That’s all from us for today. For more coronavirus updates from around the world, head over to our global live blog. Thanks for following along.

A Birmingham shisha lounge has been closed down for breaching Covid rules just days after it was fined £10,000 for a similar breach.

West Midlands Police said the Kasablanca venue in the Highgate area of the city had more than 150 people inside when officers forced their way in on 24 October.

Police broke open the doors after being refused entry. Earlier this month, the venue was fined when officers gained entry despite staff pulling down the shutters.

In a separate incident, the owner of a venue in Smethwick, West Midlands, has been fined £10,000 after hosting a wedding celebration for more than 70 people.

PA has more on Carlisle’s move to tier 2 restrictions:

The Department of Health and Social Care said the decision came after discussions with local leaders.

“The rate of Covid-19 infections is rising rapidly across the UK,” it said. “The weekly case rate in England stood at 226 people per 100,000 from 18 October to 24 October, up from 100 people per 100,000 for the week 25 September to 1 October. Cases are not evenly spread, with infection rates rising more rapidly in some areas than others.

“In Carlisle, weekly case rates stand at 233 people per 100,000. This increases to 244 per 100,000 in those aged 17-21 and is 206 per 100,000 in the over 60s.”

With coronavirus cases rising across the UK and increasing calls for a national lockdown, what sort of Christmas will even be possible this year is very hard to predict.

In any case, the debate over what Christmas might look like is well under way and my colleague Helen Pidd has rounded up a few options:

Researchers have found that the “eat out to help out” scheme could have contributed to the spread of coronavirus over the summer.

The Treasury has rejected the academic paper saying the discount scheme aimed at helping keep restaurants afloat may have led to thousands of new cases.

Read the full story here:

Some optimism in Liverpool.

Falling coronavirus infection rates in the city have provided a “glimmer of optimism”, public health bosses said.

The Liverpool city region became subject to tier 3 restrictions on 14 October and officials say numbers are moving “in the right direction”, but urged residents not to be complacent.

In the seven days to 25 October, Liverpool had an infection rate of 475.5 cases per 100,000 residents, down from 585.1 for the previous week.

The director of public health for Liverpool, Matt Ashton, said:

It may seem as though it has been all doom and gloom lately, but these latest figures give us a glimmer of optimism.

Seeing a decline in the infection rates indicates that we are on the right path. However, it’s important we’re realistic and know that to get on top of this virus will take time and effort.

We just need to remember to follow the guidelines and if you have symptoms, get tested and self-isolate if you are asked to do so.

From Guardian Sport: Natasha Hunt out of England’s Six Nations finale after positive Covid test.

The number of young people sleeping rough in London has risen to a record high, Sarah Marsh reports.

According to the Combined Homelessness and Information Network (Chain) the number of 16- to 25-year-olds sleeping rough has risen to 368 in 2020, from 250 in the same period last year, an increase of 47%. Young people now make up 11% of the capital’s rough sleepers, a figure charities described as “a historic high”, well above the usually stable 8%.

Full report here:

From the Guardian’s health editor, Sarah Boseley:

The race for a Covid vaccine is reaching a crucial stage, with the glimmer of a possibility that one of the leading contenders will be approved by Christmas.

Hospitals in north-west England are “running out of room at the inn”, with patients queueing for places on wards, a frontline doctor has warned.

The emergency medicine doctor, who wished to remain anonymous, told PA Media that hospitals are facing an “almost impossible” situation as they try to deal with the second wave of the pandemic, winter pressures and the continuation of elective surgery.

During the first wave, patients came to A&E and we gave them care and they went to wards.

This time round it is not that simple. They are arriving in the emergency department but hospital wards are much more full than they were and don’t have free beds.

We are ending up with people in our emergency department way longer than the four-hour national target, queueing, essentially, for beds on wards.

We are starting to see the return of queues on corridors again and patients stuck outside in ambulances.

The doctor, a member of the British Medical Association (BMA) who works for a health trust in the north-west, said hospitals face being overwhelmed if infection rates continue to rise.

She said:

It’s getting more difficult, we are running out of room at the inn.

The doctor described seeing people ignoring restrictions as “terribly disappointing”, but said she thought most of the public were trying to adhere to the rules despite “mixed messages” from the government.

She said:

Help each other and help us. We are all in this together and we have got to get through it together.

The way to do it is to follow the guidance coming from NHS England.

Concerning picture in South Yorkshire where double the number of people have been infected by Covid now than in the first peak.

A statement released by the Sheffield city mayor, Dan Jarvis, stated that over recent weeks there has been a steady rise in the number of patients admitted to hospitals across the area who have tested positive for the disease.

There are now 700 people in hospital with the virus, approaching double the peak of 414 during the first wave of the pandemic in the spring.

Jarvis said:

This, combined with the significant numbers of staff who are isolating or unwell, mean the pressure on our NHS is steadily growing.

NHS staff are working incredibly hard and making great sacrifices to keep us safe, as they have been for eight long months. There has been a lot of planning for a second wave, our hospitals are currently coping, and it’s hoped that the experience gained since March will help keep the death rate lower.

(But) the situation remains precarious, and if Covid cases continue to rise and hospitalisations increase, we risk our hospitals and the people who work in them being overwhelmed. The simple fact is that if we are going to protect our NHS this winter, we all have to do our bit.

More from Birmingham:

Ian Ward, who runs Birmingham city council, responsible for a population of 1.1 million, said:

The circuit-breaker has the best chance in my view of driving rates down and gives the government time to address the serious problems with the Serco test and trace system.

I am not suggesting the government imposes this and just crosses its fingers, it would be an opportunity to put things right and it would buy us valuable time.

Delaying this decision will mean more avoidable deaths and only prolong the economic damage because the current system just doesn’t work.

My view, when it emerged the government had chosen to ignore calls for a circuit-breaker in September, was that if the three-tier system didn’t work then the government would have serious questions to answer.

We’re almost into November and the situation is now much worse.

The government must reconsider its position and agree to a circuit-breaker and put the right support in place for jobs and businesses.

The latest data from test and trace shows that a total of 126,065 tested positive for Covid-19 in the week to 21 October, a 23% increase on the previous increase and the highest weekly number since the programme began at the end of May.

We now need a different approach and we need it immediately.

There have been a further 1,737 cases of Covid-19 diagnosed in Wales, bringing the total number of confirmed cases to 49,571.

Public Health Wales said a further 11 deaths had been reported, with the total rising to 1,859.

Health officials are developing fresh guidance to help people suffering from long Covid recognise and manage the condition.

Around one in 20 people experience symptoms including fatigue, breathlessness, muscle pain and loss of taste and smell for 12 weeks or more after first contracting the virus, a recent study found.

This figure rises to one in 10 people under the age of 50, research by King’s College London revealed.

Other symptoms can include high temperature and psychiatric problems, and different features of the condition may emerge and overlap over time as the illness progresses.

Now the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (Nice) and the Scottish Intercollegiate Guidelines Network (Sign) are looking at which long Covid symptoms should prompt a referral to specialist services.

The Royal College of General Practitioners (RCGP) is also involved, and the guidance is due to be published before the end of the year.

It will look at which drugs and other therapies improve patients’ physical and mental health following an acute case of coronavirus, and how best to deliver long-term recovery and rehabilitation services.

Paul Chrisp, director of the Centre for Guidelines at Nice, said: “This is a new condition and there is still a lot we don’t know about it.

“Our aim is that the post-Covid syndrome guideline will begin by setting best-practice standards of care based on the current evidence but, as our understanding of the condition grows, be adaptable and responsive to new evidence as it emerges.”

Thanks Caroline. Please do continue sending me your stories and tips: nazia.parveen@theguardian.com or follow me on Twitter to send me a DM.

That’s it from me, Caroline Davies. Thanks for your time. Handing back now to my colleague Nazia Parveen.

A travel ban preventing people in areas of the UK with high levels of coronavirus from entering Wales could continue following the country’s firebreak lockdown, the first minister, Mark Drakeford, has said.

I will want to study, over this weekend and into next week, the comparative incidence rates between Wales and parts of England which are under tier 2 and tier 3 restrictions.

The point of asking people in those places not to travel into Wales was because the rate of virus circulation in those places was so much more than it is here and I’m afraid there is still a significant gap between those places and Wales.

If that remains the same, then we will expect to have a similar regime after 9 November as we had prior to 23 October because it just doesn’t make sense to add to the difficulties we already face by the virus being imported from elsewhere.”

With admissions rising, the photojournalist Jonny Weeks returns to University hospital in Coventry to see how it is coping with the start of the second wave.

You can read his report here:

Wales will not return to a “network of local restrictions” when the country’s firebreak lockdown ends on 9 November, the first minister, Mark Drakeford, has confirmed.

“Instead, we will put in place a simple set of national rules that are easier for everyone to understand, to help keep us safe and keep the virus under control,” he said.

Shops, bars, restaurants and gyms will reopen when the lockdown ends.

Pupils will return to schools, places of worship will resume services, and community centres will allow small groups to meet safely indoors.

Drakeford said two schemes are being introduced to support people on low incomes when they are asked to self-isolate due to a positive test, or when asked to do so by contact tracing teams.

These will be a top-up to statutory sick pay for all social care staff, including personal assistants, and a £500 self-isolation support payment for people on low incomes.

Regulations will include a new offence of knowingly giving false information to contact tracers, a new duty to self-isolate, and a duty for employers to ensure they cannot “prevent an employee from following the advice to self-isolate”, Drakeford said.

Christian leaders have written to the Welsh government seeking guarantees that churches will not be forced to close again should further lockdowns be introduced in Wales.

Hi. Caroline Davies here, taking over the blog for a while. You can get in touch on caroline.davies@theguardian.com

Here’s a roundup of what the new figures are showing us:

Cases of coronavirus in England have jumped 47% in one week, according to new data.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) infection survey found cases “continued to rise steeply”, with an average of 51,900 new cases per day of Covid-19 in private homes between 17 and 23 October.

This is up 47% from 35,200 new cases per day for the period from 10 to 16 October, according to the ONS estimates.

Overall, around one in 100 people had Covid-19 over the course of the latest week.

The figures, based on 609,777 swab tests taken whether people have symptoms or not, do not include anyone staying in hospitals, care homes or other institutional settings

The highest rates are in the north-west and Yorkshire and the Humber, the data showed.

Rates also remain high in the north-east, but the ONS said these have now levelled off and “there is now a larger gap with the other two northern regions”.

The lowest rates are in the south-east, south-west and eastern England, while there has been growth in all age groups over the past two weeks.

Katherine Kent, the co-head of analysis for the Covid-19 infection survey, said: “Following the expansion of the ONS infection survey, we are now seeing evidence of increases in Covid-19 infections across the UK.

“In England, infections have continued to rise steeply, with increases in all regions apart from in the north-east, where infections appear to have now levelled off.

“Wales and Northern Ireland have also all seen increased infections, though it is currently too early to see a certain trend in Scotland, where we have been testing for a shorter period.

“When looking at infections across different age groups, rates now seem to be steeply increasing among secondary school children whilst older teenagers and young adults continue to have the highest levels of infection.”

The body representing England’s directors of public health has issued a stinging criticism of the government’s £12bn test and trace system, calling for a major overhaul and that major improvements were “beyond urgent”.

The Association of Directors of Public Health (ADPH) said the current performance of NHS Test and Trace was “unacceptable” and that it was “neither ‘fully operational’ or ‘world-beating’.”

It added: “Given the shortcomings of the current Test and Trace Service, now is the time for a serious conversation about a more human and local system that is closely rooted in the daily lives of people and communities”.

The ADPH represents public health chiefs in local authorities across England who have been calling for months for greater local control of the contact tracing system.
It said there was a “concerning lack of public health expertise” at all levels of the system and that “public trust has been hugely compromised” by its performance.

While there had been improvements in data flow to councils, the ADPH said the information from the national system was “too often delayed, inaccurate or incomplete”

Raising serious concerns with all areas of the system, the body proposed a series of urgent fixes as well as “a more ambitious overhaul” of the programme that would, it said, be needed for “a considerable period, potentially years”.

It added: “The structure of the Test and Trace Service is opaque, and it is unclear where responsibility lies for different functions. As a result, it is challenging to direct requests or concerns to the right part of the system, or engage constructively in finding solutions, and responses are often slow or formulaic.”

Wales’ first minister, Mark Drakeford, has said the country’s latest figures for coronavirus show how “necessary” it was to introduce a two-week “firebreak” lockdown.

Drakeford told a press conference in Cardiff that the rate of Covid-19 in Wales had reached more than 220 cases per 100,000 people.

“In Merthyr Tydfil, the seven-day incidence rate has exceeded 600 cases per 100,000,” Drakeford said.

“Today, a further 1,700 cases of coronavirus will be confirmed but the actual number of infections will be much higher.

“The number of people with coronavirus in hospital is at its highest point since the end of April.”

Drakeford said 1,191 people were in hospital with coronavirus-related symptoms, which is up 20% from the same point last week.

When modelling the level of infection among different age groups, the ONS said older teenagers and young adults continue to have the highest positivity rates, while rates “appear to be steeply increasing among secondary school children”.

There has been growth in all age groups over the past two weeks, the ONS added.

Meanwhile, Delia Smith, not one to shy away from public debate has written an open letter to Boris Johnson, calling on the prime minister to let football fans back into stadiums.

Around one in 20 people in England are unsure of what level of coronavirus restrictions they are living under, according to a survey.

ABOUT 5% of adults said they did not know or were unsure which tier they were in, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

Its survey, conducted between 21 and 25 October, found 48% of adults report being in tier 1, while 37% said they were in tier 2.

Ten per cent said they were living under tier 3 restrictions, although more areas have entered the higher two levels of measures since the survey was carried out.

One in five people will be living under the toughest restrictions from Monday when West Yorkshire moves into tier 3, meaning 58% of the population of England will be living under either tier 2 or 3.

England has been operating under a three-tier system since 12 October, with local areas divided into different restrictions based on the alert level.

The ONS analysed responses from 4,226 adults in Britain to its opinions and lifestyle survey, examining the social impact of coronavirus.

Of those in England, 78% of adults said it was easy or very easy to find out about the alert level in their area, while 2% felt it was difficult or very difficult.

Watching the news on television is said by 57% of respondents to be the best way to source information about local restrictions.

Around 36% consult the NHS Covid-19 app, while 35% refer to online and print news sources.

Just over one in five (22%) use the government website, according to the survey, while 18% rely on word of mouth.

The research found that those living under tier 3 restrictions, the highest alert level, are most likely to avoid physical contact with older and other vulnerable people when outside the home.

Around 85% of respondents in tier 3 said this was the case, compared with 81% of adults in tier 2 and 74% in tier 1.

More than 62,000 deaths involving Covid-19 have now occurred in the UK, new figures show.

A total of 60,070 deaths have so far been registered in the UK where Covid-19 was mentioned on the death certificate, including suspected cases, according to the latest reports from the UK’s statistics agencies.

This includes 979 deaths in Northern Ireland up to October 23 (and registered up to October 28), which were confirmed by the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency on Friday.

Since these statistics were compiled, a further 1,802 deaths are known to have occurred in England, 24 in Scotland, 123 in Wales and 41 in Northern Ireland, according to additional data published on the Government’s coronavirus dashboard.

Together, they total 62,060 deaths involving Covid-19 in the UK.

Our education correspondent, Sally Weale, has spoken with childminders and nursery workers for this piece which predicts that one in six childcare services in England may close by Christmas.

If, like me, you’re struggling to find a good face mask, then have a read of this handy guide:

Senior clinicians at a Lancashire trust say their board has caved into political pressure by making an “unsafe” decision to reopen a small emergency department, having previously suggested this would not happen if there was a second wave of coronavirus.

In a letter to management at Lancashire teaching hospitals foundation trust, seen by the Health Service Journal, a group of 17 emergency medicine consultants have raised serious concerns over the planned reopening of the accident and emergency department at Chorley and South Ribble hospital next week.

The unit, which has long suffered from staffing shortages and temporary closures, was closed on a temporary basis at the start of the pandemic.

When Covid subsided in the summer, plans were put forward to reopen it in the autumn.

However, when announcing this, the chief executive, Karen Partington, said: “It is really important that everybody recognises that if Covid-19 cases begin to rise significantly, or other safety concerns are identified, we will need to revisit the situation.”

The trust has more than 100 Covid-positive patients on its wards, around three-quarters of the number it had during the first peak in April. The wider Lancashire and South Cumbria system has more than 700 Covid-positive patients, which is more than in April.

The trust, which also runs a larger A&E at Royal Preston hospital, has long faced pressure from local politicians to keep the unit open, particularly from the Chorley MP, Lindsay Hoyle, who is the Speaker of the House of Commons. The health and social care secretary, Matt Hancock has also spoken several times of his desire for the unit to re-open, and the pair held a meeting earlier this month after which Hancock confirmed the unit would reopen on 2 November.

The letter from the clinicians, addressed to the trust’s clinical director, Graham Ellis, said: “We consider that the trust has been subjected to an undercurrent of external pressure which has resulted in an unsafe decision being taken to reopen the ED prematurely …

“The timing is almost as poor as it could be. Lancashire is in the midst of a surge in Covid-19 cases, filling both inpatient and critical care beds.

“Infection control policies to protect staff and patients have already resulted in the ED team having to double their clinical footprint on the Royal Preston hospital site; significant numbers of nursing and medical staff are unable for health reasons to work with patients who are potentially infected with Covid-19.

“This greatly restricts our ability to flex staffing to cover sickness and mandatory isolation periods. To expect the same limited senior team to expand to cover a further two clinical areas at Chorley as winter influenza season starts is misguided and dangerous.”

The long-term future of the A&E at Chorley is the subject of a prolonged review of clinical configurations in Lancashire. Earlier this month the trust said it would reopen from 8am to 5pm. An urgent care centre is also provided alongside the unit, which has been maintained throughout the year.

The trust has been contacted for comment.

Nottingham police have warned students they will be punished after dozens of young people in Halloween fancy dress were confronted by officers in the city in the hours before tier 3 rules were implemented at 00:01 on Friday.

The new rules coming into place include a ban on buying alcohol from shops after 9pm.

A maths teacher, Simmy Purwaha, filmed the moment on Thursday night when police had to intervene as dozens of densely packed young people broke social distancing guidelines to dance together on St James Street.

“Mixed with booze it’s a recipe for disaster,” the 25-year-old said.

Before the intervention, police had issued a warning that people who deliberately flouted the rules would be fined.

Purwaha said: “The actual shenanigans started at about 9.55pm when all of the bars let the patrons out at the same time on to a small lane.

“It went on for about 20 minutes before enough police turned up to send people on their way.

“One person was arrested in front of me and another was lying unconscious. They were chanting World Cup football chants, which didn’t make sense as there isn’t any football on.”

In the nearby market square, people were seen posing for photographs dressed as minions from the film Despicable Me and chanting near police vehicles.

Purwaha said he felt students had been “given a hard time” by the government and it was a minority of them who were flouting lockdown rules.

Halloween is a big deal in Scotland, and in particular the tradition of guising – where children wear costumes in order to blend in with the other wandering spirits on the night and perform poems, songs and tricks door-to-door in exchange for a small gift to ward off evil. It merges with the Gaelic festival of Samhain, which is celebrated on the night of 31 October and through 1 November, to mark the end of the harvest and the coming of the winter months.

So the Scottish government’s “stay at home” advice hit hard.

But this morning the streets round my way are full of “ghoulies and ghosties and three-leggity beasties” (as defined in the traditional Scots Halloween prayer) making their way to schools and nurseries, as teaching staff worked brilliantly to save the festival for another year.

Neighbourhoods have also come up with their own ways of marking the change of season. Near where I live, kids have decorated their gardens with spooky figures and parents are handing out bingo cards where visitors can tick off the sights.

Businesses have been displaying carved pumpkins for a trail in Clarkston, south-east of the city, and elsewhere, we’ve seen some beautifully decorated Halloween windows, with Battlefield, in Glasgow’s southside, presenting some spectacular displays.

Update on tiers:

• Tees Valley and the West Midlands are expected to be moved up to tier 3 soon, with local authority sources in the West Midlands saying the “very high” alert level could be imposed “by the end of next week or the start of the following week”.
• Leaders in the Tees Valley said the government had told them it intended to raise their area to tier 3, although no agreement has been reached.
• More than a dozen regions will move from the lowest to the middle tier of restrictions on Saturday. These include the East Riding of Yorkshire, Kingston-Upon-Hull, North East Lincolnshire, North Lincolnshire, Dudley, Staffordshire, Telford, the Wrekin, Amber Valley, Bolsover, Derbyshire Dales, Derby City, South Derbyshire, the whole of High Peak, Charnwood, Luton and Oxford.
• In Scotland, the first minister, Nicola Sturgeon, said a new system of levels of restrictions will come into force at 6am on Monday.
  The central belt, Dundee, Inverclyde and Ayrshire will be placed into level 3; Aberdeenshire, Fife, the Borders, Dumfries and Galloway will be in level 2; and the Highlands and much of the islands will be in level 1.
  

The housing market has experienced a mini boom after the UK-wide coronavirus lockdown, partly fuelled by the government’s temporary cuts to stamp duty, which come to an end in March.

House prices rose in October at the fastest annual rate in almost six years but the UK market is likely to face a “sharp” slowdown when the stamp duty holiday ends, the mortgage lender Nationwide has said.

The average UK house price jumped by 5.8% in October compared with the same month last year, to £227,826, according to the UK’s biggest building society.

Nottinghamshire police said 40 young people are facing fines after a party was broken up at a student hall of residence.

Officers attended a flat in Trinity Square shortly before 11.15pm on Wednesday after details of the party were shared on social media, the force said.

Police said they took the details of the attendees who each face a fixed penalty fine of £200.

The organisers of the party face a fine of £10,000 for setting up an inside gathering of more than 30 people.

The force said a bag of cocaine and a PA system were seized from the property.

Speaking after the party was broken up, Assistant Chief Constable Kate Meynell, of Nottinghamshire police, said: “We take that responsibility very seriously and we will continue to take action against people who wilfully break the rules in this way. It is perfectly clear that these kind of gatherings are not allowed and there really is no excuse for what we saw last night.

“This pandemic is a serious risk to public health. Cases are rising fast and more people are getting seriously ill as a result.

“We expect people to follow and obey the law and hope that this latest incident serves as a warning to others – that if you do break the rules in this way you will be caught and you will be punished.”

Nottinghamshire entered tier 3 on Friday morning.

A study has found a coronavirus strain from Spain accounts for most UK cases, with holidaymakers playing a key role in spreading the variant that originated in Spanish farm workers across Europe.

The variant, called 20A.EU1, is known to have spread from farm workers to local populations in Spain in June and July, with people returning from holiday in Spain at that time most likely playing a key role in spreading the strain across Europe.

However, experts behind the study, which has not yet been peer reviewed in a medical journal, said there was currently no evidence that the strain spread faster than other strains of coronavirus. There is also no suggestion that the strain causes more severe disease, or would affect how a vaccine works.

As Scotland gets to grips with the new 5-level system for Covid controls, which were announced across the country’s 32 local authorities yesterday, local leaders are raising concerns about the impact of travel restrictions in particular.

Glasgow Chamber of Commerce is worried that the new guidelines, which state that people should not leave their local authority area except for essential purposes, will hit businesses relying on an influx of Christmas shoppers from across the country.

The chief executive, Stuart Patrick, said: “Have they considered the damaging impact this will have on Glasgow city centre retail businesses as Christmas season approaches, and we have no festive shoppers allowed from any other tier 3 area - when that effectively means the whole of the Glasgow city region?”

In Aberdeen, the council and business leaders wrote to Nicola Sturgeon urging her to downgrade city restrictions in level 1 “at the nearest possible review point”, arguing that economic harm should be seen as a “significant factor” in decision-making after the summer lockdown badly affected the city, where unemployment has more than doubled since March.

Sturgeon tweeted that she understood the desire for speedier progress but that the country was at a crucial moment where compliance was vital.

Highland councillors continue to press for indoor socialising to be allowed at their level (1), pointing to the extreme difficulty of outdoor meetings in harsh winter weather and the impact of rural isolation on mental health.

The foreign secretary, Dominic Raab, has refused to deny that ministers are considering introducing a fourth tier of coronavirus restrictions in England, less than three weeks after the launch of the three-tier model.

Officials are reportedly drawing up plans for an extra layer of measures that would force restaurants and non-essential shops to close in parts of England with the highest infection rates.

Asked whether a tier 4 was being considered, Raab told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme on Friday: “We’re always ready for further measures that we can take. But I think the most important thing about further measures is that we continue on the track we’re on of targeting the virus.”

Ministers are under increasing pressure to announce a nationwide “circuit breaker” lockdown as hospital admissions in badly hit parts of the country exceed the height of the first wave.

Raab, who is effectively Boris Johnson’s number two, insisted the “overwhelming scientific advice” to the government was that local lockdowns “are the right way to go”.

He said the government was “striving to avoid” a second national lockdown despite France, Germany and Wales announcing similar nationwide measures in recent days.

He told Sky News that the idea of “a short, sharp circuit breaker is frankly something of an enigma” and that those calling for one had not set out the exit route from such an intervention.

The government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) advised five weeks ago that the government should urgently consider a nationwide two-week lockdown – similar to that in spring but keeping most schools open – but this was ignored.

Raab claimed on the Today programme that “the overwhelming scientific advice to us is [that] targeted measures are the right way to go if you take them and you’re committed to them”.

He added: “The arbitrariness of a blanket approach would be far worse than the effects of trying to be as targeted as possible” and a localised approach was “fair” and “fits the natural justice that we’re focusing on the areas where the uptick is the greatest”.

The Covid-19 second wave is pushing the UK to the brink of double-dip recession, our economics correspondent Richard Partington reports.

The government will close the furlough scheme this weekend, with redundancies rising at the fastest rate on record and the second wave of Covid-19 pushing Britain’s economy to the brink of a double-dip recession, according to a Guardian analysis.

As the chancellor, Rishi Sunak, prepares to end the multibillion-pound coronavirus job retention scheme and launch a less generous replacement programme, early warning indicators show business activity faltering as local lockdowns take effect.

Read more below

Morning, I will be leading you through today’s coronavirus updates. As ever, please do send your tips and stories to nazia.parveen@theguardian.com or follow me on Twitter to send me a DM.