Kalyeena Makortoff and Jasper Jolly 

Wall Street jumps to four-week high on signs of slowing Covid-19 spread – as it happened

Rolling live coverage of business, economics and markets as the FTSE 100 and European markets rise
  
  

A man wearing a face mask takes a selfie at the Charging Bull statue on March 23, 2020 near the New Stock Exchange in New York City.
A man wearing a face mask takes a selfie at the Charging Bull statue on March 23, 2020 near the New Stock Exchange in New York City. Photograph: Angela Weiss/AFP via Getty Images

Closing summary

Wall Street is still ticking higher with the S&P 500 up 2.6%, the Dow up more than 3% and the Nasdaq up over 2%. US stock market indices have risen for the second day in a row and hit their highest level since 11 March at the start of trading.

Here’s what else happened today:

  • UK house prices saw no growth in March compared to a month earlier, according to the Halifax house price index - before the coronavirus lockdown forced the property market to shut down
  • Unsurprisingly, UK retail footfall declined by 75.1% in the week beginning 22 March and by 81.4% last week, according to data company Springboard. That’s pretty much a proxy for how many Britons are staying home during the lockdown
  • The airline industry has cut 90% of its flights in Europe, the International Air Travel Association (Iata) has said. Worldwide it is an unprecedented 70% decline

That’s all from us today. We’ll be back tomorrow from about 8am. Stay safe, everyone. -KM

Barclays bosses are also sacrificing pay, though the numbers are small when you look at how much they took home last year.

Barclays CEO Jes Staley is donating around £392,000 of his pay to the bank’s new £100m coronavirus fund aimed at helping vulnerable people impacted by the outbreak.

The bank points out that it is equal to a third of his fixed pay for the next 6 months, but it’s worth noting that it’s much smaller in the grand scheme of things.

Looking at Staley’s total pay packet, that’s only about 6.6% of the £5.9m Staley earned for 2019, which included a bonus of £1.7m.

Chairman Nigel Higgins and CFO Tushar Morzaria will also make similar donations, totalling around £800,000 from all three Barclays bosses.

(A reminder that the Bank of England ordered lenders to cancel plans for cash bonuses for executives in light of the outbreak last week.)

Challenger bank TSB says its entire exec team will forgo bonuses for 2020, so they can give bigger bonuses to frontline staff dealing with customers during the outbreak.

It’s one of the first major UK banks to do so. (Though amongst building societies, Nationwide set the bar when its CEO said he’d take a 20% cut to his pay and pension, worth about £228,000.)

It’s not clear how big TSB will end up setting aside in total , but for context, CEO Debbie Crosbie took home around £185k in bonuses for 2019.

In a statement, Crosbie said:

As an executive committee, it is right to give up these awards, so that we are better able to recognise the work our colleagues on the front line are doing to help customers.

TSB’s move is expected to benefit around 3,000 staff who are in branches, call centres and those dealing with customers on live chat. (That’s about half its workforce)

Final payout decisions will be made at the end of the year.

Updated

Asos is the latest retailer to go cap in hand to investors during the coronavirus outbreak.

The online fashion retailer said on Tuesday that it was “close to finalising a potential equity issuance” and an extension to its debt facilities.

In a statement confirming the move Asos said:

Whilst the company’s financial position remains robust, the duration and impact of the COVID-19 related crisis remains uncertain and ASOS wants to ensure it can weather and exit the current trading environment in a position of strength.

The FTSE 100 has closed higher for the second day in a row.

(That wouldn’t sound so monumental if we weren’t living in such strange times)

Here’s how European stocks looked at the end of the session:

  • FTSE 100 closed up 2%
  • Germany’s DAX rose 2.7%
  • France’s CAC 40 rose 1.96%
  • Spain’s IBEX jumped 3.6%

UK newspaper and magazine publishers face losing up to £600m in revenue from advertising and sales of print copies due to the coronavirus, most of which will not bounce back when the pandemic subsides.

Enders Analysis is forecasting that publishers will see an advertising decline of 30% this year - a hit of £330m for newspaper owners and £120m in the magazine sector - the same level as 2009’s advertising recession.

The pandemic is expected to accelerate the structural challenges already facing the legacy print publishers, namely that advertisers and readers are shifting online, where giants such as Google and Facebook dominate.

The report says:

Publishers should plan for 40% to 50% of what is lost to never reappear

In addition, newsstand sales are forecast to decline by about 50%, modelled across a two month lockdown period, which will cost newspapers £110m in circulation revenues and magazine owners £40m.

Again, the report notes that when News UK was forced to shut the News of the World amidst the phone hacking scandal, the rapid launch of replacement Sun on Sunday only managed to pick up 60% of NoW’s circulation, with 40% of buyers dropping out of newspaper buying entirely.

It looks like there’s been some profit-taking on some UK stocks.

Case in point: the worst performers on the FTSE 100 are currently supermarkets, utilities and pharmaceuticals – sectors that have performed well during the lockdown.

But given that there’s no guarantee that the current market rebound will continue, it’s no surprise that investors might be trying to cash in...while they can.

Updated

Wall Street has lost some steam since the market open.

If the US stock rally continues to cool, it could derail the global rebound.

Connor Campbell, a financial analyst at SpreadEx explains:

Though the Dow Jones initially exploded out of the gate, it did cool slightly as the opening bell receded, taking the edge off of Europe’s gains in the process.

A 400 point rise is nothing to be sniffed at. However, it is noticeable lower than the 800 point surge the Dow posted at the very start of the session, keeping it above 23300, but shy of its 23400, 4-week highs.

He adds:

How Europe ends up opening on Wednesday is likely going to be determined – in part at least – but where the Dow Jones et al. close this evening. If the US markets can build up some momentum, the week’s rebound could continue.

If the energy dissipates even further, however, investors might start to lose a bit of their bravado

With less than an hour to go before the European market close, major stock indexes are still holding on to their gains:

  • FTSE 100 up 2%
  • German Dax up 2.2%
  • French CAC 40 up 1.7%
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB up 1.7%

The scale and speed of the turnaround on US equity markets has been quite something - but then again that is what coordinated fiscal and monetary easing will do for you.

Trillions of dollars have to mean something.

A quick reminder that the US economy is in uncharted territory (at least since proper comparable records began), with unemployment thought to be surging towards record highs.

As historian Adam Tooze notes, even the Great Depression is not expected to match the current joblessness crisis in the world’s largest economy. (Not incidentally, Tooze wrote one of the definitive and highly recommended accounts of the financial crisis.)

But there is a very good reason that investors are still buying: fear of missing out on gigantic returns.

Wall Street stocks jump on second day of gains

US stock market indices have risen for the second day in a row to hit their highest level since 11 March.

At the opening bell the S&P 500 gained 3.3% to reach 2,751 points, the Dow Jones industrial average rose by 3.9%, or 882 points to reach 23,562 points, and the Nasdaq gained 2.8% to hit 8,132.

Equity indices around the world have been buoyed by early signs that the spread of Covid-19 may have slowed - although officials around the world have warned that there is much more to come.

Futures are pointing to a 3.4% gain for the S&P 500, and 3.8% on the Dow Jones industrial average.

The New York Stock Exchange opens on the half hour.

For all of our talk of bull markets earlier, this graphic is perhaps some useful cold water to pour on before we get carried away.

S&P Global’s data shows that none of the major stock markets that it tracks have yet made back their losses from earlier in the year. They said:

Many global equity benchmarks have now posted double digit returns from their crisis lows, but there’s still a long way to go. The S&P 500, for example, is up 19% from its 23 March low, but is still 27% below its 19 February high.

In the UK the figures are 28.1% declines, and a recovery of only 11.1%.

Wuhan, the city where the coronavirus outbreak is believed to have originated, is lifting travel restrictions on Wednesday, according to Chinese state media.

But in a sign of what might be to come across the world, temperature checks and registration will be mandatory for travellers.

Airlines cut 90% of European flights - industry body

The airline industry has cut 90% of its flights in Europe, the International Air Travel Association (Iata) has said. Worldwide it is an unprecedented 70% decline.

Air travel has - for obvious reasons - all but disappeared in many countries, apart from repatriation flights. The lobby group said 25m aviation jobs are at risk because of the crisis.

Airlines have $35bn (£28bn) in tickets that are eligible for refunds after flight cancellations, underlining their desperate need for cash.

But Iata on Tuesday said it had seen tentative signs of a recovery in China, the first country affected by Covid-19.

The UK may be embarking on a big round of debt issuance as it funds the payment of millions of workers’ wages and supports much of the economy through the coronavirus pandemic, but the prospect of big deficits does not appear to have scared off investors.

Demand for UK government bonds was the highest in nearly three years as the Debt Management Office (DMO) sold £3.25bn worth of gilts maturing in January 2023. The offering was more than three times oversubscribed, the strongest demand since July 2017.

And a 40-year gilt maturing in 2057 saw the highest demand since 2005. The DMO received bids of £3.9bn on bonds worth £1.25bn.

Bond prices, which move inversely to yields, have been sustained by the Bank of England’s quantitative easing programme. The Bank hopes that its new plans to buy £200bn in assets will push investors to buy other assets, eventually feeding through to more spending in the real economy.

The oversubscribed bonds are a good sign for the government, which intends to sell £45bn in bonds this month. As Sky News’s Ed Conway says, there is little sign that the Bank of England will have to directly fund the deficit.

If investors are fixated on signs of a peak in the spread of Covid-19 in the world’s largest economies, many less wealthy nations are only at the start of outbreaks.

Whatever happens, the financial effects on developing economies have already been enormous. As this graph (citing the Institute of International Finance) shows, emerging markets have seen $87.5bn (£71.1bn) withdrawn from them faster than even the global financial crisis a decade ago.

And lockdowns in emerging markets such as India (the largest ever) mean that many poorer people will struggle to find work to pay for food. For instance, budget fashion retailer Primark has opened a wage fund to help workers affected by the cancellation of clothes orders.

Not helping developing economies could also boomerang back on richer nations, according to a letter from former world leaders published today. The letter said that in addition to the $8bn of emergency health spending, developing countries would need $150bn to fight the twin medical and economic challenges.

ExxonMobil cancels $10bn of planned investment

And here is the upshot of recent low oil prices: massive oil companies are cutting back investment plans.

US supermajor ExxonMobil has just announced that its spending plans will be reduced by a third this year, a cut of a cool $10bn.

The company, which last month pledged “significant” cuts to spending, said it would reduce 2020 capital expenditure to $23bn. It had previously expected to spend up to $33bn.

Cuts will be concentrated in the US’s Permian basin.

Whether these cuts across the industry are sustained is one of the key questions facing the global environment. Some analysts think the slump in demand caused by the coronavirus will make 2019 “peak oil”, but others think it will bounce back stronger than ever.

You can read more here:

Oil prices have quietly gained 2.5% today - although we are in something of a phony war period as the various producers twist arms behind the scenes to try to make their rivals/cartel partners share the pain of lower production.

Opec+, the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries plus non-members such as Russia, is due to meet on Thursday to try to “rebalance” the oil market (for which read: to try to cut production to sustain prices and their revenues).

There is little doubt that Opec+ wants higher prices - but they also don’t want to give up market share, and so are desperate to include the US and Canada.

US President Donald Trump last week spurred the biggest daily price increase on record in the global oil benchmark, Brent crude futures, after saying Saudi Arabia and Russia had agreed a cut as big as 15m barrels per day - equivalent to almost half their combined annual production.

It quickly became apparent that he was trying to bounce them into a deal that had not yet been agreed, so everything is still to play for this week.

Reuters has reported this tough-talking snippet:

Any final agreement for how much OPEC and its allies, a group know as OPEC+, will cut during their talks on Thursday would depend on the volumes that other producers such as the United States, Canada and Brazil are willing to reduce, an OPEC source said on Tuesday.

The source said that the baseline for the oil cuts has not yet been agreed on among the oil producers, after crude output of some members rose in April following the expiry of an OPEC+ pact on reducing output on 31 March.

US stock market futures indicate that investors are gearing up for another day of strong equity gains on Wall Street.

Futures for the S&P 500 suggest a 3.5% rise is coming whenthe opening bell comes in two hours’ time. Dow Jones industrial average futures point to a 4% increase on the blue-chip index.

All three major indexes rallied more than 7% on Monday after the governors of New York and New Jersey said their states, hot spots of the Covid-19 disease, were showing early signs of a “flattening” of the outbreak.

The Wellcome Trust is calling on big businesses to donate $8bn (£6.4bn) for research into developing diagnostic tests, therapies and vaccines to tackle the coronavirus pandemic.

Jeremy Farrer, the director of the London-based medical research charity, said a huge investment in scientific research was “the only exit strategy” to save millions of lives and drag the global economy out of an inevitable recession.

You can read the full report here:

There’s not much movement on European bourses after the early morning flurry.

Approaching midday the FTSE 100 has gained 2.9% and the Stoxx 600 is up by 2.7%.

The FTSE 250 has gained 6.3% - boosted by Cineworld (whose cost-cutting plans have boosted shares by 35%) and property company Hammerson (which has gained 29%).

A number of financial firms could fail due to Covid-19, putting extra strain on the Financial Services Compensation Scheme, which covers up to £85,000 worth of deposits if a bank or authorised financial firm goes bust.

It’s a stark warning from the Financial Conduct Authority, which made the comment as part of its 2020/21 business plans on Tuesday.

While it may not necessarily relate to high street banks, which the Bank of England has assured are well-capitalised, the FCA and FSCS cover a number of smaller operations ranging from pension providers, to mini bond holders and smaller asset managers. The FCA said:

We recognise that Covid-19 will have a significant impact on the viability of a number of firms. There may be further firm failures as a result, and further recourse to the FSCS. A key focus of our work in the coming weeks and months will be to anticipate where those failures may occur.

The regulator said it was working with firms to ensure that any failures are managed in an “orderly fashion”:

We are putting additional resources into monitoring and analysing firms’ financial positions, so that we can intervene rapidly where necessary. We will continue to discuss how to reduce compensation costs.

Volkswagen is preparing to reopen its plant in Navarra, Spain, on 20 April. The plant manufactures its Polo models, with 270,000 made in 2018.

The world’s largest carmaker suspended production at every single factory across Europe because of the coronavirus lockdowns, in line with every major European carmaker.

However, it is planning for workers to return while wearing masks and gloves once production restarts, after it shut in mid-March.

The plant in northern Spain should reopen with one of its three daily shifts operating during four days in the first week, and the goal is to extend it to two shifts the following week, depending on how well the supply chain works, a spokesman told Reuters.

We noted yesterday that Germany’s Dax is technically in a bull market, having risen more than 20% from its recent low point.

Now the Stoxx 600 index, which tracks the largest companies across Europe including the UK, has also hit bull market territory - at least by one measure. It has gained 22% since its intraday low point on 16 March (although it remains only 14% up from the lowest close).

The FTSE 100 is only one more good day away from a bull market, with an 18% gain since falling below 4,900 on 16 March (and it’s 14.6% above its lowest close). It was last trading up 2.3% at 5,710 points.

Whether a bull market can switch to bear market and back again in the course of a month is a bit of a moot point. These aren’t hard and fast rules - and anyone who thinks they are will have been burned by financial markets over the last decade - but it is handy to show the scale of the moves.

UK retail footfall plummets amid coronavirus lockdown

Footfall across UK retail bricks and mortar destinations declined by 75.1% in the week beginning 22 March and by 81.4% last week, according to data company Springboard.

Supermarkets have seen increased sales as consumers have eaten more meals at home, but the vast majority of shops have been closed during the lockdowns, meaning that footfall figures have become more of a proxy for how many Britons are staying at home.

Springboard suggests that the warm weekend may have nevertheless drawn more people to shops. It said:

The warmer weather brings cause for concern where on Saturday and Sunday, when the weather was sunny, footfall leapt up significantly from the weekend before (by 9.5% on Saturday and by +21.3% on Sunday), despite repeated government warnings on the health and safety implications of visiting public spaces.

London, large cities and coastal towns all saw increases in footfall of more than a third compared to the previous weekend - although ear in mind though that pre-lockdown stockpiling will have caused tricky variations in spending patterns.

Easter weekend will be unrecognisable in the data, Springboard suggests. Normally the Easter shopping spree is only beaten by Christmas.

Google’s UK staff earned an average of £234,000 each last year as the tech firm paid more than £1bn in wages and a share scheme – but only £44m in UK corporation tax.

Google, which increased UK staff numbers by almost 800 to 4,439 last year, footed its first £1bn-plus wage and salary bill for the year to the end of June.

The latest accounts show UK staff received a £441m bonanza in share-based bonuses, thanks to Google’s surging stock price and financial performance in 2019.

You can read the full report here:

The pound has given up some of today’s gains in the past hour, but it is still up by 0.7% against the US dollar.

One pound will buy $1.2315.

The below graph shows that sterling fell sharply after it was announced that Boris Johnson had been moved to intensive care. Johnson remains in intensive care but has not been put on a ventilator, according to Michael Gove.

Dollar weakness has since pushed sterling and other currencies back up. The dollar has lost 0.5% today against a trade-weighted basket of currencies.

Some interesting analysis is coming through on the new ways of working during the coronavirus lockdown - for some people at least.

While many in the services sector (investors, lawyers, and yes, journalists) can work from home unaffected, employees in sectors such as food services, retail and transport have no backup in lockdown. That could exacerbate inequality.

Around 70% of higher earners (over £50,000 a year) are potentially able to work from home, compared to only 32% of workers earning less than £20,000 per year, according to new survey results from PwC for a representative sample of 650 UK workers.

Jing Teow, senior economist at PwC said:

With fewer lower paid workers able to work from home, the negative economic impact of Covid-19 may be greater for lower socio-economic groups, particularly those who work in sectors such as transport, non-food retail and hospitality. There’s a real risk that the ability to work remotely - or not - exacerbates inequality.

For those that can work from home, the experience may well accelerate a shift that was already in evidence.

Companies may also like the idea of cutting down on rent and utility bills if fewer people work in the office - although there is an irony in the fact that many of the companies enabling the move to home-working (such as Apple and Google) invest literally billions of dollars in offices.

UK productivity has remained weak following the financial crisis more than a decade ago.

There is a clear break in the following graph from the Office for National Statistics.

Economists like to note that productivity growth is the most important long-term driver of increases in wealth. So as we start a new decade with a new (and potentially deeper) economic crisis, it’s concerning that there is still so much uncertainty over what exactly is holding back productivity.

UK productivity growth remains weak in decade-long 'productivity puzzle'

UK labour productivity in the last quarter of 2019, as measured by output per hour, grew by 0.3% compared with the same quarter a year ago, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

The ONS said this completes a decade of weak productivity growth, the so-called “productivity puzzle” that economists have struggled to explain.

Productivity in the final quarter was held back by the manufacturing sector, which saw output per hour contract by 1.6%. Construction was responsible for driving the small increase, but the ONS noted that the sector’s output per hour is volatile.

There is a lot of green on European stock markets.

The FTSE 100 is up by 2.8%, and stocks on Germany and Italy’s blue-chip indices have both gained 4.3%.

Do the Halifax housing figures show a last hurrah for the UK’s property market?

That is the expectation of many economists, with the property industry going into a government-mandated freeze and a steep recession underway.

Howard Archer, chief economic advisor at the EY ITEM Club, said:

The expectation has to be that house prices will come under downward pressure from a sharp rise in unemployment and people’s incomes being hit (despite the government’s measures) as well as sharply lower consumer confidence and increased caution.

Once restrictions start to be lifted on people’s movements, housing market activity should progressively pick up. Even so, given the major hit that the economy is taking, the likely substantial rise in unemployment and the hit to many people’s incomes, the housing market looks unlikely to return to the levels seen at the start of 2020 for some time.

The average house price recorded by Halifax was a record high in February. It was little changed in March, at £240,384.

Growth has slowed in recent months, but it is still within the recent range.

Russell Galley, managing director at Halifax, said:

The UK housing market began March with similar trends to previous months, as key market indicators showed a sustained level of buyer and seller activity.

These factors all underlined a positive trajectory and increased momentum in the early part of the year, with confidence rising as political and economic uncertainty eased. However, it’s clear we ended the month in very different territory as a result of the country’s response to the coronavirus pandemic.

On a practical level, most market activity has been paused, with the public rightly following advice to stay at home, and estate agencies, surveyors and conveyancers temporarily closing as a result. With viewings cancelled and movers being encouraged to put transactions on hold, activity will inevitably fall sharply in the coming months. It should be noted that with less data available, calculating average house prices is likely to become more challenging in the short term.

UK house prices flat before coronavirus lockdown

Just in: UK house prices saw no growth in March compared to a month earlier, according to the Halifax house price index - before the coronavirus lockdown forced the property market to shut down.

That was the slowest growth since October, although prices were still 3% higher than in March 2019.

In the latest quarter (January to March) house prices were 2.1% higher than in the preceding three months (October to December).

Any crisis is likely to create winners as well as losers. Plus500 is looking like one of the winners.

The spreadbetting company benefits when more customers trade higher volumes. With almost every single potential customer confined inside, its revenues soared sixfold, or an astonishing 487%, during the first quarter of the year.

The number of active customers rose to 194,024 from 97,921 at the same point last year.

Market volatility also helps spreadbetters, as customers are more tempted to trade when there are big moves to jump on. CMC Markets, a rival, has also seen a boom in trade.

The sector’s profits are reliant on the vast majority of its customers losing money, like the more mainstream gambling industry. Politicians have called on gambling to be restricted during the lockdown, but to no avail so far.

Some notable UK corporate news this morning: first up, Cineworld.

The British cinema operator has closed its entire network of 787 cinemas in 10 countries around the world after coronavirus lockdowns spread.

Directors of the company have agreed to defer their salaries and bonuses.

Cineworld suspended its dividend for the fourth quarter of 2019 and all of 2020, and it is in talks with landlords, film studios and banks about reducing spending and getting access to cash (not surprising given that it has no revenues coming in).

Every effort is being made to mitigate the effect of the closures, to assist our employees and to preserve cash. These efforts include discussions with our landlords, the film studios and major suppliers, as well as curtailing all currently unnecessary capital expenditure. This is a painful but necessary process as before the onslaught of the COVID-19 virus, we were excited and confident about the Group’s future prospects.

And it’s a very strong start on stock markets in Europe as well.

The FTSE 100 has gained 2.9% in the first few minutes. EasyJet and Royal Bank of Scotland are the early leaders. There are no fallers - showing that this is a broad risk-on rally.

Germany’s Dax has gained 3.8%. France’s Cac 40 has gained 2.6%, and Spain’s Ibex has gaind 2.2%.

Introduction: Riskier assets gain ground

Good morning, and welcome to live coverage of business, economics and financial markets.

Asian stock markets have gained this morning, following the lead of US investors who drove massive gains last night on major stock indices.

The Shanghai Stock Exchange composite index and the CSI 300 (which also covers Shenzhen) both rose by more than 2%. Shares in Hong Kong both gained more than 1% and South Korea’s Kospi gained 1.7% - although Australian shares edged down.

Meanwhile, Japan’s broad-based Topix and blue-chip Nikkei indices both gained more than 2% after Shinzo Abe’s government unveiled fiscal stimulus worth more than £800bn to tackle the coronavirus economic slowdowns.

In the UK the news agenda today will of course be dominated by any updates on the condition of Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who spent the night in intensive care with Covid-19.

There has been “no change” in Boris Johnson’s condition this morning, according to Reuters citing two sources close to him. Michael Gove, speaking on BBC radio, just said that he has had oxygen support but has not yet been put on a ventilator.

You can follow any updates as soon as they come out here and on the UK coronavirus blog.

Sterling lost ground last night when the move to intensive care was first announced, but it has rallied this morning in the worldwide move towards riskier assets. That move has been prompted by more positive news on the virus’s trajectory in Europe.

The US dollar has acted as something of a safe haven during the crisis (although it has also been driven higher by companies’ needs for dollars); today, however, the pound has gained 0.6% against the greenback to trade at $1.2300. Against the euro the pound has gained 0.5% to trade at €1.0845.

The agenda

  • 8:30am BST: UK Halifax house price index (March)
  • 9:30am BST: UK labour productivity final reading (fourth quarter 2019)
  • 2pm BST: European finance ministers’ call (press conference at 7pm BST)
  • 3pm BST: Canada Ivey purchasing managers’ index (March)
  • 3pm BST: US job openings and labor turnover survey (JOLTS) (February)
 

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