One in ten Australians who have lost their jobs during the coronavirus crisis fear they will never work again according to the latest Guardian Essential poll – and a significant majority of the sample worries the Covid-19 outbreak in China is worse than official statistics suggest.
The latest survey of 1,073 respondents suggests the economic shock caused by the pandemic has shaken people’s faith in their short and medium term labour market prospects, with low optimism about wages growth and prospects for promotion once the crisis has passed.
Rising levels of concern are unsurprising. More than six million Australians are currently on the jobkeeper wage subsidy and more than a million are on unemployment benefits, known as jobseeker, which has been effectively doubled during the crisis.
Treasury is forecasting that unemployment will peak at 10%, and the Australian Bureau of Statistics last week reported that around 2.7 million people, or one in every five person employed in March, either left employment or had their hours reduced between March and April.
States and territory governments are gradually easing the public health restrictions which led to lockdowns of non-essential services in March – lockdowns that triggered mass unemployment. While the staged return of retail and hospitality will see many people resume employment, there are concerns the gradual return to normalcy could trigger a second wave of infections in Australia. The chief medical officer Brendan Murphy said recently that prospect kept him up at night.
The latest survey indicates that less than one in five people in the survey who have lost their jobs because of Covid-19 believe they’ll be back in work straight away (18%) once the crisis has passed. Around a third of the sample (36%) believe it will take them a long time to find paid work once the economy begins to recover and 10% worry they will never find paid work again.
The cohort that has remained employed during the crisis is bleak about their personal prospects during the economic recovery. Just 21% agree either strongly or somewhat that they will get a pay rise after the worst has passed, and only 22% think there will be an option for promotion. Just under half the sample thinks their wages will not keep place with inflation, while 19% of the sample thinks wages growth will return during the recovery.
The group in the survey who were already unemployed before Covid-19 hit are also pessimistic. Just under half, 43% of people in this category, believe they won’t be able to find a well-paying job in their field at their level of experience, and less than half the group believes there will be appropriate jobs for them.
Anxiety in the survey is not limited to people’s material circumstances. It also extends to China, and whether the regime is suppressing relevant information about the virus.
A solid majority, 77%, agrees with the statement: “The outbreak in China is actually much worse than the official Chinese statistics show”. Men and women in the sample hold this view almost equally. Voters aged over the age of 55 are more likely to hold that view than voters aged between 18 and 34.
A solid chunk of respondents (39%) also agrees with the statement: “The Covid-19 virus was engineered and released from a Chinese laboratory in Wuhan”. An equal number of respondents rejects that idea. Again the split between men and women is almost identical, but younger voters are more likely to believe the virus started in a lab than voters aged over 55.
The Australian government has pushed back at persistent claims from the Trump administration the coronavirus may have originated in a Wuhan. The government has also determined that a “dossier” giving weight to the theory is not a Five Eyes intelligence document, but an open source compilation.
Survey respondents this week were asked questions about the various conspiracy theories that have accompanied the global pandemic, with substantial majorities rejecting many of the high rotation hypotheses. More than 70% disagreed with the statement: “The number of Covid-19 deaths have been exaggerated by the media and governments to scare the population”. 20% of respondents thought that was true.
More than 70% (71%) disagreed with the statement: “Bill Gates played a role in the creation and spread of Covid-19”. 13% of the sample thought that was true. Close to 80% (79%) disagreed with the statement: “The Covid-19 virus is not dangerous and is being used to force people to get vaccines”. 13% thought that was true.
More than 70% (75%) disagreed with the statement: “The 5G wireless network is being used to spread the Covid-19 virus”. 12% thought that was true.
This week’s survey indicates the crisis has changed public attitudes. Perhaps unsurprisingly, there has been a surge in support for health workers. Over half of respondents now feel more positive towards health and care workers (56%).
People are also more sympathetic to people struggling with their mental health. Around one in five respondents also feels more positive towards people who are unemployed (21%) and homeless (21%).
The survey continues to suggest Australians remain sanguine about experimenting with winding back the lockdowns. Just a quarter (25%) of the sample now feels it is too soon to consider easing restrictions. Women and voters aged over 55 are more worried about the end of lockdowns than other cohorts. It also indicates people remain happy with the performance of their governments – federal and state – during the crisis.
The margin of error for the Guardian Essential poll is plus or minus 3%.