The coronavirus pandemic has forced the British government to spend large amounts to keep its economy afloat and ensure the wellbeing of the public. Ministers did so without paying heed to questions of cost. They were right to forgo such concerns. We are seeing wartime levels of spending, pushing deficits – and public debt – to new highs. But the analogy does not get us very far.
In wartime the aim is to maximise production. Lockdowns minimise production. The solution is not to dwell on GDP. That will inevitably fall in a shutdown, which requires us to transact less intensely. As ministers contemplate a path out of the lockdown, there must be a frank conversation with the public about the big shift under way in the economy from its previous carefree state to a permanently distanced one. Part of that conversation is that as far as the economy is concerned, the state should be here to stay.
There must be an emphasis that people’s mental health and wellbeing will be prioritised alongside physical safety. Standards must be enforced. Otherwise there may be little public buy-in when restrictions are eased. People won’t be forced into crowded buses to commute to work. No one would willingly work in an unsafe workplace. Tory MPs who suggest workers are reluctant to go back to work after being furloughed reveal not a real crisis but an ideological fear that the growth of the role of the state is accepted as necessary by the public.
A series of small behavioural changes may add up to something much bigger. We won’t be shaking a lot of hands in the near future. There’s unlikely to be many people flying. Students won’t be found in lecture halls. By expanding testing and with a government committed to a Whack-A-Mole strategy of contact tracing and quarantine, there will be a time when businesses can, under a strict regulatory regime, reopen. But will this be normal? No. Some bits of the British economy have gone for good: department stores are surely part of a pre-Covid-19 age. Electrical retailers are planning drive-through stores.
The types of jobs that the economy produces will change too. As restaurants, bars and local shops close down, there’s a legitimate concern that customers and jobs are falling victim to Amazonification. Low-paying, precarious employment is not a good way of building resilience. The Trades Union Congress idea of a job guarantee where the government becomes the employer of last resort, offering secure employment at a living wage, is a good one. This would be especially important for the under-25s who were about two and a half times more likely than other employees to work in a sector that is currently shut down.
There will be plenty of positions to fill. Someone will have to take temperature readings at airports; the greening of industry will throw up new roles. Not everything will work out the way we think it might. We ought to need fewer waiters and more delivery drivers. This doesn’t always work in the favour of tech companies. Redundancies at Deliveroo are perhaps a sign that its business model had little to do with making money from delivering food.
Governments must keep societies afloat equitably. The pandemic has heightened awareness of our dependence on key workers who endure low pay and poor conditions. We cannot continue with the extreme imbalance of power between strong employers and vulnerable workers, which has degenerated labour standards. The International Labour Organization calculates that across Europe, working hours in the second quarter will drop 11.8% below the last pre-crisis quarter. Fighting the virus is set to become part of life. Public spending should not be withdrawn until business investment returns and household debt is significantly cut. Conservatives joke that nothing is so permanent in government as emergency measures. Only when the endgame comes into view can the state remove a heavy hand from the tiller of the economy.
• This article was amended on 6 May 2020. An earlier version used the word forego when forgo was meant.
