Graeme Wearden 

Hong Kong falls deeper into recession; US factory orders tumble – as it happened

Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news, as investors worry about new trade war between Washington and Beijing
  
  

The Avenue of Stars at Victoria Harbour waterfront in Hong Kong during the lockdown.
The Avenue of Stars at Victoria Harbour waterfront in Hong Kong during the lockdown. Photograph: Anadolu Agency/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

Closing summary

Time to wrap up, after another day dominated by the economic pain of the coronavirus.

Hong Kong’s economy has suffered its worst slump on record. GDP across the city state shrank by 5.3% in the first quarter of this year, extending its recession.

The economy was 8.9% smaller than a year ago, as the pro-democracy protests and the US-China trade war also hit growth in recent months.

Stock markets have dropped, after Donald Trump intensified his criticism of China over the coronavirus - and suggested he could impose new trade tariffs. Beijing has rejected the White House’s claim that Covid-19 began in a Wuhan lab.

America’s manufacturing sector has been badly hit by the ongoing lockdowns, with new factory orders tumbling over 10% in March.

The lockdown has also pushed US fashion retailer J Crew into Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, and prompted meat processing giant Tyson to warn of further disruption.

Shares in US airlines have fallen after billionaire investor Warren Buffett revealed he has sold up. Investors in Norwegian Air have approved a rescue package.

Goodnight. GW

More bad news: America’s General Electric is cutting as many as 13,000 jobs in its jet engine business.

GE has announced it is accelerating its cost-cutting programme, and permanently reducing the Aviation division’s global workforce by as much as 25% this year. The plan will include voluntary redundancies and compulsory layoffs, as the company reels from the shock of Covid-19.

GE blamed the “unprecedented” and “deep contraction” of the commercial aviation business, with GE Aviation CEO David Joyce telling staff that:

“[The] deep contraction of commercial aviation is unprecedented, affecting every customer worldwide. Global traffic is expected to be down approximately 80% in the second quarter.”

Although Britain’s FTSE 100 only dropped 0.15% today, there are some chunky risers and fallers out there.

The losers column is dominated by travel companies - with British Airways parent company IAG down 5% and easyJet losing 7.2%. Betting firm Flutter fell 4.9%, amid signs that UK sporting events will remain disrupted for some time.

Top risers included pharmaceuticals firms Hikma (+5.8%) and GSK (+3.2%), and online grocer Ocado (+4.45% to a new closing high).

European markets close lower

Europe’s stock markets have ended the day with solid losses.

Worries that the US-China trade dispute might flare up again, amid Covid-19 recriminations, knocked all the major indices lower.

After being on holiday on Friday, EU investors were also keen to catch up on last week’s late selloff in London and New York.

Here’s the damage:

  • German DAX: down 394 points or 3.9% at 10,466
  • French CAC: down 193 points or 4.2% at 4,378
  • Italian FTSE MIB: down 654 points or 3.7% at 17,035
  • Spanish IBEX: down 259 points or 3.6% at 6,673

The weak pound propped up major shares in London, though, where the FTSE 100 index only ended 9 points lower at 5,753.

In New York, the Dow is still down - off 0.7% - but the technology-focused Nasdaq has gained 0.8%.

Edward Moya of trading firm OANDA explains:

‘Sell in May’ continues as airlines get dumped, US-China tensions are back, and as the virus spread accelerates in some parts of the US as many states begin reopening. Reopening doubts are growing after President Trump had to acknowledge the virus was more lethal than initially thought. Trump, known for being overly optimistic, now sees the death toll from the coronavirus reaching as high as 100,000 in the US.

The reason financial markets are not substantially lower is because tech giants are surging higher. Not everyone is Warren Buffett and will sit on a huge pile of cash. Investors are jumping out of airlines, financials and real estate and overloading on big-tech. Airlines might not see a return to prior crisis levels for a couple years and low interest rates are here for the foreseeable future.

Good news for those nursing a sweet tooth through the lockdown -- high-end confectionery chain Hotel Chocolat is planning to reopen a few stores next week.

My colleague Sarah Butler explains:

Hotel Chocolat is to reopen up to five stores next week – for takeaways only – after restarting production at its UK factory to help top up dwindling supplies.

The specialist retailer and cafe operator said it will reopen first in Borough Market in London, serving hot chocolates, ice-creams and coffees, as it tests out new ways of working while protecting staff and customers from the spread of the coronavirus.

The UK government has just reported that 6.3 million workers have been furloughed since the coronavirus crisis began.

That’s nearly a fifth of Britain’s total workforce, I estimate (the employment total hit 33.07m in February).

Updated

German car market are also feeling extremely worried about the future, due to the Covid-19 lockdown.

A survey of the business climate in Germany’s auto sector suffered its biggest slump in April, dropping from -13.2 to -85.4 -- the worst since the survey began in 1991.

“We have never seen such bad figures for this key sector,” said Klaus Wohlrabe, head of forecasting at Ifo, which produced the report.

Bosses at German carmakers reported that orders, production expectations and export hopes all tumbled.

More reaction to the tumble in demand for US factory goods:

Here’s Reuters take:

New orders for U.S.-made goods fell more than expected in March and could sink further as disruptions from the novel coronavirus fracture supply chains and depress exports.

The Commerce Department said on Monday factory orders dropped 10.3%. Data for February was revised down to show orders dipping 0.1% instead of being unchanged as previously reported. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast factory orders tumbling 9.7% in March.

US factory orders slump 10.3%

Newsflash: America has suffered the biggest slump in factory orders on record.

New factory orders fell by 10.3% in March. That’s worst than expected, and the biggest decline on record.

It tells us what we already knew -- America’s economy is in a severe slump due to the global coronavirus pandemic, with weak demand from abroad and at home due to lockdowns and physical distancing.

As feared, airline stocks are falling sharply after Warren Buffett revealed he’d sold his stakes in the industry.

American Airlines and SouthWest are down 6%, United has dropped 7% and Delta has lost 8%.

Boeing is suffering too, down 4% as traders anticipate that demand for new planes will be weak for some time.

Wall Street drops 1% amid US-China worries

The US stock market has opened lower, as fears of a new US-China trade war weigh on Wall Street.

The Dow Jones industrial average has dropped 1% in early trading, down 245 points at 23,478.

That extends Friday’s 622-point slide, meaning May has got off to poor start.

Investors are anxious that the White House may impose new tariffs on China, given Donald Trump’s latest criticism of Beijing’s handling of the coronavirus crisis.

Rupert Thompson, chief investment officer at Kingswood, says the markets are returning to early after a sizzling rally in April.

The sour market mood of the last couple of days has been triggered most obviously by the ratcheting up of tensions between the US and China. The US is now blaming China for a cover-up and even asserting the virus was developed in a Chinese lab. Trade tariffs, which were a major concern for the market for most of last year, are once again back in the headlines, with Trump now threatening to impose new tariffs on China.

However, the latest market falls are also in part no real surprise given the strength of the rebound with markets gaining more than 25% in little more than a month. The recovery was the sharpest ever out of a bear market and has looked overdone.

A stock market wobble is usually a busy time for Warren Buffett - the man who became super rich by being greedy when others are fearful (and vice versa).

But not this time. Buffett told shareholders at his Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting that deal opportunities melted away after the US Federal Reserve announced its rescue packages last month.

Buffett explained that the Fed’s offers of huge, low-priced loans to help firms through the crisis meant his own chequebook wasn’t needed.

“There was a period right before the Fed acted, we were starting to get calls. They weren’t attractive calls, but we were getting calls.

And the companies we were getting calls from, after the Fed acted, a number of them were able to get money in the public market frankly at terms we wouldn’t have given.”

This means Buffett is still sitting on a huge pile of cash - especially now he’s sold his airlines shares. He reckons current valuations aren’t attractive -- perhaps a sign that the market is going to head lower?...

The covid-19 pandemic has pushed fashion chain J Crew to seek bankruptcy protection.

Known for its ‘preppy’ range of mens and womenswear, J Crew has become the first major US retailer to be brought down by the virus.

Demand for its sweaters, t-shirts, trousers and pencil skirts has slumped since shops were forced to close - and millions of Americans lost their jobs.

Tyson Foods warns of Covid-19 impact

Over in the US, meat processing giant Tyson Foods has warned that the Covid-19 pandemic will hurt its business this year.

Tyson, a massive producer of chicken, beef and pork, has reported a 15% drop in profits in the last quarter - from $1.17 per share to $1. That’s below forecasts.

Tyson also told shareholders that its operations will be disrupted by the pandemic for some time:

Given the nature of our business, demand for food and protein may shift amongst sales channels and experience short-term disruptions, but over time we expect worldwide demand to continue to increase. We are experiencing multiple challenges related to the pandemic. These challenges are anticipated to increase our operating costs and negatively impact our volumes for the remainder of fiscal 2020.

Operationally, we have and expect to continue to face slowdowns and temporary idling of production facilities from team member shortages or choices we make to ensure operational safety. The lower levels of productivity and higher costs of production we have experienced will likely continue in the short term until the effects of COVID-19 diminishes.

Tyson has suspended operations at several plants in recent weeks, because workers contracted the virus. At one pork processing site in Indiana, almost 40% of staff were ill.

Workers and unions have accused America’s food industry of failing to protect workers, not supplying protective equipment, and covering up illnesses.

Staff say they were unable to take time off when ill, because they wouldn’t get paid - meaning viruses quickly spread across production lines.

Shares are down 5% in pre-market trading.

Feeling worried about life? You’re not alone.

More than 25 million people reported high levels of anxiety in late March as the decision to put the UK into lockdown triggered fears about health, job security and making ends meet among half the country’s adult population.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said its regular update on wellbeing showed a more than doubling since late 2019 in the number of people over 16 reporting deep levels of concern and stress.

More here:

Shares in America’s airlines are down over 10% in pre-market trading, after billionaire Warren Buffett revealed he’d sold his stakes in the industry.

On Saturday, Buffett said he’d ditched his shares in Delta, American Airlines, Southwest and United following the Covid-19 pandemic.

Buffett explained:

“We made that decision in terms of the airline business. We took money out of the business basically even at a substantial loss. We will not fund a company … where we think that it is going to chew up money in the future.”

Former American Airlines CEO Robert Crandall thinks Buffett is right. He told CNBC that the airline industry isn’t ‘investable’ right now, and that it should be “sheltered” so that it is there in future when people want to fly again.

Norwegian Air’s future is looking more secure this morning after investors backed an emergency rescue package.

My colleague Julia Kollewe explains:

The embattled carrier Norwegian Air will push ahead with its rescue plan and unlock government aid after winning support from shareholders, bondholders and aircraft lessors for a 10bn kroner (£770m) debt-for-equity swap.

After a weekend of frantic talks, the airline’s shareholders gathered at an emergency meeting in Oslo on Monday morning and voted 95% in favour of all proposals, including a 400m kroner share issue.

The plan will hand majority ownership to the airline’s creditors – bondholders and lessors – and leave shareholders with 5.2% of the company but there was no alternative, Norwegian’s chief executive, Jacob Schram, said.

Hong Kong’s lurch deeper into recession hasn’t brightened the mood in the markets.

The main European indices are all sharply lower still, as investors worry about the escalating tensions between the US and China - and the threat of a new trade war.

Britain’s FTSE 100 has recovered some ground, but that’s partly because the pound has dropped against the US dollar (down almost one cent to $1.242). That boosts multinationals.

The FTSE 250, which is more focused on the UK, is down 1.3%.

[Reminder: European markets missed out on Friday’s sell-off because they were closed for May Day].

Updated

Back in the UK, sugar and starch producer Tate & Lyle has reported that sales were affected by the Covid-19 lock down.

Sales of Tate & Lyle’s bulk sweeteners slumped by 26% in April, due to bars, cinemas, restaurants and sporting venues all shutting down.

Volumes of the rather-unappetising sounding “industrial starch” fell 9% -- due to “reduced demand for paper and packaging following the closure of schools, offices and a general decline in economic activity”.

But sales of ‘food and beverage’ products to consumers jumped 18% as people stocked up on staples (such as golden syrup and granulated sugar).

Tate & Lyle says:

Earlier in the month, demand was strong for ingredients used in packaged and shelf-stable foods as consumers in North America and Europe filled their pantries for consumption at home.

ING analyst Iris Pang fears that Hong Kong’s recession will last longer than the Covid-19 pandemic.

She suspects that the pro-democracy protests that gripped Hong Kong last year -- and badly damaged its tourism and retail sectors -- will return as the lockdown measures are eased.

Last Friday, riot police clashed with demonstrators for the first time in several months - using pepper spray to disperse them from a shopping mall.

Pang writes that such scenes could become more common again this year:

Consumption contracted 10.3% YoY as opportunities for shopping and travel were severely curtailed during the Covid-19 outbreak. Investment contracted even more, by 13.9% YoY, as construction projects were delayed because outdoor work was prohibited.

Even though the government spent money and imports dropped in 1Q20, this has not stopped the economy from contracting for three quarters in a row.

Unlike other economies which may return to normal after Covid-19 subsides, Hong Kong has more challenges ahead. Pro-democracy protesters have returned to the streets and will affect shopping and catering businesses, as they did in the second half of 2019. It is expected that protests will become more violent and will increasingly hurt the retail sector. Unemployment has already gone up in retail and catering, and the protests mean that it will take longer for the unemployed to find another job in the same industry. This will lengthen the job search time and will therefore increase the unemployment rate.

This chart shows that Hong Kong’s economy has shrunk faster than in the global financial crisis of 2008, or after the Asia financial crisis a decade earlier:

Worst Hong Kong downturn on record

Here’s Bloomberg’s take on Hong Kong’s dire growth figures:

Hong Kong’s downturn is now the worst on record, extending the first recession seen in a decade as the coronavirus outbreak further battered an economy already weakened by political unrest.

The city’s economy contracted 8.9% in the first quarter from year-ago levels, according to advance government data. The decline surpasses the previous record of -8.3% in the third quarter of 1998 and a 7.8% contraction in the first quarter of 2009, the two worst quarterly readings in data back to 1974, according to the Census and Statistics Department Hong Kong.

The latest decline also marks the third straight quarterly contraction for Hong Kong, the longest such stretch since the aftermath of the global financial crisis in 2009.

Hong Kong appears to have suffered its worst economic slump on record:

Hong Kong's economy shrinks again

Newsflash: Hong Kong’s recession has deepened as the Covid-19 pandemic hits its economy.

Hong Kong’s GDP shrank by 5.3% in the first quarter of 2020, official figures show. That’s a very sharp contraction, extending its economic downturn.

On an annual basis, the City state’s economy is now 8.9% smaller than a year ago - due to coronavirus shutdowns, last year’s pro-democracy protests, and the US-China trade war (which may be flaring up again...)

In a statement, Hong Kong’s government said the pandemic had caused a “severe contraction” in global economy activity. It now fears the economy will shrink by 7% this year, and predicted that exports will remain under “notable pressure” in the near term.

Eurozone manufacturing economy contracts at record pace in April

France, Germany and the Netherland’s manufacturing sectors also slumped last month, according to Markit’s new survey of purchasing managers.

They confirm the message from the ‘flash’ PMIs two weeks ago - activity contracted in April even faster than after the financial crisis:

This has dragged the final Eurozone Manufacturing PMI down to 33.4, slightly worse than the flash reading of 33.6-- showing an extremely steep contraction (a reading of 50 would show activity was flat).

Italy’s factory sector also had a torrid April:

Ouch. Spain’s factory sector has suffered an ‘unprecedented’ slump last month.

Output, new orders and purchasing activity all fell at a record pace last month, according the latest Spanish manufacturing PMI survey.

Companies badly affected by the Covid-19 pandemic are leading the fallers on the London stock market today.

Travel firms are having a bad morning, with Intercontinental Hotels are down 6.5%, cruise operator Carnival down 65% and budget airline easyJet down 5%.

Jet engine maker Rolls-Royce are down 6.6%. That reflects rising concerns over the airline industry, after billionaire investor Warren Buffett revealed he’s sold all his share in America’s four largest US airlines.

Top risers this morning include online grocer Ocado (+3.6%) and takeaway chain Just Eat (+2.1%), who are both in demand during the lockdown.

China’s Global Times, the state-controlled tabloid, has hit back at Washington’s claims in an editorial today.

It accuses US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo of “bluffing” and trying to “fool” the American public, by claiming that COVID-19 originated in a laboratory in Wuhan. More here.

European markets drop in early trading

European stock markets have opened in the red, as traders respond to the latest US criticism of China.

The Europe-wide Stoxx 600 index has dropped by 2.6%, with France’s CAC and Germany’s DAX both shedding 3%.

Investors are scrambling to sell stocks having been on holiday last Friday (when the threat of a new US-China trade war emerged).

In London, the FTSE 100 has dipped by 40 points, or 0.7%, to 5722. That’s an eight-day low, meaning last week’s brisk rally has been wiped out.

Updated

The Covid-19 pandemic has had a devastating impact on factory output across Asia, new data shows.

Data firm Markit has reported that manufacturing activity in India, Taiwan and South Korea slumped alarmingly last month, as the world economy lurched into recession:

Worries about the global economy are weighing on the oil price this morning.

US crude has dropped by 6% to $18.60 per barrel, while Brent crude is 1% lower at $26.19.

The Trump administration is “turbocharging” an initiative to remove global industrial supply chains from China, according to Reuters this morning.

They cite “officials familiar with U.S. planning”, who say Washington wants US companies to move their supply chains away from China.

Here’s a flavour:

“We’ve been working on [reducing the reliance of our supply chains in China] over the last few years but we are now turbo-charging that initiative,” Keith Krach, undersecretary for Economic Growth, Energy and the Environment at the U.S. State Department told Reuters.

“I think it is essential to understand where the critical areas are and where critical bottlenecks exist,” Krach said, adding that the matter was key to U.S. security and one the government could announce new action on soon.

The threat of a new US-China trade war has knocked Asia-Pacific markets.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index slumped by almost 4%, after Donald Trump declared that new tariffs would be the ‘ultimate punishment’ for China.

South Korea’s Kospi 200 shed 3% and India’s Sensex is down 5% (mainland China and Japan are both closed).

Jim Reid of Deutsche Bank says the Covid-19 ‘blame game’ is worrying the markets:

Given it’s a US election year this issue isn’t likely to go away, especially as Joe Biden has suggested that Mr Trump is weak on China. However, on Thursday night and Friday it became a more immediate topic as the Washington Post reported that the US had held preliminary discussions to punish China for its role in the virus outbreak that included the possibility of the US cancelling its debt obligations with China.

There was an immediate denial from Larry Kudlow who confirmed that the full faith and credit of US debt obligations is ‘sacrosanct’. Nevertheless, the risk of a cold war between the two nations seems to be building.

Introduction: Investors jittery as Trump blames China again

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.

Investors are jittery today after the White House intensified its criticism of China over the Covid-19 pandemic, fuelling fears of a new breakdown in relations between the two powers.

Overnight, Donald Trump repeated his claim that the virus emerged from the Wuhan Institute of Virology (something previously denied by China) and that Beijing couldn’t “put out the fire”.

He told Fox News:

“I think they made a horrible mistake and they didn’t want to admit it...

“My opinion is they made a mistake. They tried to cover it, they tried to put it out. It’s like a fire.

Trump also suggested that new tariffs on China could be the ‘ultimate punishment for Beijing, as a penalty for bungling the coronavirus outbreak.

Hours earlier, US secretary of state, Mike Pompeo, said there was “enormous evidence” the coronavirus outbreak originated in the laboratory -- without providing the proof to back up the claim.

China seems likely to be a key issue in the US presidential election - especially as the president can’t boast about the soaring stock market or the strongest economy in history.

Stephen Innes, chief global markets strategist at AxiCorp, writes:

The US media is pointing to the growing possibility that China will be the focal point of the 2020 election campaign. Polls conducted by President Trump’s campaign suggest that China will be an ongoing issue, according to Republican sources cited by Politico.

The Democrats are examining a harder line on China to boost their chances. Either way, China will be in the US spotlight and not in a pleasant way.

Fears of a new US-China trade war are overshadowing hopes that the global economy could tiptoe its way towards more normal conditions in the coming weeks.

Britain’s FTSE 100 is expected to drop by 40 points, or over 0.5%, adding to Thursday and Friday’s losses. There will be deeper sharper losses in continental Europe, where traders are playing catch-up after Friday’s May Day holidays.

Most countries have continues to report a slowdown in new cases and deaths from Covid-19 - with the global death toll now standing at over 247,000. Italy is starting to lift its lockdown today, but there is public disappointment and anger that travel is still restricted and some shops aren’t allowed to open.

The agenda

  • 9am BST: Eurozone manufacturing PMI for April: likely to confirm the worst downturn on record
  • 9.30am BST: Hong Kong GDP for Q1 2020: likely to show another contraction
  • 3pm BST: US factory orders: expected to fall around 10%
 

Leave a Comment

Required fields are marked *

*

*