Closing summary
As fears of fresh coronavirus lockdowns fade, global stocks are rallying again, a day after a sharp sell-off that saw the Dow Jones lose nearly 7% and the FTSE 100 almost 4%.
- UK’s FTSE 100 index up 1.37%, or 83 points, to 6,160
- Germany’s Dax up 1.25% to 12,119
- France’s CAC 40 up 1.9% to 4,907
- Italy’s FTSE MiB up 1.3% to 19,058
On Wall Street:
- Dow Jones up 3.2% to 25,937
- S&P 500 up 2.8% to 3,086
- Nasdaq up 2.8% to 9,761
Oil prices are also climbing again, with Brent crude up 1.8% at $39.25 a barrel and US light crude 1.29% at $36.81. An Opec+ panel meeting by the Opec oil cartel and its allies next week will advise the group on the current record supply cut, but won’t decide on policy. Further talks will be needed on whether to extend the agreement further.
Markets have shrugged off record declines in UK GDP and eurozone industrial production in April, because that month marked the trough in the Covid-19 crisis and things should start to get better soon. But this will take time – the chair of the US Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, warned of a long road to recovery this week.
Thank you for reading. We’ll be back on Monday. Have a good weekend and stay safe! - JK
Updated
Wall Street jumps at open after sell-off
US stocks opened sharply higher, a day after they suffered heavy losses – the biggest in three months, on fears of a second coronavirus wave.
- Dow Jones up 531 points, or 2.1%, to 25,659
- S&P 500 up 69 points, or 2.3%, to 3,071
- Nasdaq up 223, or 2.35%, to 9,715
However, at present this is not enough to make up for yesterday’s sell-off, when the Dow lost nearly 7%, the S&P 500 slid 5.9% and the Nasdaq shed 5.3%.
Updated
In Brexit news, the UK has told the EU that it will NOT apply for an extension to the transition period, which ends on 31 December.
The European Commission’s vice president Maros Sefcovic said there is still a lot of work to do before a trade deal can be struck and the window of opportunity is closing for London before the transition period ends, Reuters reported.
He spoke after talks with British cabinet office minister Michael Gove, who told him the UK had no intention of asking for an extension of the transition period beyond the end of this year.
Ali has extended its trial of grocery home deliveries in partnership with Deliveroo into London. The German chain will offer the service at its Camden store and customers will be able to order around 200 essential products through the Deliveroo app, which will be delivered by Deliveroo riders. Delivery costs £4.99.
Last month, Aldi started a trial at eight stores in the east Midlands, which has gone well. it said:
In the three weeks since we launched our partnership with Deliveroo, feedback from customers has been very positive.
Unlike the other big supermarkets, Aldi does not usually deliver, apart from wine and non-food items such as electrical appliances and garden tools.
The Deliveroo tie-up came after Aldi started selling online food parcels in April. The £24.99 food parcels, designed to help vulnerable and elderly shoppers, contain 22 set essential products including rice, pasta, tea and toilet roll and are delivered directly from Aldi’s warehouse.
Let’s take another look at today’s other news. As reported earlier, British Airways, easyJet and Ryanair have filed papers in the high court to seek an urgent judicial review of the government’s quarantine laws, which they say are having a devastating effect on tourism and the wider economy. Here’s our story:
And UK travellers have been urged not to bring hand luggage on board to reduce the risk of coronavirus transmission, under new government guidance.
Updated
Dennis the Menace, Minnie the Minx and the Bash Street Kids – characters from the popular Beano comics – will soon be teaching primary school children about money.
Beano for Schools is a new primary school teaching resource on money and financial wellbeing, brought to us by the Bank of England, Beano and Tes, formerly known as the Times Educational Supplement, a weekly UK publication aimed at education professionals.
It will be included in the Personal, Social, Health and Economic (PSHE) curriculum.
The website, which can be previewed here, has a set of 12 lessons about Money and Me where the Beano gang will educate youngsters between 5 and 11 about the basics of how money and the economy work. It launches in July. Teachers can sign up now to register their interest in the free resource.
To mark My Money Week, the Bank of England announced the collaboration. Andrew Bailey, its governor, said:
Financial literacy is essential for everyone. The Bank’s education programme is central to our role in equipping the public with sufficient financial and economic knowledge for their daily lives. We are delighted to partner with Beano and Tes on the new Money and Me resource, which will take our programme into primary schools. It will support teachers in giving young people a strong sense of the importance of economic and financial decisions from an early age.
Emma Scott, chief executive of Beano Studios, says:
Beano has been engaging children for more than 80 years, and we love bringing that experience to the classroom. Our Beano for Schools programme translates complex topics into entertaining and engaging content for both kids and teachers and we’ve had fun producing these unique financial literacy lessons so kids can enjoy learning about money and gain necessary life skills.
Updated
Derrick Dunne, chief executive at Beaufort Investment, explains why markets have shrugged off the staggering falls in UK GDP and eurozone industrial production in April.
Yesterday’s falls aside, the markets have been buoyant while we get more Q2 data for the real economy. The Fed has ruled out interest rate rises for the foreseeable future indicating it thinks things will be difficult for the medium term. This is good for stock markets.
For instance, the GDP output of the UK economy fell by 20.4% in April. But at the time of writing, the FTSE 100 is up over 1% today. Although the GDP fall is unprecedented, it is no surprise given this is when the economy went into lockdown. The stock market is not reacting aversely to historic information.
Now, it is reacting more to how we come out of this. The government has provided a good deal of support thus far and will likely have to think carefully about how it deals with each sector in the coming months. The ongoing effect of CV19 will not be the same for each industry.
The FTSE 100 in London is 1.2% ahead, rising 74 points to 6,152. Germany’s Dax has gained 1.1% to 12,104, France’s CAC 40 has rallied 2% to 4,913 and Italy’s FTSE MiB has added 1.27% to 19,046. US stock futures are pointing to a higher open on Wall Street later.
Connor Campbell, financial analyst at trading platform Spreadex, explains:
After a torrid week, Europe attempted to reignite June’s rally, doing so with a fair amount of gusto.
There was little reason behind Friday’s gains, beyond investors deciding that the severe losses of the last few days provide a handy entry point to a market that had gone on a hell of a run at the start of the month.
A huge reason why Europe feels comfortable enough to post such gains is that the Dow Jones is aiming for a 600 point rebound when the bell rings on Wall Street. It’s a sign of just how staggering Thursday’s losses were that such a surge would only recoup a third of that decline. Nevertheless, it is a strong comeback, especially considering the US increasingly looks like it is going to face a second wave of coronavirus cases.
In terms of data, US import prices are set to rise from -2.6% to 0.6% month-on-month, while the preliminary consumer sentiment reading from the University of Michigan is expected to jump from 72.3 to 75.0.
The National Institute Of Economic and Social Research has published its analysis of this morning’s GDP data from the Office for National Statistics. You can read it here.
It says the UK economy looks set to decline by 20% to 25% in the second quarter, a significantly steeper decline than the first quarter’s 2% drop, reflecting the full impact of lockdown measures.
Kemar Whyte, senior economist at the economic research institute, says:
The economy now appears to have bottomed out, as recent survey evidence suggests an easing in the rate of contraction in the manufacturing and services sector. The re-opening of non-essential stores from 15 June, coupled with the government’s continued support should aid a gradual, albeit limited, recovery in domestic activity.
Gold on track for biggest weekly gain since early April
Turning to other glittery matters, gold is heading for its biggest weekly gain since early April, as economic optimism has faded. Spot gold is up 0.5% today to $1,735 an ounce, which means it’s on course for a weekly gain of about 3%.
Peter Fertig, an analyst at Quantitative Commodity Research, told Reuters:
One of the reasons has been the statement from the FOMC and the testimony of the [Fed chair] Jerome Powell, painting a darker picture of the US economy.
There is talk about a second wave, especially after cases of new infections of the virus have risen again in some countries. A warning which many people ignored.
And Carlo Alberto De Casa, chief analyst at trading platform ActivTrades, notes:
As at the start of the crisis in March, the turmoil in stock markets did not generate any immediate rally in gold [yesterday], as such a violent correction also meant some investors needed quick liquidity for margin calls, and had to close their (profitable) positions on gold in order to keep alive some other less fortunate trades. The main trend remains supportive for bullion, which is recovering strength this morning, in a favourable environment for other gains.
In the “real world,” the world’s biggest exhibition company expects to host its first major post-Covid-19 event in China next month. My colleague Mark Sweney reports:
Informa, the world’s largest exhibition company, said it has cancelled or postponed more than 160 events worth £300m in revenue and a further 300 have been run as digital instead of physical events.
The company, which raised £1bn in April to help weather the financial impact of the pandemic, said it has made more than £400m in cost savings including a recruitment and salary review freeze.
The company, which has seen its share price slump more than 40% over the last year, said that its first major post-coronavirus event will be the China Beauty Expo in Shanghai at the beginning of next month.
Mid-morning summary
In the financial markets, stock markets are pushing higher after heavy losses yesterday – shrugging off dismal UK and eurozone data for April and fears of a second Covid-19 wave in the US.
- UK’s FTSE 100 index up 1.2%, or 73 points, at 6,150
- Germany’s Dax up 1.2% at 12,224
- France’s CAC up 1.8% at 4,901
- Italy’s FTSE MiB up 1.45% at 19,078
The UK economy shrank by a quarter in April in the depths of the Covid-19 lockdown, with the services, industrial and construction sectors all suffering record falls in output. International trade also collapsed. The eurozone also recorded a record plunge in industrial production in April, albeit smaller than that in the UK.
The pound strengthened slightly against the dollar and flattened against the euro, after a disappointing week. Sterling traded 0.2% higher versus the dollar at $1.2630 and was little changed against the euro at 89.59 pence. There is more appetite for riskier currencies again (yesterday the dollar and the Japanese yen, both seen as safe havens, rose as global stocks tumbled), but the shocking UK data and Brexit risks continue to weigh on sterling.
Gold, another safe-haven investment, rose 0.3% to $1,732 an ounce and is heading for its first weekly rise in a month, up more than 2.5%.
Oil prices have turned positive after earlier losses of more than 3%, but are heading for a weekly fall. Brent crude is 0.57% higher at $38.77 a barrel while US light crude has gained 0.5% to $36.52.
Updated
These are the largest monthly falls recorded since the start of the series, significantly higher than the 3% to 4% drops seen in late 2008 and early 2009 during the financial crisis, Eurostat said.
Spain, Germany, France and Italy were among the countries that suffered the biggest declines.
Updated
Eurozone industrial production in record decline
In the eurozone, industrial production also collapsed in April when Covid-19 lockdowns forced factories to close. Data from the EU’s statistics office Eurostat showed industrial output in the 19 countries sharing the euro fell 17.1% from March, the biggest decline since records began in 1991.
Stocks are pushing higher, with the FTSE 100 in London now up 1.16% while the CAC 40 in Paris is 1.27% ahead and the FTSE MiB in Milan has gained 1.26%.
UK trade collapses in April
Not surprisingly, the UK’s trade with other countries also collapsed in April. Export volumes fell by 17.7% month on month, but import volumes dropped even more, by 26.5%. The trade balance shifted from a deficit of £4bn in March to a surplus of £300m in April as a result.
Trade in services was hit much harder than trade in goods. Services export volumes fell by 27.8%, while services imports slumped by 43.1%, reflecting the collapse in travel and tourism. In trade in goods, the monthly declines were smaller, at 8.7% for exports and 20.2% for imports.
In the three months to April, the UK posted a trade deficit of £1.2bn. The falls in exports and imports, excluding precious metals, were the largest since records began in 1998. The biggest declines in exports and imports were in machinery and transport equipment, in particular cars and vans, as well as other goods such as art and clothing.
Despite the shocking UK economic data, all of the main UK and European stock markets have now turned positive.
- UK’s FTSE 100 up 18 points, or 0.3%, at 6,095
- Germany’s Dax up 0.25% at 12,000
- France’s CAC 40 up 0.6% at 4,845
- Italy’s FTSE MiB up 0.5% at 18,904
Faced with this unprecedented recession, the Bank of England is expected to add to the £200bn of asset purchases it announced in March, to revive the economy. Economists are forecasting another increase of at least £100bn in the bond-buying programme.
Andrew Bailey, the central bank’s governor, said on Wednesday that this downturn is not a “normal recession” and that there will be some long-term damage.
If there is any such thing as a normal recession ... this one will be different. There will be elements of a faster recovery, because the first stage of the recovery is literally lifting restrictions and allowing people to go out.
And we see ... evidence of elements of that recovery starting.
Turning to long-term damage, as some businesses will go bust and some business models such as packed bars will no longer appeal to the public, he added:
We don’t know how much scarring there will be. I think it is reasonably to say there will be some but it is very hard to judge.
Britain’s economic recovery will be a far more drawn-out affair than the collapse, warns Capital Economics analyst Andrew Wishart.
At its peak in April the lockdown reduced economic output by 25%, making the coronavirus crisis by far the deepest recession on record. The peak-to-trough fall in GDP was 7% in both the Global Financial Crisis and the Great Depression. Having plumbed those unprecedented depths, the economy is now on the return leg.
Given the lockdown started to be eased in May, April will mark the trough in GDP. Overall, we are past the worst. But the recovery will be a drawn-out affair as restrictions are only lifted gradually and businesses and consumers continue to exercise caution. And while the trough in activity is now behind us, the fiscal cost of the collapse and the impact on the labour market, including the rise in the unemployment rate to over 8% that we expect, are only just starting to emerge.
UK's lockdown loss totals 25%, one of the worst in the world
We don’t have comparative figures for the UK’s 20.4% economic decline in April in other countries. Coming after a 5.8% drop in GDP in March, the combined loss during the Covid-19 lockdown period is 25.1%.
The French economy is set to have contracted by 15% between April and June, the Banque de France estimated yesterday.
German industrial production shrank by 17.9% in April from March, according to official data released this week – not quite as bad as the UK’s 20.3% decline in industrial output.
The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, a respected Paris-based think tank, expects Britain’s economy to suffer the worst damage from the Covid-19 crisis of any country in the developed world.
A slump in the UK’s national income of 11.5% during 2020 will outstrip the falls in France, Italy, Spain, Germany and the US, the OECD estimated earlier this week.
Germany’s economy, the largest in Europe, is expected to contract by 6.6% this year while Spain’s GDP is seen falling by 11.1%, Italy’s by 11.3 and France’s by 11.4%. The US, the world’s largest economy, is forecast to take a hit of 7.3%.
Updated
Oil prices slide on second wave fears
Oil prices continue to slide, as a rise in Covid-19 infections in the US this week sparked fears of a second wave of coronavirus, which could lead to restrictions being reimposed on the US economy, and hit demand for crude oil. The US is the world’s biggest consumer of crude and fuel.
Brent crude dropped 3.1% to $37.35 a barrel this morning while US light crude has fallen even more, by 3.4%, to $35.09. The two oil benchmarks are on course for their first weekly declines in seven, down more than 12% this week, as growing stockpiles also act as a drag on prices, Reuters reported.
Updated
Back to the markets. The FTSE 100 index and Germany’s Dax have recouped some of their losses in early trading and are now almost flat, while French and Italian shares have risen slightly.
- UK’s FTSE 100 index down 0.06% at 6,074
- Germany’s Dax down 0.02%
- France’s CAC up 0.15%
- Italy’s FTSE MiB up 0.35%
In other news, Britain’s three biggest airlines – British Airways, easyJet and Ryanair – have now launched legal action against the UK government’s quarantine policy, according to BA’s parent IAG. They have asked for a judicial review to be heard as soon as possible.
The three airlines argue that the policy is irrational and unfair, as it comes months after the UK’s Covid-19 lockdown was imposed, and at a time when the pandemic is easing. The quarantine took effect on Monday and requires air passengers arriving in the UK from abroad to self-isolate for 14 days.
The aviation and travel industries fear that it will kill off a nascent recovery in air travel.
Hotels, B&Bs, cafes and restaurants were worst hit during the Covid-19 lockdown, recording a 91.8% slump in output between January and April, notes Samuel Tombs, chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.
The economy will take a long time to recover from the pummelling inflicted by the Covid-19 pandemic. April’s unprecedented drop in GDP extends the decline from January’s peak to a gargantuan 25.2%. This collapse greatly surpasses the 6% peak-to-trough decline in GDP seen in the 2008-to-09 recession, which previously was the deepest in post-war history.
Output in April was below its January level in all but one of the 20 sub-sectors of the economy; output in the public administration sector ticked up by 0.2%.
Updated
The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR), the UK’s oldest independent economic research institute, has sent us some quick thoughts on this morning’s data.
UK and European shares have fallen at the open.
- UK’s FTSE 100 index down 1.3%
- Germany’s Dax down 0.9%
- France’s CAC down 1%
- Spain’s Ibex down 0.6%
- Italy’s FTSE MiB down 0.9%
Updated
James Smith, developed markets economist at ING, says:
Today’s data won’t necessarily come as much of as a surprise to markets - it shows the damage was a little greater than expected, but the reality is that markets have become fairly desensitised to big numbers over recent weeks. We know too that April was the first month to be fully encompassed by the lockdown. But these figures are nevertheless shocking, and it goes without saying that this kind of fall in activity is virtually unprecedented, either in scale or speed.
Social distancing constraints, consumer and business caution, as well as Brexit, all pose challenges to the UK economic recovery. This is set to keep the pressure on the Bank of England to continue expanding its balance sheet, and we expect a further increase in its quantitative easing programme next week.
The record fall in UK GDP in April means that the economy lost £30bn. The decline is much worse than during the financial crisis. The ONS says:
The monthly decline in GDP in April 2020 is three times greater than the fall experienced during the 2008 to 2009 economic downturn. During the global financial crisis, from the peak in February 2008 to the lowest point of March 2009, a total of 13 months, GDP contracted 6.9%.
The figures suggest that the British economy is suffering one of the worst downturns in the world.
Updated
The UK economy shrank by an unprecedented 10.4% in the three months to April, the ONS’s rolling three-month estimate showed.
April’s decline reflected widespread falls in services, production and construction output, the ONS said.
Industrial output fell 20.3% in April, the largest monthly fall since records began in 1968. Manufacturing, which makes up three-quarters of industrial output (the rest is utilities, mining and quarrying), plunged 24.3%.
Services output was down 19% and construction output plummeted 40.1% as companies downed tools during the nationwide lockdown.
All declines were the biggest on record, and worse than City economists had expected.
Updated
The UK’s deputy national statistician for economic statistics Jonathan Athow said:
April’s fall in GDP is the biggest the UK has ever seen, more than three times larger than last month and almost ten times larger than the steepest pre-COVID-19 fall. In April the economy was around 25% smaller than in February.
Virtually all areas of the economy were hit, with pubs, education, health and car sales all giving the biggest contributions to this historic fall.
Manufacturing and construction also saw significant falls, with manufacture of cars and housebuilding particularly badly affected.
The UK’s trade with the rest of the world was also badly affected by the pandemic, with large falls in both the import and export of cars, fuels, works of art and clothing.
There is a ton of UK economic data out this morning. The GDP figure for April was worse than expected, showing an economic contraction of 20.4% in April from the month before, as the economy was paralysed by the coronavirus pandemic.
Factories, shops, restaurants cafes, bars, building sites and schools shut across the country, with only “essential” stores such as supermarkets and pharmacies allowed to open.
Updated
UK GDP down 20.4% in April; stocks fall on fears of second Covid-19 wave
Good morning and welcome to our live, rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets and business.
The UK economy contracted by a whopping 20.4% in April from the month before as the full impact of the Covid-19 pandemic hit, according to official figures just released.
City economists had been expecting an 18.4% decline. It is the biggest contraction since records began in 1997.
Stock markets suffered heavy losses yesterday as economic optimism faded and fears of a second wave of coronavirus infections intensified.
In the US, another 1.5 million people filed for jobless benefits, taking the total over the last three months to more than 44 million - a staggering number. The number of Covid-19 infections passed 2m and more than 115,000 people have died from the virus. The night before, Jerome Powell, chair of the Federal Reserve (the US central bank), said the coronavirus was the “biggest economic shock” in living memory and warned it would be a long road to recovery.
The US Treasury Secretary, Steve Mnuchin, said yesterday that shutting down the economy again was not an option.
On Wall Street, the Dow Jones tumbled nearly 7%, the S&P 500 lost 5.9% and the Nasdaq, which hit a record high earlier in the week, fell 5.3%. The UK’s FTSE 100 index fell nearly 4%, or 252 points to 6,076.70 yesterday, marking its third day of declines. Germany’s Dax lost 4.5% and France’s CAC 40 tumbled 4.7%.
It was another bleak day for the UK jobs market yesterday, as the owner of British Gas announced 5,000 job cuts, chemicals firm Johnson Matthey said it would lay off 2,500 people and Heathrow airport launched a redundancy programme. BP, Mulberry and Debenhams also announced major job losses this week.
Asian markets are also in the red today, although the losses are less steep. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan slid 2.3%, South Korea’s Kospi dropped 2.2%, Australia’s stock market lost 1.7%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng is down 1.3% and Japan’s Nikkei fell 0.9%. European markets are expected to open lower.
David Madden, market analyst at CMC Markets UK, says:
Yesterday was like a flashback to the madness that was seen in markets in February and March as fears about a possible second wave of Covid-19 prompted intense selling. The sharp declines that were registered yesterday must be put in context with the major gains that have been racked up in recent weeks.
The Agenda
- 7:45am BST: French inflation for May (forecast: 0.2%)
- 10am BST: Eurozone Industrial production for April (forecast: -20% m/m)
- 2pm BST: UK NIESR Monthly GDP tracker
- 3pm: BST: US Michigan consumer sentiment survey (forecast: 75)
Updated