Closing summary
The continued rebound of UK retail sales has offered hope for a V-shaped economic recovery, but economists are increasingly questioning whether it is sustainable as reasons for Britons to refrain from spending multiply.
Retail sales volumes increased by 0.8% compared to the previous month, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said, thanks in part to DIY shopping sprees. That growth was down from the 3.7% increase over July or the surges of 12.1% and 13.9% seen in May and June.
But the big problem is economists’ expectation of a big rise in unemployment when the furlough scheme ends in October and with case numbers accelerating.
News just in this afternoon of more restrictions on parts of England will not help matters. A 10pm nightlife curfew will hit the hospitality industry hard. Property adviser Altus Group says the North East curfew measures will impact 2,350 pubs and restaurants, and another 1,508 in Lancashire.
Here are some of the other important developments from today:
- Ryanair made further cuts to flight numbers in October, blaming EU travel restrictions.
- As many as 5.3m people in the UK were furloughed
at the end of July, according to the latest numbers from HM Revenue and Customs. - The US said it would ban WeChat and TikTok from US app stores from Sunday.
- NatWest Group is reportedly considering closing its Ulster Bank branch network in the Republic of Ireland.
- The London Stock Exchange Group is in exclusive talks with Euronext of France to sell Italy’s Borsa Italiana.
You can follow our live, rolling coverage from around the world across the Guardian:
In the UK, the R number increases to between 1.1 and 1.4; Welsh leader slams ‘vacancy at heart of UK’
In the US, the Trump administration announces ban on TikTok and WeChat from Sunday
And in our global coverage, Iran is in the grip of a ‘third wave’ of the Covid pandemic; Israel begins second lockdown
Thank you as ever for following our live coverage of business, economics and financial markets, and please do join us on Monday for more. JJ
As expected, Wall Street has gained at the opening bell. Here are the snaps from the newswire:
- S&P 500 UP 4.64 POINTS, OR 0.14 PERCENT, AT 3,361.65 AFTER MARKET OPEN
- NASDAQ UP 66.23 POINTS, OR 0.61 PERCENT, AT 10,976.51 AFTER MARKET OPEN
- DOW JONES DOWN 12.32 POINTS, OR 0.04 PERCENT, AT 27,889.66 AFTER MARKET OPEN
Trump to ban WeChat and TikTok from US app stores on Sunday
The White House’s battle against Chinese tech companies could escalate over the weekend, after the US announced that WeChat and TikTok will be banned from app stores on Sunday.
The US commerce department said the ban was intended “to safeguard the national security of the United States”.
The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has demonstrated the means and motives to use these apps to threaten the national security, foreign policy, and the economy of the US. Today’s announced prohibitions, when combined, protect users in the US by eliminating access to these applications and significantly reducing their functionality.
Apple and Google would not be able to allow the app on their US stores, which account for the vast majority of mobile phones globally.
Commerce secretary Wilbur Ross said:
Today’s actions prove once again that President Trump will do everything in his power to guarantee our national security and protect Americans from the threats of the Chinese Communist Party.
Any ban could be removed before it takes effect, and users of the app currently are not likely to see any immediate changes on their phones.
Got any 2ps or £2s in your pocket? You aren’t alone.
The Royal Mint will not produce any new £2 or 2p coins for at least a decade, as its stocks remain high because of the slump in use of cash, a trend that has accelerated during the coronavirus pandemic.
The rapid decline in demand for coins has left the Mint, which has been producing coins in Britain for more than 1,000 years, with a mountain of excess stock.
You can read the full report here for a change:
The FTSE 100 is still in the doldrums, down by 0.4% at about 6,028 points, but it looks like US stocks are on course to gain ground when they open shortly.
Futures suggest the tech-focused Nasdaq will gain 0.5%, while the main benchmark, the S&P 500, will rise by 0.2%. The Dow Jones industrial average, which is more sensitive to single-stock movements, is roughly flat.
The EU has signed a deal with drug companies Sanofi and GlaxoSmithKline to provide as many as 300m doses of a possible coronavirus vaccine.
Member states also have the ability to donate reserved doses to lower- and middle-income countries, an option if other vaccines such as one being developed by Oxford University and AstraZeneca are successful.
The European commission, the EU’s executive body, has already signed a contract with AstraZeneca and is discussing similar agreements with Johnson & Johnson, CureVac, Moderna and BioNTech.
European commission president Ursula von der Leyen said:
With today’s contract with Sanofi-GSK, the European commission shows once again its commitment to ensuring equitable access to safe, effective and affordable vaccines not only for its citizens but also for the world’s poorest and most vulnerable people.
Agreements with other companies will be concluded soon and build a diversified portfolio of promising vaccines, based on various types of technologies, increasing our chances to find an effective remedy against the virus.”
Former Labour deputy leader Tom Watson, who accepted an advisory role with the owner of Paddy Power this week, previously described the company’s actions as “dirty” and “money-grabbing” after it took bets on the murder trial of former athlete Oscar Pistorius.
In an exchange with a company representative on BBC Radio 5 Live, Watson also said the company was “not remotely interested in anything other than making money”.
The emergence of the comments could prove awkward for the former shadow culture minister as he prepares to join his new colleagues at Flutter Entertainment, the owner of Paddy Power, on a salary described as “less than six figures”.
You can read the full report here:
Updated
Foreign-based cannabis firms could potentially be allowed to float on the London Stock Exchange - provided they produce medicinal cannabis or cannabis oil, and the financial watchdog is satisfied they aren’t breaking UK law.
The Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) on Friday said it would have to be satisfied that the proceeds a company makes do not fall foul of the UK’s 2002 Proceeds of Crime Act, while meeting other requirements for a listing.
The FCA has issued new guidance following queries from overseas-licensed cannabis firms who are eyeing a London listing - especially those based in Canada, where medicinal cannabis has been legal since 2001 and recreational use is also permitted. Many companies are sizing up ways of expanding their businesses.
UK-based medicinal cannabis companies considering an IPO would need to prove to the watchdog that they had relevant Home Office licences.
The FCA noted that it would weed out listings for any recreational cannabis company, wherever they are based, given that possession and supply of cannabis remain a criminal offence in the UK.
The watchdog intends to issue fuller guidance in due course.
Updated
Focus on pubs and clubs for possible new lockdown restrictions unfair - industry
The possible imposition of new restrictions on hospitality venues across England would unfairly hit night clubs, pubs and bars, according to the head of a trade association representing venues.
The BBC reported that new England-wide measures are under consideration that could see hospitality businesses shut to slow a surge of coronavirus cases.
“Circuit break” measures being discussed reportedly include asking some hospitality businesses to close, or limiting the opening hours of some pubs and restaurants nationwide.
Michael Kill, chief executive of the Night Time Industries Association, said:
We have been monitoring discussions over further restrictions across the UK, in particular around the night time economy. While we in no way endorse any compromise on public health we have to consider the evidence presented which seems to be unfairly focused on the businesses within the wider hospitality sector.
There is clear evidence both within the UK and internationally that transmission beds are within households. This is supported by discussions with Public Health England and in particular, statistical evidence from countries like Switzerland, where 27.1% of infection is in households, 1.9% in nightclubs, and 1.6 % in bars.
The return of schools, universities and other industries coupled with increased testing will all be factors in rising cases, so we must ask why the narrative from government is focused around hospitality as the cause for these increases.
Shares in airlines, hotel groups and pub companies have tumbled, after it emerged that the government is weighing up tough new “circuit break” restrictions to avert a second wave of Covid-19 infections.
International Airlines Group, which owns British Airways, was the biggest loser on the FTSE 100, down by more than 10% by the early afternoon, while the aircraft engine maker Rolls-Royce was not far behind, down 5%, and easyJet fell nearly 8%.
Ireland’s Ryanair will cut a further one in five of its flights scheduled in October, blaming Irish and EU governments for what it called “excessive and defective” travel restrictions.
The move comes on top of an earlier 20% reduction in flights in September and October, which it announced in August, blaming a drop in bookings and the introduction of fresh quarantine requirements.
The World Trade Organisation (WTO) has narrowed down the candidate list for the global body’s director general, with three women and former UK minister Liam Fox among the shortlisted candidates.
Five candidates have survived from the eight original nominees. They are Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala of Nigeria, Yoo Myung-hee of the Republic of Korea, Amina C. Mohamed of Kenya, Mohammad Maziad Al-Tuwaijri of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and Liam Fox of the United Kingdom.
This means that Jesús Seade Kuri of Mexico, Abdel-Hamid Mamdouh of Egypt and Tudor Ulianovschi of Moldova have been knocked out.
A second round of the selection process will run until 6 October, when the five candidates will be whittled down to two. The full exlanation can be found on the WTO website.
There are fair few interesting insights in the latest furlough scheme data update.
- The arts and entertainment sector had the most workers on furlough. Some 45% of arts, entertainment and recreation workers were furloughed at the end of July, with accommodation and food services next at 43%.
- Some 2.26m women were furloughed at the end of July compared with 2.15m men.
- London had the highest take-up rate of 17% of workers furloughed against the UK average of 16%.
In a press release (that did not mention the 4.8m workers still absent from work) chancellor Rishi Sunak said the figures showed the furlough scheme was a “success”.
He was focusing on the number of workers in the retail industry on furlough, which halved from the start of the pandemic from 1.85m to 789,000.
Sunak said:
These figures show the success of our furlough scheme - making sure people’s jobs are there for them to return to.
That so many businesses have been able to get back to trading, and bring their staff back to the workplace is a testament to the impact the scheme has had.
As many as 5.3m UK workers still furloughed at end of July - Treasury
The latest figures from the UK Treasury show that as many as 5.3m workers remained on furlough at the end of July, although nearly a million returned to part-time work as the government started to wind down the scheme.
The scheme, introduced to save jobs during the government-imposed lockdown, paid 80% of furloughed workers’ wages up to £2,500 per month. The number of workers furloughed under the coronavirus job retention scheme peaked at 8.9m on 8 May but fell to 4.8m by 31 July.
The Treasury’s statisticians warned that it estimates this figure could be in the region of 10% higher, or around 5.3m once all returns are received and revisions made.
950,000 workers – 20% of those furloughed nationally – went back to offices, shops, restaurants and factories to work on a part-time basis during July.
It is not just Ryanair that is taking a bit of a battering from the increase in restrictions across Europe: British Airways owner International Airlines Group has now lost 10%.
The pan-European Stoxx 600 index is flat, but travel and leisure stocks shed the most among sectors with a 2.4% fall, Reuters reports.
Ryanair shares in Dublin are down 4.7%.
The FTSE 100 has fallen by 0.36% so far this morning, with a mixed picture across European stocks.
One reason for the stock market selloff in the UK may be the growing prospect of new coronavirus restrictions across the country. Health secretary Matt Hancock was this morning asked if he was considering a new national lockdown. He said:
I have learned over the last nine months not ever to rule anything out. However, it is not the proposal that’s on the table.
This is a big moment for the country. We are seeing an acceleration in the number of cases. And we are also seeing that the number of people hospitalised with coronavirus is doubling every eight days. We are now starting to see the effects in hospital.
Something that could be on the table, however, is restrictions on pubs and restaurants, which reportedly could be asked to shut or shorten opening hours, according to the BBC’s political editor, Laura Kuenssberg.
That would be a huge blow to the hospitality industry, which is already suffering from social distancing requirements and reduced footfall - while the last government furlough support will end next month.
You can follow all of the UK political developments on the UK live blog here:
Ryanair cuts flights, compares Irish restrictions to North Korea
Ryanair, Europe’s largest airline, has cut its flight schedule for October by 20%, as it compared Irish travel restrictions to the North Korean dictatorship.
The Irish budget airline will now only fly 40% of the schedule it planned pre-pandemic, it announced on Friday.
In a statement quoting an unnamed Ryanair spokesperson, the airline said Ireland was “locked up like North Korea since 1 July, while at the same time Italy and Germany removed all intra-EU travel restrictions and have delivered Covid case rates which are less than half the rate”.
A Ryanair spokesman said the company was “disappointed” to cut capacity. In a statement the spokesman said:
As customer confidence is damaged by government mismanagement of Covid travel policies, many Ryanair customers are unable to travel for business or urgent family reasons without being subjected to defective 14 day quarantines.
While it is too early yet to make final decisions on our winter schedule (from November to March), if current trends and EU governments’ mismanagement of the return of air travel and normal economic activity continue, then similar capacity cuts may be required across the winter period.
Some news from this morning for stock exchange followers: the London Stock Exchange Group is getting closer to selling the main Italian bourse to French rival Euronext.
The LSE has entered exclusive talks with Euronext to sell the Borsa Italiana exchange in Milan (see the pic of the grand building and interesting choice of statue), it confirmed today.
The French operator has seen off bids by Deutsche Boerse and Switzerland’s Six as it looks to add another bourse to its European network, Reuters reports:
Dubbed “Project Botticelli”, the LSE’s sale of the Milan stock exchange is politically sensitive in Rome because of concerns about who could take control of Borsa’s bond platform, which handles trading of Italy’s government debt.
The LSE is selling Borsa as part of regulatory remedies to see through its $27bn purchase of data provider Refinitiv. Offers for Borsa valued the Italian exchange up to €4bn (£3.7bn), sources had said before the LSE board met on Thursday to review the bids on the table.
NatWest Group, formerly known as Royal Bank of Scotland, is reportedly considering winding down its Ulster Bank business in the Republic of Ireland, after it became more challenging to turn around the struggling lender during the pandemic.
Such a decision by Ulster’s UK parent company would put 2,500 jobs at risk and could see the closure of 88 branches in the Republic, as reported by the Irish Times.
Ulster Bank made a loss in the second quarter of the year, and its parent company has been grappling with its high costs and low profitability for some time.
When asked about Ulster Bank at NatWest’s half-year results at the end of July, group chief executive Alison Rose said that Covid-19 presented “different challenges to the economy” and the group would “continue to consider all strategic options in relation to that business”.
Rose added that NatWest’s strategy to grow Ulster Bank’s business “organically and safely” hadn’t changed and noted it had grown both the personal mortgage and some of the commercial share in 2019. NatWest Group declined to comment on further outcomes.
Clothing stores suffer amid uneven retail sales bounceback
And the ONS also has some handy analysis of how different parts of the retail sector have been affected by the pandemic. There have been some big winners, but also a lot of losers.
Non-store retailing has surged, but apart from food every other part of the sector has suffered a big decline in sales that still has not been made back, even as shops have opened.
If a significant amount of that spending does not return to those shops that would imply a major structural shift in the UK’s spending, rapidly accelerated by the pandemic.
Jonathan Athow, deputy national statistician for economic statistics at the ONS, said that the high street, and clothing stores in particular, are struggling.
Could there be a double dip in retail sales? That would certainly be one potential upshot of rising unemployment.
Here is the picture so far for overall sales volumes:
Analysts caution that winter looks bleak for UK retail
The August retail figures show that the UK retail industry had a stronger summer than might have been expected, but by most accounts it looks much less appealing as winter approaches.
With the government’s test and trace operation suffering from massive demand and new restrictions on millions of Britons - not to mention an expected wave of redundancies ahead - there is a lot standing in the way of further strength for retailers.
Aled Patchett, head of retail and consumer goods at Lloyds Bank, said:
August proved a far better month than most retailers expected, with many market towns and retail parks benefitting from increased footfall as consumers holidayed at home and fears around Covid-19 eased for a short while. However, there remains huge uncertainty for shops, particularly those in city centres.
With the autumn/winter season set to be characterised by uncertainty and increased social restrictions, we can expect to see further changes across the sector as businesses look to reshape their models for a ‘Covid Christmas’. Naturally, there is growing anxiety among those who bank on a successful golden quarter given the impact social distancing could have on this year’s festivities.
Consumer spending is clearly headed for a substantial rebound in the third quarter after contracting a record 23.1% in the second quarter, said Howard Archer, chief economic advisor to the EY ITEM Club, a forecaster. However, he warned:
There is considerable uncertainty as to just how willing and able consumers will be to spend beyond the third quarter. Indeed, persistent consumer caution is seen as a significant risk that could limit the UK recovery.
The fundamentals for consumers have taken a clear downturn as a result of COVID-19, and they are likely to remain under pressure in the near term at least. Many people have already lost their jobs despite the supportive government measures – as was highlighted by employment falling by 695,000 over April-August [...] – while others will be concerned that they may still end up losing their job once the furlough scheme ends in October.
Consumers may adopt a cautious approach to major discretionary purchases given the uncertain economic environment and heightened job insecurity. Consumer confidence currently remains at a relatively low level despite coming off recent long-term lows. Additionally, spikes in Coivd-19 cases over the coming months could magnify consumer caution and weigh on shopper footfall.
As well as the home improvement sales that the ONS highlighted, clothing sales were also a big contributor to retail sales growth.
Clothes sales rose by 13.5%, a sign that “discretionary spending continued to recover”, said Andrew Wishart, a UK economist at Capital Economics, a consultancy.
Having already exceeded their pre-virus level in July, the further rise in retail sales in August shows the striking rebound of consumer spending after the crisis. That chimes with the Bank of England’s payments data which, as we learnt in the September minutes yesterday, suggests that overall consumer spending may have already made a full recovery.
The strength of retail sales is particularly striking in a month when non-retail spending, particularly on restaurant meals due to the eat out to help out scheme, also picked up.
However, Wishart also offers the rather enormous caveat that there are big clouds on the economic horizon as winter draws in and support for UK workers’ incomes is withdrawn. He said:
But spending may yet stutter as the furlough scheme is wound down and unemployment rises, weighing on household incomes and job security. And other parts of the economy, such as investment, are taking much longer to recover. That’s why we think it won’t be until around the start of 2022 that GDP recovers to its pre-virus level. And with virus case numbers accelerating, the risk is it takes longer.
Some more details on the UK’s retail sales increase: it appears that the online sales surge since lockdowns redirected spending away from bricks and mortar shops has slightly abated - but it still looks like it could have a lasting effect.
The ONS said:
Online retail sales fell by 2.5% in August when compared with July, but the strong growth experienced over the pandemic has meant that sales were still 46.8% higher than February’s pre-pandemic levels.
There has been particularly strong growth in online food retail - up 90% year-on-year - which tallies with the booming demand for online grocery delivery (even if demand dropped back slightly in August). Online household goods sales are up by almost as much, at 80% year-on-year.
It’s looking like a fairly dreary start on stock market indices across Europe.
The FTSE 100’s declines have been led by industrials such as GKN owner Melrose, jet engine maker Rolls-Royce and weapons maker BAE Systems. Gold and silver miner Polymetal was the worst performer after its biggest shareholder sold its stake.
Across Europe the Stoxx 600 index was flat in opening trades. Germany’s Dax was flat, France’s Cac 40 was down 0.1%, and Spain’s Ibex fell 0.3%.
DIY helps retail sales to continued growth since coronavirus lockdown
Good morning, and welcome to our live coverage of business, economics and global financial markets.
UK retail sales grew for the fourth consecutive month since April’s lockdown in August, but the pace of growth slowed markedly.
Sales volumes increased by 0.8% compared to the previous month, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said, down from the 3.7% growth over July or the surges of 12.1% and 13.9% seen in May and June.
One helpful factor was increased spending on home improvements, with sales volumes at household goods stores now up by 9.9% when compared with February.
Britain’s recovery from the pandemic lockdown will in large part be driven by the UK consumer, so the slowing of growth back to pre-pandemic growth levels might suggest that the prospects of a V-shaped economic recovery are receding - or at least are not evenly spread across the economy. The ONS said:
In August, there was a mixed picture within the different store types as non-store retailing volumes were 38.9% above February, while clothing stores were still 15.9% below February’s pre-pandemic levels.
However, the ONS also pointed out that absolute sales volumes are still up by 4.0% when compared with February’s pre-pandemic level. Economists had forecast the growth slowdown, with an average expectation of 0.7%.
In financial markets stocks across most of Asia rose despite Wall Street’s declines last night, with shares in China gaining 2% on the Shanghai and Shenzhen indices.
However, the FTSE 100 dipped at the opening bell by 0.2%.
The agenda
- 9am BST: Italy industrial orders, July (previous: 23.4% month-on-month growth)
- 1:30pm BST: Canada retail sales, July (previous: 23.7% m-o-m; consensus: 1%)