The latest national accounts figures released on Wednesday by the bureau of statistics show that 2019 was the worst performing calendar year since the 1990s recession. Throughout the year, the economy grew just 1.8% – worse than even during the GFC. The figures show an economy dependent upon exports and government spending and very much ill-prepared to face the impact of the coronavirus.
As a general rule we look at the growth in the economy from quarter to quarter – and when you hear “annual growth” what it really means is a comparison of the current quarter with the same quarter a year ago.
On this score the latest GDP figures show a bit of improvement in December – GDP growth of 2.1% in trend terms – up from 1.9% in September:
But the latest figures allow us to judge the performance of the entire year, and here there is no good news.
At the end of 2018 Australia’s GDP was worth $1.871tn in real terms, 12 months later it had risen to $1.905tn – an increase of just 1.8%, the worst calendar year result in 29 years:
So yes, the economy was improving towards the end of last year, but only because it was coming off a dreadful low.
And when we look more closely, we see a rather worrying situation given these numbers pre-date the impact of the coronavirus and the bushfires.
In the December quarter, the biggest contribution to economic growth was government spending, and together with net exports it contributed more than household spending in the past year:
That is a rather stunning situation because household spending makes up 56% of the entire economy. And yet by the end of last year household spending was growing a truly woeful 1.2% – and that was after the tax cuts of last year:
Looking at household incomes we see that the tax cuts merely provided a one-off sugar hit but generated absolutely no ongoing improvement.
In September, household disposable income grew a stunning 1.1% in the quarter; and yet total household income in that quarter actually fell by 0.1%. What this showed was that the only reason households had more after-tax income in real terms was due to the tax cuts, not because of any actual increase in their income.
And with the impact of the tax cuts all gone in the December quarter, so too was any rise in our disposable income – they actually fell 0.3%:
It means that average Australian real household disposable income per capita is $50,063 – barely above what it was at the end of 2011:
The latest figures also showed that the domestic private sector is shrinking – down 0.2% in the past 12 months:
Essentially it means government spending and exports are keeping the economy afloat. Now that is fine as far as it goes, but when you are facing a global crisis that is affecting trade, then it means you need to fall back on your private sector domestic economy.
And right now the domestic private sector is in dire trouble.
It means the base of our economy is much less secure than before the Sars crisis of 2003.
Prior to the Sars impact, our private domestic sector was growing strongly – both households and private investment was strong, and exports contributed little. Now exports and public spending are all important and household consumption and private investment are in the doldrums:
The underlying foundations of the economy are also in a bad way. Over the past three years, annual productivity growth has been lower than ever recorded:
Given productivity growth is the basis for increased living standard, this is a terrible result. So long as productivity remains at such crisis levels, the chances of any increase in wages growth is effectively nil.
Earlier this week, the OECD revised down its prediction for Australia’s economic growth this year from 2.3% to 1.8% and suggested that “additional stimulus measures could be implemented without endangering debt sustainability”. And these figures show such stimulus is greatly needed.
It is clear that despite the treasurer suggesting these figures show the economy “remains resilient and continues to defy all those who seek to talk it down” the underlying aspects of the economy are very weak.
Households and businesses are struggling, and government spending and exports have kept things afloat. Take away exports, as is likely to occur due to the coronavirus, and we find a domestic private economy woefully unready to shoulder the burden.
• Greg Jericho writes on economics for Guardian Australia