And finally... here’s our news story about today’s market mayhem:

We’ll be back tomorrow to continue the story... Goodnight! GW

Wall Street is showing a marked reluctance to clamber back off the mat.

As we move into the last 15 minutes of trading, the Dow is still deep in the red - down 2.9% or 797 points at 26,666 points.

What will it take for the markets to recover their nerves?

Guy Foster, head of research at wealth manager Brewin Dolphin, says there are three major uncertainties hanging over investors at the moment.

Namely, the Covid-19 pandemic, next week’s US election, and the need for a new US stimulus package.

And the bad news is that each one might not be resolved quickly.

Foster explains:

• Best estimates are that we are eight to ten weeks away from a time when we can reasonably hope to see a vaccine moving into production.
• Investors are particularly anxious about the risk of a contested election but clearly that risk will remain until at least the 4^th November.
• The hopes of a pre-election stimulus had pretty much receded a few weeks ago despite Speaker Pelosi and President Trump going through the motions of a negotiation. Now the most likely time that a meaningful stimulus can come is inauguration day (20^th January 2021). A decisive election result can help calm nerves.”

Over in Paris, President Macron has imposed a new national lockdown.

The restrictions mean that people can only leave the house to buy essential goods, seek medical attention, or use their daily one-hour allocation of exercise.

But most schools are to remain open, while universities will revert to online teaching and working from home will be generalised.

Visits to care homes will still be allowed, as will funerals, Macron has explained in his national address. More here:

Checking in on Wall Street again...and stocks are still deep in the red.

With less than 90 minutes trading to go, the Dow is down 2.8% or 787 points at 26,676.

Some big name stocks have been hit badly by anxiety over Covid-19, with credit card operator Visa down 4.8%, enterprise software firm Salesforce.com losing 4.5%, construction machinery maker Caterpillar down 4.3% and sports firm Nike off 4.3%.

Anxiety over the economic outlook has wiped more than 5% off the oil price today.

Brent crude has fallen to $39.07 per barrel - its lowest level since the start of October, and nearly the weakest point since June.

Here’s a video clip of today’s market action, from the Wall Street Journal.

David Madden of CMC Markets reminds us that the demise of US stimulus talks also helped to drive the FTSE 100 to a six-month low today.

The failure of Democrats and Republicans to agree a fresh economic package before the election wasn’t entirely unexpected, but it still dampened the mood in the markets.

European stocks have endured a brutal wave of selling today as coronavirus concerns prompted dealers to dump stocks. There is a feeling in the markets that governments are not in control of the pandemic and that is why traders are running scared.

The number of new covid-19 cases is rising at an alarming rate and the increase in the hospitalisation rate is a worry too. Several European countries have announced tougher restrictions this week, including Spain and France. Today, it was reported that Germany will commence a ‘light’ lockdown next week, and that rocked sentiment because Germany was seen to be relatively in control of their situation.

To add to the bearish news, it was the confirmed that there will be no US coronavirus stimulus package agreed upon before the presidential election. The update wasn’t a total shock as hopes were fading recently.

German chancellor Angela Merkel has now confirmed that Germany would be going into a partial lockdown from 2 November after talks with regional leaders.

The measures will apply to the whole country and will be reviewed in two weeks time, Reuters reports.

She told reporters:

“These are tough measures.”

According to Reuters, private gatherings will be limited to 10 people from a maximum of two households. Restaurants, bars, theatres, cinemas, pools and gyms will be shut and concerts cancelled.

Anticipation of such measures triggered today’s market selloff in Frankfurt, of course.

There’s no respite on Wall Street, where the Dow Jones industrial average is still down 3.2%, or 880 points, at 26,583.

That meant the storied index has lost around 1,700 points, or 6%, since the start of this week, and is now wedged at a one-month low.

Laith Khalaf, financial analyst at AJ Bell, says investors have - finally - woken up to the threat of a second wave of Covid-19 infections and deaths.

“It’s surprising it’s taken markets this long to take fright at the second wave of the pandemic, and the havoc it might wreak on the global economy. The writing has been on the wall for several weeks now, but stock markets have had their blinkers on.

“Even the mighty US stock market, which has reached record highs in the face of a global economic slowdown, finds itself in the red. This is a broad sell-off, with almost no stocks in the market making positive ground, which tells us it’s a classic risk-off reflex.

“Until the virus is contained, there can be no clear direction for markets in the short term. We can expect sharp sell offs and relief rallies in line with the ebb and flow of the virus, and the unfolding economic damage it leaves behind.

The latest UK government figures show that a further 310 coronavirus-related deaths were recorded in the last 24 hours, compared with 367 yesterday.

Another 24,701 people have tested positive for the virus.

Alexis Gray, investment strategist at Vanguard, says today’s selloff highlights that “the economic outlook has dimmed”, as Europe faces more Covid-19 curbs.

Gray explains (via the FT):

“We’re facing unprecedented uncertainty and that’s what the market is struggling with.”

Germany’s stock market has now slumped by 12% in little more than a fortnight, amid the sharp jump in Covid-19 cases.

Germany’s stock market could post its biggest one-day loss since the crash of mid-March, points out Reuters.

Reuters is reporting that its sources say talks between Angela Merkel and German state leaders have resulted in an agreement on a partial lockdown with bars and restaurants closing from 2 November – this coming Monday.

Our main Covid-19 liveblog has more details:

The new rules will allow shops to remain open on condition of allowing only one customer per 10 sq metres of space available.

The closure of bars and restaurants will apply until 30 November, the report claims.

In response, the German stock market is now down 4.4% today, an extremely sharp one-day fall.

Peter Garnry, Head of Equity Strategy at Saxo Bank, reckons more ‘short-term pain’ is ahead for the markets,as Europe battles the second wave of the pandemic.

Global equities are in risk-off mode driven by rapidly rising Covid-19 cases in the US and Europe suggesting a violent second wave as winter is approaching.

In Europe, several countries are close to maximum intensive care unit capacity and France is considering a new national lockdown for one month starting on Friday. Germany is tightening its mobility restrictions and overall, it increases the risk of another dip in the European economy.

Oof! After nearly 90 minutes of trading, the Dow Jones industrial average is down 830 points, or 3%.

The S&P 500 (a broader gauge of the US market) and the Nasdaq are also down around 3%, putting Wall Street on track for its worst day since early September.

Panic selling has returned to Wall Street, says Edward Moya of OANDA, and it’s all down to the Covid-19 pandemic.

It is getting very ugly out there and it has nothing to do with the election. COVID-19 anxiety is back as hospital capacity concerns across the northern hemisphere will likely mean lockdowns will firmly be back in place.

Last night felt like it may have been the end of the path towards the return of normalcy. Baseball was able to finish the World Series, albeit in a bubble, but the focus for many fell with the LA Dodger third baseman, Justin Turner getting pulled in the middle of the game due to testing positive for COVID-19. The Dodgers’ World Series title celebration quickly drew scrutiny after Turner joined his teammates and their family’s celebration on the field, possibly becoming a superspreading event. Virus fatigue is growing for many Americans, Europeans too and the pessimism for the stock market is just accelerating as too many regions are unable to contain the virus spread.

Airline stocks today are getting punished after NYC Mayor Bill de Blasio urged city residents to stay put this holiday season, as the number of COVID-19 cases nationwide climbs to its highest level since the start of the pandemic.

Wall Street’s slump has acted like a punch in the solar plexus for European markets.

Germany’s DAX is now down 4% and France’s CAC is down 3.8%, while Britain’s FTSE 100 is now down 183 points or 3.2% at a new six month low.

This has pulled the Europe-wide Stoxx 600 index down by 3.2%, leaving it on track for its worst day since June.

Back in London, the FTSE 100 has just hit a new six-month low - down 163 points or 2.85% at 5,565.

That’s the lowest point since early April, and leaves the Footsie down 26% for the year.

All the recovery since the lockdowns eased in May, and the economy reopened, has been wiped out, as this chart shows:

Wall Street’s selloff is gathering pace, with the Dow Jones industrial average now down 607 points at 26,855 (-2.2%).

That’s a new one-month low (going back to 25th September), and means the Dow is down 6% this year (and over 3% this month).

Boeing is also among the fallers, down 2.2% after posting its fourth quarterly loss in a row - and outlining further job cuts.

Every stock on the Dow Jones industrial average has fallen in early trading, as investors ditch shares in favour of safe havens like cash and government bonds.

Visa are leading the rout, down 4.5%, followed by chemicals firm Dow Inc (-3%) and oil producer Chevron (-2.8%).

Microsoft is also among the fallers (-2.7%) despite smashing Wall Street expectations last night.

Back in the UK, the whole of Nottinghamshire is expected to enter England’s strictest coronavirus restrictions by the end of the week.

My colleague Josh Halliday explains:

It is understood that pubs, bars and other venues will be forced to close across the Midlands county from Friday.

It had been thought that only the city of Nottingham and three other council areas would enter tier 3 this week, but rising infection rates mean this has been expanded to the whole of Nottinghamshire, a region of more than 828,000 people.

The FTSE 100 is heading back to this morning’s lowest points as the City braces for a bumpy Wall Street open.

It’s now down 143 points or 2.5% at 5584, with nearly every stock down.

Asset manager Intermediate Capital Group is now the top faller, down 7% today, followed by property developer British Land (-5.9%), housebuilder Taylor Wimpey (-5.7%) and chemicals producer Johnson Matthey (-5.5%).

The surge in US coronavirus cases in the last week is also weighing on markets.

Nearly 500,000 people have contracted Covid-19 in the United States over the last seven days, according to Johns Hopkins University, with record numbers of new cases and hospitalizations in the Midwest.

Although Donald Trump insists that America is ‘turning the corner’, investors are looking at the crisis in Europe - and getting more nervous.

Art Hogan, chief market strategist at National Securities in New York, says (via Reuters)

“Whether you call it a continuation of the pandemic or a third wave of new case discovery - it is the largest concern,”

“Unless and until we get through this pandemic, it is hard for investors to imagine a better economic time.”

Tin hats may be required on Wall Street today. With 20 minutes until the open, the Dow Jones industrial average is down 600 points, or over 2%, in the futures market.

Oil is weakening too, with US crude down almost 5% at below $37.70 per barrel - a new three-week low.

Economic news: the US trade deficit has narrowed, thanks to a pick-up in exports.

The Commerce Department reports that the gap between the amount of goods bought by Americans, and the amount sold overseas, fell by 4.5% in September.

Exports of goods rose $3.2bn, while in imports fell $0.5bn, trimming the deficit to $79.4bn.

That will boost US GDP in the last quarter. The official figures are due in 24 hours time, and will show America’s economy expanded strongly after its Q2 slump (but will still be smaller than before the pandemic).

Brad Bechtel of Jefferies agrees that US election fears are weighing on the markets, as well as the prospect of new lockdowns in Europe.

France is set to announce further lockdown measures this evening that are not quite full lockdown but definitely severely limiting. Germany’s seem even more strict with more business types slated to go back into a lockdown phase. Both countries contemplating 1 month time horizons to try to get in front of the surging virus case count.

The hospitalization rate probably more critical than the case count but unfortunately that too is rising in Europe as well as in the US.

With 1 week to go to election time the blue wave narrative seems at risk as the race for President and Congress both remain relatively tight and this might be weighing on markets as well. Talk of an 88% chance of Biden win seem misguided with most market participants not only thinking it is far closer than that but also that we may not know definitively until at least a week or more after election day. A recent poll I saw from a sell side institution of their clients had most expecting we are not going to know the result of the election on election day.

Every sector of Europe’s Stoxx 600 index is down today.

Property companies, consumer-focused firms and miners are worst hit by the prospect of tougher Covid-19 restrictions:

Some stocks are still rallying, though, including online grocer Ocado (+2.2%) and online food service Delivery Hero (+4.9%).

Back in Europe, stocks are still being pummelled - keeping the Stoxx 600 index at a five-month low.

Here’s the latest:

• UK’s FTSE 100: down 105 points or 1.8% at 5,623, a six-month low.
• Germany’s DAX: down 393 points or 3.2% at 11,670, a four-month low
• France’s CAC: down 142 points or 3% at 4,589, a five-month low

Joshua Mahony, senior market analyst at IG, has spotted that Germany’s stock market is back in correction territory (the DAX is down over 11% this year).

“Expectations of a fresh bout of restrictions in France and Germany have sparked yet another selloff in Europe, with the DAX entering correction territory once again.

“Mainland European markets are once again at the forefront of a collapse in equity valuations, with a second bout of nationwide lockdowns raising the chance of a double-dip recession.

“While regional action helped alleviate much of the negative market impact in recent months, the sharp ascent in Covid cases throughout Europe clearly calls for more dramatic measures.

“With the DAX slumping into a fresh four-month low, we look to be on our way to finally see the second major collapse in equity prices since the March bottom.

“With expectations that France and Germany seemingly on the cusp of announcing more draconian measures today, we are unsurprisingly seeing pressure on travel stocks in anticipation of further cancellations.

Wall Street’s ‘fear guage’ is also rising today.

The VIX index has jumped 10% today to its highest level since early September. That indicates investors are getting spooked by rising Covid-19 cases and the US election

But it’s still below the levels seen during the market crash seven months ago....

The latest word from Paris is that French president, Emmanuel Macron, is expected to impose a new four-week national lockdown to halt the spread of Covid-19.

My colleague Kim Willsher explains that the details aren’t clear yet, though:

There had been speculation the government would introduce an earlier curfew or partial lockdowns in areas worst hit by Covid-19. However, on Tuesday evening it was widely reported that Macron would announce a four-week national confinement similar to the two-month lockdown imposed in March and April.

The details were a matter of speculation but it was suggested all bars and restaurants across the country would be required to close. It was not clear if all shops would be allowed to remain open or only those selling essential goods, as during the spring lockdown.

BFMTV reported official sources had confirmed that schools and certain public services would remain open, but other reports suggested secondary and high schools would close.

Wall Street is currently on track to open sharply lower, with the Dow Jones industrial average down 1.5% or 423 points in the futures market.

That would take the Dow to a one-month low low.

It has already lost 222 points yesterday, and 650 points on Monday, as election jitters rise.

As well as Covid-19, European stock markets are being weighed down by anxiety over US politics.

Last night, Republicans and Democrats conceded that a stimulus package wouldn’t be agreed before next week’s election - and both blamed each other.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, who had pushed for a $2.2trn package, said the White House had failed “miserably”.

Pelosi explains:

“For a long time now, Congressional Democrats have laid out a strategic plan to crush the virus.

The White House and Mitch McConnell have resisted, and on Sunday, Mark Meadows told us why saying ‘We’re not going to control the pandemic.’

President Trump, though, blamed Pelosi - and promised the best package ever, after the election. He told reporters:

Nancy Pelosi is only interested in bailing out badly-run, crime-ridden Democrat cities and states. That’s all she is interested in. She is not interested in helping the people.”

“After the election, we will get the best stimulus package you have ever seen.

Next shares had now jumped by 4%, despite the wider gloom, after it hiked its profit forecast this morning. Here’s the story:

French consumer confidence has already taken a hit.

Statistics body INSEE reported this morning that households’ confidence in the economic situation has declined slightly this month.

This pulled its consumer confidence index down to 94, from 95 in September -- below the long-term average.

Households said they were less optimistic about their future financial situation, with fewer confident that the standard of living in France will improve in the next twelve months.

Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic adviser at Allianz, tweets that Europe is now paying the price for not doing more to prevent new Covid-19 outbreaks:

For example:....

After 90 minutes of volatile trading, European stock markets are off the lows, but still at their lowest levels in months.

The FTSE 100 is currently down 98 points, or 1.7%, at 5,630 - still the lowest since April.

Germany’s DAX is now down 2.8% at 11,722 points, which would be the lowest close since May.

Multinational companies are being propped up because the pound and euro have both fallen around 0.5% against the US dollar today (to $1.2970 and $1.175 respectively)

UK high street and online retailer Next is bucking today’s selloff, after reporting better-than-expected sales over the last three months.

Full price sales in the third quarter (to 24 October) were 2.8% higher than a year ago, as shoppers refreshed their wardrobes. Next also offered fewer online discounts, as supply constraints at its warehouses meant it could focus on full-price sales.

Next now expects a full-year pre-tax profit of £365m, which is £65m higher than forecast in September [but less than half the £748m achieved last year].

But, it also warned that tougher lockdown rules would hurt its business badly

The biggest single unknown is whether England, Scotland and Northern Ireland will follow Wales’ decision to shut non-essential retail shops. A two week lockdown in England, Scotland and Northern Ireland in November would reduce Retail full price sales by around £57m³ (depending on timing), representing 17% of Retail full price sales and 6% of the Group’s full price sales in the quarter.

We have found no evidence of the virus being transmitted in our stores; nor are we aware of any studies that suggest clothing and homeware retail presents a significant risk of infection.

Shares in Next are up 1.5%.

Covid-19 vaccine anxiety is also hitting the markets today, on top of reports that Boris Johnson is under pressure to impose a new lockdown.

Reuters explains:

London’s FTSE 100 fell to its lowest level in six months on Wednesday as investors took cash off the table on worries of more virus curbs and uncertainty over a coronavirus vaccine, with homebuilders and energy stocks leading the declines....

[The] UK Vaccine Taskforce Chair said on Tuesday that the first generation of vaccines “is likely to be imperfect”, a day after a study found that antibodies against the novel coronavirus declined rapidly in the British population during the summer.

Britain’s FTSE 250 index of smaller, UK-focused companies is also having a morning to forget.

Cinema chain Cineworld is the top faller, down 7% this morning. It has already temporarily closed its outlets in the UK and US, but prolonged lockdowns would intensify its need for fresh funds.

UK pub chain JD Wetherspoons is down 5.7%, with aerospace group Meggitt losing 5.5%.

Travel company Firstgroup and food retailer SSP (which sells baguettes, croissants and coffee at UK railways stations and airports) have both shed 5%, on fears that many UK commuters will be working from home for several months to come.

This has pulled the FTSE 250 down by 1.5%, or 275 points, to 17,310 - the lowest since early October.

The Covid-19 pandemic has also forced London’s Heathrow to relinquish its title as Europe’s busiest airport, to Paris’s Charles de Gaulle.

My colleague Jasper Jolly explains:

The number of passengers passing through Charles de Gaulle has surpassed Heathrow, and the UK airport heavily criticised the government for “slow progress” relative to its rivals in instituting a coronavirus testing regime for passengers.

The aviation industry has focused on a rapid testing regime as the best hope for reviving its fortunes until an effective vaccine is widespread.

Heathrow opened its first rapid testing facility last week for passengers travelling from London to Hong Kong but the absence of reliable test facilities for passengers going elsewhere means many are liable to quarantine periods on arrival in the UK or other countries.

At the end of September, Paris had received 19.27m passengers, edging ahead of Heathrow at 18.97m. Amsterdam’s Schiphol had received 17.6m and Frankfurt was at 16.16m, according to figures provided by Heathrow.

Companies most at risk from a second Covid-19 lockdown are leading the stock markets selloff.

Property companies British Land (-5.5%) and Land Securities (-4.2%) are being hit by concerns that new Covid-19 restrictions will hit demand for offices.

Airline group IAG (which owns British Airways) is down 4.5%, while advertising giant WPP has lost almost 5%. Hotel groups InterContinental (-4.7%) and Whitbread (-4.3%) are also among the top FTSE 100 fallers.

The UK government is also under pressure to consider a new national lockdown, after Covid-19 deaths jumped alarmingly.

Yesterday evening, the number of people killed by coronavirus in the UK passed 60,000, with the daily death toll rising to 367. That means the country has passed the 200-a-day death toll weeks earlier than feared by the government’s chief scientific adviser.

Today’s Daily Telegraph reports that the government’s scientific advisors have warned that the second wave of coronavirus will be more deadly than the first.

They say:

It is understood that the projection – provided by the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) – has led to intense lobbying from Sir Patrick Vallance and other Government advisers for Boris Johnson to take more drastic action.

“It’s going to be worse this time, more deaths,” said one well-placed source. “That is the projection that has been put in front of the Prime Minister, and he is now being put under a lot of pressure to lock down again.”