US traders can now catch their collectives breath after the choppiest trading session in several weeks.
It wasn’t as dramatic as the massive selloffs back in February and March (which still give me the shivers), but certainly a volatile day.
We’ll find out tomorrow whether investors are still spooked, so please pop back for more stock market and economic coverage.
In the meantime, you can catch up with all the latest developments in our main Covid-19 liveblog:
Goodnight. GW
Today’s losses mean the Dow is slightly negative for 2020, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite index is still up 27% since January.
Updated
Full story: Stock markets tumble as investors sell off tech stock amid US job fears
Here’s our US business editor Dominic Rushe on today’s market selloff:
Stock markets have lost some of their spectacular gains made over the past several months, as investors sold off high-flying tech companies and worried about the continuing crisis in the US jobs market.
In New York the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 808 points, or 2.78%, after passing 29,000 for the first time since February on Wednesday. The S&P 500 was down 3.5% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq fell 4.9%.
Both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq had set their latest record highs a day earlier, and the latter index is still up nearly 28% for the year. The S&P 500 had been up nine of the last 10 trading days and posted its fifth straight monthly gain in August.
In London, the sell-off ended a rally on the FTSE 100, which closed 90 points lower at 5,850. The index is now down 22% for the year. Markets across Europe also ended the day lower.
Big tech companies have seen huge gains in their share price in recent months as investors bet the firms would continue posting huge profits even with many coronavirus restrictions still in place, as people might spend even more time online with their devices. Market watchers have questioned recently whether those gains were overdone.....
More here:
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Worryingly, the amount of volatility in the markets has also risen.
Investing.com has the details:
A sharp rise in volatility also rattled investors, with the CBOE Volatility Index, the so-called fear index, surging 25% to a nearly two-month high.
Energy joined the selloff late as oil prices struggled amid ongoing concerns over the strength of crude demand.
Wall Street suffers biggest fall since June
Ding ding! The closing bell has rung, and the US stock market has officially posted its biggest one-day drop since 11 June.
Although the Dow Jones industrial average did claw its way back slightly in the last few minutes, there are still substantial losses out there.
But while the selloff was chunky, it only takes the market down to last week’s levels, following a string of record highs recently.
The tech stocks are definitely at the bottom of the class tonight - having been shining lights for many months.
Here’s the closing prices.
- Dow: down 808 points or 2.8% at 28,291
- S&P 500: down 125 points or 3.5% at 3,455.00
- Nasdaq: down 598 points or 4.96% at 11,458
Among the tech stocks, Apple plunged by 8% to close at $120.88 - some way below its stock split price. That, by our maths, wipes around $180bn off its value.
Amazon fell 4.6%, Tesla lost 9%, while Alphabet (Google) shed 5.1% and Facebook dipped by 3.7%.
Traders are now trying to weigh up what just happened.
Was it just a bout of profit taking, following the huge rally in tech stocks? Are investors rotating into undervalued companies whose stocks are now rather cheap?
Has the whole market been pumped too high by central bank money printing? It’s clearly detached itself from the wider economy in recent months - could a bubble be bursting?
Are traders getting anxious about the economy again? US unemployment levels are still painfully high, more than six months into the Covid-19 crisis.
Then there are political considerations, and the threat of a contested presidental election in two months time. That is already creating volatility in the markets, and likely to only get worse.
Updated
Just five minutes to go until the closing bell....
Dow down 1,000 points
With 30 minutes to go, the Dow Jones Industrial average is now down a hefty 1,025 points at 28,074, down 3.3%.
Unless it recovers, the Dow could post its first quadruple-digit loss since 11 June.
Today would also be the biggest percentage drop since then (a better measure than points, although not as dramatic!)
Tesla continues to slide tonight, now down 9.6% at $404.
That means Elon Musk’s electric self-driving car company has lost almost 20% of its value since Monday night! Shares had surged to a record high at the start of the week, after Tesla split its stock - from $2,210 to $442.
Even so, Tesla are up nearly 400% this year, and only at a seven-session low. Still, anyone who bought on Monday might be a little concerned...
It’s important not to get carried away about today’s losses.
Sure, these are big daily moves. If you’re a $2.2 trillion company like Apple, a 7% plunge wipes out lots of value. Roughly $150bn, which is as much as Unilever (the biggest company in the FTSE) is worth today.
But one days falls don’t make much of a dent in the huge rally in FAANG stocks (Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix and Google) this year:
But.... it’s also important not to underplay it. These are really chunky moves:
Every sector of the Dow has fallen today, with technology down 5.6%, consumer cyclicals losing 2.8% and industrial stocks off 2.5%.
Apple remains the top faller on the storied index, down 7% at $122 - its lowest level since the stock split last weekend, followed by Microsoft (-5.8%) and new arrival Salesforce (-5.4%).
Updated
There’s no sign of a pick-up on Wall Street.
With an hour to go, the Dow is now down a chunk 900 points, or just over 3%.
It’s firmly on track for its worst day since June (to be fair, it’s had a lot of good days since then).
Here’s our news story about the drop in US jobless claims... and the methodological change behind it:
The futures market is currently suggesting that the UK FTSE 100 will open lower on Friday.
After falling 90 points today to 5850, the Footsie is currently down another 30 points in futures trading - which would take it to a new three-month low.
Neil Wilson of Markets.com shows how technical charting suggests it could drop another 200 points:
With less than two hours trading to go, US stock indices are wallowing at their lowest points of the day:
- Dow: down 825.41 or 2.84% at 28,275
- S&P 500: down 123 points or 3.44% at 3,457
- Nasdaq: down 557 points or 4.63% at 11,498
Tech shares are sinking today because investors are questioning the sustainability of lofty valuations racked up this year, writes Bloomberg’s Claire Ballentine.
“Frankly, the deeper the pullback in tech, the healthier is is for the overall market,” said Alec Young, chief investment officer at Tactical Alpha LLC. “The market was overbought, there were too many people chasing the tech names. It’s all healthy. The valuations have been stretched.”
The Cboe Volatility Index -- a measure of expected price swings for the S&P 500 Index known as Wall Street’s “fear gauge” -- rose to the highest level since July. Bitcoin fell as much as 7.6%.
Updated
Here’s the Financial Times’s take:
A sharp sell-off among the world’s largest technology shares sent the US stock market tumbling on Thursday, marking an abrupt change of course for companies that had driven the rally to record highs in recent days.
Apple shares sank more than 6 per cent in afternoon trading in New York, while Amazon, Alphabet and Microsoft all fell more than 4 per cent. There were even bigger drops for previous superstar stocks including Tesla and Zoom Video Communications.
The tech-heavy Nasdaq was down close to 5 per cent and on course for its worst one-day move in more than two months. The wider S&P 500 was down 3 per cent, after gains in 11 out of the 13 previous sessions.
Technology stocks benefited from rampant investor demand in recent months but have divided opinion on the sustainability of the rally.
Esty Dwek, head of global macro strategy for Natixis Investment Managers, has called today’s sell-off a ‘healthy breather’, Marketwatch reports.
Dwek argues that the long-term argument for holding tech shares is intact:
“Tech stocks, and the overall market, hadn’t really had a bad day since June, so this is a healthy breather. It was never just going to be a straight line up.
But the long-term structural support for technology has not changed and support for equities has not either.”
This handy heatmap shows the big fallers today:
Summary: tech stocks drive selloff
Time for a quick recap, as US traders catch their breath and perhaps grab some lunch.
Stock markets have taken a tumble in the US and Europe, triggered by a sharp sell-off in technology stocks.
The Nasdaq index has slumped 5%, on track for its worst day since early June, and is currently down 590 points at 11,465. The broader S&P 500 index is also caught up in the rout, down 3.5%.
Last night, both indices closed at record highs - but today has seen sharp selling.
The Dow Jones industrial average (which includes 30 top US firms) is also being pummelled, dropping almost 3% or 800 points.
Top fallers include graphics card maker nVidia (-9%), chipmaker AMD (-8%), Apple (-6.9%) and Tesla (-7.9%). Here are some reasons why.
Bitcoin, gold and silver have all also fallen, while the US dollar has strengthened.
The selloff came after the latest US jobless figures showed that America’s labor market remained weak, while the US trade deficit jumped 18%.
Traders say profit-taking was also driving the selloff, with investors cashing in on the Nasdaq’s huge gains in recent months.
Some are also arguing that a correction was inevitable, as the value of Big Tech firms has soared dramatically since Covid-19 hit the world economy.
But the slump has caused angst in the markets. In London, the FTSE 100 suffered a late sell-off, dropping by 90 points to a new three-month low.
We’ve also seen fresh signs of the economic damage caused by Covid-19.
- In the UK, coffee shop chain Costa is cutting 1,650 jobs... just as Amazon hires thousands more people
- Retail sales across the eurozone have fallen back
- People across the globe are much more worried about the economic situation, a survey by Pew found
- France has launched a massive new stimulus programme to help its economy recover
Updated
Today’s market slide will not be well received in the White House.
Last night, president Trump tweeted excitedly that the Dow Jones had hit 29,000 points for the first time since February:
Right now, though, the Dow is down 700 points at 28,377. That would only be the lowest close in a week, so not a major reversal at this stage.
There was another reason for the stonking stock market rally since April -- the massive money-printing programme launched by the US central bank, as it cut interest rates back to near zero.
And funnily enough, one senior policymaker has just dropped a hint that the Federal Reserve really isn’t in any hurry to reverse that policy.
Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic told the Wall Street Journal that he wouldn’t worry if inflation jumped above the Fed’s goal of 2%, reaching up to about 2.4%, as long as prices remained broadly stable.
“As long as we see the trajectory moving in ways that suggest that we are not spiraling too far away from our target, I’m comfortable just letting the economy run and letting it play out.”
Today’s selloff could be quite disconcerting for the new army of retail investors who have been riding the markets higher.
Thanks to apps like Robinhood, more people have been buying stocks this year - and often picking winners such as the tech sector. Apple and Tesla’s stock splits encouraged this -- it made it cheaper to buy just a few shares, even though the actual company wasn’t more valuable.
More seasoned market players have worried that these new recruits could get burned fingers.
Mohamed El-Erian of Allianx warned in the FT this week that the rally had been driven by fear of missing out (FOMO, in market jargon). That’s not a great foundation for sustainable markets.
El-Erian explained that professional investors have been using derivatives to play the market - rather than actually buying shares whose value could tumble.
Over the past few weeks, the fear of missing out on an unceasing equity rally has increasingly been expressed through call options — contracts that give the right to buy at a fixed point in future — rather than straight equity longs.
That limits the amount at risk and gives users the ability to capture rallies. It has been supplemented by more downside “tail protection” aimed at safeguarding portfolios from sharp drops. With that, the Vix volatility index has decoupled from equity indices, adding to signals that a large market correction, should one materialise, would encourage more professional selling that could overwhelm the buy-the-dip retail investor.
This is a potentially troubling situation for central bankers, regulators and economists.
After a bruising morning on Wall Street, and an alarming late slide in Europe, here’s the state of play:
Cryptocurrency Bitcoin is also caught up in this selloff, currently down $700 or 6.2% at $10,671.
Fawad Razaqzada, analyst at ThinkMarkets, says investors had been warned to expect a tech selloff (although timing these things is rather tricky...).
Well, the warning signs were there after technology stocks kept pushing higher and the rally on the Nasdaq almost turned vertical. We have been seeing increased options volatility and valuations were becoming overstretched for some of the megacap technology shares.
What’s more, momentum indicators such as the Relative Strength Index on the major indices had reached extreme overbought levels, meaning even the most bullish speculators chasing momentum would have found it difficult to justify buying at such extreme levels.
And so the market sold off today and the selling gathered momentum as stops were presumably tripped with each broken support level. Short-selling undoubtedly added to the pressure.
As you can see here, the Nasdaq index has enjoyed a spectacular run since the market crash ended in late March.
It recovered all those losses by mid-June, and then surged sharply higher, and higher.
Today’s slump, the worst in almost three months, only takes the Nasdaq back to levels seen in late August.
But what investors are wondering, is... is this just a temporary decline, or something more serious?
Covid-19 does seem to have accelerated the move towards digital services, online working, and e-commerce, which is why everything from Apple (-6%) and Amazon (-4.6%) to Etsy (-7%) and Peloton (-8.4%) have surged this year. That’s not changed today... although, if a vaccine is rolled out soon then the global economy could return towards more normal conditions.
Also, the valuations of some tech companies have become extremely steep - Tesla overtook Visa to become the 7th most valuable US company this week.
Randy Frederick, vice-president of trading and derivatives for Charles Schwab in Austin, also reckons the sell-off is partly driven by profit taking:
He says (via Reuters):
“Some of the stocks have gotten a little pricey, and what the actual cause is to spark this selloff is difficult to say.
“The leading sector for quite a long time has been the Nasdaq, which is very heavily weighted in technology stocks so people just saw this as an opportunity to take the profits off the table.”
Salesforce, the cloud-based CRM software giant, is also caught up in today’s rout.
Its shares are down 5%, which sounds serious until you remember that they surged 25% last week after it reported strong results.
The same is (even more) true of Zoom. The video conferencing company’s shares have slumped 11% today.... three days after surging by a remarkable 40%, after posting blowout sales figures.
It’s a similar picture on the S&P 500 -- where tech companies like Juniper, nVidia and AMD are the major fallers today.
Many of these companies have been stock market darlings for months, as they’ve seen their sales boosted by the move towards remote working (and more time at home playing computer games, in nNivia’s case).
European tech stocks have taken a hammering too, plunging 3.9% in the biggest fall since late April.
Home meal delivery companies Hellofresh (-10%) and Delivery Hero (-7.8%) were badly hit, along with semiconductor firms STMicro (-6.9%) and Dialog (-7.6%).
FTSE 100 hits three-month low
Today’s rout has driven the UK stock market down to its lowest closing level since mid-May.
The FTSE 100, which has been rallying this morning, turned south in late trading and ended 90 points lower at 5850. That means the Footsie is 22% down for the year, having suffered badly in the pandemic.
The selloff was led by Scottish Management Investment Trust (-6%), which has large holdings in tech companies.
Other large fallers included Ocado (-6%), mining groups BHP (-5.8%) and Glencore (-4.3%), retailer Next (-4.4%) and housebuilder Taylor Wimpey (-4%).
Investors seem to have dropped growth stocks in favour of under-valued companies whose value have sunk this year. Travel stocks were among the few risers, including IAG (+4/9%), Carnival (+6.6%) and easyJet (+6.4%).
David Madden of CMC Markets says traders are turning their backs on tech stocks, and banking profits following the huge rally since March.
In some cases, for good reasons:
Tesla shares are in the red. The stock closed lower in the past two sessions. It was reported that Baillie Gifford, an investment management group, trimmed their stake to below 5%, from 6.32%. The fund decided to cut its shareholding in the auto-maker because the recent bullish move inflated its exposure to the stock.
Smartsheet shares are offside today in the wake of the earnings miss that was announced last night. The second quarter loss per share was 22 cents, while the consensus estimate was for a loss per share of 16 cents. Revenue jumped by 41% to $91.2 million and that topped the $86.6 million forecast. It is worth noting the stock briefly set an intra-day record high yesterday in advance of the figures, so traders had high hopes ahead of the announcement.
NVIDIA, Intel and Micron are all in the red on the back of the news that China will develop its own semiconductors. The Trump administration is applying pressure to the Chinese government by limiting the access that Chinese companies have to chips, so the Beijing administration is keen to become self-sufficient.
The selloff may partly be triggered by today’s US jobless claims report, and new fears of a trade war.
As covered earlier, the number of Americans signing on for unemployment benefit fell last week, but remained worryingly high at 881,000. The near 19% surge in the US trade deficit has also given traders a jolt.
Edward Moya of OANDA explains:
Too many Americans need benefits and this will likely remain the case for the rest of the year.
The US trade deficit also expanded to the widest level since 2008, a troubling sign that US-China tensions are about to heat up even further. President Trump campaigned in 2016 that trade wars are good, and easy to win, so financial markets will look to see if he turns up the pressure against Beijing.
Nasdaq falls 5% as selloff deepens
This is turning into a serious rout.
After many weeks of generally rising markets, the bourses are a sea of red again -- with the tech-focused Nasdaq index now down a whopping 5%.
Big fallers include Apple (-7%), Tesla (-8%), Facebook (-5.5%) and Amazon (-4.7%).
Investors are also racing back into the safety of the US dollar, which has now jumped by a cent against the pound (to $1.326). That’s hitting the gold and silver price.
There doesn’t seem to be a single trigger for this sell-off. But analysts have been warning for weeks that the markets had become disconnected from the wider economy, where growth is weak and unemployment is rising. Perhaps the correction has arrived....
Updated
Shares in Apple, the world’s most valuable company, have fallen by 5% today.
At $124, Apple’s shares are now below the level at which they split last week (investors got four cheaper shares for each old one).
Although today’s selloff is chunky, it only takes the Nasdaq down to a one-week low....
The sight of Wall Street tumbling sharply has hit nerves in Europe.
The FTSE 100 has now swiftly lost 45 points, or 0.75%, in late afternoon trading. Mining stocks (sensitive to global growth) are among the main fallers, along with consumer-focused firms like Ocado, and Reckitt Benckiser.
All three US stock indices are now in the red, and heading for their biggest falls in over two month.
- Dow: down 311 points or 1% at 28,788, having hit a six-month high last night. Now up 1% for the year.
- S&P 500: down 63 points or 1.8% at 3,516, having hit a record high last night. Now up 9% for the year
- Nasdaq: down 416 points or 3.5% at 11,639, having hit a record high last night. Now up 30% for the year.
The tech selloff is accelerating, sending the Nasdaq down by around 3%.
It’s on track for its worst day since late June (although it’s not had many bad days recently...)
The stock market rally in Europe is fizzling out too.
The FTSE 100 index is now down by 4 points at 5937, with mining company BHP (-4.7%), online supermarket Ocado (-3%) and retailer Next (-2.9%) among the fallers.
Companies worst hit by the pandemic are rallying, though, with engineering firm Melrose up 14% after it told shareholders that summer trading had been stronger than feared.
France’s CAC is still strong, though, up 1.3% as investors welcome the new stimulus package of wage subsidies, investment, transport improvements and money for green energy.
Pew: Views of the economy turn sharply negative
Just in: People around the globe are much gloomier about their economic prospects following the Covid-19 outbreak, new research from the Pew Institute shows.
Pew found that public attitudes about the economy have turned bleak in much of the world, with nearly half of people expecting things to get worse in 2021.
It explains:
Overall, a median of only 31% of adults across the surveyed nations assess their country’s current economic situation as good, while 68% say conditions are bad.
In 10 of the countries surveyed – including all of those surveyed in North America and the Asia-Pacific region – majorities consider the current economic situation bad.
In Europe, attitudes are mixed. Northern Europeans, such the Danes, are relatively positive while those in Belgium, the UK, France, Spain and Italy all have a very negative outlook.
Pew also found a sharp split between generations in America -- the younger you are, the more pessimistic (or realistic?) your view:
In the U.S., 82% of those ages 18 to 29 say the current economic situation is bad, compared with 58% of those ages 50 and older.
Younger Americans are also less likely than their older counterparts to expect improvements in the economic situation.
Encouraging economic news from the US - the service sector grew in August at the fastest rate in 17 months.
Companies took on new staff, to help handle a jump in new business, reports data firm Markit. That lifted the US services PMI index to 55 (showing decent growth) from 50 (showing stagnation).
Although tech stocks are down, out-of-favour shares in banks and energy companies are up on Wall Street.
That’s helping the Dow Jones industrial average to rise above last night’s six-month high; currently it’s up 56 points or 0.2% at 29,157.
And we’re off..... and the tech shares are (as expected) taking a dip.
The Nasdaq Composite has fallen back from this week’s record high, losing 200 points or 1.6% to 11,856 points.
Over in the US, the boom in technology stocks may take a breather today.
The Nasdaq is down 1% in pre-market trading. That’s a rare sight in recent months, as the index has surged since the February-March crash and is up nearly 35% this year.
Apple is down 3% in pre-market trading while Tesla is down nearly 9%. Both companies split their stock last weekend, a move which triggered even more buying. Some of those gains may be unwinding, though....
Updated
Back on Costa Coffee’s job cuts...Julie Palmer, partner at Begbies Traynor, points out that new restrictions to protect customers will hurt its revenues:
“Like many others, Costa Coffee has only been able to generate a mere fraction of the revenue it would typically if open as usual. While the coffee chain was able to reopen last month, social distancing measures have had to be implemented, limiting the number of customers and potential earnings. Additionally, the lack of workers returning to offices has meant the regular trade from these consumers has been absent.
With the uncertainty seemingly not coming to an end any time soon, it has left the business with no option but to look to reduce costs, starting with its workforce.
She fears that yet more hospitality companies will cut jobs, especially as the looming winter months will make outdoor eating and drinking much less appealing.
Attempts are being made by some businesses to work with local councils in order to utilise outdoor spaces where consumers feel more comfortable, but with winter approaching, they are running out of time. It’s likely that as businesses try to recoup their losses from the past few months, many others will follow a similar suit to Costa Coffee.”
In other economic news... the US trade deficit has surged as Americans imported much more than they exported.
Marketwatch has the details:
The U.S. trade deficit jumped 18.9% in July owing to a big snapback in imports, the government said Thursday.
The trade gap increased to $63.6bn from $53.5bn in the prior month - above the $58.9 billion MarketWatch forecast.
Imports shot up 10.9% while exports advanced 8.1%. The increase in both imports and exports is a good sign in many ways, pointing to stronger consumer spending at home and increased demand for American-made goods abroad.
Yet global trade is still considerably weaker compared to before the coronavirus pandemic and it will take time to recover.
US jobless claims: instant reaction
Danske Bank points out that the number of new jobless claims in America is now the lowest since the crisis began:
James Picerno of Capitol Spectator says the jobs market is still under stress:
Ben Casselman of the New York Times points out that the picture is worse if you include support for self-employed people (such as gig economy staff) who are currently out of work (and can’t file initial claims):
US jobless claims falls to 881k
Just in: the number of Americans filing new unemployment benefit claims has fallen, but remains painfully high.
Last week, 881,000 fresh claims for jobless support were filed in America - down from just over 1 million the previous week, new figures show.
That’s a bigger drop than expected. But it’s still more than in any single week before the pandemic hit the US economy this spring.
It also includes new adjustments made by the US Labor Department to take account of the pandemic.
The number of ‘continuing claims’ (Americans who’ve been claiming unemployment support for at least two weeks) also fell, to 13.25m from 14.49m a week ago. Such a historically high figure indicates the labor market is still weak.
Full story: Costa job cuts blow
Here’s my colleague Sarah Butler on Costa’s job cut plans:
Costa Coffee is to cut up to 1,650 jobs in its cafes – more than one in 10 of its workforce, as it said trading remained challenging during the Covid-19 pandemic.
The company, which was bought by Coca Cola two years ago, said it had now reopened 2,400 of its 2,700 UK outlets all of which closed for six weeks during the high street lockdown.
All Costa staff were put on the government’s furlough job retention scheme with full pay but as that scheme winds to a close the coffee shop group said it will remove the assistant store manager role across all shops to cut costs.
Britain’s retail sector has already suffered hefty job cuts, and Costa’s move will add to the UK’s unemployment woes.
In recent months, several major chains have announced redundancies plans, with Marks & Spencer cutting 7,000 jobs, Boot’s laying off 4,000 workers, and Pret a Manger lowering its UK headcount by almost 2,900.
Debenhams, Dixons Carphone, DW Sports, WH Smiths, Burberry, Ted Baker and River Island have also announced job cut plans.
Retailers are reel from store closures during the pandemic, weak footfall on the high street, and the move towards online shopping.
Costa says it’s cutting jobs now because there is so much economic uncertainty, even though sales have begun to recover.
Costa closed nearly all 2,700 of its UK stores for six weeks during the pandemic.
Since May, stores have been re-opening as safely and as quickly as possible, with over 2,400 stores now trading. While trade is returning, helped by the Government’s VAT reduction, which Costa passed on to customers in full, and the recent “Eat Out To Help Out” Scheme, there remain high levels of uncertainty as to when trade will recover to pre-COVID levels.
Costa Coffee to axe up to 1,650 jobs
Just in: Costa Coffee is planning to cut up to 1,650 jobs, adding to the tens of thousands of jobs already lost across UK retail.
The coffeehouse chain says it is planning to axe the role of assistant store manager across its UK business, as part of a set of “difficult decisions”.
Costa employs around 16,000 people in the UK, at 1,600 of its stores (another 10,000 people work at 1,100 franchises). It hopes to find alternative jobs for some of the staff affected by today’s news.
Neil Lake, managing director for Costa Coffee UK and Ireland, says:
“Today’s announcement to our store teams was an extremely difficult decision to make. Our baristas are the heart of the Costa business and I am truly sorry that many now face uncertainty following today’s news.
“We have had to make these difficult decisions to protect the business and ensure we safeguard as many jobs as possible for our 16,000 team members, whilst emerging stronger ready for future growth.
“As a proud member of the UK high street, we remain committed to the role Costa plays in supporting the economic recovery of the country, but today I want to say a huge thank you to all of our team members that are affected by this announcement and we will be supporting you throughout this process.”
Updated
The drop in eurozone retail sales last month (see here) shows that Covid-19 is still having a serious impact on the region’s economy, says Josie Dent, senior economist at the CEBR:
The retail recovery in the eurozone came to an abrupt halt, with a 1.3% monthly contraction in sales volumes in July. These worse-than-expected figures highlight that we are not yet clear of the impacts of the coronavirus pandemic on eurozone economies.
While job retention schemes are in place, households’ incomes and spending power are somewhat protected from the impacts of the recession. However, governments cannot finance such schemes indefinitely.”
AP: Slammed by virus, France unveils huge economic rescue plan
France’s new economic recovery plan is being unveiled as the country’s daily Covid-19 case total continues to rise (prompting the UK to impose new quarantine rule last month).
Here’s Associated Press’s take:
Facing resurgent virus infections, France’s government is unveiling details Thursday of a 100 billion-euro ($118 billion) recovery plan aimed at creating jobs, saving struggling businesses and pulling the country out of its worst economic slump since World War II.
Prime Minister Jean Castex said on RTL radio ahead of the presentation that the plan hopes to create 160,000 jobs next year and restore France’s economic growth levels of 2019 by 2022 — the year of France’s next presidential elections.
Called “France Reboot,” the plan includes money for renovating buildings and boosting rail use to reduce emissions.
France reported more than 7,000 virus cases Thursday, the highest daily rate in Europe and well above the several hundred cases a day in May and June, when France was emerging from strict lockdown and testing less. The number of people in intensive care with the virus is slowly edging up, though is far from the crisis levels of March and April.
Despite the rise, France’s schools reopened their doors this week for in-person classes, and authorities are encouraging people to return to work.
COVID-19 has killed more than 30,600 people in France.
Online mattress seller Eve has just hiked its sales guidance, after enjoying strong trading this year.
Eve saw a jump in sales during the early stage of the pandemic, and this hasn’t fizzled out yet. It told shareholders:
Trading was strong in May and June and this momentum continued into early July. Since then trading patterns have remained above the Board’s expectations through the rest of July and August.
This could be another sign that consumers have been sprucing up their homes, using the savings from not commuting to work or eating and drinking out as often.
Eurozone retail sales stumble
In a worrying sign, retail sales across the eurozone fell back in July - underlining the need for fresh stimulus measures.
Consumer spending shrank by 1.3% compared with June, when shops benefited from a post-lockdown surge in demand.
Spending on non-food items fell by nearly 3%, eurostat reports, while petrol and diesel bills rose:
In the euro area in July 2020, compared with June 2020, the volume of retail trade decreased by 2.9% for non-food products, remained unchanged for food, drinks and tobacco and increased by 4.3% for automotive fuels.
Spending was still 0.4% higher than a year ago, but this will concern policymakers - it could show the economic rebound is fizzling out (echoing the slowdown at eurozone service sector companies in August).
Updated
Amazon to boost UK workforce by 10,000
While many UK firms cut jobs, Amazon is bucking the trend by hiring thousands more staff.
The e-commerce giant (one of the big winners from the pandemic) says it is creating 10,000 new permanent roles across the UK this year.
Three thousand of the roles have already been filled, with another 7,000 being recruited by the end of 2020. Some of the jobs are in Amazon’s warehouses, but there’s also technology, engineering and back-office roles.
It says:
Amazon has already added 3,000 new permanent roles to its workforce across its UK network of fulfilment centres, sort centres and delivery stations – including at a new hi-tech fulfilment centre in the North East of England which opened in May. The company will add a further 7,000 new permanent roles by the end of 2020 across more than 50 sites, including Corporate offices and two new fulfilment centres launching in the autumn in the North East and in the Midlands.
The new roles, including engineers, graduates, HR and IT professionals, health and safety and finance specialists, as well as the teams who will pick, pack and ship customer orders, will help Amazon meet growing customer demand and enable small and medium sized enterprises selling on Amazon to scale their businesses.
Paul Ashworth, director of Preston business We Brand 4 You, say he’s experienced the jump in delayed and unpaid invoices first-hand:
In my sector, and I suspect in most others, the impact of the coronavirus on cashflow through late payments has been devastating.
When the country went into lockdown, companies that would typically pay us on delivery were suddenly taking three or four months to settle their invoices.“The cashflow pinch caused by Covid-19 is a major reason why so many companies have gone to the wall.
The process of chasing down invoices during the early months of the pandemic was exhausting and clearly meant you couldn’t focus on new business, which meant further damage to your business.
What we’re also now seeing is a lot of companies changing their invoice terms to protect themselves and their cashflow. Sadly, for the average small business, it’s simply a case of like it or lump it.”
More UK workers return to the office
More UK workers returned to the office last week, according to the Office for National Statistics latest data -- but a fifth are still working from home all the time.
The ONS reports:
The proportion of working adults exclusively working from home has continued to decline, reaching 20% in the latest week, compared with its high point of 38% between 11 and 14 June.
Over the last two months, the proportion working exclusively from home has followed a steadily decreasing trend. In the most recent week, the proportion of working adults who travelled to work reached 57%, its highest level since the series began, after increasing steadily over the last two months.
There’s a new advert (for a disinfectant company) running on the London underground, encouraging people to reunite with their ‘second family’ in the office (a frankly alarming prospect that could encourage many workers to stay at home)
And, as the Bank of England pointed out yesterday, it’s simply unrealistic to expect everyone back in the office fulltime:
Updated
UK firms hit with unpaid invoices
The Covid-19 crisis has left many firms holding onto unpaid bills.
The Office for National Statistics reports that 54% of businesses say they are owed outstanding invoice payments as a result of the coronavirus pandemic.
This will have a nasty impact on companies’ cash flow - at a time when many are also suffering weaker sales.
The ONS also warns that 10% of companies think they could go bust soon:
One in 10 also said that they were at a moderate or severe risk of insolvency, at 9% and 1% respectively. 48% said they were at a low risk of insolvency, 31% said they had no risk, while 11% were not sure.
Updated
Duncan Brock of the Chartered Institute of Procurement & Supply, fears that UK services companies will keep cutting jobs this autumn.
Here’s his take on August’s service sector PMI report:
“As the UK economy continues to wake from its pandemic slumber, the services sector reported a higher than expected rise in new orders and at the strongest levels since December 2016. Buoyed up by increased consumer spending from domestic markets and unfettered by lockdown measures, businesses continued to be optimistic even though obstacles to stronger growth lingered on.
Export business remained subdued as overseas sales declined for the seventh month in a row, hampered by unsettled supply chains and continuing restrictions on logistics and travel. The distressing employment numbers also darkened the mood with a high number of job cuts this month. Government support was a blessing to many firms but as this comes to an end, many service providers are resorting to redundancy schemes under the weight of operating in a tough marketplace.
With rising input costs for fuel and essential safety equipment and a potential downturn in business again, the ripple effect of this pandemic will be felt throughout the winter. Firms need to make some lasting headway to give this recovery some energy, so policymakers should be waiting in the wings to offer more support if needed.
Updated
UK services sector grows, and cuts jobs
Britain’s service sector companies grew faster than eurozone rivals - but that didn’t prevent bosses wielding the axe.
The UK services sector grew at its faster rate in over five years in August, according to Markit’s final UK service sector PMI which was just released.
It rose to 58.8 last month, from 56.5 in July, which is the best reading since April 2015. That shows a pick-up in activity as the economy reopened, although it won’t recover all the lost ground in the pandemic.
But... service sector companies across Britain also reported that employment numbers fell last month.
Markit explains:
Around one-in-three survey respondents (34%) reported a drop in staffing levels during August, while only 11% reported a rise.
Among those companies reporting a drop in payroll numbers, this was mainly linked to reviews of staffing needs and redundancy measures as their usage of furlough started to wind down.
Updated
Eurozone service companies faltered in August
The latest healthcheck on European service sectors is in....and it confirms that growth slowed sharply last month.
Data firm IHS Markit’s monthly Service Sector PMI, just released, fell to 50.5 last month from a healthier 54.7 in July.
That’s worryingly close to the 50-point mark that shows stagnation (although an improvement on the ‘flash’ reading of 50.1 released during August).
Firms reported that new business growth slowed, and net exports actually fell again.
French service sector growth weakened, while Spain and Italy fell into contraction.
Chris Williamson, chief business economist at IHS Markit, fears that the recovery of the eurozone’s private sector economy lost momentum in August.
Service sector companies across the eurozone saw growth of business activity grind almost to a halt in August, fueling worries that the post-lockdown rebound has started to fade amid ongoing social distancing restrictions linked to COVID-19.
The near-stalling needs to be viewed in the context of the strong expansion seen in July: business growth had surged to a near two-year high as economies opened up further from the severe COVID-19 lockdowns. However, the latest reading still sends a disappointing signal that the rebound has lost almost all momentum.
The deterioration was often linked to worries of resurgent COVID-19 infection rates, notably among consumer-facing companies and especially in Spain and Italy, where virus containment measures remained particularly strict.
Speaking of vaccines.... GlaxoSmithKline and Sanofi have said they’re ready to start testing their protein-based Covid-19 vaccine on humans for the first time.
The move follows promising results in earlier studies, as my colleague Joanna Partridge explains:
GSK, the world’s largest vaccine maker, and the French drugmaker Sanofi joined forces in April to work on an effective treatment to halt the deadly pandemic.
The vaccine being developed by London-headquartered GSK and Paris-based Sanofi combines existing technology used by Sanofi to make its flu vaccine, along with an add-on from GSK, known as an adjuvant, which can be mixed with a vaccine to trigger a stronger immune reaction.
The firms said the clinical trial, which includes 440 healthy adults in the US, is designed to evaluate the safety, tolerability and immune response of the vaccine, and it is hoped that first results will be received in early December 2020.
France’s stock market just hit its highest level since mid-July, while German stocks are back at levels last seen in February:
Conner Campbell of SpreadEx says:
Fuelled by hopes of stimulus stateside, and actual stimulus on the continent, the European markets surged out of the gates on Thursday.
Leading the charge was the CAC, following the unveiling of the ‘France Relaunch’ plan – a €100 billion spend on various measures, including jobs, the environment, and making the country’s economy ‘more competitive’. Obviously overjoyed, the French index rose 1.9%, lifting it to a 6-week-plus peak of 5115.
The DAX wasn’t too far behind, jumping 1.8% – or 200 points – to cross 13400, its best level since the end of February.
Stocks are also getting a currency lift this morning - the euro has fallen against the US dollar, amid speculation that the European Central Bank could launch fresh stimulus moves soon (after inflation turned negative last month).
European stock markets have opened strongly this morning, led by Paris.
The EU-wide Stoxx 600 index has rallied by 1%, adding to yesterday’s gains, with the French CAC jumping 1.6%.
In London, the FTSE 100 has gained 50 points to 5991.
France’s economic recovery package has lifted the mood in the markets, along with optimism that a Covid-19 vaccine could be released soon.
Health officials across the US have reportedly been told to expect one for health workers and high-risk groups by early November (just in time for the presidential election?).
French stimulus push: What the experts say
Paul Donovan of UBS Wealth Management says France’s stimulus programme is designed to improve the supply side of its economy.
French President Macron is taking the EU’s fiscal fund to part fund a €100bn fiscal stimulus. This is supply side focused, with tax cuts for manufacturers and retraining programs.
The objectives sound great but politicians sometimes have a habit of trying to preserve the past rather than embrace the future (per UK Prime Minister Johnson urging people to return to Dickensian office working).
Allianz economist Ludovic Subran calls it a classically wide-ranging French package
It’s a sensible mixture of temporary boosts to call for by means of activity coverage and longer-term provide by means of funding
“Nevertheless it’s very French in how it tries to get to the bottom of the entirety in a single plan.
The FT’s Europe editor Ben Hall says Paris is firing the “big fiscal bazooka”.
Jean Castex, the new French premier, will on Thursday unveil an economic stimulus plan worth €100bn or 4 per cent of gross domestic product over two years. It is, French officials say, the biggest stimulus programme of any big European country measured against national output, separate from the emergency support measures this spring which included vast loan guarantees.
It is also the first to be announced by a big economy since EU leaders agreed a €750bn recovery fund at a marathon summit in July. France is counting on using its share of the fund — expected to be some €40bn — to cover a big part of its stimulus bill and it has shaped the package accordingly. The money will be used to improve business competitiveness, accelerate the green transition and help retrain the young and those who lost their jobs in the pandemic slump.
French Prime Minister Jean Castex says the €100bn recovery plan could create 160,000 jobs by 2021, as well as erasing the economic impact of the coronavirus crisis.
Introduction: France outlines €100bn stimulus drive
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.
With the world economy suffering its worst downturn in decades, and unemployment pushing higher, governments are under pressure to do whatever it takes to protect their economies.
And this morning, France is outlining its latest response - a €100bn stimulus package to lift its economy out of recession and heal the economic pain caused by Covid-19.
The multi-pronged plan, being unveiled in Paris, is dubbed “France Relaunch”. It includes wage subsidies, tax cuts for businesses and funding for environmental projects. The aim, officials say, is to tackle deep-seated economic challenges, such as weak investment and job creation.
There’s also money to improve transport networks, and €2bn to invest in the hydrogen energy industry - to help the move to greener power sources.
Reuters has more details:
The plan earmarks in particular €35bn for making the euro zone’s second biggest economy more competitive, €30bn for more environmentally friendly energies and €25bn for supporting jobs, officials said ahead of its official presentation late on Thursday.
With the plan equating to 4% of gross domestic product, France is ploughing more public cash into its economy than any other big European country as a percentage of GDP, one of the officials said.
The plan comes after France’s economy suffered its worst quarter since the second world war - shrinking by over 13% in April-June.
Emmanuel Macron, who faces a reelection battle in 18 months time, will hope that the package can lift France’s economy back to its pre-Covid levels by 2022.
As Reuters puts it:
The plan also aims to put Macron’s pro-business push back on track with already flagged cuts in business taxes worth €10bn euros annually and fresh public funds to give a boost France’s industrial, construction and transport sectors.
Officials said the transport sector would get €11bn with €4.7bn targeting the rail network in particular while energy-efficient building renovations would be spurred with €4bn euros for public buildings and €2bn for homes.
It’s a timely move by Paris, as US politicians continue to wrangle over a new stimulus package to underpin America’s recovery.
In the UK, though, the government is talking about ‘tough choices’ amid speculation that tax rises are around the corner.....
The agenda
- 9am BST: Eurozone service sector PMI for August
- 9.30am BST: UK service sector PMI for August
- 10am BST: Eurozone retail sales figures for July
- 1.30pm BST: US weekly jobless report
- 3pm BST: Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey speech on the future of cryptocurrencies