Kalyeena Makortoff 

UK borrowing hits record £55bn in May; retail sales rebound – as it happened

Rolling coverage of the latest business news, as new public data reveals the costs of the Covid-19 pandemic
  
  

Shoppers shelter under an umbrella as they walk past sale signs in the rain on Oxford Street in London.
Shoppers shelter under an umbrella as they walk past sale signs in the rain on Oxford Street in London. Photograph: Tolga Akmen/AFP/Getty Images

Closing summary

  • We also learned that retail sales rebounded in May with sales rising 12% month-on-month. That is a significant improvement from the -18% contraction in April
  • The Office for Budget Responsibility updated its analysis on the economic impact of the Covid-19 crisis. It said “GDP and overall tax receipts have performed a little less badly than assumed, while average earnings have fallen less sharply”
  • The Bank of England announced it was scaling back its 7-day US dollar repo operations, which was one of the measures meant prevent the financial system grinding to a halt at the start of the Covid-19 crisis
  • The competition watchdog launched an investigation into four pharmacies and convenience stores suspected of charging “excessive and unfair prices” for hand sanitiser
  • The pound fell below $1.24 for the first time since 1 June, and hit its lowest level against the euro since late March, as investors digested yesterday’s BoE stimulus measures and the data this morning
  • The CEO of crisis-hit payment group Wirecard resigned just a day after the company said that €1.9bn worth of cash seemed to be missing

That’s all from us today. We’ll be back on Monday. Have a good weekend and stay safe –KM

Wall Street is open for trading and it’s a strong positive start for US stocks:

  • S&P 500 is up1.1% at 3,150 points
  • Dow is up 1.2% at 26,395 points
  • Nasdaq is up 0.98% at 10,040

The pound is now at its lowest level against the euro since late March.

Comments out of a meeting of EU leaders are not raising hopes of a smooth end to the Brexit transition period.

European Council president Charles Michel said that they need to intensify negotiations with Britain and are committed to a deal, but not at any cost.

US futures are pointing to a positive open on Wall Street in less than an hour’s time:

  • Dow futures are up 1.3%
  • S&P 500 futures are up 1.1%.
  • Nasdaq futures are up 0.99%

Meanwhile, European stocks have extended their gains since this morning:

  • FTSE 100 is up 1%
  • Germany’s XETRA DAX is up nearly 1.%
  • France’s CAC 40 is up 1.4%
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB is up 1.1%

OBR: GDP decline was smaller than assumed during pandemic

Following the borrowing data release this morning, the Office for Budget Responsibility has updated its analysis of Covid-19’s impact on the UK economy:

Relative to our reference scenario, initial estimates show that GDP and overall tax receipts have performed a little less badly than assumed, while average earnings have fallen less sharply.

The headline unemployment measure has yet to show much effect from the crisis, but the claimant count measure that relates directly to benefit claims has climbed very sharply.

However, it added that:

Today’s data highlight the gathering fiscal impact of the coronavirus crisis, but the numbers will be prone to revision. It will be many months before the true scale of the shock becomes clear

But mark your calendars, because on 14 July the OBR will publish three scenarios showing different degrees of scarring from the coronavirus pandemic on public finances:

Updated

Newsflash: Spain is expecting a decision in the coming hours as it negotiates with the UK over a travel corridor that would avoid quarantine.

That’s according to Reuters citing a foreign ministry source.

We’ll bring you more details as we get them.

UK Finance says lenders have granted 1.9m mortgage payment holidays over the past three months.

It means one in six mortgages in the UK are now part of a temporary deferred payment plan, which on average is worth £755 per month.

But for those that might still be facing trouble, the FCA earlier this month extended the payments freeze period that banks were allowed to grant to customers impacted by Covid-19 to the end of October. (And you’ll remember this morning that a similar extension was granted on the payments freeze for personal loans and credit cards).

UK Finance said that homeowners who have requested a payment holiday will be contacted by their banks as the payments freeze comes to an end so they can consider their next steps.

The banking lobby group said:

Borrowers who can afford to resume payments should do so, as it will always be in their best interests in the long run. However, for those who can’t, then help is at hand. Where possible, borrowers will be able to explore their options online.

Wirecard CEO resigns amid accounting scandal

The CEO of crisis-hit payment group Wirecard has resigned just a day after the company said that €1.9bn worth of cash seemed to be missing. (That’s roughly a quarter of its total balance sheet.)

In an incredibly short market statement, Wirecard said:

In mutual consent with the Supervisory Board of Wirecard AG, Dr. Markus Braun resigned today with immediate effect as member of the management board.

The Supervisory Board of Wirecard AG appointed Dr. James H. Freis, Jr., who was appointed yesterday as member of the management board, as interim CEO with sole power of representation.

Wirecard’s share price has plunged nearly 40% today, with shares down nearly 80% over the past two days.

As the FT explains (£): “Wirecard was plunged into crisis on Thursday when it revealed that €1.9bn held in escrow accounts at two Asian banks was missing. It was told by EY, its longstanding auditor, that there were indications a trustee of Wirecard bank accounts had attempted “to deceive the auditor” and may have provided “spurious cash balances”.

Wirecard said yesterday that the board was “working intensively together with the auditor towards a clarification of the situation.”

Pound falls below $1.24

The pound is losing ground this morning and has fallen below $1.24 for the first time since 1 June.

Sterling was already hit hard by the Bank of England’s decision to ramp up its quantitative easing programme by £100bn yesterday.

But it looks like even the surprise rebound in retail sales wasn’t enough to perk up the GBP/USD currency pair this morning:

Some warm words for businesses trying to weather the pandemic from the Queen herself.

(But the real question on everyone’s mind, surely, is whether the Queen expecting a V-shaped recovery?)

CMA investigates hand sanitiser pricing

While health secretary Matt Hancock hails the reduction of the coronavirus threat level from 4 to 3, there are still lingering concerns about how opportunists are taking advantage of consumers during the pandemic.

The Competition and Markets Authority has launched an investigation into four pharmacies and convenience stores suspected of charging “excessive and unfair prices” for hand sanitiser products during the Covid-19 pandemic.

(It doesn’t look like they’re releasing the names of the suspected businesses but we’ll let you know if there are any updates)

The competition watchdog stressed that the investigation was in its early stages and it was not yet clear whether competition rules had been breached.

It will continue gathering information and will issue formal requests to the parties involved over the coming weeks.

On the face of it, the 12% jump in retail spending last month fits with the notion that the economy will bounce back quickly from Covid-19 once the lockdown restrictions are fully lifted, writes our economics editor Larry Elliott.

May’s rise occurred even before non-essential stores were allowed to start trading in some parts of the UK on 15 June, so the increase appears consistent with the idea of a V-shaped recovery: an initial fall as the country went into lockdown in late March; an 18% drop in April when the quarantining was at its most intense; then a much stronger pick-up than expected in May.

There are, though, reasons to be just a little bit cautious. For a start, retail sales volumes in the three months to May – a better guide to the trend – were still a whopping 14% lower than in the three months to February, the last period in which spending was not pandemic affected.

Nor should retail sales be confused with consumer spending. Retail sales are the goods that people buy, either in the shops or online. Consumer spending includes services such as eating out in restaurants or staying in hotels – and those bits of the economy remain shuttered.

You can read Larry’s full analysis here:

John Lewis is to reopen nine further shops next week in addition to 13 shops opened this week.

Cribbs Causeway in Bristol, Leeds, Liverpool, Milton Keynes, Newcastle, Peter Jones in west London, Southampton, Tunbridge Wells in Kent and York will all open on Thursday 25 June.

The company has brought in a range of measures to ensure safe shopping including hand sanitiser and limiting the number of shoppers in store in line with government guidelines for the reopening of non-essential retail during the coronavirus pandemic.

But John Lewis said shoppers would be able to touch products, lie on beds and try on and test wipeable products such as sunglasses, prams, and tech products.

Turning back to retail sales, Deloitte reckons the figures were boosted not only by DIY sales but beauty and clothing as everyone tries to look polished for inevitable (and for some, dreaded) Zoom calls.

Ian Geddes, head of retail at Deloitte, says:

In addition to household goods, purchases have also likely been driven by beauty products and, more notably, clothing items as many consumers continue to work from home, with an increased requirement for video conferencing and a more relaxed ‘work’ wardrobe.

Looking ahead, retailers will be plagued by consumer anxiety, with shoppers likely to be more cautious about browsing the high street as shops re-open. Retailers now need to consider whether to adapt.

Geddes adds:

During lockdown, consumers have pivoted to fewer but bigger food shops. Whether this trend will also translate into non-food remains to be seen.

For retailers, there are two options: a difficult balancing act to between re-creating a familiar shopping experience whilst implementing and maintaining strict new hygiene practices, or innovating and re-inventing the shopping experience for a post-COVID-19 world.

Deloitte data shows that 46% of UK consumers currently feel safe visiting a store, but building on this confidence will be key for drawing more shoppers back to the High Street over the coming months.

Central banks scale back Covid-19 repo operations

The Bank of England says it’s scaling back one of the measures it introduced at the start of the Covid-19 crisis that was meant to prevent the financial system grinding to a halt.

The Bank of England said it would offer 7-day US dollar repo operations just three days a week, rather than daily, from the start of July. (Repo operations are a type of short-term loan made to banks in order to regulate money supply.)

It’s part of a coordinated move by the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank and the Swiss National Bank, in consultation with the Federal Reserve.

The Bank of England said the decision was made due to falling demand and improving market conditions. However, it said it was ready to act if those conditions deteriorated:

These central banks stand ready to re-adjust the provision of U.S dollar liquidity as warranted by market conditions.

The swap lines among these central banks are available standing facilities and serve as an important liquidity backstop to ease strains in global funding markets, thereby helping to mitigate the effects of such strains on the supply of credit to households and businesses, both domestically and abroad.

Britain’s public debt is larger than the size of the country’s economy for the first time since 1963, after the government borrowed a record £55bn in May, the Guardian’s Phillip Inman writes.

The total level of debt has risen by £173bn over the last year to reach £1.95tn, or 100.9% of GDP, as ministers introduced unprecedented support for businesses and households during the coronavirus crisis.

The UK joined Italy, the US and Japan in the club of nations with levels of borrowing higher than their national income as the latest Office for National Statistics figures showed the UK government borrowed £55.2bn in May, roughly nine times more than the same month last year and the highest monthly borrowing since comparable records began in 1993.

You can read his full story (which also covers the retail sales data) here:

Never underestimate the power of a good chart (especially when we’re talking about the sheer scale of public borrowing since lockdown).

This one comes from PA graphics journalist Ian Jones:

A flurry of DIY spend helped prop up the May retail sales figures, according to the ONS.

It said household goods logged a 42% rise in sales last month, thanks to the re-opening of garden centres as well as hardware, paints and glass stores following lockdown.

While it’s not surprising that shoppers shifted online when shops on the high street closed, it’s worth mentioning that the proportion of online spending hit a record 33.4% in May.

That is higher than the first full month of lockdown in April, when online sales accounted for 30.8% of spending.

The ONS called it a “boom” in online sales.

Updated

The Financial Conduct Authority has extended emergency measures to allow consumers impacted by the coronavirus outbreak to freeze loan and credit card payments until 31 October.

The measures, which were announced in April for an initial period of three months, also includes overdrafts, store cards and catalogue credit.

Customers who have yet to request a payment freeze, or an arranged interest-free overdraft up to £500, can apply for one until the end of October.

For consumers who have already taken one and are still experiencing temporary payment difficulties due to the health emergency, the FCA says that firms must continue offer support including further payment deferral, or reducing payment amounts to a manageable level, for a further three months.

At the end of a first payment freeze, firms are expected to contact customers to see if they an afford to resume payments, and if so how they can repay missed payments.

The FCA’s interim chief executive Christopher Woolard said:

We have been working closely with other authorities, lenders and debt charities to support consumers in the current emergency.

The proposals we’ve announced today would provide an expected minimum level of financial support for consumers who remain in, or enter, temporary financial difficulty due to coronavirus.

Chancellor Rishi Sunak has weighed in on the record-breaking government borrowing data:

Today’s figures confirm that coronavirus is having a severe impact on our public finances.

The best way to restore our public finances to a more sustainable footing is to safely reopen our economy so people can return to work.

We’ve set out our plan to do this in a gradual and safe fashion, including reopening high streets across the country this week, as we kickstart our economic recovery.

As investors digest that data, European markets have opened for trading:

  • FTSE 100 is up 0.6%
  • France’s CAC 40 is up 0.8%
  • Germany’s DAX is up 0.6%
  • Spain’s IBEX is up 0.7%

Introduction: Borrowing surges; retail sales rebound

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.

While this wasn’t the morning for a leisurely coffee, there is some major data to chew on.

Straight out of the gates this morning, the Office for National Statistics hit us with two big releases: public sector net borrowing (which hit a record high in May) and retail sales (which rebounded...at least on a monthly basis).

It’s yet another snapshot of the growing costs and the tentative recovery from the Covid-19 lockdown.

ONS figures show government borrowing increased by £55.2bn in May, which is higher than economist forecasts for £50bn and is the highest borrowing in any month since records began in 1993.

Total debt is now £173.2bn higher than it was a year ago at £1.95 trillion, and is the first time the UK’s debt-to-GDP ratio has pushed above 100% since 1963. It now sits at 100.9%.

Moving on to retail sales, the figures showed a rebound in May with sales rising 12% month-on-month. That is a significant improvement from the -18% contraction in April.

But the annual reading is still sobering: retail sales were still -13.1% lower compared to May 2019. That was slightly better than economist forecasts for a -17.1% drop and is still an improvement on the -22.7% annual decline logged in April.

With most of the big economic numbers out of the way, the agenda is pretty slim, but stay tuned as we bring you the latest business news throughout the day.

Agenda:

  • 1.30pm BST: Canadian retail sales for April
 

Leave a Comment

Required fields are marked *

*

*