Closing summary
Time for a quick recap.
Another blizzard of economic data has shown that the world economy is being battered by the Covid-19 outbreak, but a slow recovery may
In the UK, factory and service sector bosses reported that activity remained very weak, with output slumping, new orders much lower than usual and unemployment up. But the pace of the decline did ease, with the composite PMI rising to 28.9, from 13.8 [50 = stagnation].
Economists warned that the recovery will be slow and bumpy, and unlikely to resemble anything like a V.
Eurozone companies reported a similar picture - with Germany coping relatively well and the periphery (including Italy and Spain) suffering a sharper slowdown.
In America, another 2.4 million people filed unemployment benefit claims -- pushing the total number of jobs lost over 38m. The US PMI report also showed a slump in activity, but with some signs that activity is picking up as the lockdown eases.
Japan, though, reported that exports slumped by over 20% last month, which is the worst drop since the 2009 recession.
Investors are fretting that relations between the US and China are deteriorating, with Donald Trump accusing Xi Jinping of pushing a “disinformation and propaganda attack” on the West.
With China threatening to hit back, European stock markets ended the day lower.
Budget airline easyJet announced plans to resume domestic flights within the UK, and within France, as it tries to resume operations. Hotel operator Whitbread launched a £1bn cash call to shore up its finances and to expand through the crisis.
Here’s our latest stories:
Goodnight. GW
That late selloff came after China threatened to hit back against America if it imposes sanctions over the coronavirus pandemic.
The spokesman for the country’s parliament, Zhang Yesui, told reporters that Beijing would retaliate if the US introduced legislation last week to give Donald Trump the power to sanction China.
Zhang indicated that Trump was trying to cover up his own mistake over the pandemic saying:
“We firmly oppose these Bills, and will make a firm response and take countermeasures based on the deliberation of these Bills.
“It is neither responsible nor moral to cover up one’s own problems by blaming others. We will never accept any unwarranted lawsuits and demands for compensation.
After a late stumble, Europe’s stock markets have ended the day lower than they started it.
- FTSE 100: down 51 points or 0.9% at 6,015
- Germany’s DAX: down 157 points or 1.4% at 11,065
- French CAC: down 51 points or 1.1% at 4,445
- Italian FTSE MIB: down 126 points or 0.75% at 17,087
Back in the UK, shoe retailer Clarks has joined the ranks of firms cutting jobs due to the pandemic.
More than 900 head office staff will go, as the Covid-19 lockdown hits sales hard, on top of the problems on the high street.
Our US business editor Dominic Rushe reports that some Americans have been struggling to sign on for unemployment benefit, due to huge demand:
Aya Rabbaa, 19, lost her job at an iHop restaurant in Madison, Wisconsin, eight weeks ago and only received her benefits three days ago. “I would call and hang on hold for hours or they would hang up,” she said.
The college student relied on her wages to pay her expenses and said it had been a real struggle while she waited on the money. “They need to do something,” she said. “People are hungry, people are stressed. Do we live in a third world country or what?”
Now Wisconsin is open for business again after its supreme court struck down the state’s stay-at-home order. Rabbaa said she was worried about going back to work if and when the restaurant opens for business. “I’d go back but I am scared,” she said. “It’s still not safe. If I get it then the customers will get it and if they have it, I will get it.”
After that positive start, the US stock market is turning south.
The Dow has now dipped by 193 points, or 0.8%, to 24,381. Oil has shed its early gains too, and European markets are in the red too as the closing bell approaches....
Bonds are strengthening, though, pushing the yield on British five-year debt below zero!
Our economics editor Larry Elliott says today’s PMI reports show we face a long trudge back to recovery, writing:
Well, do you want the good news or the bad news?
The goods news – both for the UK and for the rest of Europe – is that the worst is over. April marked the bottom of the slump triggered by the response to the Covid-19 pandemic. Provided there is no second wave of infection (a pretty hefty qualification, admittedly) last month was as bad as it gets.
The bad news is that a return to pre-crisis levels of activity is a long way off and, as things stand, will be measured in years not months. There is more chance of spotting a yeti in the Himalayas than there is of a sighting of the equally elusive V-shaped recovery....
More here:
US output falls steeply amid Covid-19 crisis
Just in: America’s economy is suffering another slump in output this month as the Covid-19 downturn persists.
Data firm Markit has reported that the US economy is still contracting at a desperately sharp pace, although slightly slower than in April.
Its latest survey of purchasing managers found that production and new orders have tumbled at US factories. Service sector firms are suffering sharp falls in orders due to weak domestic and foreign client demand. Job cuts, unsurprisingly, were deep.
With things slightly less dire than in April, Markit’s US ‘composite PMI’ has risen to 36.4, from 27.0 in April. That indicates another very sharp contraction (50 would be stagnation).
Markit explains:
Although the overall contraction in new business eased in May, it was still the second-steepest in the series history. Firms continued to report significant decreases in client demand as customers further postponed the placement of orders.
Service sector and manufacturing firms registered the second-sharpest reductions in new orders since the global financial crisis. Foreign client demand remained especially muted, with new export orders decreasing substantially and at only a slightly reduced rate compared to April as lockdowns associated with the virus pandemic persisted across key export markets.
Reflecting the further severe drop in new business, firms cut workforce members at a marked pace in May.
The initial claims figures, although bad, don’t capture the full extent of the jobs lost in the crisis.
Another 2.2 million new claims were filed through the federal government’s temporary Pandemic Unemployment Assistance program. It’s designed to help gig economy workers, independent contractors and other self-employed workers, who might not be able file traditional jobless claims.
Wall Street is unperturbed by today’s US jobless numbers.
The Dow has gained 57 points or 0.2% in early trading to 24,633 points, despite traders learning that another 2.4m Americans are now on the dole.
The S&P 500 is also slightly higher, having recovered a large chunk of its hefty fall in March.
In London, the FTSE 100 has shaken off its earlier losses and is up 17 points at 6084. Top risers include Rolls-Royce (+6%) after announcing 9,000 job losses yesterday, and AstraZeneca, which says it can manufacture 1bn doses of the University of Oxford’s potential Covid-19 vaccine.
Back in the UK, workers at Royal Bank of Scotland are preparing to work from home for a while yet.
RBS told staff today that more than 50,00 of them (out of 65,000) won’t return to the office until at least the end of September.
However, about 400 workers whose jobs include handling sensitive data have been asked to return to offices and call centres next month.
More here:
Several economists are concerned that America’s jobless claims haven’t levelled out faster:
America has just passed a grim milestone in its unemployment crisis.
Glassdoor senior economist Daniel Zhao has spotted that more jobs have been lost in the last nine weeks than during the last recession a decade ago:
“Today’s sky-high unemployment insurance claims report brings the total UI claims to 38.6 million and surpasses yet another historical benchmark. In only nine weeks, unemployment claims made during the coronavirus crisis have already exceeded the 37 million claims made over the entire 18 months of the Great Recession.
The coronavirus crisis continues to inflict swift and deep impacts on the labor market at a near unprecedented clip.
Before Covid-19, the idea of more than two million Americans losing their jobs in a single week would be unimaginable, let alone 38 million joining the unemployment ranks in two months.
As this tweet shows, the job losses since March absolutely dwarf the impact of the financial crisis - wiping out all the gains since then.
US jobless claims total climbs towards 40m
Newsflash: Another 2.4 million Americans filed new claims for unemployment benefit last week, as the US jobs crisis deepens.
That’s down from 2.6 million in the previous seven days (which has been revised down from 2.9m).
But it’s the ninth week in a row in which millions of US citizens signed on for welfare benefits, having lost their job in the lockdown.
The total number of initial claims filed since mid-March is now over 38 million, or over a fifth of the US labor force.
The number of continued claims (for workers who were already on the jobless total) also jumped again to over 25m, from 22.5m.
Oof! US department store Macy’s has warned that its sales have fallen by around 45% in the last quarter, as the coronavirus shutdown drove it into the red.
Preliminary results show that sales at Macy’s in February-April fell to between $3,000m and $3,030m, down from $5,504. It made an operating loss of around $1.1bn, down from an operating profit of $203m a year earlier.
The company shut all its stores - including department chain Bloomingdale’s and beauty chain Bluemercury - on 18 March, leading to a slump in takings.
“This is a challenging time for the country, for retail and for Macy’s, Inc. COVID-19 has impacted the lives of many of our colleagues and customers, and health and safety remain our top priority. We closed all of our stores - Macy’s, Bloomingdale’s and Bluemercury - on March 18, which had a significant impact on our first quarter results,” said
Jeff Gennette, chairman and chief executive officer, said it is a challenging time for the country, for retail and for Macy’s itself.
“Looking back, our performance in February was solid and in line with our expectations, but we saw a precipitous decline in sales with the stores closure in March. As a developed omnichannel retailer, we experienced a steady uptick in our digital business in April, which was encouraging, but only partially offset the loss of sales from the stores.
The digital performance was driven by strong execution and enhanced fulfillment options, including curbside pickup where allowed.”
This morning’s PMI reports from the UK and the eurozone haven’t lifted spirits in the markets.
The FTSE 100 is still down 0.8% at 6018 points, a loss of 48 points so far, after the City heard that UK manufacturers and services companies were having such a rough time.
Wall Street is expected to open lower, with the Dow down 145 points (roughly 0.6%) in pre-market trading and traders nudging the safe-haven dollar a little higher.
Here’s our news story on today’s UK PMI report:
UK factories see more gloom ahead after record slump
Newsflash: UK manufacturing output has fallen over the last quarter at the fastest rate since at least 1975.
Output volumes fell in 15 of 17 manufacturing sub-sectors in March-May, according to the latest healthcheck from the CBI.
Motor vehicles and transport equipment, and food, drink and tobacco, suffered the sharpest tumbles. while pharmaceuticals and electronic engineering output rose.
This pulled down the CBI’s measure of output volumes in the last quarter to -54%, from -21% in April (the balance between firms reporting higher output vs lower).
This isn’t a massive surprise, given the widespread shutdowns across UK factories to fight the Covid-19 pandemic.
But worryingly, manufacturers predict that output volumes will keep falling over the next three months, with many reporting that their order books have shrunk alarmingly.
The survey also found that:
- 84% of respondents had seen a negative impact on their domestic output.
- 68% of manufacturers reported a negative impact on their international output.
- 51% of manufacturers reported a partial shutdown/closure.
- 59% of manufacturers mentioned that they had temporarily laid off staff, while 9% reported permanent layoffs.
- 74% of firms had faced cash flow difficulties.
Anna Leach, CBI deputy chief economist, says UK manufacturing faces a “challenging” future:
“These results show that UK manufacturers are still grappling with the impact of the pandemic.
Production levels have fallen even more sharply as firms experience collapsing demand and supply chain disruption, leading some to temporarily shut down their factories. The sector is bracing for what will be a challenging period.
Duncan Brock, Group Director at CIPS, fears that a second wave of Covid-19 infections could undermine hopes of a recovery (sending the PMI skittering back down to April’s record lows).
The minor easing in the downturn compared to last month’s figures only serves to highlight the depth of the fall in April’s output and does not signal that the pathway is clear for an improvement in the manufacturing and services sectors.
“This month saw another steep fall in overall business activity, surpassing for the third time the rates of decline seen during the global financial crisis in 2009. No new orders, premises shut down and furloughed staff unable to return to work were at the heart of the desolation as business struggled to continue with two hands tied behind their back.
Even some heavy discounting by companies did little to offset their losses which are likely to be just the tip of the iceberg with businesses failing in increasing numbers. “As the sectors prepare for a further easing in restrictions and becoming covid-ready for staff to return, the danger on the horizon is a second wave of infections threatening the health of the nation and dampening consumer confidence still further.
In addition, if this intensity of job cuts continues, purse strings will be drawn tightly shut and spending severely curtailed, putting further pressure on the UK economy and ensuring any recovery is many years into the future.”
Here’s Andrew Wishart of Capital Economics on today’s UK purchasing managers survey:
Taken literally the fact the flash composite PMI remained well below the no-change level of 50 in May suggests that activity fell further as it should compare activity to the previous month. But many respondents appear to be answering the alternate question of “how is activity compared to normal?”. So instead it appears to be suggesting that the low point for activity was reached in April, but that it is still well below normal in May.
The recovery in the manufacturing PMI from 32.6 to 40.6 is probably a sign that some industrial plants have reopened on government advice. And the services index recovered from 13.4 to 27.8, in line with anecdotal evidence that firms have restarted limited operations, such as take-out options from restaurants.
PMI surveys crush hopes of V-shaped recovery
A few weeks ago, there was lots of talk about V-shaped recoveries.
Economists hoped that growth would bounce back sharply from the initial shock of Covid-19, as companies rapidly caught up on lost business.
It always seemed a little optimistic -- no-one is going to get two haircuts, order three restaurant specials or watch four football matches in a day once the crisis is over (but lets not rule out two specials....)
The message from today’s PMI surveys is clear -- businesses across the eurozone and UK have suffered major damage under the lockdown, and the downturn is not over.
Neil Birrell, Chief Investment Officer at Premier Miton, says the recovery is some way away:
“The PMI data in from the UK and Europe suggests that the outlook is improving. That is to be expected, as the surveys are taken mid-month and economies were more open than they were in mid-April. But with UK Composite PMI at 28.9, albeit up from 13.8 in April, and the Eurozone Composite PMI reading at 30.5 the outlook is still grim. Markets may well take this as a sign that the nadir has been reached, although recovery is some time off.”
James Smith and Bert Colijn of ING agree that the recovery certainly won’t resemble a perky V.
CBI chief economist Alpesh Paleja agrees that May is a ‘pretty awful’ month for businesses:
UK PMIs show economy still shrinking
Newsflash: Britain’s economy continued to suffer an unprecedented contraction this month.
Both the manufacturing and service sectors are shrinking extremely rapidly as the lockdown continues, according to the latest survey of purchasing managers by IHS Markit.
But there are also signs that the pace of the downturn is easing a little.
Here’s the details of the PMI reports:
- UK Composite Output Index for May: 28.9, up from 13.8 in April
- UK flash manufacturing PMI: 40.6, up from 32.9
- UK services flash PMI: 27.8, up from 12.3
Any reading below 50 shows a fall in activity, so the UK economy certainly hasn’t returned to growth yet. It’s simply shrinking at a slower pace.
Chris Williamson, chief business economist at IHS Markit, explains:
“The UK economy remains firmly locked in an unprecedented downturn, with business activity and employment continuing to slump at alarming rates in May. Although the pace of decline has eased since April’s record collapse, May saw the second largest monthly falls in output and jobs seen over the survey’s 22-year history, the rates of decline continuing to far exceed anything seen previously.
Travel and tourism firms, hotels, restaurants and producers of consumer goods such as clothing were again the hardest hit, reflecting virus containment measures, but this remains a shockingly broad-based downturn with very few companies left unscathed by the COVID-19 pandemic.
UK companies reported that activity was painfully low this month, due to business shutdowns, cancellations of customer orders and a general slump in demand amid the coronavirus pandemic.
Firms also suffered another rapid declines in new work and employment across the UK private sector, nearly as bad as the record lows seen in April.
These graphs highlight just how sharply the UK economy has shrunk since the pandemic started:
Updated
Although a PMI of 30.5 is better than one of 13.6, it’s still extremely weak - showing a profound economic downturn this month.
Chris Williamson, chief business economist at IHS Markit, reckons today’s PMI surveys show that the downturn is bottoming out:
“The eurozone saw a further collapse of business activity in May but the survey data at least brought reassuring signs that the downturn likely bottomed out in April.
Second quarter GDP is still likely to fall at an unprecedented rate, down by around 10% compared to the first quarter, but the rise in the PMI adds to expectations that the downturn should continue to moderate as lockdown restrictions are further lifted heading into the summer.
All eurozone countries eased their COVID-19 containment measures to some extent in May, helping to moderate the overall rate of economic decline.
However, while a further loosening of restrictions is anticipated in coming months, some measures to contain the virus are likely to remain in place until an effective treatment or vaccine is found.
Eurozone PMI rises, but still grim
Newsflash: The eurozone economy continues to suffer an unprecedented decline this month, although the slump is easing as some Covid-19 lockdown measures are relaxed.
The Eurozone Composite PMI, which tracks activity across the euro area, has risen to 30.5 in May from a record low of 13.6 in April.
That still shows an extremely sharp downturn -- worse than at any stage of the financial crisis. Any reading below 50 indicates the economy shrank.
Data firm Markit, which compiles the PMI, says:
The eurozone economy remained stuck in its deepest downturn ever recorded in May due to ongoing measures taken to control the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak, according to provisional PMI survey data.
However, the rate of decline eased as parts of the economy started to emerge from lockdowns.
Companies reported that they were cutting jobs at an unprecedented rate, with output falling, supply chains disrupted, and many non-essential businesses closing.
Germany again saw a modestly milder downturn than France while the rest of the eurozone saw the steepest decline.
And although bosses are more optimistic than in April, confidence is still extraordinarily low.
Japan has suffered its worst drop in exports since the financial crisis over a decade ago , denting hopes that the world economy could be turning the corner.
Japanese exports slumped by almost 22% year-on-year in April, led by tumbling demand for cars and industrial goods.
Exports to the US were down 37.8%, with auto exports down by two-thirds.
Shares in budget airline easyJet have jumped 5% in early trading, after it announced it will resume some flights from mid-June.
Face masks will be compulsory, as the airline tries to operate while obeying physical distancing rules.
My colleague Jo Partridge explains:
The airline initially will restart domestic routes in the UK and France where it believes “there is sufficient customer demand to support profitable flying”. The carrier will add further routes in the following weeks, as and when passenger demand rises and lockdown measures ease further across Europe.
The company will introduce enhanced cleaning and disinfection of its aircraft, will make disinfectant wipes and hand sanitiser available on board, and will require all passengers and cabin crew, as well as ground crew, to wear masks. There will be no food service onboard, initially.
Whitbread launches £1bn rights issue
Hotels group Whitbread are the top faller in London, down over 16% after announcing a £1bn rights issue.
This will shore up Whitbread’s finances to handle the Covid-19 recession.
It told investors that the funds will give it the “confidence and flexibility” to keep operating and invest in the UK and Germany. The firm reckons there are opportunities to expand, as “its budget-branded and independent competitors are expected to be weakened by the COVID-19 pandemic”
More ominously, the money will also provide “further liquidity headroom in the event of a resurgence of the COVID-19 pandemic”.
Investors can buy one new share, at £15, for each two they already own. That’s a 37.4% discount on the “theoretical ex-rights price of £2,395”. Shares in Whitbread have fallen smartly to this level, down 440p at £24.01.
Whitbread, which owns Premier Inns, had entered the crisis with £300m in the bank and a £950m revolving credit facility. But the lockdown means it faces a “very material loss of revenue” for the current financial year, having already furloughed staff and shut hotels.
Anxiety over US-China relations is weighing on the London stock market.
The FTSE 100 index has dropped by 50 points, or 0.85%, in early trading to 6,016. France and Germany are both down over 1%.
Consumer-focused companies, technology firms, and financial groups are among the fallers -- reflecting worries over the global economic outlook.
Overnight, the US intensified its criticism of China by issuing a new report which criticises Beijing activities.
Associated Press has the details:
Beyond its hard-hitting rhetoric against China over its handling of the coronavirus, the White House has issued a broad-scale attack on Beijing’s predatory economic policies, military buildup, disinformation campaigns and human rights violations.
The 20-page report does not signal a shift in U.S. policy, according to a senior administration official, who was not authorized to publicly discuss the report and spoke only on condition of anonymity, but it expands on Trump’s get-tough rhetoric that he hopes will resonate with voters angry about China’s handling of the disease outbreak that has left tens of millions of Americans out of work.
US secretary of state Mike Pompeo has also launched a stinging attack on China’s government, calling it a “brutal, authoritarian regime” that is “ideologically and politically hostile to free nations”:
Introduction: Trump's swipe at Xi worries markets
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.
Just as anxiety over the Covid-19 pandemic was easing, the prospect of a new US-China trade dispute is looming over the markets again.
Donald Trump has alarmed investors with another stinging attack on Beijing’s handling of the pandemic -- accusing them of spreading “pain and carnage” around the world.
He also appeared to single out president Xi Jinping personally, tweeting that “it all comes from the top” -- fuelling concerns that the trade deal agreed last year between the two sides could crumble.
With an eye on November’s election, Trump also claimed that his democratic rival Joe Biden was now China’s preferred candidate.
With world trade already shrinking alarmingly under the pandemic, the world economy certainly doesn’t need rising tensions between these two powers.
Trump’s blast has rather dampened the mood in the markets, where shares yesterday hit their highest levels since early March.
China’s CSI 300 index has dipped 0.5%, and European stock markets have just dropped 1% at the start of trading.
Fiona Cincotta of City Index explains:
President Trump escalated rhetoric against China pointing the finger at Xi Jinping for a disinformation campaign and propaganda attacks on both the US and Europe.
Whilst Trump playing the blame game with China is nothing news, this is the first time that he has taken direct aim at Xi Jinping. Previously he has always maintained a strong relationship between the two. This change of tone is making the markets sit up and listen. Riskier assets are out of favour and flows into safe havens are on the rise.
Also coming up today
The latest surveys of purchasing managers in the UK, US and eurozone will show how much economic damage is being caused by the lockdown - and whether business leaders are any less pessimistic about the future. These PMI reports are expected to be better than April’s horror show, but still show that economies are shrinking.
And brace for another shocking US unemployment report - the weekly ‘initial claims’ survey is expected to show that another 2.4 million Americans lost their jobs last week.
The agenda
- 9am BST: Eurozone ‘flash’ manufacturing and services PMIs for May
- 9.30am BST: UK ‘flash’ manufacturing and services PMIs for May
- 11am BST: CBI’s industrial trends survey of UK manufacturing
- 1.30pm BST: US weekly jobless claims report
- 3pm BST: US ‘flash’ manufacturing and services PMIs for May
Updated