The boss of UK retail group Next warned today that thousands of traditional jobs on the high street now have no future, due to the shift to online shopping.

Simon Wolfson said what looked to be a permanent shift to online spending was creating work for warehouse staff and couriers but that in the long run fewer people were going to be needed in shops, and their jobs would be “unviable”.

“I wouldn’t want to underestimate the difficulty that is going to cause a lot of people who work in retail.

I think it’s going to be very uncomfortable.”

Heads-up shoppers: Tesco has joined the ranks of supermarkets restricting items, to prevent panic-buying by customers nervous of a new lockdown.

Here are some charts showing the stare of the UK public finances (the latest data was released at 7am, if you’re just tuning in).

Any readers in Monaco should keep their eyes peeled for Sir Jim Ratcliffe, the UK’s richest person and high-profile Brexiter.

Ratcliffe has swapped the delights of Brexit Britain for the Principality of Monaco, a move that will deliver serious tax benefits.

Our Wealth correspondent Rupert Neate explains:

Ratcliffe, a petrochemicals magnate with an estimated £17.5bn fortune, has this week officially changed his tax domicile from Hampshire to Monaco, the sovereign city-state that is already home to many of the UK’s richest people.

It has been estimated that the move will save him £4bn in tax payments. People who live in Monaco for at least 183 days a year do not pay any income or property taxes. The highest tax rate in the UK is 45% on income above £150,000-a-year.

Before he left for Monaco, Ratcliffe was the UK’s third-highest individual taxpayer, paying £110m to the exchequer in 2017-18, according to the Sunday Times tax list.

His decision to quit Britain came soon after he was knighted by the Queen for “services to business and investment”, and the UK voted to leave the European Union.

Here’s my colleague Rob Davies on Revolution’s warning that some bars could close due to the UK’s early closure rules:

Revolution, the city centre bar chain, is considering shutting venues after it was rocked by the latest government-imposed Covid-19 restrictions, including the 10pm curfew that began this week.

Revolution, which has about 70 bars, said it was weighing up whether to launch a company voluntary arrangement (CVA) – a form of insolvency procedure that struggling businesses can use to shrink rather than risk failure.

It comes days after trade bodies warned that almost a quarter of hospitality businesses fear they will collapse before Christmas without further financial support.

In a statement, the company said the financial difficulties caused by the pandemic had been “exacerbated by the further Covid-19 related restrictions announced by the government earlier this week”.

September has been pretty rough in the markets, with the Dow Jones industrial average down 6% this month....

After a decidedly volatile week, Wall Street trading has began rather gingerly today.

• Dow: down 34 points or 0.1% at 26,780
• S&P 500: down 1 point or 0.03% at 3,245
• Nasdaq Composite: up 13 points or 0.1% at 10,686.24

Back in the markets, European bank shares have hit an all-time low today.

That shows anxiety that the eurozone recovery is fading, which could mean rising bad debts and keep interest rates at record lows for even longer (bad for profitability).

US durable goods orders were also subdued if you strip out the volatile transport sector, only up 0.4% during August.

Shares in UK gambling company William Hill have just surged 20%, on reports of possible takeover interest.

Bloomberg says that US investment management group Apollo is exploring “a potential acquisition” of William Hill, adding:

The buyout firm has approached William Hill to discuss a potential deal, the people said, asking not to be identified because the information is private.

In another blow to the UK car industry, engine production tumbled by over a third last month.

New figures from the SMMT show there was a plunge in demand from domestic manufacturers last month, and overseas buyers too.

• 106,398 UK engines produced in August as output falls -35.1%.
• Production for domestic and overseas markets declines -36.9% and -34.1% respectively.
• Year-to-date engine production now down -35.2% as coronavirus second wave looms.

Mike Hawes, SMMT chief executive, said the industry needs help - including a Brexit free trade deal.

“These figures come at an extremely worrying time for the sector as it braces for a second wave of coronavirus. Further restrictions both here and in important export destinations will dent consumer and business confidence and inject yet more uncertainty into an already fragile market.

Meanwhile the end of the Brexit transition period looms large and while yesterday’s announcements by the Chancellor are welcome, we urgently need a zero tariff deal agreed and in place by year end to safeguard skilled manufacturing jobs in this sector.”

Bar chain Revolution has announced it could be forced to shut some of its establishments, due to the government’s new Covid-109 restrictions.

In a statement just released, Revolution say the latest changes - including 10pm losing time and mandatory table service - have “exacerbated” the already challenging trading conditions.

It is now consulting with advisors on strategic options. One possibility is a company voluntary arrangement (a debt restructuring deal with creditors which can be used to terminate leases), to reduce the size of its estate.

Revolution says:

The Board is currently evaluating the potential impact of the latest developments on the Group’s business before deciding what the next steps should be. One of the potential options being explored is a reduction in the size of the Group’s estate by the implementation of a company voluntary arrangement (“CVA”).

No decisions have yet been made and there is much further work to complete before the Board decides on any appropriate course of action. Revolution has a strong balance sheet following the £15m equity fundraising and the extension of its banking facilities announced in June but the Board believes that the long term nature and potential impact of the latest operating restrictions means that it must consider all necessary options to ensure that its business remains viable.

Companies across the pub and restaurant sector have warned that the early closing time will have a serious impact on sales and consumer confidence.

It began last night, as this video clip shows.....

Companies most vulnerable to the Covid-19 pandemic are leading the fallers on the London stock market today.

British Airways parent company, IAG, is now down 5.7% at 89p - its lowest point since November 2011.

Rolls-Royce, which makes and services jet engines, has lost 3% to 145p, its weakest level since early 2004.

Hotel chain Intercontinental (-2.6%), property developer Land Securities (-1.8%) and catering firm Compass (-1.7%) are also down. Miners have also fallen, on concerns that the coronavirus will hurt global growth for some time.

But the FTSE 100 is still becalmed, really, down just 10 points with water firm United Utilities (+2%), repair business Homeserve (+1.5%) and Lloyds Bank (+1.5%)in the risers.

Covid-19 is also creating a new breed of ‘reverse commuters’, as London-based workers seek employment outside the capital.

My colleague Hilary Osborne explains:

Londoners are increasingly looking for jobs outside the capital as the city’s economy stalls, one of the UK’s largest recruitment sites has found, raising the prospect of a wave of “reverse commuters” or a continued exodus of residents.

Figures from Indeed, based on millions of job adverts and searches, show that on 18 September, the number of posts advertised in London was down by 55% on the same date in 2019.

The sharp decline reflects the impact of closed offices and reduced hospitality services on the city’s jobs market.

Many restaurants, hotels and shops in business and tourist areas remain closed or are operating at a reduced capacity.

With vacancies thin on the ground, Indeed said more jobseekers living in London were now looking for work elsewhere. In August, the number looking outside London was up by 27% year on year, and by 30% compared with the start of the year.

Josie Dent, managing economist at the CEBR, also warns that the full financial cost of Covid-19 is still unknown:

Despite the further winter stimulus measures announced by the government, the end of the furlough scheme will save the government money, compared to the months that it has been running. Yet, with unemployment set to rise, benefits claims will increase, offsetting some of the cost savings from the end of furlough. Additionally, with no end to the spread of coronavirus yet in sight, it is likely that the Chancellor will have to continue to stimulate the economy with support for workers and businesses for the foreseeable future.

Today’s data highlight the building fiscal cost of the coronavirus crisis. Yet, with social distancing set to remain in place for at least the next six months, it will be some time before the full impact of the shock becomes clear.

The FT’s Chris Giles says today’s borrowing figures, although historically high, don’t count all the costs of the government’s spending on Covid-19:

The UK’s public finances have continued on a path towards a record peacetime deficit in 2020-21, with the central government borrowing £221.2bn in the first five months of the financial year to combat the coronavirus pandemic.

Although that figure was lower than the Office for Budget Responsibility, the fiscal watchdog, had expected, the official statistics are yet to incorporate expected losses on government-backed loans to companies and £24bn of new spending for the NHS, vaccines and coronavirus testing the Treasury revealed on Thursday.

The £221.2bn central government cash requirement between April and August was 11 times greater than the highest ever cash borrowing figure at this point in the financial year since equivalent records began 36 years ago.

Giles also points out that yesterday’s Winter Economic Plan won’t add much to national borrowing (which is why some critics say that package isn’t enough to prevent job losses).

Today’s UK borrowing figures clearly show the fiscal cost of the Covid-19 pandemic, says Charlie McCurdy, Researcher at the Resolution Foundation:

The fiscal cost of the covid crisis reached £173.7bn by the Summer, and higher borrowing will continue until the crisis is over.

“August’s borrowing largely reflects higher spending to tackle the virus and it’s impact, with over £10bn spent on the retention and self-employment schemes in that month alone. This highlights the scale of the coming hit to family living standards as the Chancellor set out scaled back support yesterday.

“While tax raises will be needed to put the public finances back on a sustainable footing, that is not a task for today. The costs of servicing our debt actually fell in August and is likely to continue to do so in the years ahead.”

Resolution have also produced several charts... one showing borrowing is actually below official forecasts so far this year (but this may not last)....

..and how support for furloughed employees and self-employed workers, and the cut in VAT for hospitality firms, has pushed up borrowing.

But although the national debt is rising sharply, the cost of servicing it remains manageable:

Interestingly, the ONS has lowered down its estimate for UK borrowing in July, by over £11bn, to £15.4bn.

That’s a remarkably large revision, and shows just how difficult it is to track the UK economy through the pandemic.

Here’s Reuters’ take:

British public borrowing rose to £35.920bn in August, a record high for the month though below its peaks earlier in the financial year, as the government dealt with the economic damage from the coronavirus pandemic.

July’s public borrowing figure was revised down by more than £11bn. But borrowing for the first five months of the financial year still rose further to its highest on record at £173.7bn, overtaking the annual total at the peak of the financial crisis.

The most recent forecast from Britain’s Office for Budget Responsibility estimates borrowing for the full financial year will be a record £372bn, equivalent to 18.9% of gross domestic product, a ratio not seen since World War Two.

More here: UK public borrowing surges to fresh record high in August

Britain has already borrowed more than in any previous financial year (at over £173bn since April), as this chart shows:

Andrew Wishard of Capital Economics suspects that the pace of borrowing will slow in the coming months, as fiscal support fades.

In particular, because the furlough scheme is being replaced with the wage-subsidy scheme (in which the Treasury would cover up to 22% of pay for a worker on reduced hours).

Wishard says:

Of course, the government was always expected to borrow a huge sum this year. And borrowing in the year to date is actually 22% below what the OBR projected in July. If that continued, the government would borrow £290bn this year (14% of GDP).

However, after an impressive rebound in Q3, we think the resurgence of the virus and new restrictions will cause GDP to stagnate for the rest of this year, hurting tax revenues....

But with the recovery stuttering and no sign of concern in the gilt market, the government is right to refocus on supporting the economy rather than raising taxes, Wishard adds.

As a proportion of the economy, Britain’s national debt is now its highest level since 1961 (at nearly 102% of GDP).

At that time, Harold Macmillan was prime minister (playing Greece to America’s Rome), and Britain was still paying down the debts run up during the second world war .

August’s borrowing has pushed the UK’s national debt to a new record high of £2,023.9bn.

That’s around 101.9% of gross domestic product (GDP), and £249.5bn more than at the same point last year.

The ONS now estimates UK borrowing could exceed £372bn for the current financial year - twice as much as during the financial crisis.