Kalyeena Makortoff 

Stocks hit by investor caution as Covid vaccine excitement fades – as it happened

Rolling coverage of the latest business and markets news, as rising Covid cases overshadowed enthusiasm for a vaccine
  
  

People passing by a sign asking for help to beat Covid-19 in Halifax, West Yorkshire.
People passing by a sign asking for help to beat Covid-19 in Halifax, West Yorkshire. Photograph: Christopher Thomond/The Guardian

Closing summary

  • European stock markets were mostly trading higher by Friday afternoon, after plunging into the red at the start of trading as excitement over a Covid vaccine waned
  • The FTSE 100 remained the only outlier on Friday afternoon, trading around 0.2% lower, primarily due to a stronger pound. However, the London stock market is still heading for its best week since April
  • US stocks opened higher - with the S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq each up around 0.8%. Wall Street was bouyed in part by Edison’s projection of Joe Biden’s win in Arizona, helping cement his presidential election win
  • Eurozone GDP rose 12.6% in the three months to September, according to the second estimate of quarterly economic data. That was slightly lower than the first estimate of a 12.7%
  • The US producer price index (PPI) for October rose 0.5% year-on-year. That is higher than economist expectations for a 0.4% rise
  • The Bank of England penned a letter to insurance executives this morning, warning they may have been “optimistic” when estimating their Covid-related losses
  • Meanwhile, the Financial Conduct Authority warned it may publicly censure Carillion and said certain former executives for acting “recklessly” ahed of the company’s collapse
  • And US regulator the Securities and Exchange Commission charged the ex-Wells Fargo chief executive John Stumpf for his role in misleading investors about the success of its core business. He’s agreed to pay $2.5m to settle the charges.

That’s all from the business live blog today. Have a good weekend and stay safe. –KM

Note: This post has been amended to clarify that the FCA has only issued warnings to certain former Carillion executives. The potential censure only applies to Carillion, the company.

Updated

US regulator the Securities and Exchange Commission has charged the ex-Wells Fargo chief executive John Stumpf for his role in misleading investors about the success of its core business.

He’s agreed to pay $2.5m to settle the charges.

The SEC said Stumpf signed and backed official regulatory statements which he should have known were misleading, due to the Community Bank’s cross-selling strategy which inflated its performance.

It links back to the banks’ account fraud scandal, which saw the bank create millions of fraudulent savings and current accounts on behalf of Wells Fargo clients, often without their consent.

Community banking chief Carrie Tolstdt has also been charged, and those charges are set to be dealt with in court.

US stocks open higher

Wall Street is open for trading and stocks are broadly higher:

  • S&P 500 is up 0.7% or 25 points at 3,562 points
  • Dow is up 0.7% or 213 points at 29,293 points
  • Nasdaq is up 89.53 points at 11,799 points

The FCA is not getting much applause for its proposed censure of Carillion and its warning to executives- at least not from Prem Sikka, professor of accounting at the University of Sheffield and emeritus professor at the University of Essex:

Note: This post has been amended to clarify that the FCA has only issued warnings to certain former Carillion executives. The potential censure only applies to Carillion, the company.

Updated

DATA FLASH: The US producer price index (PPI) for October rose 0.5% year-on-year.

That is higher than economist expectations for a 0.4% rise.

Core PPI, excluding food and energy, came in at 1.1% on an annual basis, slightly lower than forecasts for a 1.2% rise.

Despite a pullback today, the London stock market is heading for its best week since April amid rising hopes that a coronavirus vaccine can trigger a faster economic revival from the pandemic than first anticipated.

The FTSE 100 index of leading UK company shares is on track to end the week more than 300 points higher, a rise of almost 7%, despite a modest sell-off on Friday as City investors bet it would still take time to deploy the vaccine and for Britain’s economy to stage a full recovery.

Financial markets around the world have soared since Pfizer/BioNTech announced earlier this week that its Covid vaccine was 90% effective in protecting people from transmission of the virus in global trials. Russia also said on Wednesday that its own candidate, Sputnik V, had shown in trials it could cut the likelihood of catching the disease by 92%.

However, the continued rapid spread of the virus and the start of tougher lockdown restrictions has limited gains in stock markets as the second wave of Covid inflicts a heavy toll on the global economy.

Shares in the blue-chip London index were down by 0.5% on Friday lunchtime to trade at about 6,300, as optimism earlier this week was tempered by the prospect of a difficult winter before a vaccine becomes widely available.


BREAKING: Spanish bank Santander is set to cut 4,000 jobs in Spain and cut around 1,000 branches.

That’s according to Reuters, citing local news agency EFE.

There doesn’t seem to be any suggestion that job cuts will extend to UK operations but we’ll update you if we learn more.

Prime minister Boris Johnson’s spokesman has confirmed that Brexit talks will be paused over the weekend but will resume in Brussels net week, according to Reuters.

The spokesman added that familiar differences remain in EU trade talks over a level playing field and fisheries.

As my colleague Daniel Boffey explains, Brexit talks have been deadlocked over two main issues: future EU access to UK fishing waters and the “level playing field” provisions to ensure neither side can achieve a competitive advantage through lowering regulatory standards or subsidising failing businesses.

Tesco has apologised after its grocery website was overwhelmed with shoppers trying to book delivery slots for Christmas.

Customers complained they had been forced to join an online queue for hours after it opened bookings for Christmas week for shoppers signed up to Tesco’s Delivery Pass subscription service.

The retailer said it had also paused sign-ups to the Delivery Pass service “to help support our existing and vulnerable customers because of the high demand for online slots.”

Messages on Tesco’s official Twitter account told shoppers the website had suffered from a “technical issue” which it was trying to fix.

“We’re sorry if things take a bit longer than usual,” Tesco said. “We’re experiencing a huge volume of customers who are trying to book a slot at the moment,” it said.

Time to check back in on stocks markets, which are mixed across Europe.

While major continental indices are still managing to trade in positive territory, the FTSE 100 and FTSE 250 are down -0.5% and -0.4%, respectively.

US futures are still in positive territory, with the S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq futures each up by more than 0.7%.

David Madden, a market analyst at CMC Markets UK, says:

Equity markets started off in the red this morning but they have been driving higher recently and most European indices are in positive territory.

The rebound in sentiment seems a bit strange seeing as the number of new coronavirus cases in the UK, Germany and Italy are worrying. France is committed to maintaining its lockdown in the near term and so is the UK.

The health crisis is becoming more of a serious issue in the US too as cities like New York and Chicago could be in for stricter restrictions. The pandemic might not have the same negative impact on equities that it used to, seeing as there has been great progress made with respect to the drug that Pfizer and BioNTech are developing.

At the same time, dealers need to be mindful that the potential Covid-19 vaccine might not get approval, and even if it does, the roll out process will probably be timely.

Strong figures have been released by the food delivery arm of Uber.

Uber Eats recorded around 32 million food delivery trips in the three months to September 30, the company said.

That compares to 12.5 million delivery trips during the same period in 2019.

Updated

FCA issues warning to 'reckless' Carillion executives

The Financial Conduct Authority has warned it may publicly censure Carillion and issued warnings to certain former executives for acting “recklessly” ahead of the company’s collapse.

They made misleadingly positive statements about Carillion’s financial performance generally and in relation to its UK construction business in particular, which did not reflect significant deteriorations in the expected financial performance of that business and the increasing financial risks associated with it.

The City regulator’s warning notice also says that Carillion’s systems, procedures and controls were not robust enough to ensure that its contracts were properly recorded and reported.

The outsourcing giant collapsed in early 2018 after many of its major contracts proved much less lucrative than it thought. The stretched firms had been bidding for contracts with narrow margins in a bid to stay competitive and eventually went into liquidation with just £29m in the bank.

The FCA said at key times, certain executives were “each aware of the deteriorating expected financial performance within the UK construction business and the increasing financial risks associated with it.”

The FCA considers that Carillion and the relevant executive directors acted recklessly in relation to the above matters.

The FCA issued the warning notices in mid-September, but this is the first that those warnings have been made public. Former executives still have a chance to challenge its proposals (though the warning letter does not make clear which executives are at risk).

Note: This post has been amended to clarify that the FCA has only issued warnings to certain former Carillion executives. The potential censure only applies to Carillion, the company.

Updated

The Bank of England has written to insurance executives this morning, warning they may have been “optimistic” when estimating their Covid-related losses.

Our work has highlighted that a number of firms have not been able to accurately identify and track Covid exposed policies, leading to unexpected Covid losses.

Firms should ensure that this uncertainty is reflected in the reserve estimates and that, where possible, appropriate procedures are put in place to identify and track exposed policies.

The central bank’s regulatory arm, the Prudential Regulation Authority, said it would be approaching insurers in the “coming months” to make sure firms are actively addressing any shortfalls.

The PRA have written a letter to insurance executives about how they are addressing the growing risks of Covid-19.

The 12.6% rise in eurozone GDP is still a record high for quarterly growth, despite its downward revision, according to Eurostat:

These were by far the sharpest increases observed since time series started in 1995, and a rebound compared with the second quarter of 2020, when GDP had decreased by 11.8% in the euro area and by 11.4% in the EU.

Eurozone employment was up 0.9% on on a quarterly basis in Q3, according to Eurostat.

However, on an annual basis, employment was still 2% lower in the three months to September, compared to the same period last year.

Eurozone GDP revised down slightly to 12.6% for Q3

DATA FLASH: Eurozone GDP rose 12.6% in the three months to September, according to the second estimate of quarterly economic data.

That is slightly lower than the first estimate of a 12.7%.

On an annual basis, eurozone GDP fell 4.4%, which is slightly worse than initial estimates of a 4.3% drop.

Investors seem to be buying on the dip, which is helping European stocks reverse losses less than two hours into trading.

US futures have also been helped by Edison’s projection of Joe Biden’s win in Arizona, helping cement his presidential election win.

Here is how futures are looking on Wall Street:

  • S&P 500 futures are up 0.8%
  • Dow futures are up 0.7%
  • Nasdaq futures are up 0.7%

Brexit jitters and the power struggle at 10 Downing Street are also weighing on global stock markets this morning.

As Susannah Streeter, senior investment and markets analyst at Hargeaves Lansdown, explains:

The wave of optimism which washed over the financial markets has begun to ebb away as anxieties over a Brexit deal take hold once again....The expected departure of two of Boris Johnson’s top advisors has added to the cloud of uncertainty which has been gathering over concerns trade negotiations could be heading for fresh deadlock.

The pound has already steadily gained ground earlier in the week, boosted by the Pfizer announcement but has slipped back to below 1.12 against the euro, reflecting the dawning realisation that there will be no quick fix to the pandemic.

Sterling is ticking up slowly again this morning, but there is a distinct lack of momentum as traders await the latest twist in the Brexit saga.

The clock is ticking on a Brexit deal with a summit of EU leaders on 19 November now seen in Brussels as the final deadline for a draft Brexit deal. Though, unsurprisingly, negotiations are expected to go to the wire.

If you’re looking for some escape from the doom and gloom of the markets, my colleague Sarah Butler has the inside tale on John Lewis’ new Christmas advert (yep, it’s that time of year already).

Over the past decade the retailer’s festive ad has become a big annual TV moment that kicks off the Christmas shopping season.

Its campaigns – from the Hare and the Bear in 2013 to Monty the Penguin in 2014 and last year’s Excitable Edgar the dinosaur – have specialised in heart-warming tales of cute characters to part shoppers from their cash in the department store. And they have been viewed millions of times online.

But 2020 has been a different year. So different, according to the retailer, that they even toyed with abandoning a Christmas campaign altogether.

Instead it has come up with a pandemic theme of kindness and giving to charity, rather than giving presents, but still with appealing animals, children and snowmen.

The two-minute ad, which will be aired online from Friday morning and then debut on TV during ITV’s The Voice on Saturday, is being used to promote a Give a Little Love charity campaign. It aims to raise £5m over Christmas to help 100,000 families through food redistribution charity FareShare and Home-Start and other charities chosen locally by stores.

Oil prices have also tumbled this morning amid fears that rising Covid cases will continue to hold back an economic recovery, including fuel demand.

Traders are still gloomy after the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned yesterday that global oil demand is unlikely to recover from any Covid vaccine until further into 2021.

Brent crude is down 1.3% at around $42.96 while WTI is down 1.6% at $40.45 per barrel.

However, both benchmarks are still on course for their second weekly gain of around 9%.

We’ve now got a print for Germany’s Dax which is down 0.1% at the open.

As expected, European stocks have fallen into the red at the start of trading:

  • FTSE 100 is down 0.7%
  • France’s Cac 40 is down 0.2%
  • Spain’s Ibex is down 0.5%

Introduction: Stocks fall as vaccine excitement wanes

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.

Excitement over a Covid-19 vaccine is fading fast, with investors betting that things are likely to get worse before they get better.

Following an eight-day rally, stocks started to pull back on Thursday and are set to suffer another drop during’s Friday session, following another surge in coronavirus cases.

On Thursday, the UK recorded 33,470 further coronavirus cases - a new daily record – which was 10,000 more than a day earlier. Across the pond, New York is considering the possible school closures, and Chicago has issued a stay-at-home notice for 30 days.

Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets UK, says:

With the worst of the cold weather yet to arrive and the pace of new infections only expected to increase as we head towards year end, it is slowly becoming apparent that the arrival of a vaccine can’t come soon enough.

It is also quite apparent that even if one was to arrive in the near future it wouldn’t be able to change the situation on the ground as it is now, which means things are only likely to get worse before they get better.

That pessimism dragged down stocks on Wall Street, where the Dow and S&P 500 both fell by around 1%, while the Nasdaq closed 0.6% lower.

Asian stocks are also in the red, with the Shanghai Composite down 0.8%, the Hang Seng down 0.4% and Japan’s Nikkei down 0.5%.

Europe is expected to follow suit:

We’re light on the data front today, but we are expecting the second reading for third quarter Eurozone GDP, which is expected to be confirmed at 12.7%.

Stay tuned.

The agenda

  • 10.00am GMT: Eurozone Q3 GDP (second estimate)
  • 1.30pm GMT: US producer price index (PPI) for October

Updated

 

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