Donald Trump’s threat to “shoot down” Iranian gunboats if they harass US ships drove the oil price’s recovery today, says Connor Campbell of SpreadEx.

It would be nice for oil’s push higher to come from a less troublesome catalyst.

Donald Trump’s order for the navy to ‘shoot and destroy’ Iranian gunboats that ‘harass’ American ships cause some investors to return to the black stuff, lifting Brent Crude back towards $21 per barrel with a near 8% comeback. This after it had at one point fallen under $16 per barrel overnight.

Stocks are turning higher in late trading in London... pushing the FTSE 100 up by 132 points or 2.3% today.

Oil giants are leading the way, with BP and Royal Dutch Shell both up over 6% - following the rally in crude prices.

Deutsche Bank have dug back through 150 years of data, and concluded that the oil price had never turned negative - before Monday’s remarkable tumble in US crude prices.

Jim Reid and Nick Burns write:

In nominal terms, it’s not a surprise to see that, over the 150 years for which we have data, there’s never been a negative price print before. This is stunning as it basically says that a barrel of oil earlier this week was effectively cheaper than it was in 1870.

Those upbeat comments from Steve Mnuchin may help stocks recover in New York.

The Dow Jones industrial average has jumped by 406 points, or 1.7%, at the start of trading - back to 23,424 points.

US Treasury secretary Stephen Mnuchin has now weighed in.

Speaking on Fox, Mnuchin predicted that oil would recover to $30 per barrel by August, and that “most if not all” of the US economy would be open by the summer.

The White House is also talking up the prospects of the US economy re-opening in next couple of months, despite concerns the this could trigger a second wave of infections:

Oil prices are moving higher across the board - with US crude oil for June delivery up 13% at over $13 per barrel.

I’m not quite clear what’s driving the rally, but it may be partly related to this tweet.....

After two days of losses, the New York stock exchange is expected to rebound today.

The Dow Jones industrial average is up over 1% in pre-market trading, or 280 points - having lost around 1,000 points in the last two days.

But, there’s a lot of anxiety beyond Wall Street. A Gallup poll released last night shows that 25% of employed Americans think they’re likely to be laid off in the next 12 months. That’s on top of the 22 million people who have filed jobless benefit claims in the last four weeks.

Just in: Turkey’s central bank has cut interest rates, as it responds to the Covid-19 crisis.

The benchmark interest rate has been lowered to 8.75%, from 9.75% -- twice as big a cut as the markets expected.

Amid volatile trading in the oil market, Brent crude is now UP for the day -- back around $20 per barrel.

Online fashion group Boohoo has seen a surge in casual clothes and pyjamas as Britons hunker down during the pandemic.

Carol Kane, the joint chief executive of Boohoo, says demand for “athleisure wear” such as hoodies, jogging pants and nightwear has all jumped in recent weeks, making up for a slump in sales of smarter outfits like dresses.

Boohoo is also eyeing up struggling rivals, who might be available cheaply in the current crisis.

The Covid-19 lockdown risks increasing the existing economic divide within the eurozone.

A new report from ING economists Bert Colijn and Carsten Brzeski points out that the impact of the lockdown measures varies across Europe.

They’ve analysed Google’s COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports, which show how visits to groceries, shops and workplaces have fallen this year. They show that Italy and Spain have seen the biggest impact, followed by Frnace, while the Netherlands and Germany have seen less disruption.

So with some countries easing the lockdown measures, while others remain locked down for longer, the risk of an “asymmetric recovery” has increased.

They explain:

Covid-19 is often labelled as a symmetric shock hitting the eurozone economy. While this is correct regarding the nature of the shock, differences in the length and depth of the lockdown measures seem to have a rather asymmetric impact on the eurozone economy. Currently, a pattern seems to be emerging that the eurozone countries which experienced the sharpest impact on public (and economic) life will be the last countries exiting the lockdown measures.

Add to this significant differences across countries regarding the size of the fiscal reaction and there is a clear risk of an asymmetric recovery in the eurozone.

With oil at its lowest levels this century, analysts are warning that prices will keep sliding unless there are significant output cuts soon.

Rystad Energy’s head of oil markets, Bjornar Tonhaugen says:

“Be prepared for more surprises in this broken oil market.”

The astonishing plunge in US crude prices on Monday night, to -$40 per barrel, shows the perils of excess supply. But the major producers haven’t yet responded with fresh cuts.

Yesterday, Donald Trump pledged support for the US energy sector, where hundreds of thousands of jobs are at risk.

But that would mean shale producers keep pumping - despite the economics being against them.

Andreas Steno Larsen of Nordea Markets tweets that this is helping to push oil down.

Here’s our news story on today’s drop in inflation:

European stock markets are all up this morning, despite the oil price slump.

Rachel Winter, associate investment director at Killik & Co, says the rally follows a Financial Times report that suggests the peak for UK Covid-19 deaths was April 8th.

“The FTSE is up just under 1% this morning following comments from professors at both Oxford and Cambridge universities suggesting that the UK may have passed its coronavirus peak. The market is up despite further falls in oil prices, with Brent crude now below $18 per barrel – that’s a big fall from 2014 when it was over $100 per barrel.

“UK inflation numbers came out this morning showing that prices have fallen since last month. The fall was largely blamed on a heavy discounting in the clothing market given the lack of demand while everyone stays at home. Clothing retailers are really suffering right now – Primark for example, has said it has basically sold nothing because it doesn’t operate online and its stores are all closed.”

Posh tonic maker Fevertree appears to be coping well with the coronavirus pandemic.

Shares in Fevertree have jumped 13% this morning after it reported “strong” demand from customers in shops and supermarkets (the ‘off-trade’) in recent weeks.

It says:

With regards to trading, while the On-Trade sector is facing an extremely challenging period, we have seen strong sales in the Off-Trade in many of our markets both from the initial buying ahead of lockdown but also in recent weeks as at home consumption has remained robust.

Fevertree also reported a 10% rise in revenues in 2019, although profits after tax fell 5%. It also reported tougher competition in the UK, where rivals have also moved into the high-end mixers market.

Laura Ashley is reopening its Texplan factory in Wales to make medical scrubs and cubicle curtains for the NHS.

The group, which fell into administration last month, will make 3,000 a week of the NHS workwear outfits which are worn underneath personal protective equipment.

Under the deal with Alexandra Workwear, a British provider of uniforms, and Laura Ashley’s administrators at advisory firm PwC, 41 Laura Ashley workers have volunteered to return to its factory in Newtown, Wales.

Linda Andrew, a Laura Ashley supervisor who is returning from furlough to work on the project said:

“We’ve experience of making beautiful handmade curtains for Laura Ashley, but it has been a while since we made garments here in Wales. But we’re an adaptable bunch so I’m confident we’ll be able to turn our hand to sewing scrubs.”

Laura Ashley continues to trade via its website while administrators attempt to secure a buyer for the British brand.

Today’s inflation report shows that air fares rose by 5.3% during March (based on flights departing on March 17).

By that stage, the Covid-19 pandemic was already hitting the sector - Donald Trump announced his ban on European Union flights to the US on March 12, and added the UK on the 14th.

Many people have seen flights and holidays cancelled since - and are struggling to get refunds.

Our transport correspondent Gwyn Topham explains:

All of the UK’s biggest airlines and most big holiday companies are systematically breaking the law by denying timely refunds to customers for travel cancelled during the pandemic, researchers have found.

Consumer groups have warned that the sector risks permanently losing public confidence in booking travel, with Which? finding 20 of the UK’s largest operators are illegally withholding refunds that should be paid within 14 days.

Although stock markets are up this morning, oil is still sharply down.

Brent crude is changing hands for $17.62 per barrel right now, down 9% today, having hit 21-year lows overnight.

That’s a drop of almost 40% this week, and 70% this year, as traders price in the risk of a deep global recession which leaves oil producers struggling to store crude.

Neil Wilson of Markets.com says crude prices are a good measure of the economic mess we’re in.

I’d say oil markets are telling us how bad things are right now, while equity markets tell us how good or bad investors hope/fear things will be next year.

After falling around 3% yesterday, European stock markets have risen slightly at the start of trading.

The FTSE 100 has gained 38 points, or 0.7%, to 5678 points.

Irish building supplies firm CRH are the top riser, up 4.5%, after it announced a cost-cutting programme this morning and predicted it would benefit from government stimulus plans.

But oil companies are under pressure again. BP has dropped 1%, following the 15% plunge in Brent crude this morning to a 21-year low.

Alcohol and tobacco prices rose in March -- partly because the duty on tobacco was raised in Rishi Sunak’s budget last month.

Petrol prices fell by 5.1 pence per litre between February and March 2020, the inflation report shows.

The ONS explains:

Global prices for crude oil have fallen sharply in response to reduced global demand during the COVID-19 pandemic and the failure of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) to agree to cut supply in early March 2020.

Consumer demand for motor fuels has likely also reduced in light of measures taken to curb the spread of COVID-19, including increased working from home and broader travel restrictions.

The cost of a “wide range of women’s, men’s and children’s clothing items” fell in March, pulling inflation down.

The ONS suspects people began shunning the shops to avoid catching coronavirus - or because they were focused on stockpiling essential items instead.

Sales patterns this year are likely to have been influenced by the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. Although prices were collected around 17 March, before the formal government lockdown was introduced on 23 March, consumer behaviours and retailers’ expectations of that behaviour might have changed as a result of social distancing and other precautions.

A number of factors might have contributed to the change, including less browsing in physical stores, people spending more time at home where they might have been less interested in clothing, and a shift in spending patterns towards other necessities such as food and cleaning products.