The latest wages figures released by the bureau of statistics is one of the last lot of “normal” data that is relatively unaffected by the coronavirus. As such it serves as a good reminder that even before the virus hit, the economy was stuttering.

The March quarter wage price index is the last data that the ABS will release outside of next month’s national accounts that mostly shows little sign of the coronavirus.

Wages are “sticky” because most workers have six-month or year-long contracts or are in permanent positions covered by multi-year agreements. But even then they do respond to the labour market and so once the impact of the surge in unemployment flows through we are likely to see a steep fall in wages growth.

But as it is, wages growth was already falling.

The March quarter marked the fifth consecutive quarter where the trend annual growth of private sector wages fell – this time down from 2.3% in December to 2.2%, while overall wage growth was down to 2.1%:

The slow growth came from all sectors – both private and public workers are experiencing slower wage growth than they were six months or a year ago.

If you were trying to argue, as did the finance minister, Mathias Cormann, this week on ABC’s 7.30, that “the fundamentals of the Australian economy were sound as we went into this crisis”, you would not turn to wages growth for proof.

The only industries that had wages growing faster in March this year than they were 12 months earlier were construction, real estate, arts and recreation, and health:

It will likely be the last time for a while those industries will see any improvement.

Of course the coronavirus has smashed the economy, but these figures do not reflect that – they just reflect a weak economy with slightly rising unemployment.

The 2.1% growth is perfectly in line with what you would expect given the relationship between unemployment and wages growth since 2016:

Whereas once an unemployment rate of 5.2% would have seen wages growing at around 3.7%, since the end of 2016 a clear shift has occurred. The 2.1% wages growth is consistent with what we have observed over the past three and a half years.

And it remains perfectly consistent with the long-term relationship between underemployment and wages:

To get to 3% annual wages growth we would need the underemployment rate to fall to around 7.5% – a level not seen since 2013, and now not likely to be seen within this decade.

At this point we should perhaps pause and say a small eulogy for the wage-growth predictions in December’s mid-year economic and fiscal outlook.

They were utterly absurd even then; now they just look sad:

The government was predicting wages growing at 3% again by the middle of 2023, despite also suggesting unemployment would not fall below 5%.

Yes, Josh Frydenberg would have had you believe that despite the labour market not improving over the next three years, employers would start offering better wage rises.

The coronavirus has destroyed these predictions, but it has also given the government an easy excuse.

However, let us not be fooled – the predictions for wages growth and even those for budget surpluses were extremely fanciful and were shown to be so even before the virus shut down the economy.

That unemployment and underemployment are now set to soar means wages growth will become somewhat of a secondary issue in the eyes of many. But that does not mean we should forget the role it has – especially its importance in bolstering household incomes and generating economic growth.

Already we are hearing governments talk of the need for austerity and freezing wages of public sector workers including for teachers and nurses. That will only lead to a vicious circle of reduced wages growth in the private sector, lower economic activity and then lower government revenue.

We are already about to see wages growth fall off a cliff – there is no need for the government to give it a push on the way down.

The wages data shows we entered this crisis with a weakening labour market, and if that is what the government believes we need to snap back to, then workers are unlikely to see improved wages growth even once the virus is under control.

• Greg Jericho writes on economics for Guardian Australia