Closing summary
Europe woke up to news that China’s economy shrunk for the first time on record following the coronavirus outbreak. Data showed Chinese GDP contracted by -6.8% in the first quarter of 2020
There’s now a growing expectation that China will cut its benchmark lending rate as early as Monday, following the 6.8% contraction in first quarter growth
European shares rallied on Friday afternoon on hopes that a drug by Gilead Sciences could help treat Covid-19. The US followed suit, with the S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq all rising rising nearly 2% at the open
The CMA provisionally cleared Amazon’s investment in food delivery company Deliveroo, which said it would be at risk of collapse without the US retail giant’s financial support
The Treasury extended the UK’s job furlough scheme, which will now run an extra month until the end of June to “reflect continuing social distancing measures”
Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey called on UK banks to pick up the pace in getting state-backed loans to companies struggling through the coronavirus crisis.
Thanks very much for reading. We’ll be back on Monday. Stay safe and have a good weekend. -KM
BoE governor tells banks to pick up pace on government loan scheme
Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey has held a virtual press conference with journalists today, where he called on UK banks to pick up the pace in getting state-backed loans to companies struggling through the coronavirus crisis.
Reuters reports that Bailey said banks had to address the “serious strain” on their capacity to deal with a surge in demand for loans, and suggested risk assessments were too slow.
He told reporters:
Notwithstanding the stress that we’re all operating under in terms of the current working environment, they have got to put their backs into it and get on with it, frankly.
Updated
Commenting on the decision to extend the furlough scheme, Chancellor Rishi Sunak said:
With the extension of the coronavirus lockdown measures yesterday, it is the right decision to extend the furlough scheme for a month to the end of June to provide clarity.
It is vital for people’s livelihoods that the UK economy gets up and running again when it is safe to do so, and I will continue to review the scheme so it is supporting our recovery.
UK job furlough scheme extended to the end of June
The Treasury has announced the extension of the UK’s job furlough scheme, which will now run an extra month until the end of June to “reflect continuing social distancing measures”
The scheme, which allows firms to keep employees on the payroll with the government paying cash grants covering 80% of their wages up to £2,500, was originally set for a three month period between March and the end of May.
The Treasury said the Chancellor would “keep the scheme under review and extend it if necessary.”
Shares in Gilead Sciences are also pushing ahead, rising 10% or nearly $8 to $84.88 each.
US stock market open higher, extending European rally
Wall Street is open for trading. Here’s how major indexes are looking at the open:
- Dow is up +2.53%
- S&P 500 is up +2.18%
- Nasdaq is up +1.58%
CMA tentatively clears Amazon stake in Deliveroo amid pandemic stress
NEWSFLASH: The competition watchdog has provisionally cleared Amazon’s investment in food delivery company Deliveroo, which said its business would be at risk of collapse without the US retail giant’s financial support.
Amazon was the lead investor in a $575m (£442m) funding round, last year, which reportedly gave it a 16% stake in Deliveroo.
The Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) said it was originally concerned that the deal would threaten competition, by discouraging Amazon from entering the market on its own.
But the watchdog said it had become clear that the pandemic and resulting lockdown were having a significant impact on the business, and that Deliveroo still relied on continued investment to operate:
Deliveroo recently informed the CMA that the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on its business meant that it would fail financially and exit the market without the Amazon investment. Deliveroo’s submission was supported by evidence from the company’s financial advisers.
The CMA said it was unlikely that other backers would be able to come to Deliveroo’s rescue in the current climate, and concluded that the company’s failure would be worse for the market than letting the Amazon investment go ahead.
The watchdog is now consulting on its provisional ruling and is expected to make a final decision in June.
Updated
More details about the Gilead Sciences trial that is boosting stock markets, from my colleague Rob Davies.
Optimism surrounding a potential new treatment for Covid-19 has boosted the FTSE100 stock index, amid claims that a drug called remdesivir has spurred rapid recovery in 113 patients.
A University of Chicago hospital participating in a study of the antiviral medication, made by US firm Gilead Sciences, reportedly found that nearly all patients suffering fever and respiratory symptoms were discharged within a week. The report, by healthcare publication Stat News, spurred hopes among investors that lockdowns around the world could be eased.
The University of Chicago recruited 125 people into a clinical trial, according to the report, 113 of whom tested positive for Covid-19, with all of them receiving daily remdesivir doses. Two patients died but most of the rest have already been discharged after their symptoms eased significantly.
In a video obtained by Stat News, Kathleen Mullane, the infectious disease specialist overseeing the study, said it was hard to draw conclusions because remdesivir is not being compared against results from a group taking a placebo drug.
But certainly when we start [the] drug, we see fever curves falling.
We have seen people come off ventilators a day after starting therapy. So, in that realm, overall our patients have done very well.
Most of our patients are severe and most of them are leaving at six days, so that tells us duration of therapy doesn’t have to be 10 days. We have very few that went out to 10 days, maybe three.
You can read the full story here:
NEWSFLASH (at least for the economic obsessives among us): The Office for National Statistics has said it will delay the release of GDP and retail sales data during the Covid-19 outbreak.
The May release of GDP data will be delayed by one day, the June data by two days, according to Reuters.
The ONS has said that the disruption caused by the pandemic mean they need a little extra time for quality assurance of some of their data before publication.
European stocks extend gains on hopes of Covid-19 drug
European stocks have extended their gains amid optimism over the Gilead Sciences trials.
The FTSE 100, which started the day up around 2.5% is now trading higher by around 3.5%
Updated
The US drug company said to be developing a medicine that could help battle the coronavirus outbreak is set to open higher this afternoon.
Gilead Sciences is up 12.5% in pre-market trading at around $86.38 per share, after reports suggested that its investigational drug remdesivir may be effective against Covid-19.
But Jasper Lawler, head of research at London Capital Group, has warned against getting too hopeful about its prospects:
The report that set off the gains said that early data on Gilead’s coronavirus medicine Remdesivir is ‘very encouraging’. The early data referred to is a clinical trial of 125 patients at the University of Chicago with coronavirus who were all given Remdesivir and have nearly all survived with a speedy recovery within a week.
If we’re playing devil’s advocate to the bullish reaction – an important word here ‘is ‘early’. It was a small trial and there was no control group so there’s plenty of room for error.
ITN, the producer of news for ITV, Channel 4 and Channel 5, has furloughed staff, frozen senior manager and cut salaries for top bosses by 20% to manage costs during the coronavirus lockdown.
Plans to furlough a “small number” of staff will mainly impact the sport and commercial production departments, while some staff have been asked to work part-time.
A company email to staff said:
These talented and hardworking teams have been hardest hit simply because of the economic downturn in the sectors in which they work.
Top management, including chief executive Anna Mallett and the ITN board, are to reduce their salaries by a fifth for the period of the government lockdown “to help with the financial challenge”.
The cost saving measures also include a recruitment “pause” and halting investment in some projects.
The appointment of BlackRock, the world’s largest investor, to carry out a study on potential new environmental rules for banks by the European Commission, faces scrutiny from members of the European Parliament.
Three MEPs have written to the commission asking it how it intends to avoid a conflict of interest, given that BlackRock holds huge stakes in both fossil fuel companies and the banks.
It comes after the Guardian reported that environmental campaigners were concerned about the potential conflict of interest. Urgewald said the appointment was “like letting the fox guard the henhouse”.
The MEPs from the Greens/European Free Alliance – Rasmus Andresen, Monika Vana and Jutta Palus – asked the commission to also consider how BlackRock’s control of stakes in power plant operators fitted with plans to reduce carbon dioxide emissions.
BlackRock had $7.43tn (£5.97tn) in assets under management on 31 December (before the coronavirus pandemic caused asset values to fall). The majority of those assets are in products that track equity and bond indices, meaning the company by default controls large stakes in many of the world’s biggest companies.
BlackRock previously told the Guardian that it was honoured to be selected by the commission.
China’s economy will do well to grow at all in 2020.
That’s the stark warning from Yue Su, an economist focusing on China at The Economist Intelligence Unit.
She says China will continue to struggle this year as its trading partners around the world grapple with their own Covid-19 recessions.
Su says:
The GDP contraction in January-March will translate into permanent income losses, reflected in bankruptcies across small companies and job losses.
In addition, the international spread of the pandemic will push the country’s major trading partners into recession, leading to a slump in exports in the second quarter and knock-on impacts on domestic investment and employment.
China’s economy will do well to grow at all in 2020 as a whole.
The stock market rally is set to continue stateside, with futures pointing to gains on Wall Street:
- Dow futures are up +2.7%
- S&P 500 futures are up +2.4%
- Nasdaq futures are up +1.8%
Updated
Investors poised for China rate cut after Q1 GDP plunge
There’s a growing expectation that China will cut its benchmark lending rate as early as Monday, following the 6.8% contraction in first quarter growth.
A Reuters survey shows that all 52 traders and analysts polled are expecting a cut to China’s Loan Prime Rate on Monday in order to reduce financing costs for companies that are struggling to get back on their feet after the pandemic.
If their hunch is right, it would be the second cut to the benchmark so far this year.
Jacqueline Rong, a senior China economist at BNP Paribas in Beijing, said:
Judging from high frequency economic data and progress of work resumption in April, we believe the central bank will continue its easing stance for the time being despite some signs of loose liquidity in the banking system.
Estate agency chain Foxtons has announced plans to raise £22m through the creation of new shares to shore up its finances while the coronavirus crisis continues.
The company, which has most of its branches in London, says the money will pay off existing credit and give it liquidity to weather a long lockdown followed by a slow recovery in the housing market.
Soon after the lockdown began ministers said that people should not be buying and selling homes as usual, causing the market to almost grind to a halt. Agents are offering virtual property tours, but uncertainty over the economy is likely to deter potential buyers for some time to come.
Foxtons said that in “a reasonable worst case scenario period of lockdown restrictions in London until the end of August 2020” revenues would be 78% lower than in the same period last year.
The agency has taken steps to cut costs, including furloughing 750 employees and cutting salaries for those earning above £40,000. It says 80% of those asked to take a cut had agreed.
It has also told HMRC that it will delay paying February’s tax and national insurance contributions on staff earnings for at least a month.
DATA FLASH: Eurozone inflation slowed in March to 0.7% year-on-year, confirming earlier estimates.
That compares to a 1.2% rise in February, and the European Central Bank’s target of below but close to 2%.
Time to catch up on Europe’s car market and the news isn’t pretty.
Passenger car sales across the 27 EU states plunged 55.1% in March to to 567,308 vehicles, after the vast majority of European dealerships shuttered in the second half of the month as the coronavirus spread across the continent.
That’s according to data from the European Auto Industry Association (ACEA).
Of the 27 EU markets, Italy was the hardest hit, with registrations falling by 85.4%. But demand also tumbled in France and Spain, falling 72.2% and 69.3%, respectively.
The combined figure rises to 853,077 vehicles when you combine the European Union, Britain and the European Free Trade Association (EFTA) together.
In the UK alone, car sales tumbled 44.4% to 254,684 last month.
The European stock rally is holding firm.
Even on the FTSE 100 just six stocks are trading in negative territory, and the worst decline is no more than 2%.
We’ll see how long this keeps up...
Updated
China’s economic trajectory post-Covid-19 is being watched closely, with some hoping it can serve as a example of what to expect in the months ahead.
But Hugh Briscoe, a global fixed income portfolio manager at Goldman Sachs Asset Management, says China is unlikely to be the best model for western nations who have taken a very different approach to handling the coronavirus outbreak.
He says:
Investors are focused on the pace at which economic activity will return to normal given China’s prominence in the global economy; it is the world’s largest trading partner. China’s recovery is also being closely watched given its potential to serve as a template for growth paths elsewhere.
However, there are several reasons to be wary of drawing parallels. First, China’s covid-19 outbreak and in turn activity restrictions were largely confined to Wuhan. By contrast, mitigation measures in key advanced economies have been country-wide.
Second, China’s restrictions were more onerous; this influenced the progression of its virus outbreak and in turn the duration for which activity was curbed. Third, risks of a second wave of infections remain, with reported cases in China in recent weeks largely being imported.
Nonetheless, epidemiological and economic developments in China are useful to monitor, even if their magnitudes differ from what we will likely observe in core markets such as the US, Euro area and UK.
Updated
China has reported more than 3,000 deaths and 80,000 infections from the coronavirus. Even as Chinese authorities over the past month have pushed to restart the economy, fears of new infections have forced some parts of the country to enact new restrictions. China has closed its borders to almost all foreigners arriving from abroad and limited international flights.
Depressed demand from overseas is likely to hit the Chinese economy further. China’s first quarter contraction follows declines in 2019, which saw the Chinese economy expand at its slowest pace in almost 30 years, the result of slowing consumption, a pull back on debt-fuelled growth, and a protracted trade war with the US.
Analysts polled by Reuters estimate China’s yearly growth for 2020 will slow to 2.5% from 6.1% last year, the weakest pace since the last year of the Cultural Revolution.
You can read Lily Kuo’s full story here:
US crude futures tumble to $18.87
But not every market is on the rise, with US crude futures falling to their lowest level since 2002 at $18.87.
While some economies like Germany and Spain are testing the waters in sending citizens back to school or work, there seems to be some pessimism about how long the road will be for the US economy as a whole (as well as how effective the Opec+ production cut deal will be in the interim). And with over 22 million US residents now jobless, there are fears over the trajectory for US domestic demand.
Despite initial excitement after Donald Trump released guidelines for how the US would re-open the economy, there were some important caveats that mean the president would ultimately defer to state governors on when and how to return their states to normal.
Stephen Inness, chief global markets strategist at AxiCorp says:
Oil markets found baseline support from President Trump’s US reopening plan. But with NYMEX crude prices closing ominously below the psychological WTI $20 per barrel for the second day running; it’s suggesting downside risk remains the dominant factor.
If oil producers fail to address the medium-term structural oversupply situation adequately, oil prices could stay volatile, with risks skewed to the downside for the next few months.
Updated
Here we go: Germany’s DAX opens higher by +2.9%
And we’re off! European indexes are trading higher across the board.
We’re still waiting for a print from the German DAX, but here’s how we’re looking so far:
FTSE 100 is up +2.5%
France’s CAC 40 is up +1.5%
Spain’s IBEX is up +2.6%
Get ready for a rally at the market open:
Updated
Introduction: Stocks jump despite Chinese economy shrinking for first time on record
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.
Europe has woken up to news that China’s economy shrunk for the first time on record following the coronavirus outbreak.
Data showed that Chinese GDP for the first quarter - covering the three months from January-March - came in at -6.8%, which is the first contraction since records began. That is worse than economists expected, with a Reuters poll having forecasted a contraction of -6.5%.
But markets aren’t fazed. Stocks in Asia shrugged off the news, with the Shanghai Composite closed up 0.7%, Japan’s Nikkei 225 rising 3.1% and Australia’s ASX up 1.8%. Europe is also called higher.
Some investors seem more intrigued that American biotech firm Gilead may have found a potential drug to treat coronavirus. Others seem to be taking the view that the data could have been much, much worse.
However, there is the age-old concern that the figures may not be telling the whole story, and many economists still question the reliability of China’s data - especially when you drill down into indicators like retail sales, which were hammered after shops were ordered to close during the worst of the outbreak.
Ipek Ozkardeskaya, a Senior Analyst at Swissquote Bank, explains:
Now, of course, if we compare this number with the expectation of over 30% slump in developed economies following a similar shutdown and confinement period, it is possible that there may have been some adjustment on data, and the data doesn’t reflect the real extent of the economic calamity -
Other data showed that the slump in Chinese retail sales didn’t improve as much as expected in March, down from -20.5% to -15.8% versus -10% penciled; the fixed asset investment fell 16.1% y-o-y against -15.0% forecasted by analysts and -24.5% printed a month earlier.
But, the contraction in the industrial production was only 1.1% in March, versus-7.3% expected by analysts and -13.5% printed month earlier, meaning that the Chinese production picked up at a better-than-expected speed, which is little surprising for Xi’s ambitious economy.
The agenda
- 10.00am BST: Eurozone inflation for March
Updated