Closing post
And finally, European stock markets have ended the day with solid gains.
The news the eurozone and UK service sector companies returned to growth last month helped the market, as did the latest drop in US oil inventories.
In London, the FTSE 100 closed 68 points higher at 6104. a gain of 1.1%. Miners and travel companies led the rally.
Germany’s DAX gained 0.4%, with France’s CAC up 0.8%.
In the commodity markets, oil is still trading at a five-month high - with Brent crude over $46 per barrel.
Gold continues to climb too - now worth $2,044 per ounce for the first time ever.
David Madden of CMC Markets says investors are managing to stay upbeat, despite the lack of a deal (yet) over a new US economic stimulus package:
European stock markets are set to finish the session in positive territory as dealers are still optimistic that politicians in the US will reach an agreement in relation to the coronavirus relief package.
The negotiations between Republicans and Democrats are still dragging on, and there isn’t much hope that things will be resolved quickly, but ultimately there is a sense that a deal will be reached in the end.
The FTSE 100 has been largely steady for the last few hours, while the DAX 30 and the CAC 40 have handed back some of their earlier gains. In London, mining, oil and gas, house builders, banks and airlines are showing decent gains.
But it was another grim day for jobs news, with 1,500 positions being cut at WH Smiths and another 400 at clothing firm M&Co
Goodnight. GW
Shares in entertainment giant Disney have surged by nearly 10% today, after it reported strong growth at its new streaming services.
The firm reported last night that its Disney+ service has signed up more then 60m subscribers in its first nine months. That beat forecasts - perhaps a sign that people have been looking for more media to consume during the lockdown.
But the pandemic also hit Disney hard in other ways - revenues slumped by 42% in the last quarter as it was forced to shut its theme parks at a cost of $3.5bn.
Global cinema shutdowns also hurt its revenues, dragging the company to a loss of $4.8bn for the quarter.
But Wall Street isn’t alarmed - Disney is the top riser on the Dow, followed by Nike (+3%), Visa (+2.7%) and Caterpillar (+2.6%).
US oil inventories drop
The latest official US oil inventory figures are out, and they show a bigger drop in crude reserves than expected.
Oil inventories fell by 7.3m barrels last week - much more than expected -- according to the EIA’s new figures.
That broadly matches yesterday’s numbers from the American Petroleum Institute, which helped to push the oil price up today.
US Services PMI beats forecasts, but job cuts rise
Just in: The US service sector grew at a faster rate last month. But, as in the UK, companies also cut jobs more rapidly.
July’s Services PMI, compiled by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) has jumped to 58.1 from 57.1 in June. That’s the highest reading since early 2019, and shows that activity expanded at a faster rate.
But the jobs picture darkened. ISM’s non-manufacturing employment index fell to 42.1 in July, from 43.1 in June, showing that services firms cut their workforce at a faster rate.
That largely mirrors the picture in the UK (see this morning’s data), and suggests that the pick-up in economic activity since lockdowns eased won’t prevent unemployment remaining high.
Why oil's rally may not last
The oil market’s leap above $45 a barrel today for the first time since the coronavirus outbreak forced much of Europe into lockdown may prove to be short-lived, according to oil market analysts.
Brent crude has now climbed to $46 a barrel, a fresh five-month high, after official US data revealed that its stores of crude - which were filled to the brim in April - are beginning to empty as demand for energy returns in line with the easing of lockdown restrictions.
But Chris Midgley, of S&P Global Platts, said the price of Brent crude may struggle to stay above $40 a barrel over the next couple of months as oil supplies begin to rise and demand slows due to planned seasonal maintenance at oil refineries.
“Stocks are bloated, Chinese buying is set to slow, and global oil refining is heading into turnaround season,” he said, adding that oil prices may only rise towards $50 a barrel by the end of 2021.
The Opec oil cartel and its allies have slowly started to increase their oil output after the most dramatic oil production cuts in history to help prevent the global oil market becoming overwhelmed by surplus oil during the first wave of lockdowns earlier this year.
Bjornar Tonhaugen, the head of oil markets at Rystad Energy, said rising Covid-19 infections could lead to further travel restrictions which would threaten demand for fuels and “likely keep prices in check for the remainder of the summer”.
He added:
“It is interesting to see how Opec+ itself will assess the new reality and if any new amendments of the production curtailment deal will be suggested later this month in its coming meeting.”
Wall Street has shrugged off the weak/confusing ADP Payroll report, with stocks rising at the start of trading in New York.
- Dow: up 196 points or 0.7% at 27,024.
- S&P 500: up 13 points or 0.4% at 3,320.29.
- Nasdaq: up 21 points or 0.2% at 10,962.
France’s wine producers have suffered badly from the pandemic.
Sales have slumped following the closure of restaurants at home and abroad during the lockdown, leaving the industry struggling.
Paris is now taking action, with France’s prime minister, Jean Castex, pledging an extra €250m (£220m) in state support.
He made the announcement during a visit to the Menetou-Salon and Sancerre vineyards in the Cher department in centre-Val de Loire region.
He also tweeted that state support “must continue and intensify” to save the wine industry from collapse.
Updated
US Payroll figures: What the experts say
Today’s ADP payroll report has alarmed Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton.
She fears that the US government’s own jobs report, due in 48 hours, could be weaker than hoped.
Andrew Hunter of Capital Economics is more upbeat. He still reckons Friday’s Non-Farm Payroll will show an extra one million jobs created in July.
On today’s ADP report, he says:
The details suggest the slowdown was driven by the leisure and hospitality sector which, after adding close to 2 million jobs in June, added just 38,000 in July, which would make sense given the renewed restrictions on bars and restaurants in many states. But most other sectors also saw a sharp slowdown.
That said, it is worth reiterating that the ADP has never been a great guide to the official payrolls figures and has actually been particularly poor in recent months, with the ADP’s initially published estimates for May and June (which have since been miraculously revised up to better match the official data) proving far too pessimistic.
Mohamed El-Erien of Allianz says the ADP jobs report is ‘worrisome’:
Asset manager Steven Rattner fears that the employment situation will worsen, if Congress and the White House can’t agree a new stimulus package quickly.
ADP reckon that medium-sized US companies actually cut staff in July:
ADP’s data is based on actual payroll data, so it should be accurate. But the huge revision to June’s figures show that it’s pretty tricky to judge the economy right now.
ADP: US job creation slowed in July
I’m afraid the ADP Payroll report doesn’t paint a very heartening picture of the US jobs market.
ADP have just reported that US companies added 167,000 new workers in July, a long way below the 1.5 million increase which Wall Street had expected.
That’s a big miss - suggesting the labor market has slowed last month.
But, ADP have also radically revised their earlier data higher. They now reckon that 4.31m jobs were created in June, up from 2.36m they reported a month ago.
That brings it more into line with June’s official jobs data.
But it certainly creates more uncertainty ahead of Friday’s Non-Farm Payroll report -- with Trump already talking it up.
Here’s some snap reaction:
More reaction to follow....
Updated
Trump: Big jobs number coming
US president Donald Trump has hinted that the next US employment report, due on Friday, will be decent.
July’s non-farm payroll is indeed expected to show a recovery in the labor force. Economists predict that around 1.6 million new jobs were created -- certainly a ‘big’ number, but not as impressive as the 4.8m created in June.
This would pull the US unemployment rate down to around 10.5% from 11.1%. Back in February it was just 3.5%, before the pandemic lockdown forced millions of people out of work.
We’ll shortly get the latest estimate for private sector payrolls from ADP, which may give an indication of how Friday’s NFP data will play out.
It’s been a decent morning for European equities.
The main indices are all positive, led by companies which have suffered badly from the pandemic.
On the Europe-wide Stoxx 600, energy firms, miners and industrial groups are the best-performing sectors. In London, airline group IAG (+8%), oil giant BP (+5.2%), and precious metals groups Polymetal (+5.1%) and Fresnillo (+5.6%) are among the risers.
Here’s the situation on the major bourses:
- FTSE 100: up 66 points or 1.1% at 6102
- German DAX: up 101 points or 0.8% at 12,701
- French CAC: up 39 points or 0.8% at 4,929
Staff at Metro Bank won’t be returning to their desk for some time, as the firm tries to avoid getting caught up in a wave of winter illness.
My colleague Kalyeena Makortoff explains:
Metro Bank will not urge staff to return to the office until the winter flu season is over but it is ramping up hiring to handle a surge in defaults linked to the Covid-19 crisis.
The chief executive, Daniel Frumkin, said he would not ask its 1,400 head office and back-office employees to return to their desks before 2021, given the potential for a rise in coronavirus cases during the winter months.
“Everybody tells me, you know, flu season will be difficult and it doesn’t seem prudent to let people back in the office in October, staring into a winter that could be very difficult. It seems much more prudent to revisit the topic once we see what the winter unfolds like,” he said.
Metro isn’t alone. Many UK firms are taking a cautious approach, having found that home working can be productive, and safer for staff.
The oil price has jumped by 2.5% today, with Brent crude hitting a five-month high of $45.50 per barrel.
Data released yesterday showed that US oil inventories have fallen, suggesting stronger demand (or weaker supply) than expected.
Oil is also benefiting from the weak US dollar. As this chart shows, many assets are rising against the greenback today.
Gold keeps rising
Back in the commodities market, gold has just hit a new record high, extending this morning’s gains.
Gold is changing hands at $2,040 per ounce, up from $1,975 at the start of the week (and $1,500 at the start of the year).
Having surged through $2,000 overnight, gold looks primed for further gains, according to Adam Vettese, analyst at investment platform eToro:
“The price of gold has surged by more than 30% year to date and has passed through the significant psychological threshold of $2,000 as investors illustrate a lack of confidence in other instruments and favour bullion as a store of value.
Continued Covid19 uncertainty, combined with central banks and governments flooding their economies with stimulus and aid, has led to increased demand for the precious metal and we could see the rally push on further if current market conditions persist.
Low interest rates and bond yields pulling back are also helping the rally. In normal circumstances bonds would be favoured over gold as they have a yield which gold doesn’t, but at current levels that isn’t an attractive option for retail investors.”
Sweden’s economy suffered a very sharp contraction in the last quarter - although not quite as severe as European neighbours.
Swedish GDP shrank by 8.6% in the April-to-June period, the worst slump in at least 40 years.
Statistics Sweden said.
“The downturn in GDP is the largest for a single quarter for the period of 1980 and forward.”
But it’s not quite as bad as the eurozone, which slumped by 12.1% in Q2.
That reflects the fact that Sweden resisted imposing tough lockdown rules, and instead asked its citizens to behave responsibly. Although some schools did close, and large gatherings were discouraged, shops, restaurants and gyms all remained open - meaning less economic damage.
However, that policy was criticised as Sweden’s infection rate rose, particularly in care homes. Sweden’s chief epidemiologist admitted in June that more action should have been taken.
Bookmaker William Hill is planning not to reopen 119 branches closed during the coronavirus lockdown - another example of how the pandemic has changed business patterns.
Fortunately, though, few job cuts are expected - as my colleague Jasper Jolly explains:
The group said it had redeployed the majority of staff at the branches that are closing and only 16 redundancies were expected. The latest closures, representing about 8% of stores, leave William Hill with 1,414 branches.
It plans to repay the government £24.5m in funds claimed to support furloughed workers’ wages, after revealing profits of £141m in the first six months of 2020, thanks to a £200m VAT refund.
The BBC’s Douglas Fraser reports that jobs are also being cut at clothing retailer M&Co:
WH Smiths to cut up to 1,500 jobs
In another blow, retail chain WH Smiths is planning to cut up to 1,500 jobs.
The company, which operates shops at airports and railway stations and on the high street, has announced it will restructure its UK operations.
This proposal could to lead to up to 1,500 roles becoming redundant, it says, adding to the rising total of jobs lost during the pandemic.
It blames the impact on passenger numbers due to the slump in demand for air travel, and the move towards home working during the lockdown. Lower footfall on the UK high street is also hurting the business.
In a statement to the City WH Smith Group chief executive, Carl Cowling, explains:
“Covid-19 continues to have a significant impact on the WH Smith Group. Throughout the pandemic, we have responded quickly and taken decisive actions to protect the business including substantially strengthening our financial position. We have also welcomed support from Government where available.
“In our Travel business, while we are beginning to see early signs of recovery in some of our markets, the speed of recovery continues to be slow. At the same time, while there has been some progress in our High Street business, it does continue to be adversely affected by low levels of footfall. As a result, we now need to take further action to reduce costs across our businesses. I regret that this will have an impact on a significant number of colleagues whose roles will be affected by these necessary actions, and we will do everything we can to support them at this challenging time.
WH Smiths also told investors that sales are still “materially down” compared with a year ago, despite a gradual recovery since lockdown restrictions have eased.
Updated
Here’s Jeremy Thomson-Cook, chief economist at money management firm Equals, on this morning’s Services PMI figures:
“The headline sentiment number is indeed positive with activity in the UK’s crucial services sector expanding at the fastest rate since July 2015 supported by a surge in new orders.
“The issue remains the sustainability of this recovery given the increase in sectoral redundancies and a likely cessation of wider investment until the horizon is seen more clearly, with anything from further lockdowns to Brexit confusion likely to keep businesses in a state of caution.”
Firms cut jobs amid recovery worries
UK service sector companies cut jobs at a sharper pace in July, because they are worried that the Covid-19 recovery will be slow.
So says Duncan Brock, Group Director at the Chartered Institute of Procurement & Supply. He warns that there are still serious ‘underlying problems’ in the economy, even though activity grew last month.
Brock says:
Employment fell even more quickly in July as some firms made redundancies in response to worries about the length of the recovery. Although in a small minority, other service providers found new opportunities to hire talent and had the pick of the bunch to fill vacancies from growing numbers of applications.
“Consumer choices also still remained cautious with pre-covid spending a distant memory in some categories. As the sector returns to work, increased competition between firms meant that increasing raw materials costs could not be passed on to customers. As the threat of further pandemic lockdown threatens to derail continuing progress, business will have to continue to absorb any additional costs coming their way or face the prospect of having to close their doors permanently.
UK services growth hits five-year high, but job cuts mount
Newsflash: The UK’s service sector has recorded its strongest increase in business activity in five years, as the Covid-19 lockdown eased.
Data firm Markit’s UK Services PMI, which tracks activity across the sector, jumped to 56.5 in July from 47.1 in June.
That shows a strong return to growth, with companies reporting an increase in customer demand as clients reopened and took back furloughed employees.
But worryingly, this recovery did not stop firms laying off staff at a faster rate than in June - a sign that unemployment will continue to rise.
Markit says:
UK service providers reported a strong increase in business activity during July, with the rate of growth the sharpest recorded for five years. New orders also rebounded during the latest survey period, reflecting an improvement in corporate and household spending. Growth was mainly linked to the phased reopening of business operations across the UK economy.
Employment was a weak point in July, with staffing numbers falling at a steep and accelerated pace amid concerns of only a partial recovery in longer-term demand from the levels seen prior to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic.
UK car sales jumped 11% in July
The UK’s car industry has also benefited from the relaxing of lockdown rules.
New car registrations jumped by 11.3% in July, new figures from industry group SMMT show.
SMMT reports that “pent-up demand” led to 174,887 vehicles hitting the road last month as car dealerships across the nation fully re-opened.
That still leaves car sales down nearly 42% this year, compared with 2019. The SMMT expects that full-year sales for 2020 will be down 30%, the equivalent of £20bn of lost sales.
It also warns that the sector has already suffered job cuts:
More than 13,000 jobs have now been lost by UK Automotive across retail and manufacturing as a result of the pandemic, with more likely to follow given the scale of the challenges facing the sector, including shifts in technology, Brexit uncertainty and a depressed market.
Here’s the full story:
The increase in private sector activity in July may show that the eurozone is emerging from recession.
But growth could be subdued until a Covid-19 vaccine comes to market, allowing governments to relax social distancing rules and let the economy return to normal.
Chris Williamson, chief business economist at IHS Markit, explains:
“Eurozone service sector business activity rebounded in July to grow at a rate not exceeded for over two years. France and Germany enjoyed especially strong gains though renewed growth was also recorded in Spain and Italy as COVID-19 containment measures continued to be relaxed.
Combined with a surge in manufacturing production, the renewed expansion of the service sector bodes well for the economy to rebound in the third quarter after the unprecedented slump seen in the second quarter.
Whether the recovery can be sustained will be determined first and foremost by virus case numbers, and the recent signs of a resurgence pose a particular risk to many parts of the service sector, such as travel, tourism and hospitality.
However, even without a significant increase in infections, social distancing measures will need to be in place until an effective treatment or vaccine is available, dampening the ability of many firms to operate at anything like pre-pandemic capacity, and representing a major constraint on longer-run economic recovery prospects.”
Eurozone companies post fastest growth in two years
Newsflash: After months of pain and disruption, the eurozone’s private sector is growing again.
Data firm Markit’s latest survey of purchasing managers shows that eurozone service sector companies recorded their fastest growth in two years in July. This lifted its service sector PMI to 54.7, up from 48.3.
That’s the highest level in nearly two years, and well above the 50-point mark showing stagnation.
Service sector companies reported that new business picked up (mainly due to domestic demand), with confidence also rising. But companies did still keep cutting jobs, as they worked through their backlog of orders.
Markit’s Composite PMI, which also includes factories, also surged back to growth last month. It rose to 54.9 from 48.5 in June.
The recovery was broad based, with Germany, France, Italy and Spain all showing growth.
But... this does not mean that the economic damage of the pandemic has been fixed. Economies may be growing again, but from a lower base.
Updated
Fears that the coronavirus pandemic will intensify are pushing gold prices higher, says Giles Coghlan, chief currency analyst at trading firm HYCM.
“We know that investors rally to gold in times of uncertainty. The reason for this is simple – gold is a safe haven asset that is able to maintain, and indeed increase, its value during volatile periods.
To me, 2020 will be known as the year of the gold rush. Its spot price has increased by 32% since the beginning of the year. and finally broken $2,000. This an astounding performance, and naturally has people questioning just how high the price of gold will go. Momentum and confidence is high, and I get the impression that people are keen to see how how the price of gold can go.
The key difference between today’s scenario and other economic downturns has to do with the fact this market crisis is a result of a health pandemic – something investors cannot control. However, the same principles of investing in gold still apply.
Investors and wealth managers have been buying up gold due to their concerns over the global economy’s ability to effectively recover from the COVID-19 pandemic. The fact that private banks are encouraging their clients to buy gold as a means of hedging against inflation and currency fluctuations shows that the market is not confident that we have witnessed the end of the coronavirus outbreak.
Gold is also being driven higher by speculators, who have been piling into exchange traded funds (ETFs) which hold the precious metal.
ETFs give investors exposure to an asset without the hassle of actually having to buy it themselves --- particularly handy for an expensive commodity such as gold.
The amount of gold held by these ETFs has hit a record high this week - and ING’s Warren Patterson reckons this will propel bullion prices higher:
Investors continue to pile into gold ETFs, with holdings having increased by more than 820koz over the last week, leaving them at a record 108.51moz.
Given that low rates and a weaker US Dollar are likely to persist, we believe that there is still further upside for gold prices.
One such ETF now holds more gold than many central banks (hat-tip to the Financial Times)!
The FT’s Robin Wigglesworth explains:
SPDR Gold Shares, an ETF that owns physical bullion rather than just financial derivatives, has hoovered up gold this year as investors seeking price gains or a haven asset channel more money into the fund. The size of the fund’s holdings — which are held in HSBC’s London vaults — has climbed to 1,258 tonnes.
On Monday and Tuesday alone it added another 15 tonnes, roughly five times as much as Michael Caine’s bank robbers lifted in The Italian Job, based on the $4m value of the gold taken in the 1969 film.
Gold is also profiting from the surge in government bond prices since the pandemic started.
Government bond yields (or interest rates) are at record lows, thanks to the huge quantitative easing (bond-buying) programmes undertaken by central banks.
In many cases yields are now negative, meaning investors have to pay for the privilege of holding the bonds until they mature (unless they can flip them to a central bank first).
That makes precious metals a more attractive asset, as they could offer protection against money-printing policies.
As Bloomberg’s Ranjeetha Pakiam explains:
Gold’s scorching rally gathered more force, with prices driven higher into record territory above $2,000 an ounce as investors assessed prospects of more stimulus to combat the coronavirus pandemic’s fallout, another slide in U.S. real yields and increased geopolitical risks.
Bullion is up more than 30% this year, and could extend gains as governments and central banks respond to slowing growth with vast amounts of stimulus. Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly said Tuesday the U.S. economy needs more support than originally thought.
The haven’s allure as a store of wealth is strengthening as investors face the prospect of a long global recovery, and the debasement of fiat currencies, with banks including Goldman Sachs Group Inc. forecasting a rally to $2,300.
European stock markets have opened higher, with the FTSE 100 jumping by 50 points to 6089 points.
That’s its highest level in nearly a week.
Precious metals producers Fresnillo (+3.3%) and Polymetal (+4.2%) are among the top risers - reflecting the spike in gold.
Travel companies are also in demand, with IAG jumping 5%. Engine maker Rolls-Royce has gained 3.7%.
Gold at record high: What the analysts say
City experts believe gold will hit new heights in the coming weeks as the Covid-19 pandemic continues.
Fiona Cincotta of City Index says:
Gold is on fire. The precious metal’s scorching rally has continued with prices pushing through the key psychological level $2000 to a record high of $2030 per ounce, as bond yields hit new lows and the US Dollar experiences another steep sell off.
With Congress promising to work round the clock to reach a deal on a new rescue package by the end of the week and comments from the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco that the US economy will need more support than initially thought– the stimulus taps are firmly switched on with no signs of them being turned off anytime soon.
With the global economic recovery expected to be more drawn out than initially expected and the US Dollar losing value, investors are increasingly turning to non-yielding gold to store wealth. Given that high fiscal spending and extremely accommodative monetary policy are expected to be in place for years, there is a good chance that gold has higher to go.
Jingyi Pan of IG:
Gold futures continue to point north for prices. For the precious gold metal with limited means of valuation, the break above the $2000/oz level opens up further room on the upside in this run fuelled by the safe haven buying that is not expected to dry up anytime soon.
Naeem Aslam of Avatrade:
The path of the least resistance for gold is still skewed to the upside and there is enough momentum that can push the gold price toward the $2,500.
Introduction: Gold scales new peak at $2,030 per ounce
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.
The gold price has surged to new record highs this morning, amid anxiety over the Covid-19 pandemic, geopolitical jitters, and predictions that money-printing policies will drive inflation up.
Gold smashed through $2,000 per ounce for the first time ever last night, and is now changing hands at $2,030/oz this morning - comfortably over its previous record set in 2011.
At the start of 2020, gold was worth just $1,500 per ounce, but has been rocketing steadily higher in the last few months.
As a traditional safe haven, gold is benefiting from rising tensions between the US and China - with Beijing furious that Donald Trump is forcing TikTok to sell its US operations.
Anxiety over a second wave of Covid-19 cases in the coming months is also pushing some investors towards precious metals.
Stephen Innes of AxiCorp explains:
Concerns remain around a second wave in Europe as daily case growth has started to accelerate from shallow levels in most countries. However, the levels are nowhere near that seen in the US, which is now on a downward trajectory.
Still, markets fear a second Covid-19 surge into winter (northern hemisphere), and the associated rise in volatility still favors gold as a defensive strategy.
The recent weakness in the US dollar is also pushing commodity prices higher. Traders are also anticipating that inflation will pick up as central banks and governments launch unprecedented stimulus packages to protect their economies.
US politicians are still struggling to agree the next Covid-19 package, though, which is causing some nervousness in the markets.
White House officials have been meeting with Congressional leaders for days, but are still split over the size of the deal - and how much support should be provided to unemployed Americans.
Treasury secretary Steven Mnuchin told reporters last night that negotiators have agreed to work “around the clock” to “try and reach an overall agreement” by the end of the week, so a bill could be drawn up and (ideally) approved by Capitol Hill next week.
Also coming up today
The latest healthcheck on UK and eurozone purchasing managers is expected to show that service sector companies returned to growth last month as lockdown measures eased.
July’s UK car sales figures are also due this morning, and expected to show they rose by 11% - the first jump this year.
The agenda
- 9am BST: Eurozone service sector PMI for July; expected to rise to 55.1 from 48.3
- 9am BST: UK car sales figures for July; expected to rise by 11%
- 9.30am BST: UK service sector PMI for July; expected to rise to 56.6 from 47.1
- 1.15pm BST: ADP survey of US payrolls in July
- 3pm BST: US service sector PMI for July; expected to dip to 55 from 57.1
- 3.30pm BST: US weekly oil inventory figures
Updated