  • The broader S&P Index tumbled by over 10.5% - losing 286 points to 2,425.

This more than wipes out Friday’s late rally -- which was triggered when Donald Trump announced he was declaring a state of emergency over the coronavirus.

Updated

The news of Wall Street’s plunge has driven shares down even further in Europe.

The FTSE 100 index is now down 8.5%, or 460 points, at 4904 points -- still its lowest intraday level since October 2011.

Trading on the Brazilian stock market has also been halted, for 30 minutes, after shares plunged in early trading:

Here’s where Wall Street was halted, after just moments of trading today:

And here’s the details of the circuit breakers that kicked in:

Wall Street trading halted after stocks plunge

NEWSFLASH: Stocks have plunged like stones as Wall Street opens...forcing trading to be immediately paused.

A wave of selling sent the S&P 500 reeling over 8%. The Dow slumped by 9%.

Bank stocks are among the big fallers after last night’s emergency cut to US interest rates to nearly zero, with JP Morgan and Mortan Stanley down at least 17%.

Airline stocks are also leading the fallers, amid forecasts that many will be bankrupt by May.

This has triggered the circuit-breakers that kick in if the main indices slump by 7%. So er have a 15 minute pause....

Cruise operator Carnival has warned that it expects to make a loss this year - but it doesn’t know how bad it will be.

In a statement just released, it says:

The Corporation believes the ongoing effects of COVID-19 on its operations and global bookings will have a material negative impact on its financial results and liquidity. The Corporation is taking additional actions to improve its liquidity, including capital expenditure and expense reductions, and pursuing additional financing.

Given the uncertainty of the situation, the Corporation is currently unable to provide an earnings forecast, however we expect results of operations for the fiscal year ending November 30, 2020 to result in a net loss.

Frankly it would be miraculous if Carnival didn’t make a loss, given it has been forced to pause operations across the globe - and suffered coronavirus outbreaks on two of its Princess ships.

Irish broadcaster RTE is reporting that around 140,000 people have been laid off work in Ireland because of the measures taken to tackle the coronavirus.

It says:

This is a combination of 70,000 restaurant workers, 50,000 pub and bar staff, and around 20,000 crèche and childcare workers.

Those eligable are being urged not to go to Intreo, the public employment service, offices, to abide by social distancing rules and avoid long queues.

Manufacturing in New York state has slumped into a deep downturn, according to the latest Empire State survey of factory output.

This manufacturing index has slumped to -21.5 for March, from +12.5 in February. That’s the worst reading since the financial crisis in 2009.

Companies reported that new orders, and completed shipments both slumped -- showing that the coronavirus is having a serious impact on economic demand.

Wall Street is heading for a 10% plunge -- which would immediately activate circuit-breakers, and trigger a 15-minute suspension.

Most airlines could be bankrupt by May, due to the restrictions being imposed on flights, according to the Center for Aviation (CAPA) consultancy.

In an sobering warning, CAPA says:

“Many airlines have probably already been driven into technical bankruptcy, or are at least substantially in breach of debt covenants. By the end of May 2020, most airlines in the world will be bankrupt.

Co-ordinated government and industry action is needed — now — if catastrophe is to be avoided.”

Virgin Atlantic has joined the ranks of airlines slashing its activity, as the travel industry reels from Covid-19.

Virgin is planning to slash flights by 80% by 26 March, and will terminate its London Heathrow-Newark route.

The coronavirus crisis hasn’t prevented Apple from being fined for anti-competitive conduct today in France.

Reuters has the details:

France’s competition watchdog on Monday fined iPhone maker Apple €1.1bn for anti-competitive behaviour in its distribution network and an abuse of economic dependence on its resellers.

Two of Apple’s wholesalers, Tech Data and Ingram Micro, were fined €63 and €76m respectiely, for unlawfully agreeing on prices, the authority said.

“Apple and its two wholesalers have agreed not to compete with each other and to prevent distributors from competing with each other, thereby sterilising the wholesale market for Apple products,” it said.

Updated

Matt Weller, global head of market research at GAIN Capital, predicts a very rough day on Wall Street:

He’s picked out some stocks to watch:

  • Apple (AAPL) is plunging -12% as of writing. Though the company has reopened its stores in mainland China, it’s closed all of its other outlets for the next two weeks.
  • Airline stocks are collapsing, with Delta (DAL) and United (UAL) both poised to open down by more than -14%.
  • Big bank stocks are also on the selling block, despite the Fed’s attempts to keep them well financed: Bank of America (BAC) -17%, JP Morgan Chase (JPM) -16%, Goldman Sachs (GS) -13%, Citigroup (C) -18%
  • Even video conferencing standout Zoom Communications (ZM) is pointing to a -4% lower open.

Stocks will remain under pressure until governments bite the bullet and launch spending plans to support the economy, he says:

As it stands, traders are desperate for a big fiscal stimulus package from the US government. As others have noted, the fundamental nature of the virus and resulting quarantine cannot be solved by monetary policy; it will require direct payments and subsidies from the federal government to tide households and businesses over while they wait out the worst of the virus’s spread.

The clocks have struck noon in the City of London, and the markets are still a mess.

Fears of a global recession have driven the FTSE 100 down 7.2% this morning to 4976 points. That’s its lowest since late 2011, compared to 7404 points just over three weeks ago.

The FTSE 250 index of medium sized UK companies has slumped by over 12% today, with transport firm First Group and pub chain Marston’s almost halving.

European markets are suffering even more damage, as economies across the region lock down. The Stoxx 600 has shed 8.7%, back to its lowest since the debt crisis of 2012.

Wall Street is expected to plunge sharply when trading begins in 90 minutes, as the Fed’s interest rate cut fails to calm the panic.

In overnight trading, the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures contracts have all slumped by 5% -- the maximum allowed, meaning they’ll probably fall even further after the opening bell.

Oil slumps 10%!

The oil price is plunging dramatically today, as fears of a global recession ripple through the markets.

Brent crude has plunged by 10% to just $30 per barrel, its lowest since 2016.

With Saudi Arabia pressing on with its oil price war, and economic activity slowing thanks to Covid-19, energy prices are heading south.

Normally this would be a boost to energy importers - cutting transport costs, and easing inflation. But these aren’t terribly important, right now, in the face of such as severe supply and demand shock.

UK stock market investors must be feeling pretty bleak right now, watching their portfolios shrivel day by day.

And it’s certainly alarming to see the FTSE 100 at its lowest points level since autumn 2011 - a sign that UK company valuations are slumping.

But Jamie Powell of FT Alphaville makes an important point: the FTSE 100’s total returns are what matters. Factor in dividends over the years, and the picture is a bit rosier.

According to my Eikon terminal, the FTSE 100’s total returns since the start of 2012 are 33%, or roughly 3.5% per year.

Obviously it was a lot better before this crisis began (+80% back in January). But still better than sticking your money in the bank eight years ago.

New Bank of England governor: Keen to avoid economic damage

The first day in a new job is already tricky. But Andrew Bailey has walked into quite a crisis as he succeeds Mark Carney at the Bank of England.

Bailey has hit the airwaves in an attempt to calm nerves in the City, telling the BBC that the Bank will take “prompt action” when necessary to deal with the impact of Covid-19.

The new governor said the Bank is “very keen” to avoid permanent damage to the UK economy from the shock of the coronavirus outbreak.

“That’s why you saw prompt action last week, that’s why you will see prompt action again when we need to take it, and the public can be assured of that.

Bailey also hopes to help the UK negotiate its new relationship with the EU after Brexit, and “address our presence in the country as a whole”. That’s another hint that jobs may be moving out of London (once people are happy to move anywhere).

Full story: Markets are reeling again

If you’re just tuning in -- take a deep breath, and catch up with the mayhem here:

Investors are absolutely reeling from the losses of recent weeks, and rightly so.

The FTSE 100 index has fallen faster than after the global financial crisis a decade ago, and much faster than after previous shocks.

Channel 4’s Paul McNamara has crunched the numbers:

After two and a half-hours of trading, European markets are still deep in the red as fears of a global recession swirl through the City.

The FTSE 100 is down 329 points, or 6%, at 5,034 - on track for its lowest close since 2011. Holiday and airline stocks are still being routed - with TUI down 32%, IAG down 22% and easyJet down 23%.

The Stoxx 600, which covers European companies, is down 8%, at its lowest since June 2013.

David Madden of CMC Markets UK says investors are “blindly” selling, with last night’s emergency action from global central bankers causing alarm.

It has been another brutal morning in the markets as traders are fearful the world economy is heading for a recession.

The fears surrounding the coronavirus crisis continues to rise in tandem with the number of new infections. Central banks around the world have stepped up their actions to combat the emergency, most notably the Federal Reserve – who slashed interest rates to 0-0.25%, as well as announcing a $700 billion quantitative easing scheme. We have seen rate cuts in South Korea and New Zealand too. Central bankers are doing their best to calm the markets but in reality it is having the opposite effect.

The radical measures have sent out a very worrying message to dealers, and that is why they are blindly dumping stocks.

TFL revenues hit as passengers shun underground

Transport For London have warned that the coronavirus epidemic could cost it £500m in lost income.

TFL, which runs London Underground, London Overground and the Docklands Light Railway, has suffered a slump in passenger numbers in recent weeks, it says.

Passengers numbers were also down in February due to bad storms, but this situation has deteriorated dramatically in March - with underground travel down almost 20%.

TFL says:

In the week commencing 2 March 2020 further reductions in ridership became apparent, coinciding with growing public awareness of the Covid-19 virus, starting with modest reductions in ridership of around two per cent compared to the same period in the previous year. Since then, a growing number of firms and individuals have changed their travel behaviour, with greater numbers of people working from home. This has led to an acceleration in the reduction in passenger numbers to around 19% on London Underground and 10% on buses compared to the same week the previous year, with days later in the week showing reductions larger than that average.

This is an evolving situation and the financial impact is difficult to predict. This will depend on the duration and severity of the spread of the Covid-19 virus. TfL’s current forecast, based on government scenarios, suggest that this could be a reduction in passenger income of up to £500m.

TFL currently holds £2bn of cash -- it is legally compelled to hold £1.2bn to absorb financial shocks.

Ryanair to ground planes too

Newsflash: Ryanair has announced sweeping cuts to its flights in the next two months, following similar moves from IAG and easyJet this morning.

Ryanair says it will cut seat capacity by up to 80% in April and May -- and says “a full grounding of the fleet” cannot be ruled out.

It is also taking action to shore up its finances (again, like its rivals).

That will include grounding surplus aircraft, deferring all capital expenditure and share buybacks, freezing recruitment and discretionary spending, and implementing a series of voluntary leave options, temporarily suspending employment contracts, and significant reductions to working hours and payments.

Ryanair also warns that the impact and duration of the Covid-19 pandemic is “impossible to determine”.

Ryanair’s Michael O’Leary says:

Ryanair is taking all actions necessary to cut operating expenses, and improve cash flows at each of our airlines.

Ryanair is a resilient airline group, with a very strong balance sheet, and substantial cash liquidity, and we can, and will, with appropriate and timely action, survive through a prolonged period of reduced or even zero flight schedules, so that we are adequately prepared for the return to normality, which will come about sooner rather than later as EU Governments take unprecedented action to restrict the spread of Covid-19”.

Britain’s FTSE 250 index, which contains many UK-focused firms, is having a torrid day - down 11%.

And there are some gruesome moves.

First Group, the transport operator, have HALVED in value this morning to 37p. It operates rail and bus services in the UK, US, Canada and Ireland - so is facing a massive drop in revenues as people self-isolate.

Restaurant Group, which runs Wagamama, Frankie & Benny’s and Chiquito, have slumped by 41% this morning.

Pub chains are also suffering extremely, with Mitchells & Butler down 32% and Marstons down 40%.

Obviously they are going to suffer a slump in takings as people stay at home. But the industry is facing another problem -- insurance payments may not protect them from coronavirus losses.

Just in: Whatever was wrong with Associated British Food’s share price has been fixed.

It’s now down “just” 12%, not 99.999% as wrongly shown earlier. These glitches do happen, but it’s not good on a terrifying enough day.

Something very odd has happened to Associated British Food’s share price this morning.

The stock has slumped to the bottom of the FTSE 100, seemingly down 99.999% to 0.01p, from over £18 on Friday night.

ABF was under pressure this morning, after reporting that 20% of store space at its Primark chain is currently shut across Europe. But the sudden slump, from £15 to 0.01p in a moment, suggests some kind of technical error.

As you can see, there was a massive surge of trading, just as it crashed to 0.01p. Fat finger error?

Today’s stock market slumps show that central bankers cannot solve the Covid-19 crisis alone.

Record low interest rates, cheap bank loans and liquidity injections can’t make up for the massive slump in consumer spending -- or keep country borders open.

The pressure on governments to provide larger economic rescue packages is building, with some companies facing serious cash flow problems. Those with large debt piles are also going to struggle to refinance their borrowing in the current climate.

Ayush Ansal, chief investment officer at Crimson Black Capital, says the Fed’s emergency rate cut last night may actually have made the panic worse.

“There’s a quicksand effect to central bank action right now.

“The more central banks struggle to get economies out of the current crisis, the deeper they, and the markets, go in.

“Sentiment has reached a point where positive policy measures are compounding market fears and are effectively being catastrophised.

“The fall of the FTSE 100 and other European exchanges on Monday’s open following the Fed’s action highlights the problem policymakers are facing.

“The shock to markets and economies from Covid-19 is so unique that monetary policy alone will not be effective enough.

“Monetary policy will have to work in tandem with radical fiscal measures to reduce the severe economic fall-out from Covid-19.

Covid-19 recession fears hit markets hard

The markets are refusing to be calmed by the Federal Reserve’s shock interest rate cut last night.

European markets are sinking deeper into the mire as well, with further heavy losses across the region.

  • FTSE 100: -7.3%
  • France’s CAC: -9%
  • Germany’s DAX: -8%
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB: -7.75%
  • Spain’s IBEX: -8%

Helal Miah, investment research analyst at The Share Centre, says traders are bracing for a severe recession.

“The action taken by the Fed’s overnight has only added to the roller coaster ride that is the current state of the financial markets. Its decision to cut rates to zero is reminiscent of the emergency situation during the financial crisis and indication of where it thinks the US economy could go – a recession or maybe worse! The Fed’s decision, which was co-ordinated with the Bank of Japan also taking action, initially lent support to financial futures markets at the open on Sunday night.

“However, as the night progressed Asian markets tracked lower and the UK FTSE100 has opened down another 7% this morning and broken through 5,000, a level which was unthinkable just a few weeks ago. While Central Bank action should be welcomed to support crumbling economic activity, it will do little to actually get consumers spending at a time when restaurants, bars and other entertainment venues are facing closure and will bring inevitable job losses.

“Unfortunately I believe the markets for now will ignore monetary policy actions and focus on the pace of the spread of the disease and the drastic actions Governments across the world take to stop it. Monetary & fiscal policies and direct support for the most affected sectors will help on the recovery post the peak of the epidemic, but the markets for the time being are set to continue on this rollercoaster ride.”

Updated

As well as the ailing travel firms, the list of worst-performing companies in London includes asset managers St James’s Place (-19%) and M&G (-16%), housebuilders Taylor Wimpey (-16%) and Barratt (-15%).

But Britain’s supermarket chains are holding up well, with shares in Sainsbury briefly turning positive despite the rout.

Consumer goods maker Reckitt Benckiser is up too. Covid-19 will mean strong demand for its Dettol cleaning product, and healthcare products such as strepsils, lemsip and nurofen painkillers.

Here’s the list of worst and least-worst fallers in London this morning.

Newsflash: The FTSE 100 has now fallen below the 5,000 point mark for the first time since 2011.

The Footsie is now down 402 points, or 7.5%, at 4965 points -- the lowest point since October 2011.

Every single share is down, in yet another day of horrendous losses.

The consumer cyclical sector are down 11%, industrial stocks and banks have both lost 10%.

Travel and holiday stocks are plunging this morning

Holiday operator TUI is leading today’s rout in London, slumping by 35%.

TUI, Europe’s largest holiday firm, announced last night it will temporarily suspend the vast majority of all travel operations until further notice.

That will include package travel, cruises and hotel operations -- a stunning move, highlighting that Europe’s holiday industry in in a severe crisis.

EasyJet are close behind, slumping 28% after it announced today it is grounding most of its fleet.

IAG, owner of British Airways, are down 26% after outlining its own flight reduction plans. Clearly Donald Trump’s ban on UK travel to the US is a bodyblow to its lucrative transatlantic business.

FTSE 100 hits eight-year low

The London stock market has plunged to an eight-year low at the start of trading.

The FTSE 100 has slumped by 258 points, or 4.8%, at the open. Travel companies are leading the slide.

That takes the index down to 5109, a level not seen since November 2011, in another grim day for the markets.

Clearly the Federal Reserve’s shock interest rate cut hasn’t calmed fears of a deep global recession, and the escalating coronavirus pandemic.

European stock markets are also being badly hit again, with the Stoxx 600 index falling 4.7% to its lowest since June 2013.

Updated

Flutter Entertainment, which owns Paddy Power bookmakers and online gambling site Betfair, has also issued a coronavirus warning this morning.

Flutter estimates that the surge of sports cancellations in recent days (including English football until at least April) will hurt its profits badly.

If current restrictions remain in place until the end of August (plus the suspension of Australian sport and the cancellation of the Euro 2020 football tournament) then Flutter’s profits would be cut by up to £110 this year.

But the situation could be even worse......

This estimate assumes that our UK and Irish shops remain open and that scheduled UK, Irish and Australian horse racing fixtures continue to run, albeit behind closed doors.

Should horse racing be cancelled in the three regions and our UK/Irish shops be closed, we estimate that this would incrementally reduce Group EBITDA by approximately £30m per month.

Budget clothing retailer Primark has also been hit by the coronavirus.

It tells the City that 20% of its selling space is currently closed, due to the lockdowns in Italy, France, Spain and Austria.

This will have a significant impact on Primark’s sales, its owner ABF warns:

These stores currently generate 30 percent of Primark’s sales. From the date of this announcement, we had expected sales of £190m from these stores over the next four weeks.

The remainder of the estate, including the UK which represents 41 percent of sales, has seen like-for-like sales declines over the last two weeks and these have accelerated over the past few days as a result of reduced footfall. We are managing the business appropriately but do not expect to significantly mitigate the effect of the contribution lost from these sales.

Updated

Easyjet: Majority of fleet could be grounded

Budget airline easyJet has also announced it is cutting flights - a move that could leave most of its planes parked up.

It told shareholders:

Due to the unprecedented level of travel restrictions being imposed by governments in response to the Coronavirus pandemic and significantly reduced levels of customer demand, easyJet has undertaken further significant cancellations. These actions will continue on a rolling basis for the foreseeable future and could result in the grounding of the majority of the easyJet fleet.

easyJet will continue to operate rescue flights for short periods where we can, in order to repatriate customers.

IAG slashes flying capacity

British Airways’ parent company, is slashing flights following a slump in demand due to the coronavirus.

IAG, which also owns Iberia and Aer Lingus, is cutting flying capacity by 75% in April an June. It will also ground surplus aircraft, and cut capital investment and non-essential spending. IAG also plans to freeze recruitment, cut working hours, and offer staff voluntary leave.

IAG has already suspended flights to China, reduced capacity on Asian routes, and cancelled all flights to, from and within Italy. The slump in demand for holidays to Spain, and by Donald Trump’s ban on some flights to the US, is a further blow.

Willie Walsh, IAG’s chief executive, said:

“We have seen a substantial decline in bookings across our airlines and global network over the past few weeks and we expect demand to remain weak until well into the summer. We are therefore making significant reductions to our flying schedules. We will continue to monitor demand levels and we have the flexibility to make further cuts if necessary.

We are also taking actions to reduce operating expenses and improve cash flow at each of our airlines. IAG is resilient with a strong balance sheet and substantial cash liquidity.”

Walsh had been due to retire soon, but has agreed to stay on. This means his successor, Luis Gallego, can remain in his current job running Spain’s Iberia.

Updated

The full scale of the economic pain suffered by China has become clearer this morning.

Retail sales across China plunged by 20% year-on-year in the January-February period, while industrial output fell 13.5%

That’s the worst factory output output since 1990, and implies China’s economy could be contracting this quarter. More here:

Introduction: Markets keep sliding despite Fed bazooka

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.

The financial panic triggered by the coronavirus pandemic is entering its fourth week, and showing no signs of ending.

It’s shaping up to be another bad day in the markets, despite America’s central bank slashing interest rates to almost zero last night in a fresh emergency move.

The Fed also announced a sweeping range of stimulus measures -- including an additional $700bn in asset purchases, and boosted dollar swap lines with fellow central banks including the Bank of England.

The Fed had been expected to cut rates at its meeting on Wednesday, but pulled the trigger early amid signs that a global recession is upon us.

My colleague Dominic Rushe explains:

The Fed’s move marks an unprecedented second emergency rate cut in as many weeks and came ahead of a week that is expected to be marked once more by dramatic moves in the stock markets.

The central bank had been due to meet this week and was widely expected to announce a cut in rates on Wednesday. At a press conference Fed chairman Jerome Powell said he expected a “significant economic effect” from the virus in the “near-term” but that the longer term is still “highly uncertain and, I would say, in fact, unknowable.”

The Fed said it would hold rates at the new, low level “until it is confident that the economy has weathered recent events and is on track” to achieve its twin goals of stable prices and strong employment.

Other central bankers also acted overnight. The Bank of New Zealand slashed borrowing costs to 0.25% from 1%, while the Bank of Japan pledged to pump money into the Tokyo stock market by doubling its purchases of exchange-traded funds.

The Fed also teamed up with the Bank of England, the ECB, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of Canada and the Swiss National Bank to make US dollars available much cheaper to companies on their patch. These new cheaper dollar swap lines will allow banks to borrow US dollars at a rate only just above zero.

But Asian stock markets fell heavily. Japan’s Nikkei closed 2.5% lower, China’s CSI 300 lost 4%, while Australia’s A&P/ASX tumbled by another 9%.

European stock markets are expected to fall around 5% this morning, as the panicky selloff continues.

The FTSE 100 index is tipped to plunge towards 5,100 points for the first time since November 2011.

The recent lockdowns in Italy, Spain and France seem certain to push the eurozone into a sharp recession this year.

Meanwhile, Donald Trump’s ban on air travel from the EU and UK is putting airlines on the brink.. with UK operators calling for an urgent bailout.

The agenda

  • 12.30pm: Empire manufacturing survey of US factories in New York state. Likely to fall to 4.40 in March from 12.9 in February
 

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