Closing summary
- Non-essential retailers in England were allowed to open their doors to customers for the first time in 12 weeks today
- EasyJet also made its first scheduled flight since late March. That flight took off from Gatwick to Glasgow this morning
- However, stocks tumbled across, Asia, Europe and the US amid fears that a second coronavirus outbreak may be on the horizon
- BP told shareholders that it could write down the value of its assets by up to $17.5bn (£14bn) as it reduced its long-term forecast for oil prices and warned that the Covid-19 pandemic would have a lasting impact on the global economy
- Germany’s economic ministry said the worst of the pandemic’s hit to its economy might be over. It believes the economic revival likely started in May
- Travis Perkins, the builders’ merchant, is cutting 2,500 jobs in the UK, almost a tenth of its workforce, and closing 165 stores
- Nationwide is approaching around 200 staff with potential redundancy offers, as it tries to weather the pandemic and lower-than-expected interest rates
- A UK-EU statement solidified the fact that no extension will be sought for the Brexit transition period beyond 31 December
That’s all from us today. We’ll be back from 8am tomorrow. Stay safe –KM
Brexit transition period to end on 31 December
A UK-EU statement being reported by Reuters seems to be solidifying the fact that no extension will be sought for the Brexit transition period.
The statement notes that the UK has decided not to request any extension and that the transition period will therefore end on 31 December in line with the withdrawal agreement.
It adds that the parties welcome the ‘constructive discussions’ on the future relationship between the EU and UK teams, and that talks should involve finding an early understanding of the principles underlying any agreement.
US stocks tumble at the open
Investors have also started to pull out of US stocks, sending major indices into the red at start of trading.
- Dow is down 2.3% at 25,001 points
- S&P 500 is down 2% at 2,980 points
- Nasdaq is down 1.5% at 9,441 points
Updated
A glimpse of London’s west end shopping scene from Bloomberg’s Deirdre Hipwell.
(Worth a watch, if only for the opening dance clip)
Updated
Birmingham shoppers returned to the high street with many in the rest of England on Monday, as queues formed at “non-essential” retail names such as Zara, H&M, Sports Direct and Primark, our retail correspondent Sarah Butler writes.
But any retailer hoping for a Christmas-style frenzy would have been disappointed. New Street station was quiet and shoppers said they had no trouble finding a parking spot.
Nonetheless, Birmingham was busier than it had been for months and shoppers were prepared to queue up outside stores, all of which have to limit the number of customers under new government rules.
The restrictions meant waiting more than an hour to get into some favoured stores and there were few places to try on clothes, as changing rooms remained shut in most stores. At the Apple store there was a two-hour wait for the technical support desk.
The Bull Ring shopping centre was also quiet as its coffee shops and restaurants are still shut, while stores including its large Debenhams and Victoria’s Secret are shuttered after calling in administrators.
Eve Dunne, 16, sisters Anisa and Aliyah Scott (15 and 13) and Izzah Al, 15, said they were first in the queue for Primark after arriving in town at 4am. “We wanted to be first but there wasn’t a massive queue,” said Anisa.
“I wanted to get some joggers and some earrings. We wanted to go to Victoria’s Secret as well but I think it’s gone bust.” Dunne added that they enjoyed being able to get up when they want and do school work when it suits them. “I’ll be coming every day,” she said.
We’ve seen some paring of losses across major European stock markets.
The FTSE 100 – which started off the day down 2.1% and below the 6,000-point mark – is the worst performer among its European peers but is now only down around 1.1%.
Airlines including BA-owner IAG and EasyJet have logged the largest declines on blue chip index, each down around 5.3%.
That’s despite easyJet resuming flights this morning.
Boris Johnson’s spokesman has said a comprehensive review of the 2-metre physical distancing rule will be completed in the coming weeks, according to Reuters.
The spokesman added that the prime minister will try to give as much notice as possible to the hospitality sector on re-opening plans.
On travel, the spokesman said that the aim is to open the UK up for travel as soon as it is safe to do so and that the work on travel corridors is continuing.
Updated
Curious what people are buying in shops today?
Here’s a glimpse of what is popular at John Lewis, according to Mirror’s business editor:
Nationwide is approaching around 200 staff with potential redundancy offers, as it tries to weather the pandemic and lower-than-expected interest rates.
The building society is hoping that around 100 of those workers end up accepting the offers.
The news, first reported by Reuters and confirmed by the Guardian, comes just months after Nationwide announced it was giving plans to enter the business banking market.
However, it is not yet clear which teams at the bank are being approached.
The building society is trying to establish whether any of the staff would choose to leave voluntarily, so that compulsory redundancies can be avoided, according to a source with knowledge of the matter.
A spokeswoman for Nationwide said:
We have made a commitment that there will be no compulsory redundancies this year.
However, as a result of the low interest rate environment and the impact of Covid, it is only right that we continually review staffing levels to ensure we run the society efficiently.
We are currently consulting on potential redundancies with a number of individuals, where possible these will be based on individual preference and we will look to re-skill and re-deploy people.
Travis Perkins, the builders’ merchant, is cutting 2,500 jobs in the UK, almost a tenth of its workforce, and closing 165 stores as it expects weaker demand for materials in the next two years in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic.
Travis Perkins has started a consultation of its staff on the job cuts and the branch closures, which will reduce its network by 8%. The job losses will also affect non-store roles in distribution, administrative and sales, and reduce its 30,000-strong workforce by 9%.
The branch closures will mostly affect the builders’ merchant businesses, in particular the Travis Perkins chain, focusing on small branches where it is difficult to implement physical-distancing rules, or where profits will be wiped out by lower trade.
Nick Roberts, the chief executive, said:
While we have experienced improving trends more recently, we do not expect a return to pre-Covid trading conditions for some time and consequently we have had to take the very difficult decision to begin consultations on the closure of selected branches and to reduce our workforce to ensure we can protect the group as a whole. This is in no way a reflection on those employees impacted and we will do everything we can to support them during this process.
The company is the UK’s largest distributor of building materials and owns a number of chains including the DIY retailer Wickes and Toolstation, with more than 2,000 branches around the country.
We’re expecting further declines on Wall Street when US stocks open for trading this afternoon.
Dow futures are down 1.8%, S&P 500 futures are down 1.6% and Nasdaq futures are down 1.3%. It comes amid fears that the US may have to shut its economy down again if the Covid-19 oubreak gets out of control.
Naeem Aslam, chief market analyst at AvaTrade, says that could prompt a fresh low for US stocks.
The surge in the new coronavirus infection rate in the US has become the biggest concern for investors and this is denting the sentiment. For speculators, this is like Christmas coming early, they have been labelling the stock market rally as one of the most unloved rallies in the history of trading.
Yes, valuations and S&P multiples didn’t make much sense with respect to the economic growth, but the hope among the optimistic investors was that as the US economy begins to open up, multiples and valuations will adjust. But perhaps, what investor forgot to factor in is what we are experiencing now: surge in coronavirus cases as the economy reopens.
As discussed previously, the fact is that the US never had complete control of the coronavirus in the first place. This is especially true if we compare the US controlling of the virus with other countries.
The concern is that what will happen if these coronavirus cases continue to rise and the US will have to shut down the country again?
Steven Mnuchin, the Treasury secretary, has already said that the US isn’t prepared to shut the economy, but the reality is that if the health situation begins to get out of control, the US will have no other choice but to slam the breaks. This particular scenario could bring the stocks down to coronavirus’ low.
Our researcher and writer Jason Rodrigues is out in London’s Oxford Street.
He says the only long queues have been outside the Nike store and Primark. More shoppers are arriving now, and the sun is really starting to beat down.
Bad news for shoppers trying to get into Primark in London’s Westfield shopping centre.
Bloomberg reporter Jess Shankleman says shoppers are being turned away now due to a fault with the fire alarm.
A report out this morning hones in on the hesitation that many would-be shoppers in England are feeling as shops re-open.
Visa found that nearly three quarters (73%) of Brits have concerns about small businesses reopening as lockdown measures ease, and three in five (61%) feel less comfortable shopping in store than before the pandemic.
It adds that only 54% of Brits will only return to physical stores if strict social distancing is in place, while one in five (18%) will not return until a vaccine is developed.
However, in a slight glimmer of hope for local businesses, four in five consumers (82%) said they plan to spend more with small businesses than they did before lockdown. And one in every two Brits said they have been shopping at a small business (either in store or online) at least once a week during lockdown.
Still, more than half of small business owners (56%) are worried they will not be able to bounce back following Covid-19, the report said.
Retailers are appealing to customers to support their local shops to help them survive the coronavirus pandemic, which has devastated high street trade, Zoe Wood writes.
“It’s really important people go back to using their high street,” said Gary Grant, the owner of toy chain The Entertainer. “We employ local people in local towns and if I want to hold on to my staff I need turnover.”
The lockdown has cost non-food retailers £1.7bn a week in lost sales, according to the Office for National Statistics.
The number of people venturing out to shop in May was just 20% of those out and about last year, according to the monthly British Retail Consortium-ShopperTrak survey. Despite the lifting of restrictions, the BRC experts predict only a modest pick-up in the coming days.
Helen Dickinson, the chief executive of the British Retail Consortium (BRC), said that even as retailers reopened there was “still a risk that many physical shops could end up closing their doors again – only this time, permanently”.
The BRC said retailers were in dire straits, and called on the government to temporarily cut VAT to help boost demand.
Dickinson said:
A mix of low consumer confidence and limits on the number of people able to enter stores mean that many shops will continue to suffer lower footfall – and lower sales – for some time to come.
Chinese retail sales figures released overnight suggest consumers are slow to return to previous shopping habits as the pandemic drags on.
Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets UK, explains:
Since lockdown measures were eased in March, Chinese consumers have proved to be somewhat reluctant to go out and spend, with retail sales since then well below the levels of last year.
At this time last year retail sales were rising at an average 8% year on year. Contrast that to this year and we’ve seen four monthly declines in a row, with the latest retail sales for May coming in this morning at -2.8%.
While these numbers have slowly improved from the over 20% decline seen in February, they speak to a marked reluctance by Chinese consumers to unlock the purse strings, which if repeated across the world is likely to see a similarly slow and protracted rebound.
This is in stark contrast to the v-shaped rebound being modelled by a lot of economists and analysts, and as such perhaps helps explain why financial markets are so nervous as we start a new week very much on the back foot.
Shoppers are queuing up for post-lockdown openings across the country, including this Primark outlet in Bristol.
Germany's economic recovery likely started in May
Germany’s economic ministry says the country’s economic output will face a greater decline in the second quarter than in the first...but that the easing of lockdown restrictions and key indicators suggest the worst might be over.
According to the ministry’s monthly report, Germany’s economic revival likely started in May, Reuters said.
However, the report warned that the recovery in the second half of the year would be sluggish and that leading economic indicators did not point to a sustainable recovery in the job market over the coming months.
Both exports and imports are expected to suffer a significant decline over 2020 as a whole.
Updated
A quick note on one of the few economic data points being released today.
Italian consumer prices for May contracted -0.2%, both on a month-on-month and annual basis. That is worse than the previous readings of -0.1%.
The final reading for EU-harmonised consumer prices for Italy have also been revised lower from -0.2% to -0.3% on an annual basis.
It’s more than just shops re-starting this morning.
EasyJet has made its first scheduled flight since late March. That flight, pictured here, took off from Gatwick to Glasgow this morning.
As our transport correspondent Gwyn Topham writes, only 10 aircraft of the airline’s fleet of more than 300 will be in service on Monday, operating domestic flights between airports including Bristol, Liverpool, Belfast and Newcastle, as well as services within continental Europe around Switzerland, France, Italy and Portugal.
A total of 310 flights are scheduled this week.
Life on board will be, for now, very different. Face coverings are to become mandatory on planes and advisory throughout the airports, as on all UK public transport from Monday.
Trolley service is to be scrapped or reduced, distancing enforced where possible, toilet visits discouraged, and enough reminders plastered around to wash hands and not touch anything as to make the hardiest traveller a nervous germophobe.
While most will welcome the focus on safety, the experience is likely to become – more than ever – an endurance test rather than a pleasure.
You can read the full story here:
Not a lot of cheer across oil markets either, where Brent crude prices are down more than 3% and WTI is down around 4.2%.
Looks like fears of a second wave of infections is weighing on hopes of a recovery in fuel demand.
Investors are dropping BP stock after the oil giant revealed its planned write-offs on the back of revised oil price forecasts.
That sentiment is also weighing on energy provider Centrica.
Meanwhile, there is only one stock trading in positive territory this morning, and that’s Bunzl.
That’s after the packaging firm said that, thanks to better than expected trading, it plans to “repay employee-related government support packages and bring forward the settlement of tax deferrals where possible to do so.”
European stocks tumble at the open
It’s a sea of red across major European stock markets, extending losses seen across Asia:
- FTSE 100 falls 2.1%
- France’s CAC 40 falls 2.7%
- Spain’s IBEX falls 2.7%
- Germany’s DAX falls 2.4%
- Europe’s STOXX 600 is down 2%
BP cuts oil price forecasts by 30%, plans $17.5bn in write-offs
BP has announced write-offs of up to $17.5bn as it expects the Covid-19 pandemic to have a lasting impact on the global economy and reduce demand for energy over a longer period, and to speed up the shift to a lower carbon economy.
The energy giant now expects Brent crude oil to average around $55 a barrel between 2021 and 2050, and $2.90 per million British thermal units for Henry Hub gas, the benchmark for natural gas. The new forecasts are 27% and 31% lower respectively than the average prices used in its latest annual report.
BP’s management also expects that the aftermath of the pandemic will accelerate the pace of transition to a lower carbon economy and energy system, as countries seek to make their economies more resilient in the future.
BP chief executive Bernard Looney said:
So, we have reset our price outlook to reflect that impact and the likelihood of greater efforts to ‘build back better’ towards a Paris-consistent world. We are also reviewing our development plans.
All that will result in a significant charge in our upcoming results, but I am confident that these difficult decisions - rooted in our net zero ambition and reaffirmed by the pandemic - will better enable us to compete through the energy transition.
The full story will be up shortly.
Updated
Introduction: Stocks falls as second wave fears rise
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.
It’s the day that England’s shop owners have anxiously waited for since March.
Non-essential retailers are allowed to open their doors to customers for the first time in 12 weeks today, as the UK government continues to ease lockdown restrictions in an attempt jumpstart a spiralling economy. (A reminder that shops in Northern Ireland have been open since Friday)
But even if the predicted crowds of shoppers start to flock to the high street, few will recognise the new systems in place meant to keep consumers and workers safe. (Think no dressing rooms, quarantines for touched items, and loads of extra sanitising along the way.)
However, Westminster’s attempts to return to some semblance of economic normality come amid fears that a second coronavirus outbreak may be on the horizon.
Those concerns have hit equity markets, sending Hong Kong’s Hang Sang down more than 2%, the Shanghai Composite down 0.6% and Australia’s ASX down 2.7%. European shares are also called lower.
On Monday, Beijing authorities announced 49 new coronavirus cases leading to a lockdown of residential compounds and officials being sacked. Health officials have now warned the risk of the outbreak worsening is “very high.”
Meanwhile, the World Health Organisation has warned that England’s lockdown should stay in place until the government’s contract tracing system has been proven to be “robust and effective.”
Investors will be cautiously watching for any signs of a rise in infections.
Not much on the economic calendar today, but stay tuned for our rolling coverage of the latest financial and economic news.
The agenda
- 9am BST: Italian HICP for May (final reading)
- 3pm BST: US Empire State manufacturing survey (June)