
Closing summary
Time for a recap
The turmoil engulfing the travel industry has deepened today, as the UK economy continues to flash warning signs.
- Virgin Atlantic announced plans to cut over 3,000 jobs, and stop operating from Gatwick while the Covid-19 crisis plays out.
Unions criticised the move, and urged the government to help protect jobs.
- Cruise operator Norwegian also sent shivers through the industry, warning that there’s doubt over its ability to keep operating.
Shares in Norwegian are down 19%, with other cruise operators also taking a knock - Britain’s car industry has suffered an unprecedented slump in sales. New car registrations tumbled by over 97%, with just 4,321 vehicles being purchased.
With showrooms closed and customers staying at home, Tesla’s Model 3 became the most popular car sold in April.
- Britain’s service sector recorded its biggest slump in at least 20 years, dragging down the UK’s PMI for April to a record low.
- Germany’s constitutional court issued a surprise challenge to the European Central Bank to justify its bond-buying QE programme, otherwise the Bundesbank must stop supporting it.
- Stock markets rallied, though, and oil prices jumped, on hopes that economic activity will strengthen as lockdowns are lifted.
Our main UK coronavirus blog is running here, including a briefing from UK foreign secretary Dominic Raab....
European stock markets have closed higher tonight.
Germany’s DAX gained 2.5%, with the Europe-wide Stoxx 600 index rising 2.1%.
In London, the FTSE 100 finished 95 points higher at 5,849.
Investors are taking their cue from Wall Street, where the Dow is up nearly 400 points at 24,143.00.
David Madden of CMC Markets says traders are hopeful the lockdown restrictions will be eased, leading to a pick-up in economic activity.
The mood on Wall Street is optimistic as a large portion of US states have loosened lockdown restrictions. The gradual reopening of the US economy is acting as a greenlight to the bulls.
Andrew Cuomo, the governor of New York, said the state is now on ‘the other side of the mountain’ in relation to the Covid-19 crisis, the new infection rate and the fatality rate are still in decline. There is a feeling the US is slowly on the up, so traders are buying into stocks.
Missed this earlier. The latest survey of US services companies shows a big fall in activity last month - but not quite as bad as feared.
The ISM manufacturing PMI tumbled to 41.8 for April - showing a sharp contraction, but better than the 37.9 reading expected (and above the record low set in 2008).
Companies reported that new orders and employment levels slumped, while the prices jumped amid supply chain disruption.
#US ISM non-manufacturing PMI (Apr) 41.8 v 37.9 exp. (prev 52.5)
— Michael Brown (@MrMBrown) May 5, 2020
New orders 32.9 v 52.9 prev
Employment 30.0 v 47.0 prev
Prices paid 55.1 v 50.0 prev$USD
Norwegian Cruises flags 'going concern' worries
In another blow to the tourism sector, Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings has warned investors that it might be forced to go out of business.
In a regulatory filing, Norwegian -- the world’s third-largest cruise operator -- said:
“COVID-19 has had, and is expected to continue to have, a significant impact on our financial condition and operations, which adversely affects our ability to obtain acceptable financing to fund resulting reductions in cash from operations.
The current, and uncertain future, impact of the COVID-19 outbreak, including its effect on the ability or desire of people to travel (including on cruises), is expected to continue to impact our results, operations, outlook, plans, goals, growth, reputation, cash flows, liquidity, demand for voyages and share price.
Norwegian suspended its sailings at the end of March. It says it has incurred considerable costs from Covid-19 -- and faces three lawsuits, plus an investigation into its marketing by Floridas Attorney General. It does not know when it will be able to start sailing again, or which ports will be open.
Norwegian warns:
As a result of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, our financial statements contain a statement regarding a substantial doubt about the Company’s ability to continue as a going concern.
Shares in Norwegian Cruises are down 20%, even though it also announced it has raised $400m from private equity firm L Catterton.
Airline passengers could be asked to wear face masks to prevent the spread of Covid-19 on a flight, according to the industry’s trade body.
The body representing global airlines came out in favour of passengers wearing masks onboard on Tuesday, as debate intensifies over how to get airlines flying while respecting social-distancing rules following the coronavirus crisis.
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) told reporters that wearing masks would help protect passenger health but came out against leaving middle seats empty on aircraft, a measure it had previously said was likely.
European flights have all but come to a standstill during the coronavirus pandemic. While there is no visibility on when travel restrictions will ease, airlines are considering how to safely restart services and give passengers confidence to fly.
Yesterday, photos of an Aer Lingus flight from Belfast to Heathrow showed passengers seated close together with no social distancing rules:
This was the @AerLingus flight from @BELFASTCITY_AIR to @londonheathrow this morning at 8:45. No social distancing taking place - one passenger told me they weren’t given any advice on how to keep themselves safe. More on @BBCevex next @taramillstv @NewsDeclan pic.twitter.com/eeAfcGf23O
— Kelly Bonner (@KellyBonner) May 4, 2020
Ouch. The collapse in international travel has pushed America’s trade deficit up by 12%.
The US trade gap widened to $44.4bn in March, from $39.8bn in April.
Exports plunged -- due partly to a collapse in international travel and tourism (overseas visitors to America count as an export).
Bloomberg explains:
Declines in international travel and tourism made up a large portion of the decreases in exports and imports, representing almost the entire drop in all services trade.
Travel exports declined 45% from February, while imports slumped 64%.
Travel and transport exports dropped $10.2 billion, while imports fell $10.6 billion.
With widespread factory closures and stay-at-home orders in place by the start of April, trade flows are likely to have fallen even further last month, predicts Capital Economics.
The U.S. trade deficit widened by almost 12% in March as the coronavirus caused massive disruptions in commerce.
— MarketWatch (@MarketWatch) May 5, 2020
Service imports —largely American tourists and businesspeople flying to and visiting other countries — also saw an unusually large decline. https://t.co/sVRH6uxEIk
Virgin’s job cuts come just as investors are a little more optimistic that Covid-19 lockdowns will ease soon.
The US stock market has jumped nearly 1.5% in early trading, with the Dow Jones industrial average up 318 points to 24,067. Delta Airlines, which owns 49% of Virgin Atlantic, is up 1.2%.
There’s optimism that America’s economy may start to revive soon, with Starbucks announcing that 90% of its US outlets should be reopened by June.
Oil prices are nudging higher too, with US crude up nearly $4 to $24 per barrel -- pleasing the president, as he lobbies for states to reopen.
Oil prices moving up nicely as demand begins again!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) May 5, 2020
Governors should let roads and highway construction begin before heavy traffic starts, which will be soon. Some Governors never stopped, which proved to be very smart. They built and fixed roads during long no traffic periods. Also, saved big dollars!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) May 5, 2020
But...a rise in Covid-19 cases could puncture this optimism. Lifting the lockdown too early could be very dangerous, and physical distancing rules mean we won’t be ‘back to normal’ for a while.
Virgin’s decision to move flights from Gatwick to Heathrow is a heavy blow for London’s second-largest airport.
Gatwick has already temporarily closed its North Terminal, and is only handling a few flights per day at present. It predicted two weeks ago that traffic probably won’t recover for four years.
BA warned last week that it might not reopen its operations at Gatwick, even after the lockdown eases.
In these circumstances, the case for a third runway at Heathrow to handle more flights looks less compelling. There’s clearly going to be less demand, and more spare capacity, for some time....
At this rate airports will be mothballing runways and terminals rather than fighting to build new ones...
— Anthony Baxter (@anthonysbaxter) May 5, 2020
Jim McMahon MP, Labour’s Shadow Transport Secretary, has called on the government to provide a rescue package for the airline industry before more jobs are lost:
“This terrible news is heartbreaking for Virgin Atlantic staff and their families, and another major blow for the aviation industry.
“The Government is failing workers by not stepping in and protecting these jobs.
“Labour has consistently argued for a sector specific deal for aviation, and the Government must do more to ensure airlines and airports can operate safely when the time is right to transition out of the lockdown.”
Here’s our news story on Virgin’s hefty job cuts.
Virgin Atlantic to close Gatwick operations and lose 3,000 workers https://t.co/NRMxfqmsnE
— Guardian Money (@guardianmoney) May 5, 2020
Pilots union: Shocking job cuts
BALPA, the pilots union, has called Virgin Atlantic’s job cuts a “terrible blow” to the UK airline industry.
They say 426 pilots are at risk across the workforce(alongside cabin crew, ground staff and office workers).
On Monday the union urged chancellor Rishi Sunak to implement a moratorium on job losses in the sector, warning that it faced a ‘death spiral’ otherwise.
BALPA general secretary Brian Strutton says today’s announcement from Virgin highlights the need for action:
“Our members and all staff in Virgin Atlantic will be shocked by the scale of this bombshell. We will be challenging Virgin very hard to justify this.
“My letter to the Chancellor yesterday is all the more significant - why is the Government sitting on its hands while aviation plunges further towards a death spiral? Government should call a moratorium on job losses in aviation and lead a planned recovery.”
✈️ Pilots union BALPA say 426 pilots are at risk of losing their job and they are “shocked by the scale of this bombshell”.
— Tom Boadle (@TomBoadle) May 5, 2020
They also claim the Treasury is “still prevaricating” over its support for Virgin Atlantic.
Virgin is scaling back its operations so sharply because it believes the industry might not recover from the coronavirus pandemic until 2023.
It says:
Following the pattern of previous crises including 9/11 and the Global Financial Crisis, capacity across the aviation industry will significantly reduce, with recovery to pre-crisis levels expected to take up to three years.
Uncertainty around when flying will resume, coupled with unprecedented market conditions brought on by the pandemic, has severely reduced revenues for the global aviation industry and Virgin Atlantic.
Virgin says it is now consulting with unions about its planned job cuts:
Even in the toughest times, the people of Virgin Atlantic are what sets it apart and decisions taken have been aimed at preserving as many jobs as possible.
In order for the airline to emerge from the crisis, regrettably it must reduce the number of people employed and today the company is announcing a planned reduction of 3,150 jobs across all functions. Working closely with unions BALPA and Unite, a company-wide consultation period of 45 days begins today.
Virgin Atlantic to cut 3,000 jobs
Newsflash: Virgin Atlantic is slashing more than 3,000 jobs as it tries to survive the impact of the Covid-19 crisis.
The airline has just announced that it has cutting 3,150 positions, which is nearly a third of its 10,000 workforce.
Virgin is also moving its flying programme from London Gatwick to Heathrow, and says it no longer plans to use all its 747-400S jets (although it hopes to return to Gatwick when demand picks up again).
It’s another blow to Britain’s airline industry. Last week, British Airways began consulting on up to 12,000 redundancies, and Ryanair is planning to cut 3,000 jobs.
Shai Weiss, Virgin Atlantic’s CEO, says the coronavirus crisis means it must cut costs - including reducing the number of staff.
“We have weathered many storms since our first flight 36 years ago, but none has been as devastating as Covid-19 and the associated loss of life and livelihood for so many.
“However, to safeguard our future and emerge a sustainably profitable business, now is the time for further action to reduce our costs, preserve cash and to protect as many jobs as possible. It is crucial that we return to profitability in 2021. This will mean taking steps to reshape and resize Virgin Atlantic in line with demand, while always keeping our people and customers at the heart of all we do.
Virgin also says it is still in “constructive discussions” about financial aid with several stakeholders, including the UK government.
More reaction to the German constitutional court ruling:
German Constitutional Court & ECB:
— Robin Brooks (@RobinBrooksIIF) May 5, 2020
1. Ruling is for "old" QE program (PSPP)
2. Not the current pandemic program (PEPP)
3. But markets will infer constraints on PEPP
4. Good news: "proportionality" easier to show for PEPP
5. Bad news: hurdle to up-sizing "small" PEPP has risen pic.twitter.com/SVKbHyY6yp
But the ECB says: who are you to decide on what one of the central banks in the Eurosystem needs to do and rightly so! Still Italian and Spanish spreads to pay the price of this crazy institutional set up by which not even the ECB is fully supranational! @TheGoldwatcher https://t.co/9oUVpNOgao
— Alicia GarciaHerrero (@Aligarciaherrer) May 5, 2020
On Wall Street, shares in pharmaceutical firm Pfizer have jumped 2% in pre-market trading after it began human trials of a Covid-19 vaccine.
Pfizer has teamed up with German pharmaceutical company BioNTech to test the potential vaccine on a group of US citizens. testing began in Germany last week.
If the tests are successful, they hope to have millions of vaccine doses available in 2020, increasing to hundreds of millions in 2021.
UPDATE: Together with @BioNTech_Group, we are proud to announce that the first participants have been dosed in our U.S. #ClinicalTrial Program for a potential #COVID19 #vaccine. Read more:
— Pfizer Inc. (@pfizer) May 5, 2020
Britons haven’t been buying cars, but they have been buying an awful lot of food - online - and probably won’t break the habit.
The latest data suggests that online grocery sales will surge by more than a quarter this year as the coronavirus lockdown prompts more families to shop from home.
With major supermarkets expanding their delivery networks to cope, these new customers are likely to stick with online orders rather than brave the shops as often again.
Italian government bonds have also been hit by the German constitutional court’s ultimatum to the European Central Bank to justify its QE stimulus programme.
The gap between the interest rate on Italian debt, and safe-haven German bunds, has widened - a sign that investors are a little more edgy.
Rightly so -- the ruling could undermine the ECB’s pledge to do ‘whatever it takes’ to hold the euro together. On the other hand, the ECB simply has to prove that buying up several trillion euros of sovereign debt was a proportionate response to the eurozone crisis....
Come on Christine...you know what you have to do
— Neil Wilson (@marketsneil) May 5, 2020
ITALY/GERMAN 10-YEAR BOND YIELD GAP WIDENS TO 250 BPS DE10IT10=RR, ITALY 10-YEAR BOND YIELDS UP 18 BPS ON DAY AT 1.94%
The recovery in the oil price is helping to lift Britain’s stock market.
Shares in BP and Royal Dutch Shell are up around 5%, pushing the FTSE 100 index up by 1.2% or 72 points to 5826.
Craig Erlam of trading firm OANDA explains:
Production cuts combined with reopening measures across the US and Europe seem to be behind the rally in oil prices, although we’re still at extremely low levels and capacity is still fast running out.
But some UK-focused firms are under pressure today, with high street chain Next down 2.7%, and online estate agent Rightmove losing 1.5%.
The oil price is rallying today, on hopes that demand will rise as countries start to ease their lockdowns.
US crude oil has jumped by 10%, or nearly $2 per barrel, to $22.33. Still low by historic standards, but a sign that traders are less worried about the crude glut.
Brent crude has jumped 7% to $29.40 per barrel.
Last night, California announced that some businesses can restart operations on Friday, with restrictions to protect customers. Italy has begun to partially lift some of its restrictions, and Turkey is planning to allow more movement and shop openings too.
Analyst Vandana Hari suggests the oil price has ‘turned a corner’ as economies emerge from their deep freeze. However, there’s a risk of a second spike in infections which could force new lockdown measures, hurting economies again.....
#Brent comfortably above $28/barrel and #WTI eying $22 early Tue in Asia. Levels not seen since mid-Apr. Buoyed by reopenings, upbeat mood in financial markets. The #oil market may just have turned a corner - provided no second waves of #Covid-19 (fingers crossed!) #OOTT pic.twitter.com/OVDrjnGq8u
— Vandana Hari (@VandanaHari_SG) May 5, 2020
Here’s our news story on the slump in UK car sales:
Back in the UK, fast food chain McDonalds is taking its first step towards reopening from the lockdown, by naming the 15 restaurants that will start offering deliveries next week.
They all appear to be in the South, with two in Chelmsford, while Luton-based burger and nugget lovers are spoiled with three stores.
We are pleased to confirm the 15 restaurants we will open for McDelivery only from 13th May. pic.twitter.com/WkGsAjg83M
— McDonald's UK (@McDonaldsUK) May 5, 2020
Following our operational test, we have reviewed our limited menu and will add the Vegetable Deluxe to the menu and Veggie Dippers to both our main menu and Happy Meal.
— McDonald's UK (@McDonaldsUK) May 5, 2020
Updated
Legal experts and investors are still digesting the German constitutional court’s ruling -- but ING analyst Carsten Brzeski reckons it’s a “big bang”.
Brzeski says the most relevant part of today’s ruling is the part prohibiting the Bundesbank to participate in QE unless the ECB proves that the programme is truly proportional (ie, that buying government bonds is justified by the economic and financial problems in the euro area).
An optimistic interpretation could be this is lots of barking without biting and that everything is fine as long as the ECB demonstrates that it has thought through the economic consequences of its decisions but a pessimistic interpretation could be no amount of additional ECB analysis will convince German judges and could, therefore spell the end of QE.
Eurozone: Big bang from Karlsruhe | Snap | ING Think - It will take some time to fully understand the implications of the German Constitutional court's ruling on the ECB’s quantitative easing programme… https://t.co/lbTtsS6uT2
— Carsten Brzeski (@carstenbrzeski) May 5, 2020
German constitutional court rules on ECB bond-buying
The euro is sliding after Germany’s constitutional court issued a long-awaited ruling on the legality of the European Central Bank’s massive asset-purchase programme.
The judges in Karlsruhe appear to have dropped quite a bombshell -- instructing the Bundesbank that it must drop out of the Public Sector Purchase Programme unless the ECB proves, within three months, that the PSPP is needed.
The ECB has already bought billions of euros of government bonds under the programme, which was created by former president Mario Draghi during the debt crisis.
The court has considered a claim that PSPP was illegal as it amounted to the direct financing of eurozone governments. They concluded that the ECB needs to prove that the programme is justified, through “a proportionality assessment”.
“The Bundesbank may thus no longer participate in the implementation and execution of the ECB decisions at issue, unless the ECB Governing Council adopts a new decision that demonstrates...the PSPP are not disproportionate to the economic and fiscal policy effects.
Significantly, though, the ruling does not apply to the ECB’s new €750bn stimulus programme -- the pandemic emergency purchasing programme (PEPP).
But it does still raise serious questions about the future of the ECB’s money-printing programmes, especially if the ECB doesn’t address these concerns.
The euro has dropped by three-quarters of a cent in response, to $1.0833, amid concerns that the PEPP could be challenged next.
David Madden of CMC Markets says:
The ruling means the Bundesbank- the German central bank – can’t participate in the ECB’s stimulus scheme beyond three months, unless the ECB can come up with a new arrangement.
Today’s news mean the ECB’s pandemic stimulus package could face legal challenges too.
.@ECB has been weakened: the cover provided by Luxembourg Court is gone. ECB no longer has “broad discretion” to do "whatever it takes" with limited judicial review (see 73, Weiss). It now has to motivate its actions--to judges who show no knowledge of econ pic.twitter.com/YBHRy8JaBR
— Luis Garicano (@lugaricano) May 5, 2020
-End of Central Bank independence: German Government & Bundestag invited to inquiry ECB
— SEBASTIEN COCHARD (@SebCochard_11) May 5, 2020
-Risk of unwinding of 2019 policies (maintaining stable PSPP holdings & relaunch in November)
-Implicit strict limits put on PEPP: capital keys, 33%, no holding until maturity =No monetisation https://t.co/xKGDvKCWhm
This is the big risk. New court cases will come immediately in Germany against PEPP. The Court insists in the ridiculous distinction between monetary policy and economic policy and wants proportionality in its effects. Can a German economist explain what this means? https://t.co/2J5kdGX8Y6
— Vitor Constâncio (@VMRConstancio) May 5, 2020
Updated
Hugo Boss struggles but Hello Fresh thrives under lockdown
Hugo Boss, the German fashion house known for its sharp suits, has warned that things will get worse before they get better.
It expects sales in the second quarter to fall by at least 50% following a 17% decline in the first quarter as it had to shut its stores because of the covid-19 pandemic, but hopes for a recovery from the summer.
All of its own stores and concessions have reopened in China since the end of March and sales in April were “only” 15%-20% lower than a year earlier. Hugo Boss has also been producing 200,000 reusable face masks to be donated to public institutions.
There is obviously less demand for smart suits when people aren’t going to the office … meanwhile, the Berlin-based meal kit delivery firm HelloFresh is thriving. It delivered 111.3m meal kits in the first three months of the year as the Covid-19 lockdowns boosted demand for its pre-portioned ingredients and easy-to-cook recipes.
HelloFresh now expects revenues to grow by 40% to 55% this year, rather than the previously estimated 22% to 27%.
Dominik Richter, the chief executive who co-founded the firm in 2011, says:
“On top of our already very strong first two months of the year, our meals have attracted significant additional demand in the second half of March, as the global pandemic hit all of our markets in short order.”
UK private sector output slumps amid lockdown
We also have confirmation that Britain’s economy suffered a painful slump last month, as the Covid-19 lockdown suppressed activity.
Data firm Markit has reported that its ‘composite PMI’ index, which tracks activity across the private sector, fell to just 13.8 last month from 36 in March.
Any reading below 50 shows a contraction, and this is the worst on record (going back to 1998) - by a long way!
The service sector was particularly grim, as Markit explains, with most firms reporting a drop in business activity -- either due to business closures, shutdowns among clients or shrinking sales due to a slump in non-essential spending.
New work, backlogs and employment across the service economy also slumped at a record pace.
09:30:08
— Neil Wilson (@marketsneil) May 5, 2020
U.K. (APR) MARKIT COMPOSITE PMI ACTUAL: 13.8 VS 12.9 PREVIOUS; EST 12.9
09:30:03
UK MARKIT (APR) SERVICES PMI ACTUAL: 13.4 VS 12.3 PREVIOUS; EST 12.3
Tim Moore, economics director at IHS Markit, says the reports shows Britain is entering its worst recession in many decades.
“April’s PMI data highlights that the downturn in the UK economy during the second quarter of 2020 will be far deeper and more widespread than anything seen in living memory.
Historical comparisons of the PMI with GDP indicate that the April survey reading is consistent with the economy falling at a quarterly rate of approximately 7%, but we expect the actual decline in GDP could be even greater, in part because the PMI excludes the vast majority of the self-employed and the retail sector.
Just one-in-five service providers managed to avoid a drop in business activity since March, and those hardest hit by social distancing measures and travel restrictions often reported complete stoppages of business operations.”
Some early reaction:
Clearly something along these lines was to be expected given the lockdown, but the 97% collapse in car sales in April is nonetheless something to behold. Chart from @SMMT gives a bit of historical context. pic.twitter.com/qYrBIfINRV
— Ed Conway (@EdConwaySky) May 5, 2020
Indices of crisis mismanagement. Britain’s new car sales dropped by a staggering 97% in April according the industry body. Just 4,321 registrations -the worst sales since WWII. Similar falls in Italy and other European economies. And UK’s wage subsidy lasts just 3 months! #cliff
— Mark Kenny (@markgkenny) May 5, 2020
Mike Hawes, SMMT chief executive, warns that the slump in car sales is bad news for Britain’s auto manufacturing industry:
“With the UK’s showrooms closed for the whole of April, the market’s worst performance in living memory is hardly surprising. These figures, however, still make for exceptionally grim reading, not least for the hundreds of thousands of people whose livelihoods depend on the sector. A strong new car market supports a healthy economy and as Britain starts to plan for recovery, we need car retail to be in the vanguard.
Safely restarting this most critical sector and revitalising what will, inevitably, be subdued demand will be key to unlocking manufacturing and accelerating the UK’s economic regeneration.”
Thanks to Tesla, sales of battery-powered electric cars in Britain only fell 9.7% last month. Everything else plummeted drastically:
Updated
Tesla’s new Model 3 was the biggest-selling model last month -- as Elon Musk’s electric car company continued to deliver to customers despite the lockdown.
Some 658 Model 3s were registered -- 15% of all car sales in April, but almost three-quarters of those bought by private buyers.
So @SteveFowler called it right - the biggest selling car in the UK in April was Tesla Model 3.
— Peter Campbell (@Petercampbell1) May 5, 2020
(Tesla delivery services were still operating)
PLUS, given there were only 871 retail purchases in the month, it looks like 3/4 of people who bought a car last month bought a Tesla! pic.twitter.com/hCTvoeiS3f
SMMT: UK car sales in record slump
Newsflash: It’s official -- Britain’s car industry has suffered its worst ever plunge in sales.
New car registration’s tumbled by 97.3% in April, compared to a year ago, with just 4321 new cars sold - down from 161,000 a year ago.
Most of those were ‘fleet purchases’, with only 871 private buyers -- mainly key workers.
The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders says is a record slump, and is urging the government to allow car showrooms to reopen once the lockdown starts to lift.
As we flagged earlier, it appears to be the worst month for car sales since 1946, as the nation’s car showrooms shut down.
The SMMT’s latest report, just released, shows:
- UK new car market falls by precipitous -97.3% in April as coronavirus crisis shuts showrooms.
- 4,321 new cars registered in the month as deliveries continue to frontline workers and organisations.
- Latest SMMT outlook expects 1.68 million new car registrations this year, the lowest since 1992.
- Sector calls for auto retail to be in first wave of re-openings, to drive manufacturing and kick-start economic recovery.
The SMMT adds:
The decline was the steepest of modern times, and is in line with similar falls across Europe, with France -88.8% down and the Italian market falling -97.5% in April.
Fleet orders represented by far the bulk of the market, taking 71.5% market share, equivalent to 3,090 units, while private buyers registered just 871 cars – a year on year fall of –98.7%.
Updated
Ian Plummer, commercial director at Auto Trader, says few car retailers were able to adapt to the UK’s lockdown:
“With retailers forced to close the doors to their physical forecourts, it’ll come as no surprise to anyone to see just how dramatic an impact it’s had on the new car market,” he wrote.
“Some brands have been able to sell remotely, but uncertainty in the government’s guidelines or a lack of the required infrastructure to operate home delivery in a safe way, has limited it to all but a handful of retailers.
“Whilst the market is down significantly, our data does point to a market that has been paused, rather than stopped, and ready to return to health quickly once the restrictions have been lifted.
Coronavirus: Lockdown forces new car sales to skid to a halt in April https://t.co/Rdiw4muKWH
— SkyNews (@SkyNews) May 5, 2020
Seán Kemple, Director of Sales at Close Brothers Motor Finance, predicts the ‘drastic’ slump in car sales in April might rebound once the economy is unlocked - but 2020 will still be tough for manufacturers.
“When the lockdown does begin to lift, we should see pent-up demand released, triggering a sharp rise in sales of the cars sitting in showrooms; we’ve already seen this in the European used car market as dealers review and reprice their stock after lockdown. But after an inevitable uplift, the future is less certain.
We might start to see supply issues, held up by restrictions on manufacturing and the stalling of overseas shipment. In the longer-term, demand trends may change. We know that in times of economic hardship, buyers often shift from new to used cars in order to get their hands on a more affordable vehicle.
Conversely, some people might be too nervous to use public transport for fear of catching Covid-19, and drive to work instead, he adds.
European stock markets have bounced back in early trading, on hopes that Covid-19 restrictions will ease soon.
In London, the FTSE 100 index has jumped by 92 points or 1.6%, back to 5846 points.
Mining companies are leading the rally, along with oil giants... and cruise operator Carnival (+4.5%) which is restarting some sailings (from Florida and Texas) in August.
The Europe-wide Stoxx 600 has risen by 1.6%, clawing back a chunk of yesterday’s losses (when it fell 2.7%).
Connor Campbell of SpreadEx says:
With Boris Johnson likely to unveil some form of lockdown plan this week, Italy and Spain easing restrictions, and California to follow suit on Friday, investors decided to turn away from the US-China tensions to focus on the idea that the worst part of the pandemic may be approaching its end.
Updated
Ryanair passengers down 99%
Budget airlines also had a torrid April.
Ryanair has told the City that passenger numbers fell 99.6% last month, to just 40,000 from 13.5m a year ago.
It warns that the next two months will be equally quiet:
Due to multiple EU Govt flight bans and restrictions, Ryanair expects to carry minimal traffic during the months of May and June as well.
Rival budget airline Wizz Air has reported a 97.6% drop in passengers in April. But it expects a pick-up this month, as it’s resumed flights from Luton to Vienna.
As well as weak sales, the car industry is also suffering from supply chain disruption due to Covid-19.
Stefan Sommer, Volkswagen’s board member for procurement, has told the Financial Times that the cost of crucial car components has risen sharply because of the coronavirus outbreak. Part makers have hiked their prices, he says, because their own output has fallen.
Sommer predicted that the cost of sourcing parts would “rise in the classic value chain”.
“Now there are depreciations, while the overhead costs remain and they can’t be reduced overnight.”
Volkswagen warns of rising costs as car market faces deep recession https://t.co/LP0eaCaUdU via @financialtimes
— Patrick McGee (@PatrickMcGee_) May 5, 2020
Obviously no-one expected car registrations to go up last month, but a 97% plunge in sales is quite startling - and means 2020 will be a grim year for the industry.
UK car sales pretty much cease to exist in April; new car market plummets 97% says @SMMT as showrooms shut up; an extraordinary economic stat in an era of extraordinary stats
— Helia Ebrahimi (@heliaebrahimi) May 5, 2020
🚨UK new car sales ⬇️ 97% in April🚨
— Peter Campbell (@Petercampbell1) May 5, 2020
🚘 Worst month since 1946
🚘 2020 forecast cut to 1.68m
🚘 UK set for worst year since 1992
Full details at 9am. pic.twitter.com/pSurppJWFf
Introduction: UK car sales 'weakest since 1946'
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.
The full scale of the crisis facing Britain’s car industry will be laid bare today, when official figures show just how few vehicles were sold during last month’s lockdown.
Preliminary industry figures show that sales tumbled by 97% in April, with around 4,000 new cars registered. With car showrooms closed and people restricted from non-essential shopping, potential customers were unwilling or simply unable to buy a new car.
That would be the lowest level since 1946, Reuters has calculated - down from over 160,000 in April 2019.
It explains:
In February 1946, just a few months after the end of World War Two, just 4,044 new cars were sold in Britain, which was still undergoing rationing and trying to rebuild after wartime destruction, under its first majority Labour government.
Last month, around 4,000 cars were registered with most of the sales being fleet purchases, according to preliminary data from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT).
UK new car sales fall to lowest level since 1946 - just 4,000 sold in April, mostly fleet sales to companies (via @cpitas) https://t.co/JB5JVcpshp
— David Milliken (@david_milliken) May 5, 2020
The SMMT publishes the full data at 9am.
Watch out for @SMMT April new car registration figures, due to release later this morning.
— @Statsman (@DossaAnand) May 5, 2020
To recap: overall registrations fell by 44.4% in March as showrooms closed.
Steeper fall than during last financial crisis and worst March since late nineties.https://t.co/GACkwCmWWn… pic.twitter.com/7ncySMbFXe
Also coming up today
Updated surveys of purchasing managers will confirm that economic activity slumped in the UK last month. The earlier ‘flash’ PMI report, issued last month, crashed to just 12.3 - the weakest reading on record.
🇬🇧 #UK APR PRELIMINARY PMI MANUFACTURING: 32.9 V 42.0E (record low)
— Christophe Barraud🛢 (@C_Barraud) April 23, 2020
- PMI Services: 12.3 v 27.8e (ecord low)
- PMI Composite: 12.9 v 29.5e (record low)
*Link: https://t.co/flpHaKFJxL pic.twitter.com/R9mk9Ic9kR
Investors will also keep an eye on Germany’s constitutional court. It’s due to rule on the legality of the European Central Bank’s government bond purchase programme, created to save the euro during the debt crisis.
A group of German academics have long argued that this quantitative easing is illegal, as the ECB is effectively financing governments.
As the ECB is now firing up the programme again to address the Covid-19 crisis, there would be major shockwaves if the Constitutional Judges rule against it. They’re resisted such a bombshell in the past, though.
The agenda
- 8.30am BST: Swedish Q1 GDP
- 9am BST: UK car sales for April
- 9.30am BST: UK Service Sector PMI for April (final reading)
- 3pm BST: US Service Sector PMI for April (final reading)
