On Thursday, Northwick Park hospital in London declared a critical incident when it ran out of intensive care beds after a surge in the number of coronavirus patients coming through its doors. It is a sign that, in London, the spread of Covid-19 is already threatening to overwhelm hospital capacity. Other areas of the country will not be far behind. As infection rates rise, and the death toll inevitably increases, the experiences of other countries tell us that things will get much worse before they get better. We have been asked by the government to adopt a range of social distancing measures that, so far, have been less stringent than those adopted elsewhere. We implore our readers to stay home to save lives.
Scrutiny of the government’s response continues. To ask hard questions about what the government has so far got right and wrong is not to needlessly politicise a crisis: it is to hold our leaders to account in order to ensure that mistakes do not continue. Some aspects of government have inspired great confidence in the last week, others have sowed apprehension and trepidation among scientists and experts.
Why weren’t we ready?
The first set of very real concerns are about the government’s preparedness for the crisis; in the present, and ahead. Only last Monday did Matt Hancock, the health secretary, issue a public call for companies that might be able to assist with ventilator production to contact government. There are now three industrial consortia working quickly to develop a prototype of a medical ventilator that can be manufactured within a month. But the timing of Hancock’s call raises the question: why were these efforts not under way weeks ago, when scientists in China were warning the world of the risk of a deadly pandemic? Similarly, the UK’s lack of coronavirus testing capacity is holding it back from pursuing the strategies of mass testing, contact tracing and isolation that have been so successful in holding down infection and mortality rates in South Korea; there is insufficient capacity even to test frontline NHS and care workers who start to display symptoms, meaning they must immediately self-isolate. Why was testing capacity not expanded in preparation for this pandemic?
We cannot change where we are now: but it is by understanding the answers to these questions that government can ensure similar errors of forward planning do not cost lives. In particular, the government must be thinking ahead about solutions such as ordering, in good time, those manufacturers who can do so to switch to the production of goods that will be critical in helping the country to weather this crisis.
Second, there are real questions about the government’s communications capabilities. In a public health crisis that relies so heavily on changing behaviour in order to control the spread of the outbreak, communication is not an optional extra: it is a critical tool in the fight to save lives. To its credit, Downing Street quickly responded to criticisms of being slow off the mark by introducing a daily press conference last week. But inaccurate news has continued to dribble out from government sources before those briefings; for example, the idea that London would soon see the imposition of a lockdown, which further fuelled panic buying. The government has been to slow to adopt effective messaging to discourage the public from stockpiling.
Worryingly, the prime minister himself does not inspire confidence. He has struck the wrong tone at his press conferences, undermining the seriousness of the government message to stay at home as much as possible, for example suggesting that he hoped to see his mother today on Mother’s Day (a mistake his advisers sought to correct afterwards). His way of speaking to the nation stands in stark contrast to that of Nicola Sturgeon, the first minister of Scotland, and Rishi Sunak, the chancellor, both of whom have struck far more capable, sober and reassuring tones.
Third, there are concerns about the government’s strategy to contain the spread of the virus, which is more lax than those adopted by European countries such as Italy, Spain and France. There appears to be disagreement among scientific and behavioural experts about the extent to which the government’s delays will reduce deaths over the medium term by allowing it to keep stringent restrictions in place for longer when infection rates are even higher than they are now; or whether it is needlessly costing lives. Only time will tell.
But, given our lack of testing capacity, a more stringent approach now could presumably buy more time to increase ventilator, critical care and testing capacity. The government distanced itself from its explicit suggestion that it was consciously trying to develop herd immunity by allowing 60% of the population to become infected in the coming months, once it realised that this would result in an intolerable number of deaths. We need confidence that Boris Johnson will not hesitate to introduce stricter restrictions in order to save lives, regardless of any personal distaste he may feel for temporary curtailments on people’s liberties.
Cometh the chancellor
The government’s economic response, coordinated by Sunak, has been far more confidence-inspiring. We applaud the chancellor for taking swift action to intervene to save jobs and increase the generosity of a benefits system that has been devastated by 10 years of austerity inflicted by his predecessors. The Treasury has announced that it will pay 80% of wages, up to £2,500 a month, for employees that have been furloughed by their employers. In addition, the standard annual allowance of universal credit has been increased by £1,000 for a year, and the link between housing benefit and local rents has been restored. This is a sorely needed package of measures that will run into the tens of billions at least. But as the Resolution Foundation has pointed out, there are significant gaps: there is very limited support for the self-employed, most of whom will have to claim unemployment benefit, and for the two million workers who do not earn enough to qualify for statutory sick pay.
Many families will struggle to cope with the impacts of social distancing on their physical, mental and financial wellbeing. But those who have safe places to isolate are in an immeasurably better position than some of the most vulnerable and destitute in our society. There has been far too little action on protecting homeless people, those locked up in prison and immigration detention, vulnerable children and victims of domestic abuse. The government must urgently make more funding available to allow local authorities to take extraordinary action, for example, to follow the mayor of London’s lead in block-booking hotel rooms in which to temporarily house homeless people.
We all have a role
The government has a critical role to play in minimising the death toll and economic pain that will result from this pandemic. But we cannot simply rely on government to get us through this. It is down to all of us: to businesses and employers, to civil society and to individuals to take government advice seriously and refrain from panic buying, to ensure that critical workers and those at risk are also able to feed their families. Even as some businesses have stepped up – shifting manufacturing to produce hand sanitiser for those in need and donating stock to food banks – others have sacked and made their employees homeless with no notice, and extracted tens of millions in dividends for their owners while going cap in hand to the government for taxpayer support.
Even as some people have thrown themselves into organising local aid groups for those who have to self-isolate, others have sought to profiteer by bulk buying and re-selling goods such as baby formula. Even as millions have heeded government advice to save lives and protect the NHS frontline by staying at home, others packed into pubs on Friday night for their last day of opening, no doubt encouraged by those like the Wetherspoons boss, Tim Martin, who have undermined government messaging to try to protect their business.
Perhaps a crisis of this sort was always going to hold up a mirror to the best and the worst of us. But it is within all of our power to ensure that we look after each other and do all we can manage to minimise the number of lives that will be claimed by this pandemic. Every day, NHS staff and care workers, teachers and nursery workers, delivery drivers and supermarket staff are exposing themselves to greater risk to ensure that people are cared for and can eat while we fight this threat. Every day, older people and the immuno-compromised will be self-isolating, worried about the possibility of contracting a virus that could cost their life. It falls to the rest of us to guard them from harm as much as we can. Stay at home; protect the NHS; save lives.
